Travelsky Technology (696 HK) Travel Sky T Echnol Ogy
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
China Information Technology 17 December 2015 TravelSky Technology (696 HK) Travel Sky T echnol ogy Target price: HKD13.50 (from HKD13.50) Share price (16 Dec): HKD13.58 | Up/downside: -0.5% Time to take a breather We see the stock as fairly valued at the current level Kelvin Lau (852) 2848 4467 But, we remain positive on the long-term outlook for the company [email protected] Downgrading to Hold (3); keeping target price at HKD13.50 What's new: We downgrade our rating on TravelSky to Hold (3), from Buy Forecast revisions (%) (1), as we believe the shares are fairly valued, having rallied by 32% in the Year to 31 Dec 15E 16E 17E past 3 months. While we remain positive on the long-term fundamental Revenue change (0.6) (1.0) (1.4) Net profit change (1.6) (1.4) (0.9) outlook for TravelSky, we recommend that investors await a better entry Core EPS (FD) change (1.6) (1.4) (0.9) point. Source: Daiwa forecasts What's the impact: Valuation on par with peers. The stock is trading Share price performance currently at a 2016E PER of 21x, on par with global peers such as (HKD) (%) Amadeus and Sabre (both not rated) and, in our view, is fairly valued. On 16 180 the one hand, we believe TravelSky merits a premium to its past-3-year 14 158 average PER of 13x, given the improving margin trend that we expect to 12 135 9 113 kick off in 2015. On the other hand, we not do not expect the stock to trade 7 90 at a premium to its global peers (currently at 2016E PER of 21x on Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 consensus forecasts), as we forecast it to see an earnings CAGR of 15% Travelsky (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) for 2015-17E, which is better than the consensus forecast of a 10% CAGR for Amadeus, but well below the 42% CAGR forecast for Sabre. 12-month range 7.74-15.56 Market cap (USDbn) 5.12 Long-term positive. We remain upbeat on the long-term outlook for 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 11.09 TravelSky and highlight several potential share-price catalysts in the Shares outstanding (m) 2,926 Major shareholder China TravelSky Hldg Co (29.3%) coming years, including: 1) a possible ASP increase due to additional IT services offered to China airlines as a result of its new-generation system Financial summary (CNY) (which had a trial launch in 2015 and should ensure that TravelSky sees a Year to 31 Dec 15E 16E 17E smaller increase in staff expenses over our forecast horizon compared with Revenue (m) 5,616 6,232 6,919 prior years), 2) the monetisation and/or acceptance of strategic investment Operating profit (m) 1,396 1,616 1,864 Net profit (m) 1,359 1,575 1,808 in the mobile app, Umetrip, and 3) the provision of Big Data services. Also, Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.464 0.538 0.618 we think China’s ongoing SOE reforms, including changes to management EPS change (%) 13.1 15.9 14.8 incentives, will help sharpen the company’s commercial instincts in the long Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (10.7) (4.7) 1.3 term. Incorporating the most recent book data (YTD October), we revise PER (x) 24.4 21.1 18.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.8 1.6 1.9 down our traffic-booking volume growth forecast to 10.8-11.0% YoY for DPS 0.201 0.183 0.210 2015-17E (previously 11.7-12.0% YoY) and, in turn, 2015-17E EPS by 1- PBR (x) 2.8 2.6 2.4 2%. EV/EBITDA (x) 16.0 14.3 11.9 ROE (%) 12.4 13.0 13.6 What we recommend: We downgrade our rating to Hold (3), from Buy (1), Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts as the current share price is close to our DCF-based TP of HKD13.50, and we foresee no imminent share-price catalysts. The key downside and upside risks to our call would be lower-or-higher-than-expected booking growth. How we differ: The Bloomberg consensus earnings forecasts comprise only 2 sets of forecasts, and hence the variance between Daiwa’s numbers and the market’s is not particularly meaningful. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 15 TravelSky Technology (696 HK): 17 December 2015 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook TravelSky: net profit forecasts We forecast TravelSky to see net profit growth of 13-16% (CNYm) YoY for 2015-17E, driven mainly by growth in China 2,000 20% aviation, for which we forecast 11% YoY growth in the 15% booking volume, driven by strong outbound traffic. Also, we 1,500 forecast the company’s EBIT margin to widen from 24% in 10% 1,000 2014 to 27% in 2017E due to the planned launch in 2017 5% of its next-generation system, which we expect to slow the 500 rise in staff expenses and related charges relative to the 0% past 3 years. 0 (5%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Net profit (LHS) YoY Growth (RHS) Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Valuation TravelSky: 1-year forward PER (x) We find the stock is currently trading at a 2016E PER of (PER) 21x, above its past 3-year average and on par with global 25 peers such as Amadeus and Sabre. We can see grounds for the stock to trade a premium to its past average, given 20 that we expect 2015 to herald the start of a margin 15 improvement trend in contrast to the deteriorating trend of the past 3 years. But, if we compare TravelSky with its 10 peers on net profit growth, ROE and net gearing for 2015- 17E, we believe it should trade only in line with those 5 stocks (currently at 2016E PER multiple of 21x, on Jul-15 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Nov-13 Sep-14 Nov-14 Sep-15 Nov-15 May-13 May-14 May-15 Bloomberg consensus forecasts). May-12 PER: +1 SD Average PER -1 SD Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Earnings revisions TravelSky: Bloomberg consensus EPS forecast revisions On 2015-16E EPS, our forecasts are below those of the (CNY) consensus, likely because we exclude government 0.55 subsidies that we consider to be one-off in nature. We do 0.50 not expect the government subsidies to remain in place 0.45 beyond 2016. 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 Jul-14 Jul-15 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Jan-14 Jun-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Feb-14 Mar-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 Aug-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 May-14 May-15 2015E 2016E Source: Bloomberg 2 TravelSky Technology (696 HK): 17 December 2015 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Overall passenger booking growth (%) 17.2 9.2 8.9 10.5 10.7 11.0 10.8 10.8 Domestic passenger booking growth 15.5 8.6 7.8 10.3 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.0 (%) Int'l passenger booking growth (%) 28.4 12.8 15.3 11.9 16.2 16.1 14.7 14.5 Foreign airlines passenger booking 29.6 15.5 27.5 6.8 11.3 11.0 11.0 10.0 growth (%) PRC airlines' int'l passenger booking 27.9 11.8 10.8 14.0 18.2 18.0 16.0 16.0 growth (%) Profit and loss (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Aviation information technology 2,083 2,259 2,436 2,582 2,854 3,106 3,373 3,663 services Accounting, settlement and clearing 296 380 430 431 432 477 520 565 Other Revenue 566 899 1,091 1,465 2,029 2,034 2,340 2,691 Total Revenue 2,945 3,538 3,956 4,479 5,315 5,616 6,232 6,919 Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 COGS (1,160) (1,497) (1,916) (2,403) (3,039) (3,009) (3,239) (3,472) SG&A (393) (452) (491) (461) (574) (701) (816) (949) Other op.expenses (404) (406) (331) (381) (447) (511) (561) (633) Operating profit 988 1,182 1,218 1,234 1,255 1,396 1,616 1,864 Net-interest inc./(exp.) 39 64 49 64 131 144 158 174 Assoc/forex/extraord./others 20 37 38 15 519 430 22 23 Pre-tax profit 1,047 1,283 1,304 1,312 1,905 1,970 1,796 2,062 Tax (130) (208) (142) (73) (213) (197) (180) (206) Min. int./pref. div./others (22) (28) (30) (34) (39) (45) (41) (47) Net profit (reported) 894 1,047 1,133 1,206 1,653 1,728 1,575 1,808 Net profit (adjusted) 894 1,047 1,133 1,128 1,202 1,359 1,575 1,808 EPS (reported)(CNY) 0.306 0.358 0.387 0.412 0.565 0.591 0.538 0.618 EPS (adjusted)(CNY) 0.306 0.358 0.387 0.385 0.411 0.464 0.538 0.618 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(CNY) 0.306 0.358 0.387 0.385 0.411 0.464 0.538 0.618 DPS (CNY) 0.105 0.120 0.133 0.140 0.133 0.201 0.183 0.210 EBIT 988 1,182 1,218 1,234 1,255 1,396 1,616 1,864 EBITDA 1,446 1,686 1,549 1,614 1,702 1,907 2,177 2,497 Cash flow (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Profit before tax 1,047 1,283 1,304 1,312 1,905 1,970 1,796 2,062 Depreciation and amortisation 359 354 279 328 394 458 508 581 Tax paid (143) (135) (249) (84) (149) (197) (180) (206) Change in working capital 54 (169) (570) 218 (233) 36 108 119 Other operational CF items (14) (14) (67) (30) (39) (108) (124) (142) Cash flow from operations 1,303 1,319 697 1,744 1,878 2,159 2,108 2,413 Capex (2,345) (212) (363) (979) (964) (2,274) (2,348) (600) Net (acquisitions)/disposals 565 (354) 1,058 (100) (130) 249 249 249 Other investing CF items 66 (444) (181) 335 (720) (99) (83) (68) Cash flow from investing (1,715) (1,010) 514 (745) (1,814) (2,124) (2,183) (419) Change in debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid (243) (316) (358) (398) (418) (397) (595) (543) Other financing CF items 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from financing (243) (316) (358) (391) (418) (397) (595) (543) Forex effect/others (2,522) (1,742) (2,461) (1,087) (1,511) (1,263) (1,263) (1,263) Change in cash (3,177) (1,748) (1,608) (479) (1,865) (1,625) (1,933) 188 Free cash flow (1,041) 1,107 334 764 914 (115) (240) 1,813 Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts 3 TravelSky Technology (696 HK): 17 December 2015 Financial summary continued … Balance sheet (CNYm) As at 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Cash & short-term investment 2,638 2,983 2,771 3,481 3,258 2,896 2,227 3,678 Inventory 8