China's Presidential Election: the Role of The

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China’s Presidential Election: The Role of the NPC

BACKGROUNDER - February 2018

Introduction

Summary The Chinese government has recently caused a lot of speculation about the political future • This year begins the inauguration of the of China through the release of a two-sen- 13th NPC, which will run until March tence press statement stipulating constitution- 2023. al changes. Published through the state-run Xinhua news agency, the memo states that the • China’s NPC of around 3,000 delegates Xi administration has proposed a constitution- will meet in March 2018 and will likely al amendment to remove language indicating re-elect Xi Jinping for another five-year that the offices of President and Vice-President term. are to be limited to two five-year terms. The • The meeting will see the announcement plausible intention of President Xi to remove of China’s annual military budget and an obstacle to extending his own tenure, long a progress on its five-year economic plan. subject of speculation, has cause a furor in the international media landscape. An important • The NPC is a key part of the Chinese aspect in this debate, however, is the nature of system of ‘consultative democracy’, the Presidency of the PRC and the relationship which theoretically channels the will of between the Chinese people, the legislative and the people. China’s top leadership.

• The NPC is well suited to take on a In March 2018, China’s legislative deputies central role in the implementation of will convene in the Great Hall of the People to changes and the driving of new policy discuss and vote on the most important matters initiatives. of state. Officially called the National People’s Congress (NPC), this is for all intents and purposes the PRC’s parliament and is granted significant powers over the affairs of state. -Im

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 1 portantly, it is the sole body able to change the To better understand China as a whole, it is state constitution and dismiss senior members important to look at the office of President, the of the executive, more to the point, the NPC National People’s Congress and some of the im- is charged with electing the Chinese President petus driving the Communist Party’s embrace to a five-year term and making changes to the of what it views as “Socialism with Chinese Chinese constitution. Yet for all its significance, Characteristics for a New Era”. the convening of the NPC’s inaugural session and election of China’s head of state has so far Chairman, President or received relatively little attention outside of General Secretary? China, certainly when compared to the fanfare reserved for the National Congress of the Com- Chinese politics is a maze of titles, rankings munist Party of China in October of 2017. and orders of precedence that can be difficult to grasp at first glance. The opaqueness of the Observers of Chinese politics are almost univer- upper levels of the PRC’s leadership and the sally agreed that the NPC plenary session will practice of government through consensus and confirm the reelection of incumbent president precedent do not help in better understand- Xi Jinping. Although the post is open to any ing the changes taking place in China. When Chinese citizen with full voting rights above unpacking events like the upcoming inaugural the age of 45, by the time the NPC convenes session of the National People’s Congress and for the Plenary Session at which it will vote on the Presidential election that runs alongside, the office of president, the pool will already it is important to keep some core concepts in have been narrowed down to a single candi- mind. date – the Secretary General of the Communist Party. As in most political systems with a Marx- The Chinese term for the PRC’s Head of State ist-Leninist legacy, the PRC’s voting system is is “zhuxí,” which in common usage translates structured to be confirmative with delegates to “chairman” in English. However, the official voting for, against or choosing to abstain, as English translation for the term when used for opposed to being competitive with candidates the political office has been “president” since vying for some legally defined majority of the 1982. Foreign leaders who hold the office of support pool. Since 1993, the post of President president are styled as “zongtong” in official of the PRC has been held by the leader of the Mandarin translations. In other words, while Communist Party and every incumbent has an English language press statement about a been re-elected to a second term. Given this meeting between Xi and Trump would describe precedent and the current political structure of “two presidents” meeting, Chinese language China, the reelection of Xi Jinping as President coverage of the same event would characterize of the PRC seems certain. a “chairman” and a “president” meeting. The difference between these two terms makes com- That being said, China’s political process is cur- parisons a little misleading, and should factor rently undergoing a major, if gradual, overhaul. into any discussion of the Chinese “presidential The process by which senior government offices election.” are awarded, as well as the relationship between Xi Jinping is in fact the seventh person in the China’s executive and legislative branches of history of the PRC to hold the title of presi- government, yield insights into the direction dent. The first person to hold this office was that Chinese politics may take in the future.

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Figure 1: China's Leadership Structure

Key Elects / Approves Has Authority Over

Mao Zedong, who assumed the role of presi- serious commentator on China’s politics would dent (or State Chairman as it was known at the consider the man currently holding the office time) in 1955. From a linguistic perspective of President – Xi Jinping – as having a predom- an important alteration has been the change inately ceremonial function. in translation convention of zhuxí as “presi- The office of President of the PRC has evolved dent” as opposed to “chairman.” This creates to be held concurrently with the office of an apparent disconnect between “Chairman General Secretary of the Communist Party of Mao” and “President Xi,” for an English-speak- China (CPC). Therefore, in practice, the head ing audience which is not shared by a Chinese of the CPC is simultaneously the head of state. domestic audience for whom the titles are Added to these two roles is the position of similar. This is not to say that the office has not Chairmanship of the Central Military Com- changed, but rather that there is more conti- mission (CMC), in effect the highest post in nuity than may at first strike a casual observer China’s military hierarchy. Thus three separate, of Chinese history. Under the current consti- vital state offices are simultaneously held by one tution, the office of President is considered person – China’s paramount leader. to mainly have a ceremonial function. Yet no

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 3 The way in which the office of the president delegates with Zhang Dejiang as its chair- is bestowed upon the General Secretary of the man. With its mandate set to expire, the 12th CPC, however, gives a good explanation about NPC held its last plenary session in March of the way in which politics have developed and 2017, and is in the process of handing over the how the machinery of government, as well as reins to the incoming 13th NPC. The plenary its checks and balances, is supposed to func- session this March will be the inaugural session tion. Legally speaking, the president serves at of the incoming legislature, and will serve as the pleasure of the NPC, and it falls to the the venue at which President Xi’s presidential legislature to both elect the president and make mandate will likely be renewed. If past sessions changes to the constitution. are any indication, this will also be when the PRC’s annual military budget and reports on The National People’s the progress of China’s five-year economic plan Congress are made public. Structured as a unicameral representational The deputies who make up the NPC are drawn body by the Chinese constitution, the NPC from every part of China and number just is the world’s largest parliament by number of under 3,000. In order to get a more or less even members and is the de jure highest government spread of delegates from the country’s diverse institution in China. Elected to a five-year provinces, autonomous regions and special period, it holds an annual plenary session in the administrative zones, the law provides for the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, usually ev- outgoing NPC’s Standing Committee to over- ery March, for a period of 10 to 14 days. The see the distribution of representative mandates 12th and sitting NPC, which first convened during the process of NPC elections. These in March 2013, presently consists of 2,987 are held progressively over the course of a year

Figure 2: The Great Hall of the People, Beijing. The meeting place for the full sessions the National People's Congress (NPC)

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 4 through a process of indirect elections in suc- members of the PLA. At least one seat is also cessively larger people’s congresses, effectively set aside for deputies from each of China’s 55 local councils that vote for or against nominees. officially recognized ethnic minorities, as are a The number of candidates running for elec- further 35 seats for returned overseas Chinese. tions in the national or local people’s congresses The outgoing 12th NPC includes 699 women, must, by law, be greater than the number of making China’s supreme legislature 23.4 per- seats available. The deputies are drawn from 35 cent female. This number represents an increase electoral units divided between China’s provin- of 62 female delegates from the preceding 11th cial and regional administrative units, as well as NPC. However, given the overall reduction from the ranks of the People’s Liberation Army of the presence of women at the highest level (PLA). There are also special representatives for of Chinese politics, it seems unlikely that the Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. share of female members in the 13th NPC will increase in a significant way and it can be Each province-level unit is allocated a mini- expected that women will continue to account mum of 15 seats in the legislature, which are for about 25 percent of the total. Of the total augmented by one seat for every 670,000 in- 2,987 total seats available in the 13th NPC, habitants. A province like Sichuan with 81 mil- most are held by CPC members, but there are lion inhabitants would, therefore, receive about also representatives of China’s other political 120 extra seats, while a province like Jilin with parties, such as the Revolutionary Committee a comparatively low population of 27 million of the Guomindang, and independents. inhabitants would be granted a further 58 seats. The 13th NPC will also have 36 deputies representing Hong Kong, 12 representing Macao and 13 representing Taiwan, the latter of which are predominately born on the mainland or

Key Deputies (per-million)

Figure 3: Distribution of NPC seats amongst China's provinces

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 5 Sub-Committee While the NPC is the supreme legislative body the legislative process is often characterized as of the PRC, its work is overseen by the Na- a “Rubber Stamp” for the CPC leadership. tional People’s Congress Standing Committee. This is largely due to the fact that most of the Such is the political landscape of China that seats in the NPC are held by members from large government bodies often require smaller the Communist Party. While not uncommon advisory sub-bodies that coordinate the prima- for states with a Marxist-Leninist legacy, this ry flow of information and decision-making system does concentrate a lot of power over capacities. According to the constitution, the China’s policy direction with the CPC and its 150-member Standing Committee of the NPC central leadership. This is especially important is allowed to draft laws on the Congresses be- as a vital, if officially secondary, function of the half, and can meet between the NPC’s annual NPC lies in confirming the party’s nominees meetings. This convention is due to the fact for the senior position of state through elec- that, unlike in European legislatures, NPC tions at the first plenary session of the incom- delegates are not full-time politicians with their ing Congress. own offices, indeed they are not remunerated Yay or Nay? – The People and for their service on the NPC, but rather they are private citizens with their own careers and The Party serve in a part time capacity. However, any The inaugural plenary session of the NPC is change to the Chinese constitution requires a significant due to its timing within the Chi- quorum of the full Congress. In addition to its nese political cycle, as well as serving as a point legislative and organizational duties, the Stand- of contact between the population and state ing Committee is also charged with establish- leaders. By law, the first plenary session of the ing special membership quotas, so as to assure incoming Congress must be scheduled within the representation of ethnic minorities or other potentially underrepresented groups. An important de facto function of the NPC’s plenary sessions is the publication and dissem- ination of work reports. In Chinese politics these reports serve the vital function of di- recting the massive mechanisms of state and defining the criteria for success and failure that various state organs are required to adhere to. It should be noted that this modus operandi is not limited to the NPC, but is also common in meetings of the similarly named National Congress of the Communist Party of China (NCCPC). Although de jure the highest legal Figure 4: The ceiling inside the Great entity in the land, the NPC is considered by Hall of the People, Beijing some observers to be primarily ceremonial and

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 6 the first quarter of an election year, usually fall- under 90 million people, the sheer size of Chi- ing on the middle of March. It follows on the na’s population dwarfs this membership. Only heels of the National Congress of the Commu- about six percent of China’s 1.4 billion citizens nist Party of China, usually held in the autumn are card-carrying members of the Communist of the preceding year, which in terms of policy Party. This means that in order to fulfill the is the pivotal moment for Beijing. The promi- obligations of the principle of universal suf- nence of the CPC within the state bureaucracy frage, the NPC serves as a representative body and at all levels of Chinese administration that allows non-party members to participate means that most major political decisions will in politics. Such conventions are not uncom- have already been extensively discussed and ne- mon and most modern states make use of some gotiated internally, and by the time they reach form of indirect representation to reconcile the the ratification stage, already been subject to necessity of government with a desire by the extensive revision. population to have some role in the direction The main function of the National People’s the state apparatus takes. What is less common, Congress is therefore, to approve or reject for political systems without a Marxist-Leninist proposals on policy, and allow representatives underpinning, is a system which rests on the of the general population a say in the direction notion of legislative voting through approval or that the affairs of state take. Although the CPC disapproval of a nomination for a position. This is one of the largest single political parties on type of voting is sometimes called “consultative earth, with an enormous membership of just democracy,” the underlying rationale being that the popular will is expressed in the support martialed for a nominee. The voting process takes place at plenary meetings of the NPC and is defined by Article 52 of the Rule of Procedure of the NPC. The adoption of a bill only requires a simple majority of all the NPC’s deputies. After a bill is adopted, it becomes a law that needs a decree signed by the president of the PRC to promul- gate it. However, in the case of amending the Constitution, a two-thirds majority is needed to successfully change the basis of China’s legal system. After an amendment to the Constitu- tion is approved, it is put to the Presidium of the NPC and becomes valid from the day of final approval onward according to article 54 of the Rule of Procedure.

Figure 5: President Xi Jinping

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 7 A New Politics for a New Era? Although important to the institution of Chi- By convention, China’s top political leaders are nese government, the composition of the 13th barred from assuming office due to an age cap. National People’s Congress and its inaugural Sometimes referred to as qishang baxia, trans- meeting is unlikely to throw up any major lating to “seven up, eight down,” this de facto surprises. Touted as one of the strongest leaders rule sets the retirement age for members of in recent Chinese history, President Xi Jinping the CPC at 68. Although not codified in any is almost certain to be nominated and approved legal documents, these guidelines have helped for the position of China’s head of state. Even to shape the recent history of Chinese political for his first term as president, Xi won an over- development and served to prevent the creation whelming majority NPC delegates’ mandates, of a gerontocracy reminiscent of the Soviet with 2,952 votes in favor, three abstentions and Union in the late 1970’s. In order to guarantee a solitary vote against, and given his popularity an orderly transition of power upon the retire- in the country and the conventions guiding the ment of a sitting president, an heir apparent is political process a similar turnout seems likely. often appointed to the seven-member Standing However, a big question that remains unre- Committee of the CPC’s Politburo, the party’s solved for observers of Chinese political affairs, highest organ. However, Xi appears to have and likely even opaque to many cadres within flaunted this custom, and his second term as the CPC itself, is the question of succession. It General Secretary is characterized by an inner is precisely in this area that the 13th NPC may leadership circle made up of members who are come to play a pivotal role. all too old to take over the role of paramount leader upon the completion of the Presi-

Figure 6: 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China at the Great Hall of the People

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 8 dent-General Secretary’s second term. This the state constitution by submitting Xi´s Po- fueled speculation that Xi will try to further litical Thought, along with Hu Jintao’s the- break with tradition and attempt to run for a ory. Should such an amendment be passed, third term in 2021/2022. this would make Xi the first sitting Chinese Subject of a brief press statement put out president included in the state constitution through the state media outlet Xinhua, it now by name since Mao Zedong. appears evident that Xi Jinping intends to use In the past, the PRC’s Constitution has the 13th NPC’s inaugural Plenary Session to served as a way for the Chinese leadership revise a conditional clause in the Chinese con- to restructure the state, and the highest stitution that limits presidency to a period of government positions have been remolded two-terms. The press release itself was tellingly in the process. Though it might be tempt- brief, but within a few hours of being circu- ing to view China as a monolithic entity, lated there was a huge wave of international with a history that runs back millennia, speculation and reporting. Interestingly, anoth- the reality is that it is a dynamic and ev- er equally short press statement, emphasizing er-changing country. Time and again Chi- Xi’s commitment to the national constitution na’s government and the CPC have proved of China, was publicly disseminated just hours themselves willing to engage in political before the proposed amendment to the con- and economic experiments. As the de jure stitution. This may hint at a strategy by the highest law-making body in the land, the CPC’s top leadership to increasingly focus its National People’s Congress is well suited to governance reforms and legitimacy on the Chi- take on a central role in the implementation nese legislature and constitution, rather than of changes and the driving of new policy on the informal mechanisms enforced within initiatives. Though there may be little doubt the party. That being said, it is still too early as to who will lead China, the question of to tell which direction the Chinese leadership how this transformation will be steered and will head in, although it is possible to speculate what the politics of the future will look like about the potential trajectory. remains an open question. What is certain, During the National Congress of the CPC is that the much-touted New Era of Chinese in October 2017, the CPC constitution was politics dawns. amended by the addition of Xi’s works on political thought. It is not uncommon for the policy theories and directions of China’s top leadership to be included in this way, but what is unique is the inclusion by name of the author and the use of the term “Thought.” So far, the honor of being enshrined by name in the party constitution has fallen only to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, the latter of which was immortalized with the less assertive term “Theory.” Chinese officials have indicated through state media that they plan to amend

Institute for Security & Development Policy – www.isdp.eu 9 Backgrounder February 2018

Endnotes

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Innovation. cn/display.aspx?cgid=4271&lib=law “Electoral law of the National People’s Congress and Local "Xi Jinping named president of China," BBC News, March People Congresses,” Database of Laws and Regulations, 14, 2013, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-chi- People’s Republic of China, http://www.npc.gov.cn/eng- na-21766622 lishnpc/Law/2007-12/13/content_1384080.htm "For China’s Leaders, Age Cap is but a Moving Number," “National People’s Congress,” The National People’s Con- Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2016, https://blogs.wsj. gress of the People’s Republic of China, http://www.npc. com/chinarealtime/2016/11/01/for-chinas-leaders-age- gov.cn/englishnpc/Organization/node_2846.htm cap-is-but-a-moving-number/ “How China is Ruled: National People’s Congress,” BBC, "Xi Jinping signals intent to remain in power by revealing October 5, 2012, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pa- politburo with no successor, " The Guardian, October 25, cific-13908155 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/25/ “Taiwan deputies to 13th NPC elected,” ChinaDaily, January xi-jinping-signals-intent-power-successor-politburo-china 25, 2018, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201801/30/ “CPC proposes change on Chinese president’s term in WS5a6fdcaea3106e7dcc137916.html Constitution,” Xinhua, February 25, 2018, http://www. “Infographic: Deputies to the 13th National People’s Con- xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/25/c_136998770.htm gress,” China Daily, March 21, 2017, http://usa.chinadaily. “Xi stresses important role of Constitution,” Xinhua, com.cn/china/2017-03/21/content_28627950.htm February 25, 2018, http://www.xinhuanet.com/en- Hu Tao and Liu Wei, “New age for China’s women deputies,” glish/2018-02/25/c_136998465.htm The National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of "Xi Jinping’s thinking is ranked alongside Mao’s," The Econ- China, December 23, 2013, http://www.npc.gov.cn/eng- omist, October 24, 2017, https://www.economist.com/ lishnpc/NPCChina/2013-12/23/content_1819522.htm news/china/21730590-does-mean-no-one-can-challenge- Changhao Wei, “More Women, Fewer Cadres: A Preview of him-xi-jinpings-thinking-ranked-alongside-maos Next NPC´s Composition,” NPC Observer, March 16, 2017, “Top cadres propose adding `Xi Jinping Thought’ to Chi- https://npcobserver.com/2017/03/16/more-women-fewer- nese Constitution,” South China Morning Post, January 19, cadres-a-preview-of-next-npcs-composition/ 2018, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/ Jiang Jingsong, The National People´s Congress, 2002, article/2129760/top-cadres-propose-adding-xi-jinping- Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, pp.315-322. thought-chinese “Standing Committee,” The National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China, http://www.npc.gov.cn/ englishnpc/Organization/node_2847.htm Image Credits Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Le système politique chinois, Scienc- es Po, 2014, Paris: les Presses, pp.287-288. Cover: Great Hall of the People - Credit - Ahmad Rafiuddin “Infographic: Deputies to the 13th National People’s Con- - Flickr Creative Commons gress,” China Daily, March 21, 2017, http://usa.chinadaily. Figure 2: The Great Hall of the People - Credit - Danny Pang com.cn/china/2017-03/21/content_28627950.htm; Chang- - Flickr Creative Commons hao Wei, “More Women, Fewer Cadres: A Preview of Next NPC’s Composition,” NPC Observer, March 16, 2017, https:// Figure 4: The Great Hall of the People - Credit - Andrey npcobserver.com/2017/03/16/more-women-fewer-cadres- Filippov - Flickr Creative Commons a-preview-of-next-npcs-composition/; “Electoral law of the Figure 5: President Xi Jinping - Wikimedia Commons National People’s Congress and Local People Congresses,” Figure 6: 18th National Congress of the Communist Party Database of Laws and Regulations, People Republic of of China at the Great Hall of the People - Credit - Remko China, available at: http://www.npc.gov.cn/englishnpc/ Tanis - Flickr Creative Commons Law/2007-12/13/content_1384080.htm Changhao Wei, “Recording & Review: An Introduction to Constitutional Review with Chinese Characteris- tics,” Xinhua, January 19, 2018, https://npcobserver. com/2018/01/19/recording-review-an-introduction-to-constitutional-review-with-chinese-characteristics/#more-8886 “What makes a rubber stamp?,” The Economist, March 5, 2012, https://www.economist.com/blogs/ana- lects/2012/03/national-peoples-congress “Electoral Law of the National People’s Congress and Local People’s Congresses of the People’s Republic of China,” Database of Laws and Regulations, http://www.npc.gov.cn/ englishnpc/Law/2007-12/13/content_1384080.htm "CPC has nearly 89.5 mln members," Xinhua, June 30, 2017, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/30/c_136407371.htm "Ugly US election race a poor ad for democracy in China," BBC News, October 24, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/

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