FROM CONTROL TO CRISIS Changing Trends and Policies Reshaping U.S.-Mexico Border Enforcement

By Randy Capps, Doris Meissner, Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, Jessica Bolter, and Sarah Pierce U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY PROGRAM

FROM CONTROL TO CRISIS Changing Trends and Policies Reshaping U.S.-Mexico Border Enforcement

By Randy Capps, Doris Meissner, Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, Jessica Bolter, and Sarah Pierce

August 2019 Acknowledgments

This report is part of a new, multiyear Migration Policy Institute (MPI) initiative, Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy. The initiative aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision of the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. It will provide research, analysis, and needs for immigration to continue to be a comparative advantage for the United States as anda society. policy ideas and proposals—both administrative and legislative—that reflect new realities

Historically, across-the-aisle cooperation and consensus-building have been essential for immigration policymaking and legislation to succeed. MPI is committed to re-energizing such bipartisanship in shaping and advancing feasible solutions for a system that is widely acknowledged as being broken.

U.S.-Mexico border enforcement. The authors’ proposals represent a rethinking of how border Thisenforcement report lays has out been the seen challenges and carried new formsout for of almost migrant 40 flowsyears. represent MPI policy for experts effectiveness working in on the Rethinking Initiative are engaged in similar work on topics across the spectrum of immigration system issues, from employment-based immigration to humanitarian admissions to the values and principles that should guide future immigration policymaking.

The authors wish to thank their MPI colleagues for contributing to a work environment of continual learning, curiosity, and testing of ideas. They owe special thanks to MPI’s communications team, including Michelle Mittelstadt, whose advice and support in shaping large writing projects is unparalleled.

Finally, for generous support for MPI and the Rethinking Initiative, the authors are deeply grateful to the Ford Foundation, the Open Society Foundations, the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Unbound Philanthropy, and the 21st Century International Ladies’ Garment Workers’ Union (ILGWU) Heritage Fund.

© 2019 Migration Policy Institute. All Rights Reserved.

Cover Design and Layout: Sara Staedicke, MPI Photo: Mani Albrecht/U.S. Customs and Border Protection

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Suggested citation: Capps, Randy, Doris Meissner, Ariel G. Ruiz Soto, Jessica Bolter, and Sarah Pierce. 2019. From Control to Crisis: Changing Trends and Policies Reshaping U.S.-Mexico Border Enforcement. Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute. Table of Contents

Executive Summary...... 1

I. Overview: From Control to Crisis ...... 4

II. The Southwest Border Story: An Evolution...... 7 A. Recent Trends in Apprehensions ...... 8 B. Changing Origins and Characteristics of Apprehended Migrants...... 10

III. Migration Push Factors in Central America...... 13 A. High Population Growth Rates...... 13 B. Low Per-Capita Incomes and Wages...... 14 C. Climate Change and Drought...... 15 D. Violence and Insecurity...... 17 E. Corruption and Political Instability...... 18 F. The Combination of Push Factors ...... 18

IV. Pull Factors in the United States...... 19 A. Familial or Other Connections ...... 19 B. U.S. Policies that Pe