Global Market Forecast 2000 - 2019 July 2000 1 The Airbus Global Market Forecast can also be found on the Internet at http://www.airbus.com 31707 Blagnac Cedex France Telephone +33/(0)5 61 93 33 33 © Airbus Industrie 2000 All rights reserved AI/CP 390.0031/00 The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the assumptions shown and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown the Company will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. Printed in France Contents 1. Forecast highlights 4 2. Key forecast parameters 8 3. Introducing the GMF 9 4. Demand for air travel 12 5. Air transport operational evolution 15 6. Fleet renewal 21 7. World passenger fleet development 23 8. Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries: 27 - Regional jets 31 - Mainline single-aisles 32 - 200/250-seaters 33 - Mid-sized & large twin-aisles 35 - Very large aircraft 36 9. Air cargo forecast 41 Appendices A.Geographical regions & airlines analysed 58 B. Route network development 61 C. Passenger market segmentation 62 D.Seat supply analysis 64 E. Passenger traffic forecast methodology 66 & results F. Aircraft replacement methodology 70 G.Detailed passenger fleet results: - Ten years: 2000 to 2009 72 - Twenty years: 2000 to 2019 74 H.Cargo forecast methodology 76 I. Cargo forecast results 83 3 2000 Global Market Forecast 1. Forecast highlights During the last year since the issue of Airbus Industrie's previous Global Market Forecast (GMF), economic forecasters have become somewhat more cautious regarding the prospects for long-term economic growth. Nevertheless the results of the latest GMF confirm Airbus' confidence in the continued strength of the civil aircraft market over the next twenty years, provided ways and means can be found to ease the problems caused by congestion. A significant role in the development of the world fleet will be played by a new generation of aircraft larger and more economical than anything flying today, and designed to be compatible with existing airport infrastructure. Airbus' latest GMF covers the evolution year by year during the period 2000 - 2019 of the fleets of passenger and combi aircraft with at least 70 seats, as well as dedicated freighters, operated by the world's largest 228 airlines and 49 subsidiaries, together with 187 additional cargo operators. In response to widespread demand, this summary document presents the results for the ten-year period to 2009 as well as for the full twenty years covered by the forecast. The major predictions are that: l Driven mainly by continuing economic (GDP) growth and reduced fares, passenger traffic (revenue passenger-kilometres) will grow at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent during the next ten years. Growth will slow as markets mature, to average 4.6 per cent through the following decade, resulting in twenty-year average annual RPK growth of 4.9 per cent through 2019, when the airlines will be generating 160 per cent more RPKs than today. l Cargo traffic will be stimulated by the development of global e-commerce and manufacturing trends, and freight tonne-kilometres will grow more rapidly than passenger traffic. FTKs will increase at an average annual rate of 6.1 per cent through 2009, slowing to 5.3 per cent annually during the following ten years. Twenty-year annual FTK growth will average 5.7 per cent through 2019. l Modest increases in speed, load factor and utilisation will result in improvements in productivity. The number of annual RPKs produced by each seat installed in passenger aircraft will increase from about 1.66 million in 1999 to 1.8 million in 2009 and more than 1.9 million in 2019. Similarly, the number of annual FTKs produced by each tonne of capacity in freighters will increase from just under 1 million in 1999 to 1.14 million in 2009 and 1.27 million in 2019. l Consequently, to accommodate growing demand, the number of seats in passenger service will increase from 1.85 million today to 4 Forecast highlights 2.8 million in 2009 and nearly 4.2 million in 2019. At the same time the capacity of the dedicated freighter fleet will grow from nearly 69,000 tonnes to 113,000 tonnes in 2009 and 184,000 in 2019. l As passenger airlines increase frequencies on existing routes and operate additional routes, the number of departures will increase more rapidly than in the past. Annual departures will increase at an average 3.8 per cent per year through 2009. Limited infrastructure capacity will constrain further growth in departures to just 2.7 per cent per year through the next decade, resulting in a twenty-year average annual growth in departures of 3.3 per cent through 2019, when the airlines will be making 90 per cent more daily departures than today. l Since the number of departures will be unable to keep pace with the growth of traffic, the airlines will have to offer more seats per departure. From the current average of 158, seats per departure will reach 168 in 2009 and 190 in 2019; an overall increase of 32. l Smaller aircraft tend to make more flights than larger ones, so the average number of seats per aircraft will need to grow more rapidly than seats per departure. From the current 179 seats, average aircraft size will increase at an accelerating rate to 191 in 2009 and 217 in 2019; an increase of 38. Thus, over the next twenty years, seats per aircraft will increase by 19 per cent more than seats per departure. l As a result, to provide the required increase in capacity, the number of passenger aircraft in service will increase from some 10,350 in 1999 to 14,820 in 2009 and 19,170 in 2019. The world jetliner fleet will grow by nearly 11,000 aircraft World fleet change 2000 - 2019 (2000 - 2009 in brackets) 14,661 New 703 (7,337) 15,364 (271) (7,608) PassengerPassenger Freighter Fleet Converted FleetFleet 2,389 Recycled (1,166) 3,174 (1,644) Retired 3,448 4,601 1,153 (1,705) (703) (2,408) l By 2009, some 4,520 of the passenger aircraft currently in service will have been replaced by their current operators as they seek to 5 2000 Global Market Forecast maintain a youthful fleet. Of these, 1,640 will be recycled back into the world fleet, leaving a need for delivery through 2009 of a total of about 7,340 new passenger aircraft. l During the following ten years another 4,500 aircraft will be replaced, of which 1,530 will be recycled, leaving a need for another 7,320 new aircraft for growth and fleet renewal. So over the twenty years through 2019 the airlines will take delivery of a total of about 14,660 new passenger aircraft. And of the 9,000 aircraft replaced during this period, almost 2,400 will be converted to freighters and enter dedicated cargo operations. Nearly 15,400 new aircraft will be delivered ... 2000 - 2009 2000 - 2019 70- & 85-seater regional jets 437* 692* Mainline single-aisle types like the Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321 4,330 7,570 200/250-seaters like the Airbus A300, A310 and smaller model A330s 1,127 3,046 Larger twin-aisles like the Airbus A330-300 and A340 1,083 2,118 Very large and economical aircraft like the Airbus A3XX 360 1,235 Total passenger aircraft 7,337 14,661 Freighters 271 703 Passenger + freighter aircraft 7,608 15,364 * many more of these aircraft will be needed by smaller airlines and current turboprop operators not covered by the GMF l The average delivery rate of 733 new passenger aircraft per year projected through the first ten years of the forecast will be sustained through the second decade in terms of units. However the progressive trend towards larger aircraft means that the dollar value of deliveries in the second decade will be greater. l The biggest share (35 per cent) of deliveries of passenger aircraft will go to airlines in North America. European airlines will take 30 per cent, and Asia-Pacific airlines 24 per cent, leaving just 11 per cent for airlines in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. l Higher growth in air travel markets outside the USA means that the percentage of the world passenger fleet operated by airlines based in North America will decline from its current 43 per cent to 36 per cent in 2019, while the share of airlines in Europe and Asia- Pacific rises. In terms of capacity, the most spectacular gain will be made by the Asia-Pacific airlines, whose share of world seats will grow from 24 to 29 per cent. 6 Forecast highlights l The world freighter fleet will grow from 1,510 aircraft with an average capacity of 45.5 tonnes in 1999 to 2,240 aircraft with an average capacity of 50.5 tonnes in 2009. During this period some 700 freighters, having reached the end of their economic lives, will be retired, creating the need for acquisition of a total of 1,440 aircraft, including 1,170 passenger-to-freighter conversions and 270 new aircraft. l From 2009 to 2019 the freighter fleet will grow to 3,450 aircraft with an average capacity of 53.3 tonnes, while another 450 old aircraft will be retired. Of the 1,650 aircraft delivered, 1,220 will be conversions and 430 new freighters. Thus a total of some 700 new dedicated freighters will be delivered during the next twenty years.