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I. Economic Environment

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I. Economic Environment Maldives WT/TPR/S/221/Rev.1 Page 1 I. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT (1) INTRODUCTION 1. The Maldives is a physically and economically small vulnerable developing country, heavily dependant on international trade for its prosperity. Notwithstanding high import tariffs, its main source of tax revenues, trade in goods and services is expected to account for approximately 150% of GDP in 2009, placing the Maldives among the most open economies in the world. 2. Despite the adverse effects of the tsunami in 2004, real GDP growth averaged 7.4 % between 2003 and 2008, although it is expected to contract by 1.3% in 2009 (Table I.1). To be able to sustain growth, the Maldives needs to diversify the economy, especially in light of its expected graduation from LDC status in 2011. Diversification would require significant private-sector involvement, for which a conducive business environment needs to be created. In this regard, the major role of the State as a producer of goods and services needs to be reconsidered. The shortage of skilled labour and weak public institutions constitute impediments to private sector investment and need to be addressed. 3. The other serious constraint on growth is the large fiscal deficit and the consequent level of public debt. The tax system needs to generate sufficient revenues (in as neutral a fashion as possible) to finance the Maldives' developmental needs (education, health, environment, etc.). Thus, there needs to be a broadening of the tax base and a shift away from the heavy reliance on border taxes and to a lesser extent, land leases. This would require the introduction of a broad-based value-added tax on consumption and the expedited implementation of the business-profits tax. In tandem current expenditure would need to be curtailed through a combination of civil service reform and scaling back of subsidies. Furthermore, fiscal consolidation would provide scope for the authorities to implement their envisaged environmental programmes and create a sovereign wealth fund (see below). 4. During the period under review, growth was driven mainly by a resurgence in tourism, which is the Maldives' main services export, and to a lesser extent construction. Consequently, GDP per capita rose from US$2,429 in 2003 to US$4,072 in 2008 and is expected to be US$4,214 in 2009.1 The robust growth has also resulted in an improvement in some of the Maldives' social indicators, with life expectancy rising from 65 years in 2003 to 68 years in 2008 and absolute poverty (as defined by the proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day) declining from 3% in 1997 to 1% in 2004.2 However unemployment increased considerably to over 14% in 2006.3 The Maldives has maintained its ranking of medium human development in the UNDP's HDI index. The World Bank ranked the Maldives as the best country in South Asia for doing business.4 5. Given the Maldives' openness, narrow economic base and associated vulnerability to exogenous shocks, several important short-term and long-term challenges threaten sustained growth. These challenges include significant increases in the fiscal (and thus the current account) deficit and the resulting rise in public debt to over 55% of GDP. With the Maldives expected to graduate from its least developed country (LDC) status in 2011, the erosion of export preferences to the EC could also have adverse implications for growth. State involvement persists in most sectors of the economy and appears to crowd out the private sector, whose investment and greater involvement is necessary to diversify the economy. On a longer-term horizon, global warming and the consequent rise in sea 1 It appears that income inequality between Male and the atolls is large, with the Gini coefficient at 0.41 in 2004, which was significantly higher that other countries in the region. 2 UNDP (2007). 3 Asian Development Bank Statistics. Viewed at: http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_ Indicators/2008/pdf/mld.pdf [1 June 2009]. 4 World Bank (2009). WT/TPR/S/221/Rev.1 Trade Policy Review Page 2 levels threaten the Maldives.5 In addition to the Government's environmental goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2019, the President intends to create a sovereign wealth fund from money earned from tourism to facilitate relocation of the population, should rising sea levels inundate the islands. The creation of such a fund, together with the financing of the Government's more immediate environmental objectives, would require considerable fiscal consolidation. Table I.1 Selected macroeconomic indicators, 2003-09 a b 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 National accounts (Percentage change) Real GDP (at 1995 prices) 8.5 9.5 -4.6 18.0 7.2 5.8 -1.3 XGS/GDP (%) (at current market price) 80.0 84.0 59.8 80.6 78.8 76.7 57.2 MGS/GDP (%) (at current market price) 77.2 93.0 115.9 114.3 117.1 124.5 93.1 Prices and interest rates (Per cent) Inflation (CPI, % change) .. .. .. 3.5 7.4 12.3 .. Male, only -1.3 -1.7 1.3 2.7 6.8 12.0 .. Loans rate 7.5-14.0 7.75-13.0 7.5-13.0 7.5-13.0 7.5-13.0 5.5-13.0 .. Savings deposit rate 2-5 1.5-3.0 1.5-3.0 1.5-3.0 1.5-3.0 1.25-3.0 .. c Money and credit (end period) (Percentage change) Narrow money (M1) 11.5 19.7 22.5 22.2 18.8 38.1 .. Broad money (M2) 14.5 32.8 11.7 20.6 23.7 23.6 .. Credit to private sector (households) 6.8 57.6 54.5 49.5 49.2 33.0 .. Exchange rate Rf/US$ (annual average) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 .. (Per cent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) Overall fiscal balance -3.4 -1.6 -10.9 -6.8 -4.7 -12.6 -7.4 Current balance 6.7 5.5 -9.3 -3.2 -0.5 -4.9 -17.3 Total revenue and grants 34.8 34.5 48.1 52.5 56.1 48.1 59.6 Current revenue 33.1 33.5 39.1 44.7 48.1 44.4 33.5 Tax revenue 14.3 16.6 18.0 20.2 21.2 21.0 16.3 Capital revenue 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 22.7 Grants 1.4 0.7 8.6 7.4 7.7 3.5 3.3 Expenditure and net lending 38.2 36.0 59.0 59.3 60.8 60.7 67.0 Current expenditure 26.5 28.1 48.4 47.9 48.6 49.2 50.9 Capital expenditure 13.6 10.0 11.8 12.4 13.1 12.5 16.2 Net lending -1.8 -2.0 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 -0.0 Government total debt (end-period) 46.1 43.1 52.6 50.9 52.3 53.9 52.5 Domestic debt 16.5 12.6 18.7 18.5 19.0 22.7 14.0 External sector Current account balance -4.5 -15.8 -36.4 -33.0 -41.5 -51.7 -35.9 Net merchandise trade -37.9 -49.4 -65.9 -64.5 -69.9 -70.7 -51.2 Merchandise exports 22.0 23.3 21.6 24.6 21.6 26.2 19.9 Merchandise imports 59.8 72.7 87.4 89.1 91.5 96.9 71.2 Services balance 45.0 45.1 14.6 35.0 36.0 28.2 20.1 Financial account 7.3 19.7 35.2 32.1 41.9 39.6 46.8 Table I.1 (cont'd) 5 The Maldives consists of nearly 1,200 islands, of which 200 are inhabited and support a population of approximately 305,000. The average height of the Maldives is 1.5 metres above sea level making it susceptible to rising sea levels (which are simulated to rise by 0.15-1.0 metres between 2000 and 2100), cyclones, and tidal tsunamis. Biodiversity Maldives online information. Viewed at: http://www.biodiversity.mv/environment/ index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=44&Itemid= [14 July 2009]. Maldives WT/TPR/S/221/Rev.1 Page 3 a b 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 d Direct investment 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 Balance of payments 3.8 5.7 -2.3 4.9 7.3 -5.4 10.9 Merchandise exports (% change) 14.9 19.1 -10.7 39.4 1.2 45.0 -20.1 Merchandise imports (% change) 20.2 36.3 16.1 24.4 18.3 26.6 -22.7 Service credit (% change) 19.0 17.6 -36.4 70.9 17.6 8.5 -20.8 Tourism (% change) 19.1 17.3 -39.1 78.8 17.6 5.6 -22.3 Service debit (% change) 8.3 30.8 35.4 8.5 16.5 29.3 -16.4 Gross international reserves (US$ million) 160.3 204.4 187.1 232.2 309.1 241.3 .. in months of imports 4.1 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.4 2.1 .. Total external debt (US$ million) 289.5 331.8 397.1 574.8 840.1 969.2 .. of which medium- and long-term 272.9 311.6 309.6 362.3 420.0 471.7 591.8 e Debt service ratio 3.7 4.2 6.4 4.1 4.5 4.5 10.1 .
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