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Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction Iran's Nuclear Weapons Programs: Work in Progress?

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Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction Iran's Nuclear Weapons Programs: Work in Progress? - IRANIAN WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMS: WORK IN PROGRESS? Anthony H. Cordesman [email protected] A. Burke Chair in Strategy With Adam C. Seitz [email protected] Working Draft for Review and Comments: November 6, 2008 Cordesman: Iranian Weapons o f Mass Destruction 11/5/08 Page 2 Table of Contents V. POSSIBLE NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAMS .............................................................................. 3 A CASE STUDY IN DECEPTION, OBFUSCATION, AND MISDIRECTION? ........................................................ 3 Figure 5.1: Major Developments in Iran’s Nuclear Program 2006-2008 ................................ 4 PROBLEMS IN ANALYZING IRAN’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION (WMD) PROGRAM: NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A CASE STUDY .....................................................................................................................17 IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAMS: KEY MILESTONES ......................................................................................22 IRAN’S KEY NUCLEAR FACILITIES.............................................................................................................26 IRAN’S CURRENT NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................34 FISSILE MATERIAL AND WEAPONS PRODUCTION ......................................................................................36 Figure 5.2: Amount of Fissile Material Need to Build a Basic Fission (Non-Boosted) Weapon ................................................................................................................................. 37 PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................37 URANIUM ENRICHMENT ............................................................................................................................40 THE CENTRIFUGE CHALLENGE ..................................................................................................................42 The Origin’s of Iran’s Centrifuge Program .........................................................................................42 Iran No Longer is Dependent on Imports ............................................................................................43 The Uncertain Status of Iran’s Current Centrifuge Programs ............................................................44 Key Centrifuge Facilities .....................................................................................................................45 Problems in Estimating the Efficiency of Iran’s Centrifuge Programs................................................46 Continuing Iranian Efforts ...................................................................................................................47 Figure 5.3: Iran’s Centrifuge and LEU Status September 2008 and Estimates in Moving toward Weapons Grade Uranium .......................................................................................... 48 Figure 5.4: Number of centrifuges deployed over time ........................................................ 50 LASER ISOTOPE SEPARATION ....................................................................................................................51 OTHER ASPECTS OF IRANIAN ACTIVITY ....................................................................................................52 DOES IRAN HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM? THE NIE ON IRAN’S NUCLEAR FORCES .................55 The Need to For Careful Review ..........................................................................................................56 Examining the NIE’s Key Judgments ...................................................................................................57 The Key Issues that Were Not Addressed .............................................................................................58 Figure 5.5: Key Differences Between the Key Judgments of This Estimate on Iran’s Nuclear Program in the May 2005 Intelligence Community Assessment Estimate and the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate .............................................................................................. 60 THE DNI’S FOLLOW UP TO THE NIE .........................................................................................................60 THE IRANIAN COMMITMENT TO NUCLEAR PROGRAMS .............................................................................62 A CONTINUING PROCESS OF DISCOVERY ...................................................................................................64 IF IRAN BECOMES A SERIOUS NUCLEAR WEAPONS POWER .......................................................................67 Appendix A: Key Acronyms ................................................................................................ 70 Cordesman: Iranian Weapons o f Mass Destruction 11/5/08 Page 3 V. Possible Nuclear Weapons Programs There is more information available on Iran‘s nuclear programs than on its chemical and biological programs, but this scarcely eliminates major areas of uncertainty. The flood of information regarding Iran‘s nuclear programs includes many gaps and conflicting reports and assessments, as major problems in assessing the credibility of information which often has to be collected from questionable sources. Estimating Iranian nuclear capabilities is further complicated by three key factors: • First, the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations all agree that Iran has the right to acquire a full nuclear fuel cycle for peaceful purposes under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), but there is no clear way to distinguish many of the efforts needed to acquire a nuclear weapon from such ―legitimate‖ activities or pure research. • Second, Iran has never denied that it carries out a very diverse range of nuclear research efforts. In fact, it has openly claimed that it is pursuing nuclear technology and has a ―national‖ right to get access to nuclear energy. This has given it a rationale for rejecting Russia‘s offer to provide Iran nuclear fuel without giving Tehran the technology and the expertise needed to use it for weaponization purposes, and the United States agrees with this position, and, • Third, it has never been clear whether Iran does have a ―military‖ nuclear program that is separate from its ―civilian‖ nuclear research. American and French officials have argued that they believe that Iran‘s nuclear program would make sense only if it had military purposes. Both governments have yet to provide evidence to prove these claims. If Iran is actively developing nuclear weapons, as seems steadily more likely, it has shown that it can conduct a skilled program capable of hiding many aspects of its activities, that it can mask its activities by sending confusing and contradictory signals, and that it can simultaneously exploit both deception and the international inspection process. It has also shown that it can rapidly change the character of given facilities, and pausing and retreating when this is expedient. A Case Study in Deception, Obfuscation, and Misdirection? Iran learned from the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and used these lessons to its advantage. The 2003 invasion of Iraq took place under the pretense of finding and destroying Iraq‘s WMD programs, which turned out to be greatly exaggerated, and possibly nonexistent; which in turn showed the shortcomings of the intelligence community and created credibility issues for future operations, especially in regards to the Middle East and WMD programs. Iran is taking full advantage of this situation with by developing a strategy which focuses on creating just enough uncertainty in the international community that any use of force could very well be taken as further signs of US imperialism. Tehran‘s posture would seem to indicate that it is betting on a strategy that by maintaining a high level of ambiguity while showing some level of compliance; it can create enough uncertainty to avoid a unilateral preventive strike by the US or Israel. Tehran has shown how well it can use the media, public speaking engagements, international forums and contradicting official‘s statements as an invaluable weapon in its continuing war of deception. Misdirection has become a cornerstone of Iran‘s strategy in Cordesman: Iranian Weapons o f Mass Destruction 11/5/08 Page 4 concealing its true intentions and capabilities in its WMD programs, missile programs, asymmetric forces, and use of proxies and non-state actors. As Figure 5.1 indicates, Iran repeatedly demonstrated in recent years that denial can be a weapon; by consistently finding an alternative explanation for all its actions, including concealment and actions that are limited violations of the NPT, it can maintain some degree of ―plausible deniability‖ for a long chain of ambiguous actions and events. Figure 5.1: Major Developments in Iran’s Nuclear Program 2006-20081 Early January 2006: Iran removed 52 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) seals on Natanz, Pars Trash, and Farayand centrifuge projects. February 4, 2006: The IAEA Board of Governors voted to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). February 27, 2006: IAEA Director General Mohamed El Baradei reported that the IAEA was still tracking enriched uranium activity, the status of P-1 centrifuge program was still uncertain, P-2 centrifuge acquisition remained uncertain, there were still uranium tetrafluoride
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