I. the ABM Treaty: Cornerstone of Security and Arms Control

Table of Contents Preface .................................. viii PART ONE: POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY OF MISSILE DEFENSE I. The ABM Treaty: Cornerstone of Security and Arms Control ....... 4 The Promise of Protection and the Reality of Deterrence Missile Defenses and the Arms Race Predictability Defenses and Arms Control Missile Defenses and the Risk of Nuclear War The ABM Treaty and the Current Issues Toward a Defense Transition? ....... .8 II. The History of Nuclear Defense and the ABM Treaty 12 Early ABM Systems Sentinel, Safeguard, and SALT The SALT Negotiations From SALT I to Star Wars SDI and the New ABM Debate The Success of the ABM Treaty . 16 Ill. How the ABM Treaty Works . 20 IV. The Strategic Defense Initiative . 24 Criteria for Deployment The Phased Deployment The Technology of SDI The Boost Phase The Post-Boost Phase The Midcourse Phase Terminal Defense Putting the Layers Together The Responsive Threat The Battle in Space The Costs of SDI Conclusions Phases of a Missile's Flight . 26 The Technology of Near-Term Deployment . 28 Brilliant Pebbles: A New Miracle Weapon? . 32 Technical Progress in SDI ...... 37 How Much Has Changed Since 1972? . 44 V. The Soviet ABM Program . 48 An SDI Spending Gap? Air Defense and Civil Defense Past Soviet ABM Programs The Soviet ABM Program Today Traditional Technologies Exotic Technologies Lasers Other Exotic Weapons Computers and Sensors iii PART TWO: THE EROSION OF THE ABM TREATY VI. The Reinterpretation of the ABM Treaty ............................58 The Reinterpretation Controversy Treaty Interpretation The Treaty's Text The Negotiating Record The Subsequent Practice of the Parties The Ratification Record and the Senate's Power The Security Impact of the Reinterpretation Letter from Negotiators of the ABM Treaty . .59 Kinetic-Energy Weapons and the ABM Treaty .70 VII. Soviet Compliance With the ABM Treaty ............................74 The Krasnoyarsk Radar 'Deployment' of ABM Radars at Gamel 'Mobility' of ABM System Components Concurrent Operations of ABM and Air-Defense Components ABM Capability of Modern SAM Systems Reload of ABM Launchers Preparation of a Territorial Defense Conclusions The Standing Consultative Commission . 77 Hedging Against Soviet Breakout . .86 VIII. U.S. Compliance With the ABM Treaty .............................90 Permitted Activities SDI Testing and the ABM Treaty: Four Cases SDI Testing and the ABM Treaty: Other Issues Conclusions U.S. Compliance Before SDI . .93 The Radars at Thule and Fylingdales Moor . 100 IX. Grey-Area Systems and the ABM Treaty . 104 Air Defense, Tactical Missile Defense, and the ABM Treaty Antisatellite Weapons and the ABM Treaty Grey-Area Sensors and the ABM Treaty PART THREE: LOOKING TOWARD THE FUTURE X. Nationwide Missile Defenses or the ABM Treaty? 112 Budgets and Buildups: A Renewed Offense-Defense Race Crisis Stability, Uncertainty, and Deterrence Prospects for Arms Control The Impact on NATO and Other Nations Other Issues Conclusions The Defense and Space Talks . 120 Antitactical Ballistic Missiles and NA TO . 125 Phase I vs. the ABM Treaty: Making the Choice . 128 iv XI. Other Options for SDI . 130 The Accidental Launch Protection System Shape and Cost of an ALPS System Accidental and Unauthorized Launches Third World Missiles Treaty Limits and Security Issues Treaty-Limited Defense of Military Targets Threshold Defense Deploying an ABM as a Breakout Hedge Summary of Treaty-Limited Systems The ABM Treaty and Hard-Site Defense Design, Cost, and Effectiveness of a Hard-Site Defense Security Issues and Alternatives A Treaty-Compliant Research Program XII. Reaffirming the ABM Treaty 142 Resolving the LPAR Issue Preventing Air-Defense/ATBM Upgrade Adapting the ABM Treaty to New Technologies Testing Principles Thresholds on Specific Technologies Defining Space-Based ABM Interceptors Railguns Lasers Particle Beams New Types of Sensors Space Nuclear Reactors Predictability and Verification Measures Conclusions Toward a Zero-ABM Agreement . 144 Toward ASA T Arms Control . 148 START Ratification and the ABM Treaty 157 APPENDICES A: Text of the ABM Treaty and 1974 Protocol 162 B: Summary of sec Agreements and Key Definitions 168 C: Defense and Space Talks: Negotiating History 170 D: ABM/SDI Glossary and Acronyms 180 E: Suggestions for Further Reading 188 F: References 192 Index 218 V Preface The Antiballistic Missile Treaty is the most fundamental arms agreement yet reached between the United States and the Soviet Union-a critical component of U.S. security policy. By prohibiting all significant ABM defenses, the treaty successfully prevented what might have been a ferociously expensive and dangerously destabilizing race between offense and defense. Without the ABM Treaty's limits on missile defenses, the excessive missile buildup of the 1970s and 1980s would surely have been far worse. The ABM Treaty also provides the essential base for reductions in offensive arms, by limiting the defenses those forces must overcome. Today, with a Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (ST ART) agreement nearing comple tion, that promise of offensive arms reduction is finally being fulfilled. Clear and effective limits on missile defenses will be even more vital as the United States and the Soviet Union move on to deeper ST ART II reductions in their offensive forces. The ABM Treaty will provide the necessary building blocks for seizing the current opportunity for improved security at lower levels of confrontation. In that sense, the ABM Treaty is truly the "foundation for the future," as the title of this book suggests. The ABM debates of the 1980s have cooled somewhat. The Soviet Union has pledged to dismantle the Krasnoyarsk radar, and overwhelming majorities of both houses of Congress have offered the ABM Treaty strong support. With the dramatic warming of superpower relations, the idea of tearing up the treaty to pursue the Star Wars chimera appears increasingly far-fetched. But President Bush and Secretary of Defense Cheney still pay homage to a more limited form of President Reagan's Star Wars dream, declaring their intention to deploy a prohibited nationwide missile defense as soon as it is ready. The scandalous "reinterpretation" of the ABM Treaty has not yet been abandoned-an issue the Senate may be forced to address when it considers the ratification of ST ART. The long ABM controversy President Reagan sparked in 1983 is not yet over. From the inception of the Star Wars debate, the Arms Control Association has played a key role in building support for the ABM Treaty. Members of the Association's Board of Directors were repeatedly called upon by Congress to testify to the ABM Treaty's importance, and effectively refuted the case for the Reagan administration's efforts to reinterpret the treaty, and the arguments of those who would abandon the agreement entirely. The Association's staff provided a stream of information and research assistance to Congress in its effort to protect the ABM Treaty from attack, and served as a center of ABM expertise for the national press. The Association's magazine, Arms Control Today, provided constant coverage of the ABM issue, including a point-by point rebuttal of the Reagan administration's charges of widespread Soviet cheating on the treaty. In addition, the Association took a major part in the creation of the National Campaign to Save the ABM Treaty. To my mind, this book provides the most comprehensive and compelling defense of the ABM Treaty ever published. From "brilliant pebbles" to the "defense transition," from Krasnoyarsk to "other physical principles," all the arcana of the ABM debate are here, and explained in plain English. It is an effective antidote to the Star Wars contagion. Part I outlines the logic, history, and terms of the ABM Treaty, and describes the technology of both the U.S. Strategic Defense Initiative and Soviet missile defense programs. The threats facing the treaty, from reinterpretation to questionable compliance, are discussed in Part II. Part III then lays out a road map for the future, making the case for pursuing an ABM research program that remains within the traditional interpretation of the ABM Treaty, while pursuing new agreements to clarify and strengthen the ABM Treaty's restraints. On behalf of the Association, I would like to express particular thanks to Senior Research Analyst Matthew Bunn, the book's author, on whose tireless efforts the project's success depended. His encyclopedic knowledge of the subject and his keen appreciation for the interaction of its political, military, and technical dimensions enabled him to present the fundamental policy issues of the ABM debate in a remarkably clear and objective fashion. The Association is indeed fortunate that Mr. Bunn will bring his interdisciplinary talents to a broader range of issues as the new editor of Arms Control Today. Spurgeon M. Keeny, Jr., the Association's president and executive director, provided detailed direction and guidance throughout the project. James P. Rubin provided essential advice and assistance in the project's early stages while serving as the Association's assistant director for research. Ivo Daalder, vii Sidney Graybeal, Wolfgang Panofsky, John Pike, John Rhinelander, and Sandy Thomas each reviewed chapters in their particular areas of expertise. A succession of talented interns provided valuable research assistance, including Lorie Alexander, Gregg Kavett, Elizabeth Krantz, Andy Weiss, and Jon Welner. Cathie Lorenz and Gregory Webb performed the grueling task of converting the

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