The Continuing Quest for Missile Defense: When Lofty Goals Confront Reality
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NSIAD-92-91 Strategic Defense Initiative
I i nitcd Nt,;ttw (it~nc~ral Accwurrl,ing Officy _“.,.,...” ,,. ...II ._ _ -.- --.- .-. -.-..-.-...- --- .---..^._.._._..... -.--.---- ___-_-______ - ----- --.-. STRATEGIC DEFENSE / INITIATIVE Estimates of Brilliant Pebbles’ Effectiveness Are Based on Many Unproven Assumptions II146232 IM -“*“..““.._ .__*l.---.“..-.-_.~-- ~-_-- -. --- __I. -_.-..-..-- ) 1 (;nO/NSIAI)-!)~-Hl I/ _~_. .^........ ._-..-.___- .-__..... -.._. -_. __._.. _ ._ ._-.. ..^. .,._.. _ __....^ . .” . United States General Accounting Offlce GAO Washiugton, D.C. 20648 National Security and International Affairs Division B-223094 March 27,lQQZ The Honorable Sam Ntmn Chairman, Committee on Armed Services United States Senate Dear Mr. Chairman: This report responds to your request that we review the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization’s analyses of the effectiveness of Brilliant Pebbles, the proposed space-based weapon for the Global Protection Against Limited Strikes (GPALS)Strategic Defense System. The report discusses the role of computer simulations in assessing the effectiveness of the Brilliant Pebbles system. We are sending copies of this report to appropriate congressional committees, the Secretaries of Defense and the Air Force, and the Directors, Strategic Defense Initiative Organization and Office of Management and Budget. We will also make copies available to others, Please contact me at (202) 275-4268 if you or your staff have any questions concerning this report. Major contributors are listed in appendix II. Sincerely yours, Nancy R. Kingsbury Director Air Force Issues Executive Summary In January 199 1, the President directed that the Strategic Defense Initiative Purpose (SDI) program be refocused toward providing protection against limited ballistic missile strikes, whether deliberate, accidental, or unauthorized. -
Brilliant Pebbles Program
OFFICE OF THE INSPECTOR GENERAL BRILLIANT PEBBLES PROGRAM Report No. 94-084 April 14, 1994 Department of Defense Additional Copies To obtain additional copies of this report, contact the Reports Distribution Unit, Audit Planning and Technical Support Directorate, at (703) 614-6303 (DSN 224 6303) or FAX (703) 614-8542. Suggestions for Future Audits To suggest ideas for or request future audits, contact the Planning and Coordination Branch, Audit Planning and Technical Support Directorate, at (703) 614-1868 (DSN 224-1868) or FAX (703) 614-8542. Ideas and requests can also be mailed to: Inspector General, Department of Defense OAIG-AUD (ATTN: APTS Audit Suggestions) 400 Army Navy Drive (Room 801) Arlington, Virginia 22202-2884 DoDHotline To report fraud, waste, or abuse, call the DoD Hotline at (800) 424-9098 (DSN 223-5080) or write to the DoD Hotline, The Pentagon, Washington, D.C. 20301-1900. The identity of writers and callers is fully protected. Acronyms BMDO Ballistic Missile Defense Organization GAO General Accounting Office GPALS Global Protection Against Limited Strikes OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense SDIO Strategic Defense Initiative Organization INSPECTOR GENERAL DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 400 ARMY NA VY DRIVE ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA 22202-2884 Report No. 94-084 April 14, 1994 MEMORANDUM FOR UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR ACQUISffiON AND TECHNOLOGY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF THE AIR FORCE (FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND COMPTROLLER) DIRECTOR, BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE ORGANIZATION SUBJECT: Brilliant Pebbles Program (Project No. 3AS-0077) Introduction We are providing this final memorandum report for your information and use. The Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDI0)1 began the Brilliant Pebbles acquisition strategy in June 1990. -
What Did We Get for Our $30-Billion Investment in SDI/BMD? I
What Did We Get For Our $30-Billion Investment In SDI/BMD? i What Did We Get For Our $30-Billion Investment in SDI/BMD? James A. Abrahamson Henry F. Cooper September 1993 ©National Institute for Public Policy, 1999 ii What Did We Get For Our $30-Billion Investment In SDI/BMD? SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The basic issue addressed by this paper has to do with the value added by the existence of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), acknowledging that, during the same timeframe, something on the order of $30-billion would have been spent pursuing research on the same technologies somewhere in the Department of Defense (DOD) anyway. As is supported in detail in the following text, SDI has been enormously productive by many standards and from many perspectives. From a geopolitical/geostrategic point-of-view, there is little question but that SDI induced the leadership of the former Soviet Union to return to the negotiating table after their 1983 walk-out and negotiate seriously toward deep reductions in nuclear arms, producing the first nuclear arms control agreements in history to do so. A number of authoritative sources, including former senior Soviet officials, have stated that Ronald Reagan's highly visible commitment to SDI was a significant factor in persuading Mikhail Gorbachev to give up the arms competition and change the course of the former Soviet Union from confrontation to cooperation with the West, hastening the end of the Cold War. What are these achievements worth? Certainly many times the $30-billion invested over the past 10-years. On January 29, 1990, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney announced a $167-billion reduction in the FY1990-94 Defense plan for the next 5-years alone. -
China's Strategic Modernization: Implications for the United States
CHINA’S STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES Mark A. Stokes September 1999 ***** The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave., Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report may be obtained from the Publications and Production Office by calling commercial (717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or via the Internet at [email protected] ***** Selected 1993, 1994, and all later Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI Homepage for electronic dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is: http://carlisle-www.army. mil/usassi/welcome.htm ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please let us know by e-mail at [email protected] or by calling (717) 245-3133. ISBN 1-58487-004-4 ii CONTENTS Foreword .......................................v 1. Introduction ...................................1 2. Foundations of Strategic Modernization ............5 3. China’s Quest for Information Dominance ......... 25 4. -
I. the ABM Treaty: Cornerstone of Security and Arms Control
Table of Contents Preface .................................. viii PART ONE: POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY OF MISSILE DEFENSE I. The ABM Treaty: Cornerstone of Security and Arms Control ....... 4 The Promise of Protection and the Reality of Deterrence Missile Defenses and the Arms Race Predictability Defenses and Arms Control Missile Defenses and the Risk of Nuclear War The ABM Treaty and the Current Issues Toward a Defense Transition? ....... .8 II. The History of Nuclear Defense and the ABM Treaty 12 Early ABM Systems Sentinel, Safeguard, and SALT The SALT Negotiations From SALT I to Star Wars SDI and the New ABM Debate The Success of the ABM Treaty . 16 Ill. How the ABM Treaty Works . 20 IV. The Strategic Defense Initiative . 24 Criteria for Deployment The Phased Deployment The Technology of SDI The Boost Phase The Post-Boost Phase The Midcourse Phase Terminal Defense Putting the Layers Together The Responsive Threat The Battle in Space The Costs of SDI Conclusions Phases of a Missile's Flight . 26 The Technology of Near-Term Deployment . 28 Brilliant Pebbles: A New Miracle Weapon? . 32 Technical Progress in SDI ...... 37 How Much Has Changed Since 1972? . 44 V. The Soviet ABM Program . 48 An SDI Spending Gap? Air Defense and Civil Defense Past Soviet ABM Programs The Soviet ABM Program Today Traditional Technologies Exotic Technologies Lasers Other Exotic Weapons Computers and Sensors iii PART TWO: THE EROSION OF THE ABM TREATY VI. The Reinterpretation of the ABM Treaty ............................58 The Reinterpretation Controversy Treaty Interpretation The Treaty's Text The Negotiating Record The Subsequent Practice of the Parties The Ratification Record and the Senate's Power The Security Impact of the Reinterpretation Letter from Negotiators of the ABM Treaty . -
Frequently Asked Questions About Ballistic Missile Defense
Frequently Asked Questions A Guide about Ballistic Missile Defense This Guide is based on information contained in the 2009 Independent Working Group Report entitled Missile Defense, the Space Relationship, and the Twenty-First Century which can be downloaded at www.ifpa.org. The purpose of the Guide is to address the most often asked questions and to provide information about mis- sile defense. What is Ballistic Missile Defense? n A ballistic missile defense system detects, tracks, intercepts and destroys io t incoming ballistic missiles and/or their warhead payloads. A fully opera- s e tional defense consists of sensors to detect a missile launch and to track u q 1 the missile and warhead; interceptors to disable or destroy the missile or warhead; and a command and control system. A ballistic missile and/ or its warhead can be destroyed by an interceptor’s fragmentation war- head that explodes in its vicinity or by more modern “hit-to-kill,” direct impact technologies —i.e., by “hitting a bullet with a bullet.” Both types of intercept are known as “kinetic kill.” Work is also progressing on di- rected energy technologies such as lasers, which can destroy a missile and its warhead at the speed of light. Missile defense systems can be deployed on the ground, in the air, at sea, or in space and destroy missiles and their payloads during their three stages of flight: i.e., the boost, midcourse, and terminal phase. In theboost phase just after launch, the missile is especially vulnerable because it is relatively slow moving and it emits bright exhaust gases that are compar- atively easy for sensors to detect and track. -
Affordable Spacecraft: Design and Launch Alternatives (Part 7 of 8)
Chapter 5 Microspacecraft Microspacecraft would be satellites or deep-space the accelerations to which electromagnetic launch probes weighing no more than about 10 kilograms would subject them. (22 pounds).1 Tens or hundreds could be usedto Placed in different orbits or trajectories, they measure magnetism, gravity, or solar wind at widely could trade off field of view for resolution, or vice separated points simultaneously. A swarm of differ- versa. For example, one MOC microspacecraft in a ent microspacecraft could obtain detailed radio polar orbit about Mars could serve as a Martian images of galaxies, while others could be used for weather satellite, providing two-color images with a communications, gamma-ray astronomy, or plane- resolution of 5 to 10 kilometers (km )-sufficient to tary photoreconnaissance. resolve Martian clouds. A similar MOC microspace- They would not require development of new craft in a lower orbit could serve as a mapper, launch systems; they could be launched like buck- providing two-color images of a smaller field of shot on existing small launch vehicles. However, if view with better resolution—100 meters (m). In time there were a demand for launching thousands per it could map the entire planet. A similar MOC year, it might be cheaper to launch them on microspacecraft in an even lower orbit about the laser-powered rockets (see figure 5-1 ), if these prove Moon could provide a two-color global map of the feasible. Moon with 10 m resolution. Existing global maps of the Moon currently show no features smaller than Extremely rugged microspacecraft, constructed several hundred meters. -
SDI: a Basis for a Multi-Layered Defense Against Ballistic Missiles
SDI: A Basis for a Multi-Layered Defense Against Ballistic Missiles by Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,440, February 6, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI, or Star Wars) program was developed in the US in the 1980s with the aim of providing a hermetic defense against Soviet intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles. SDI did not reach final implementation and was canceled in 1993. It nevertheless created a basis for the development of a multi-layered theater defense against ballistic missiles. That defense was realized by Israel in its development of the Arrow ballistic missile interceptor system and other systems to defend against rockets and short-range missiles. Cold War-era tensions between the US and the USSR that began in the 1950s reached a peak in the early 1980s, surpassing even those of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. In March 1983, President Ronald Reagan called the USSR the “evil empire” and declared the establishment of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), also known as Star Wars. SDI had two purposes: to hermetically protect the US against Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and bankrupt a USSR unable to afford an extremely expensive arms race. The practical task of SDI was to find ways to neutralize Soviet ballistic missiles before they hit their targets. Methods included ground and space missile launch systems, lasers, and particle beam weapons, as well as systems that support the interceptors such as command and control systems, computers, radars, and other detectors. SDI aimed to deploy an extensive array of satellites and battle centers throughout the world to detect and destroy Soviet missiles in real time before they hit. -
Nasa Headquarters Code Q
c NASA HEADQUARTERS CODE Q SPACE FXIGHT RISK DATA COLLECTION/ANALYSIS PROJECT FINAL REPORT 4 6* cu v, m cp I c 4 u o* C RISK AND RELIABILIW 3 DATABASE NASA Space Flight Risk Data Col lection/Analysis Project FINAL REPORT Prepared For: NASA Headquarters, Code Q 300 E Street, S.W. Washington, DC 20546 Prepared By: Dimensions international, Incorporated 4501 Ford Avenue, Suite 1200 Alexandria, Virginia 22302 and Science Applications International Corporation 8 West 40th Street, 14th Floor New York, New York 10018 TABLE OF CONTENTS ParaTraDh Description Pane 1.o PURPOSE 1 2.0 BACKGROUND 1 2.1 Project Summary 3 2.2 Project Process 4 3.0 DATA PRODUCTS 6 3.1 Launch Vehicle Notebooks 6 3.1.1 Notebook I 7 3.1.2 Notebook II 7 3.1.3 Notebook 111 7 3.1.4 Notebook IV 8 3.1.5 Notebook V 8 3.1.6 Notebook VI 8 3.1.7 Data Encoding Worksheets 9 3.1.8 Data Analysis Summary Reports 11 3.1.8.1 Failure Probability Confidence Measure 11 3.1.9 Typical Graphs 14 3.2 Database Files 17 3.2.1 Data Encoding Database Files 17 3.2.2 Risk and Reliability Database 22 4.0 OVERVIEW OF LAUNCH VEHICLES 22 4.1 Atlas 22 4.2 Brilliant Pebbles 25 4.3 Delta 26 4.4 Gemini 29 4.5 J u p iter/J u no 30 4.6 Pershing It 30 4.7 Polaris 31 4.8 Prospector (Joust) 32 4.9 Red Tigress I & I1 32 4.10 Saturn 33 4.1 1 Space Shuttle 33 4.12 Starbi rd 34 4.1 3 TMD Countermeasure 34 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Parapraph Description Pane 4.14 Vanguard 34 5 .O SUMMARY 35 5.1 Failure Summary 35 5.1.1 Launch Vehicle Failure Probabilities 36 5.1.2 Generic Failure Totals 37 5.1.3 Failure Sequence 40 5.2 Preliminary -
Missile Defense for the 21St Century by Gregory H. Canavan
BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE TECHNICAL STUDIES SERIES MISSILE DEFENSE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY Gregory H. Canavan i Published by The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002–4999 800-544-4843 heritage.org Copyright © 2003 The Heritage Foundation ISBN 0-89195-261-6 Cover design by Mark Hurlburt Layout by Michelle Fulton Smith Charts and Graphs by Russell Martin Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE / VII LIST OF FIGURES / VIII LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS / IX INTRODUCTION / XV TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MISSILE DEFENSE / 1 Early Missile Defense and Offensive Proliferation: Offensive Proliferation / 3 Early Technologies and Systems: NIKE Systems; Sentinel; Safeguard / 5 Uncertainties / 16 Summary of Developments in Nuclear Phases / 19 DEVELOPMENTS DURING THE 1970S / 23 The ABM Treaty / 23 U.S. Army Programs and Hit-to-Kill Technology / 24 Space-Based Laser for Boost-Phase Intercept / 27 Summary of Developments During the Interim Program / 28 DEVELOPMENTS DURING THE 1980S / 29 Strategic Defense Initiative: Exploration Phase / 29 Strategic Defense System Phase I / 32 Brilliant Pebbles / 37 Brilliant Pebbles in Midcourse and Terminal / 42 Summary of Developments During SDI / 45 GLOBAL PROTECTION AGAINST LIMITED STRIKES / 47 Scope / 47 Elements / 48 Development and Testing / 50 Navy Contributions / 53 iii Ballistic Missile Defense Technical Studies -
Missile Defense 2020
COVER PHOTO MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY APRIL 2017 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org Missile Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 Defense 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com 2020 Next Steps for Defending the Homeland PRINCIPAL AUTHORS CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR THOMAS KARAKO WES RUMBAUGH IAN WILLIAMS A REPORT OF THE CSIS MISSILE DEFENSE PROJECT ISBN 978-1-4422-7989-6 Ë|xHSLEOCy279896z v*:+:!:+:! APRIL 2017 Missile Defense 2020 Next Steps for Defending the Homeland PRINCIPAL AUTHORS CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR Thomas Karako Wes Rumbaugh Ian Williams A REPORT OF THE CSIS MISSILE DEFENSE PROJ ECT Lanham • Boulder • New York • London About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, DC. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. -
Strategic Defense Initiative
THOMAS B. COUGHLIN, LARRY J. CRAWFORD, JOHN DASSOULAS, MICHAEL D. GRIFFIN, PETER E. PARTRIDGE, and MAX R. PETERSON STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE The Applied Physics Laboratory first became involved with the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) in April 1984. Seven programs were initiated, five of which have resulted in launches; another is nearing a launch date. The teamwork between SDIO and APL, along with many other subcontractors, began with the Delta 180 program, the fIrst in a series known as the Delta programs. The Delta series set new standards for accomplishing orbital missions in extremely short periods. Although the seven programs are somewhat diverse, the constant theme throughout was to understand and develop sensors that SDro could use in a deployed architecture and that could be used from ascent through the midcourse phase of a booster trajectory. DELTA 180 The Delta 180 Program was pawned by a rare con Griffin and Mr. Dassoulas met to discuss this new op junction of circum tances: a major national need; the portunity; with the Director's approval, APl agreed to under new, forward-looking Strategic Defense Initiative Orga take a six-week tudy to define a near-term space inter nization (sOJO); available funding; adaptable hardware; cept for SDiO. The only guidelines were that the mission and, most important, an innovative and imaginative comply with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, that group of people in government, in industry, and at APl it "look down, shoot down," and that it be accomplished who became the Delta 180 team. This team became a within two years; if expanded to thirty months, SDIO driving force in the follow-on Delta 181, Delta 183 , and would lose interest.