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Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery Systems

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Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Delivery Systems WMD Nonproliferation Regimes: Current Threats and Challenges Dr. Vladimir Orlov Special Advisor PIR Center MGIMO University Governance and Global Affairs M.A. MA in Nonproliferation Studies Moscow, 2017 [email protected] Lecture 10 Current Challenges to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime Key Problems for the Nuclear Nonproliferation 1. Nuclear disarmament process is too slow; 2. DPRK continues its nuclear tests being outside the regime 3. India, Pakistan and Israel decline to joint the NPT 4. JCPOA with Iran is under threat of failure 5. No progress with the Zone Free of Nuclear and Other WMD in the Middle East 6. Multilateral diplomacy fails to address key nuclear disarmament and proliferation concerns 7. Nuclear and missile technology proliferation networks became a part of reality; 8. Non-state actors seek access to nuclear weapons and nuclear materials Dr. Vladimir Orlov MEASURES ON STRENGTHENING THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION REGIME IN 2017-2020 KEY CHALLENGES Difficulties with the implementation Disturbance of strategic stability and universalization of the NPT Lack of progress towards Decreasing of effectiveness of the establishing a WMD-free zone in mechanisms of multilateral diplomacy the Middle East Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and nuclear test (opened for signature in 1996) seismic radionuclid hydroacoustic infrasound Dr. Vladimir Orlov CTBT Annex 2 States (States whose signature and ratification are required for the Treaty to enter into force) Algeria Democratic People's Israel Russian Federation Argentina Republic of Korea Italy Slovakia Australia Democratic Republic Japan South Africa Austria of Congo Mexico Spain Bangladesh Egypt Netherlands Sweden Belgium Finland Norway Switzerland Brazil France Pakistan Turkey Bulgaria Germany Peru Ukraine Canada Hungary Poland United Kingdom United States of Chile India Republic of China Korea America Indonesia Colombia Romania Viet Nam Islamic Republic of Iran Dr. Vladimir Orlov Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty «[To] achieve a global ban on nuclear testing, my administration will immediately and aggressively pursue U.S. ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. After more than five decades of talks, it is time for the testing of nuclear weapons to finally be banned» Barack Obama Prague Speech (April 9, 2009) Dr. Vladimir Orlov Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FCMT) «A necessary condition for the «If efforts to start negotiations success of FMCT negotiations is in the CD continue to stall, then carrying them out within the those governments that wish Conference on Disarmament, to negotiate an FMCT will have and not anywhere else. That is to consider other options for the only way to ensure the moving this process forward» participations of all key actors» Rose Gottemoeller US Deputy State Secretary Sergey Lavrov October 5, 2010 Russian Foreign Minister March 1, 2011 Dr. Vladimir Orlov Nuclear proliferation in the world: 1945 - 2017 Nuclear-Weapons States States renounced their nuclear weapon programs Not members to the NPT States renounced their nuclear Non-Compliance weapons or nuclear weapons Dr. Vladimir Orlov on their territories States of Concern Nation NPT CTBT Number of IAEA Transfer of Physical security of member status nuclear membership nuclear military nuclear tests technology to infrastructure other countries facilities Israel No Signed n/a* Yes n/a n/a , not ratified India No Not 9 Yes No Satisfactory signed Pakistan No Not 2*** Yes Yes Unsatisfactory signed North Since Not 6 No n/a n/a Korea 1985** signed * Probably did not conduct any nuclear tests, though Israel’s complicity in the mysterious 1979 "flash” in the South Atlantic cannot be ruled out ** North Korea initiated its withdrawal from the NPT in 1993 and announced the resumption of NPT withdrawal procedure on January 10, 2003 *** Pakistan has conducted two underground nuclear tests, detonating a total of six nuclear devices Source: "NPT-2010: strengthening the regime". Moscow, PIR Center, 2010. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (1) DPRK Yongbyon Israel Nuclear Complex Dimona nuclear facility that is the key element of Israel’s Nuclear Weapon Program www.lenta.ru South Sudan India Bhabha Atomic Research CNN/Brian Rokus Centre (BARC), the premier Indian research center carries out research in areas of nuclear research and development. Pakistan Uranium enrichment facility at Kahuta which has being developing actively since the beginning 1990. Dr. Vladimir Orlov www.barc.ernet.in States non-parties to the NPT (2) • Ratification of the CTBT as soon as possible; • Providing the access for IAEA inspectors to the Dimona nuclear facility; • Early start of negotiations on WMD-free zone in the Middle East creation; • Step by step NPT accession as a non-nuclear state. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (3) • Ratification of the CTBT as soon as possible; • Renounce the blocking of FCMT negotiations start on the Conference on Disarmament; • Providing IAEA with comprehensive information on nuclear materials proliferation taken place; • Step by step NPT accession as a non-nuclear state. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (4) • Ratification of the CTBT as soon as possible; • Implementation of the obligations under US- India Civil Nuclear Agreement from October 10, 2008 (123 agreement); • Peaceful nuclear activity under Nuclear Suppliers Group 6 September 2008 decisions. Dr. Vladimir Orlov States non-parties to the NPT (5) • Moratorium on nuclear test and further CTBT accession • The implementation of the agreements in the six-nation talks framework with focus on regaining NPT membership of DPRK as a non- nuclear state • Participation, along with South Korea, in a Korean Peninsula denuclearization process Dr. Vladimir Orlov States Non-Parties to the NPT (6) North Korea talks are deadlocked DPRK expands nuclear weapon and missile Goal - denuclearization of the Korean programmes Peninsula, DPRK's return to the NPT, restoration of the IAEA safeguards P5 to initiate consultations on this issue South Korea and Japan to avoid pressures for further proliferation in the region Steps to encourage cooperation: humanitarian assistance and economic aid, easing of sanctions security assurances помощь В.А. Орлов Responses: Use of Force June 7, 1981 Israel's air strike against the Osiraq reactor An Israeli F-16 pilot's view as he lines up on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981. September 6, 2007 Israel's air attack against Syria Syrian reactor was not yet operational and no nuclear material had been introduced into it. Dr. Vladimir Orlov Responses: Sticks (sanctions) Dr. Vladimir Orlov Responses: Carrots Dr. Vladimir Orlov ABDUL QADEER KHAN is a Pakistani Khan’s nuclear scientist and metallurgical engineer. The Head of the Network. network BUHARY SAYED ABU TAHIR (Sri Lanka) FRIEDRICH TINNER and his PETER GRIFFIN, a citizen of GOTTHARD LERCH, a German citizen sons, mechanical engineer, UK who has business interests residing in Switzerland, worked for alleged to have had dealings in DUBAI and currently LEYBOLD HERAEUS, a German with the nuclear arms expert residing in FRANCE. Alleged company that is alleged to have since 1980s,was reported to to have supplied the lay-out produced vacuum technology have prepared certain centrifuge plan for the Machine Shop equipment. components, including safety 1001 as a workshop to enable valves. LIBYA to produce centrifuge German citizen GERHARD The Netherlands VISSER was the managing Germany North Korea director of Randburg company Turkey Krish Engineering Iran Pakistan Libya Swiss citizen DANIEL GEIGES U A E worked for Randburg company Krish Engineering as a project manager Countries furnished know -how & materials JOHAN ANDRIES MULLER MEYER, the citizen of South Countries received nuclear technologies Africa Republic, the director of South Africa Tradefin Engineering The main witness in the South African process Abdul Qadeer Khan International Network Supplied Nuclear Technologies to the Following Countries: • Iran (first transfer in about 1987) • Libya (first transfer approximately in about 1997) • North Korea (cooperation began in 1993) • Iraq (nuclear technologies offers in 1990) Dr. Vladimir Orlov Nuclear Security and Nuclear Terrorism Dr. Vladimir Orlov UN Security Council Resolution #1540 (2004) of April 28, 2004 • all states shall take and enforce effective measures to establish domestic controls to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and their means of delivery; • develop and maintain appropriate and effective measures to account for and secure such items in production, use, storage and transport; • develop and maintain appropriate and effective border controls to detect, deter, prevent and combat, including through international cooperation when necessary, the illicit trafficking in such items; • establish, develop, review and maintain appropriate and effective national export and trans-shipment of such items. Dr. Vladimir Orlov International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism • Adopted by the UN General Assembly on 13 April 2005 • Opened for signature in September 2005 • Signatories: 115, Parties: 99 • Provides for a definition of acts of nuclear terrorism and covers a broad range of possible targets, including those against nuclear power plants and nuclear reactors • Encourages States to cooperate in preventing terrorist attacks by sharing information and assisting each other in connection with criminal investigations and extradition proceedings.
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