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Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery Systems: Introduction to the Problem

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Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery Systems: Introduction to the Problem WMD Nonproliferation Regimes: Current Threats and Challenges Dr. Vladimir Orlov Special Advisor PIR Center MGIMO University Governance and Global Affairs M.A. MA in Nonproliferation Studies Moscow, 2018 [email protected] Lecture 8 Current Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime Key Problems for the Nuclear Nonproliferation 1. Nuclear disarmament process is too slow; and new Treaty on Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons potentially damages or challenges the integrity of the NPT 2. No progress with the Zone Free of Nuclear and Other WMD in the Middle East 3. DPRK is still outside the regime 4. India, Pakistan and Israel decline to joint the NPT 5. JCPOA with Iran is under threat of failure 6. Multilateral diplomacy fails to address key nuclear disarmament and proliferation concerns 7. Nuclear and missile technology proliferation networks have become a part of new reality; 8. Non-state actors seek access to nuclear weapons and nuclear materials Dr. Vladimir Orlov MEASURES ON STRENGTHENING THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION REGIME IN 2018-2020 KEY CHALLENGES Difficulties with the implementation Disturbance of strategic stability and universalization of the NPT Lack of progress towards Decreasing of effectiveness of the establishing a WMD-free zone in mechanisms of multilateral diplomacy the Middle East Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and nuclear test (opened for signature in 1996) seismic radionuclide hydroacoustic infrasound Dr. Vladimir Orlov CTBT Annex 2 States (States whose signature and ratification are required for the Treaty to enter into force) Algeria Democratic People's Israel Russian Federation Argentina Republic of Korea Italy Slovakia Australia Democratic Republic Japan South Africa Austria of Congo Mexico Spain Bangladesh Egypt Netherlands Sweden Belgium Finland Norway Switzerland Brazil France Pakistan Turkey Bulgaria Germany Peru Ukraine Canada Hungary Poland United Kingdom United States of Chile India Republic of China Korea America Indonesia Colombia Romania Viet Nam Islamic Republic of Iran Dr. Vladimir Orlov Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty «[To] achieve a global ban on nuclear testing, my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. After more than five decades of talks, it is time for the testing of nuclear weapons to finally be banned» Barack Obama Prague Speech (April 9, 2009) Dr. Vladimir Orlov Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FCMT) «A necessary condition for the «If efforts to start negotiations success of FMCT negotiations is in the CD continue to stall, then carrying them out within the those governments that wish Conference on Disarmament, to negotiate an FMCT will have and not anywhere else. That is to consider other options for the only way to ensure the moving this process forward» participations of all key actors» Rose Gottemoeller US Deputy State Secretary Sergey Lavrov October 5, 2010 Russian Foreign Minister March 1, 2011 Dr. Vladimir Orlov Difficulties with the implementation and universalization of the NPT In the case of withdrawal from the NPT, any nuclear materials and/or equipment received must be returned or placed under life-long unconditional IAEA safeguards Example of Pakistan should be used for involving India as an observer in CTBTO Preparatory Commission and continue the dialog with both countries concerning signing and ratifying the CTBT There is a need to reach an interim agreement on DPRK's nuclear program: lifting of sanctions, international aid, and security assurances, should be exchanged for DPRK freezing its nuclear and missile programs All parties must implement the JCPOA in a spirit of good will, using all available mechanisms contained in the agreement to resolve any differences in the framework of Iran agreement 6 Steps towards further Nuclear Disarmament: 1. Nuclear-weapon states accept the commitments not to increase their nuclear stockpiles 2. Nuclear-weapon states renounce the onshore deployment of nuclear weapons beyond their national borders 3. Nuclear-weapon states renounce the development of new types of nuclear weapons 4. All nuclear-weapon states together must start to work on a Treaty for non-orbiting and non-deployment of nuclear weapons in outer space 5. Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty must be universalized 6. Nuclear disarmament should become a part of global military budget cuts Dr. Vladimir Orlov Disturbance of strategic stability The United States and NATO should resume negotiations with Russia about their missile defense system in Europe and introduce transparency measures Establishing a nuclear weapons-free zone in Central and Eastern Europe could accelerate removal of the US nuclear weapons back to the national territory The first step for preventing hypersonic arms race could be an international conference with participation of all the key actors in this area In the framework of the Conference on Disarmament all nuclear weapons states should unilaterally release official reports on their nuclear arsenals Facilitating the ratifications and entry into force of the CTBT should be an important priority for the international community. Disturbance of strategic stability Further nuclear arms reductions in the near time frame (2019-2021) are hardly realistic It is essential that both Russia and US continue to implement the New START treaty until it expires in 2021 New treaty could include limitations on deployed strategic systems (warheads and delivery vehicles), deployed and non-deployed launchers, and non-deployed nuclear warheads; negotiations could also include other arms control issues (such as sea-based and air-based cruise missiles with conventional warheads, and missile defense systems). Decreasing of effectiveness of the mechanisms of multilateral diplomacy The NWS should continue to reiterate their commitment to Article VI of the NPT It is necessary to restart the work of the Conference on Disarmament and by temporarily removing FMCT from the CD agenda Russia and China could initiate an international conference for a broad discussion of the Agreement on the Prevention of the Deployment of Weapons in Outer Space Elimination of intermediate and shorter-range missiles by all NWS would lay the foundations for a multilateral nuclear disarmament process Nuclear proliferation in the world: 1945 - 2018 Nuclear-Weapons States States renounced their nuclear weapon programs Not members to the NPT States renounced their nuclear Non-Compliance weapons or nuclear weapons Dr. Vladimir Orlov on their territories States of Concern Nation NPT CTBT Number of IAEA Transfer of Physical security of member status nuclear membership nuclear military nuclear tests technology to infrastructure other countries facilities Israel No Signed n/a* Yes n/a n/a , not ratified India No Not 9 Yes No Satisfactory signed Pakistan No Not 2*** Yes Yes Unsatisfactory signed North Since Not 6 No n/a n/a Korea 1985** signed * Probably did not conduct any nuclear tests, though Israel’s complicity in the mysterious 1979 "flash” in the South Atlantic cannot be ruled out ** North Korea initiated its withdrawal from the NPT in 1993 and announced the resumption of NPT withdrawal procedure on January 10, 2003 *** Pakistan has conducted two underground nuclear tests, detonating a total of six nuclear devices Source: "NPT-2010: strengthening the regime". Moscow, PIR Center, 2010. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (1) DPRK Yongbyon Israel Nuclear Complex Dimona nuclear facility that is the key element of Israel’s Nuclear Weapon Program www.lenta.ru South Sudan India Bhabha Atomic Research CNN/Brian Rokus Centre (BARC), the premier Indian research center carries out research in areas of nuclear research and development. Pakistan Uranium enrichment facility at Kahuta which has being developing actively since the beginning 1990. Dr. Vladimir Orlov www.barc.ernet.in States non-parties to the NPT (2) • Ratification of the CTBT as soon as possible; • Providing the access for IAEA inspectors to the Dimona nuclear facility; • Early start of negotiations on WMD-free zone in the Middle East creation; • Step by step NPT accession as a non-nuclear state. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (3) • Ratification of the CTBT as soon as possible; • Renounce the blocking of FCMT negotiations start on the Conference on Disarmament; • Providing IAEA with comprehensive information on nuclear materials proliferation taken place; • Step by step NPT accession as a non-nuclear state. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (4) • Ratification of the CTBT as soon as possible; • Implementation of the obligations under US- India Civil Nuclear Agreement from October 10, 2008 (123 agreement); • Peaceful nuclear activity under Nuclear Suppliers Group 6 September 2008 decisions. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (5) • Moratorium on nuclear test and further CTBT accession • The implementation of the agreements in the six-nation talks framework with focus on regaining NPT membership of DPRK as a non- nuclear state • Participation, along with South Korea, in a Korean Peninsula denuclearization process Dr. Vladimir Orlov Responses: Use of Force June 7, 1981 Israel's air strike against the Osiraq reactor An Israeli F-16 pilot's view as he lines up on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981. September 6, 2007 Israel's air attack against Syria Syrian reactor was not yet operational and no nuclear material had been introduced into it. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Responses: Sticks (sanctions) South Africa
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