DOCSLIB.ORG

Investigating Confidence-Building Measures in the Asia–Pacific Region

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Investigating Confidence-Building Measures in the Asia–Pacific Region Investigating Confidence-Building Measures in the Asia–Pacific Region Ranjeet K. Singh, editor Report No. 28 May 1999 Copyright©1999 11 Dupont Circle, NW Ninth Floor Washington, DC 20036 phone 202.223.5956 fax 202.238.9604 [email protected] www.stimson.org About the Project The Henry L. Stimson Center has been working to promote confidence-building measures (CBMs) in regions of tension since 1991. Our CBM Project programming now focuses primarily on India, Pakistan, China, and Japan. We have also carried out workshops in Latin America and the Middle East and briefings for officials and visitors from these regions. The Center’s CBM programming has six main components: C First, we hold a series of meetings on CBMs in Washington for diplomats and military attachés, media, executive and legislative officials, and representatives from nongovernmental organizations. These meetings provide an opportunity to discuss problem-solving ideas in a congenial setting. C Second, we commission papers to stimulate thinking and problem-solving CBM approaches within regions of interest. We are interested in developing the theory as well as the practice of CBMs. Towards these ends we compare CBM experiences in different regions. We are also interested in collaborations across borders to encourage networking. We publish commissioned work as funding permits. C Third, with local co-sponsorship, we convene workshops on CBMs within countries of interest, reaching key target audiences: government officials, military officers, journalists, academics, and researchers. C Fourth, we host a Visiting Fellows program, whereby talented individuals from India, Pakistan, Japan, and China carry out research and writing on the theory and practice of CBMs at the Stimson Center. C Fifth, we publish and distribute widely materials on CBMs. We also place our CBM publications and non-published work on the Stimson Center’s website (www.stimson.org). C Sixth, we moderate a cross-border internet dialogue, known as the Southern Asia Internet Forum, designed to generate open dialogue, and broaden the scope of discussion, among individuals working on security issues in the region. Support for The Stimson Center’s CBM Project is provided by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the W. Alton Jones Foundation, the Ford Foundation, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Table of Contents About the Project ....................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................v List of Abbreviations .................................................... vii Introduction ............................................................ ix Benjamin L. Self and Ranjeet K. Singh China’s Approach to Confidence-Building Measures ............................. 1 Kenneth W. Allen Confidence-Building Measures and Japanese Security Policy ...................... 25 Benjamin L. Self The Spratly Islands Dispute in the South China Sea: Problems, Policies, and Prospects for Diplomatic Accommodation .................................... 53 Christopher C. Joyner Military Confidence-Building Measures Across the Taiwan Strait . 111 Kenneth W. Allen Notes on Contributors List of Abbreviations APEC Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation ARATS Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CAR Central Asian Republics CBMs Confidence-building measures CSCAP Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone JDA Japan Defense Agency LAC Line of Actual Control LDP Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) LOS 1982 Law of the Sea Convention MSDF Maritime Self-Defense Forces (Japan) ODA Official Development Assistance OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe PLA People’s Liberation Army (China) PRC People’s Republic of China (China) ROC Republic of China (Taiwan) ROK Republic of Korea SDF Self-Defense Force (Japan) SEF Straits Exchange Foundation (Taiwan) TMD Theater Missile Defense Introduction Benjamin L. Self and Ranjeet K. Singh The Henry L. Stimson Center has been supporting research and writing on the theory and practice of confidence-building measures (CBMs) since 1991. CBMs are diverse national security toolsCsuch as hotlines, people-to-people exchanges, prior notification of military exercises, and cross-border economic projectsCthat can help defuse tension, resolve misunderstanding, and promote cooperation to address security concerns. The Stimson Center=s Handbook of Confidence-Building Measures for Regional Security, now in its third edition, explores the origins of CBMs during the Cold War in Europe and their adaptation to various regions around the world. It includes an essay by Ralph Cossa, Pacific Forum-CSIS, on CBMs in the AsiaBPacific Region, focusing on region-wide CBMs under the auspices of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP). In 1997, the Stimson Center published a collection of essays by Chinese specialists on arms control and regional security issues, entitled Chinese Perspectives on Confidence-Building Measures. This report further extended the Center=s work on CBMs into East Asia. The present collection of essays, Investigating Confidence-Building Measures in the AsiaBPacific Region, provides detailed analysis of the role of CBMs in crucial regional security challenges and their use by key regional actors. The Stimson Center is particularly interested in the use of CBMs by China and Japan, and the relevance of CBMs to problems such as the South China Sea and relations across the Taiwan Strait. Kenneth Allen=s first essay in this publication, AChina=s Approach to Confidence-Building Measures,@ looks at how the People=s Republic of China (PRC) and the People=s Liberation Army (PLA) have viewed, negotiated and implemented CBMs as part of their security relations with their neighbors. Included in the essay are comparisons of various ways China has used military CBMs in dealing with different countries in the past and how this has evolved over the past two decades. The Chinese foreign military relations program has undergone profound changes which have allowed them to increase their relations by leaps and bounds in the 1990's. As China=s role and involvement continue to be at the forefront of security issues in the AsiaBPacific region as well as its relationship to the West, careful application of CBMs is of increasing importance. x Introduction The second essay, by Benjamin Self, reviews Japan=s application of CBMs in multilateral, bilateral and unilateral contexts, and investigates the usefulness of a CBM-intensive approach to enhance Japanese security. The essay, AConfidence-Building Measures and Japanese Security Policy,@ explores how the Japanese cultural and historical views of defense since World War II have hindered its use of CBMs and its ability to promote trust and security in the region. Japan=s role in its relationship with the US has complicated this picture given the difficulty that goes along with professing to be peaceful yet being protected under the US nuclear umbrella. Use and promotion of CBMs have become essential ingredients in allowing Japan to overcome the barriers which have prevented it from becoming a major player in defense issues, and provide a basis for leadership in building confidence with its neighbors, especially with the rising and potentially revisionist China. With proposals being passed in the Diet on the Self Defense Force, the time is ripe for Japan to adopt a new approach. This essay provides recommendations for CBM use in Japan that will help move Japan into the 21st century. The next two essays discuss the competing claims to territory in the South China Sea and the relationship between China and Taiwan. In AThe Spratly Islands Dispute in the South China Sea: Problems, Policies and Prospects for Diplomatic Accomodation,@ Christopher Joyner of the Georgetown University Law Center first describes the geographic and historical complexity of the Spratly Island dispute, the most significant of the various contested island groups. Placing the claims by each of the seven parties in the context of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, he then reviews the diplomatic and military aspects of the disputes. Against the backdrop of the energy, environmental, and economic factors that shape the claimants= interests in the potential resources of the South China Sea and their willingness to negotiate and compromise, Professor Joyner explores how CBMs and other forms of preventive diplomacy might help reduce tension and contribute to peaceful resolution of this complex issue. The final essay, AMilitary Confidence-Building Measures Across the Taiwan Strait,@ also by Kenneth Allen, is the most forward-looking, exploring how the increased use of military CBMs by mainland China opens up the possibility for military CBMs across the Taiwan Strait. While the short-term expectations for any such developments remain low, Allen lays out several specific steps that the two sides might take to reduce tension and prevent potentially disastrous mistakes once the political environment becomes conducive. Given the inevitable impact on outside actors of any change in the cross-Strait relationship, the ideas and proposals in this essay merit attention in the entire AsiaBPacific region. This Stimson Center report, like its predecessors, is designed to prompt more analytical Benjamin L. Self and Ranjeet K. Singh xi work in the theory
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Escalation Control and the Nuclear Option in South Asia
    Escalation Control and the Nuclear Option in South Asia Michael Krepon, Rodney W. Jones, and Ziad Haider, editors Copyright © 2004 The Henry L. Stimson Center All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior permission in writing from the Henry L. Stimson Center. Cover design by Design Army. ISBN 0-9747255-8-7 The Henry L. Stimson Center 1111 19th Street NW Twelfth Floor Washington, DC 20036 phone 202.223.5956 fax 202.238.9604 www.stimson.org Table of Contents Preface ................................................................................................................. v Abbreviations..................................................................................................... vii Introduction......................................................................................................... ix 1. The Stability-Instability Paradox, Misperception, and Escalation Control in South Asia Michael Krepon ............................................................................................ 1 2. Nuclear Stability and Escalation Control in South Asia: Structural Factors Rodney W. Jones......................................................................................... 25 3. India’s Escalation-Resistant Nuclear Posture Rajesh M. Basrur ........................................................................................ 56 4. Nuclear Signaling, Missiles, and Escalation Control in South Asia Feroz Hassan Khan ...................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • June 10, 2021 Hearing Transcript
    HEARING ON CHINA’S NUCLEAR FORCES HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED SEVENTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION THURSDAY, JUNE 10, 2021 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2021 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, CHAIRMAN ROBIN CLEVELAND, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: BOB BOROCHOFF DEREK SCISSORS JEFFREY FIEDLER HON. JAMES M. TALENT KIMBERLY GLAS ALEX N. WONG HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN MICHAEL R. WESSEL ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act of 2001, Pub. L. No. 106–398 (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002), as amended by: The Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act, 2002, Pub. L. No. 107–67 (Nov. 12, 2001) (regarding employment status of staff and changing annual report due date from March to June); The Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003, Pub. L. No. 108–7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); The Science, State, Justice, Commerce, and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2006, Pub. L. No. 109–108 (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission and applicability of FACA); The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008, Pub. L. No. 110–161 (Dec. 26, 2007) (regarding submission of accounting reports; printing and binding; compensation for the executive director; changing annual report due date from June to December; and travel by members of the Commission and its staff); The Carl Levin and Howard P.
    [Show full text]
  • Contributors
    Contributors Ralph A. Cossa is Executive Director of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu, a non-profit, foreign policy research institute affiliated with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. He is also a board member of the Council on US–Korean Security Studies and an Overseas Honorary Research Fellow with the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis. Cossa is a founding member of the Steering Committee of the multinational Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP), a nongovernmental organization focusing on regional confidence building and multilateral security cooperation, and also serves as Executive Director of the US Committee (USCSCAP). He also co-chairs the international CSCAP working group on confidence and security building measures. Richard E. Darilek is a senior staff member of the RAND Corporation in Washington, D.C. He is also project director for Korean and Middle East Arms Control studies. From August 1989–March 1991, he served as Distinguished Visiting Analyst at the US Army’s Concepts Analysis Agency (CAA) in Bethesda, Maryland. Previously, he has worked at the Council on Foreign Relations, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London), and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Darilek is the author of A Loyal Opposition in time of War: The Republican Party and the Politics of Foreign Policy from Pearl Harbor to Yalta (1976), various RAND studies, and numerous publications on US foreign and defense policy issues. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in History from Princeton University. Sony Devabhaktuni is Program Assistant for South Asia at the Asia Society in New York City.
    [Show full text]
  • US-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas
    U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Background and Issues for Congress Updated September 8, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R42784 U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas Summary Over the past several years, the South China Sea (SCS) has emerged as an arena of U.S.-China strategic competition. China’s actions in the SCS—including extensive island-building and base- construction activities at sites that it occupies in the Spratly Islands, as well as actions by its maritime forces to assert China’s claims against competing claims by regional neighbors such as the Philippines and Vietnam—have heightened concerns among U.S. observers that China is gaining effective control of the SCS, an area of strategic, political, and economic importance to the United States and its allies and partners. Actions by China’s maritime forces at the Japan- administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea (ECS) are another concern for U.S. observers. Chinese domination of China’s near-seas region—meaning the SCS and ECS, along with the Yellow Sea—could substantially affect U.S. strategic, political, and economic interests in the Indo-Pacific region and elsewhere. Potential general U.S. goals for U.S.-China strategic competition in the SCS and ECS include but are not necessarily limited to the following: fulfilling U.S. security commitments in the Western Pacific, including treaty commitments to Japan and the Philippines; maintaining and enhancing the U.S.-led security architecture in the Western Pacific, including U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • A Normal Nuclear Pakistan
    A Normal Nuclear Pakistan A Normal NUCLEAR PAKISTAN by Toby Dalton and Michael Krepon 1 © Copyright 2015 Stimson Center and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace All rights reserved. For more information about Stimson visit www.stimson.org. For more information about the Carnegie Endowment visit www.carnegieendowment.org. Cover photo: shahzebyounas via Flickr A Normal Nuclear Pakistan EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pakistan has worked hard and successfully to build diverse nuclear capabilities. It will retain these capabilities for the foreseeable future as a necessary deterrent against perceived existential threats from India. At this juncture, Pakistan’s military leadership in Rawalpindi can choose to accept success in achieving a “strategic” deterrent against India — a nuclear force posture sufficient to prevent limited nuclear exchanges and a major conventional war. Alternatively, it can choose to continue to compete with India in the pursuit of “full spectrum” deterrence, which would entail open-ended nuclear re- quirements against targets both near and far from Pakistan. These choices would lead Pakistan to two starkly different nuclear futures and places in the global nuclear order. Pakistan is now competing successfully with — and in some respects is outcompeting — India. Paki- stan operates four plutonium production reactors; India operates one. Pakistan has the capability to produce perhaps 20 nuclear warheads annually; India appears to be producing about five warheads an- nually. But given its larger economy and sizable nuclear infrastructure, India is able to outcompete Pa- kistan in fissile material and warhead production if it chooses to do so. Pakistan has prepared for this eventuality by investing in a large nuclear weapons production complex.
    [Show full text]
  • ACROSS the TAIWAN STRAIT: from COOPERATION to CONFRONTATION? 2013–2017
    VOLUME 4 2013–2014 ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT: from COOPERATION to CONFRONTATION? 2013–2017 Compendium of works from the China Leadership Monitor ALAN D. ROMBERG ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT: from COOPERATION to CONFRONTATION? 2013–2017 Compendium of works from the China Leadership Monitor ALAN D. ROMBERG VOLUME FOUR January 14 2013–March 14, 2014 JUNE 2018 Stimson cannot be held responsible for the content of any webpages belonging to other firms, organizations, or individuals that are referenced by hyperlinks. Such links are included in good faith to provide the user with additional information of potential interest. Stimson has no influence over their content, their correctness, their programming, or how frequently they are updated by their owners. Some hyperlinks might eventually become defunct. Copyright © 2018 Stimson All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from Stimson. The Henry L. Stimson Center 1211 Connecticut Avenue Northwest, 8th floor Washington, DC 20036 Telephone: 202.223.5956 www.stimson.org Preface Brian Finlay and Ellen Laipson It is our privilege to present this collection of Alan Romberg’s analytical work on the cross-Strait relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan. Alan joined Stimson in 2000 to lead the East Asia Program after a long and prestigious career in the Department of State, during which he was an instrumental player in the development of the United States’ policy in Asia, particularly relating to the PRC and Taiwan. He brought his expertise to bear on his work at Stimson, where he wrote the seminal book on U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • China and Crisis Management in South Asia
    Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories CHINA AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH ASIA Yun Sun & Hannah Haegeland China’s growing role as a regional and global power may translate to greater Chinese third-party involvement in the management of future interstate crises. The nature of this involvement is uncertain, but historical trajectories of China’s approach to the subcontinent offer some insight. In South Asia, despite shared borders and historic relations with both India and Pakistan, China has played a minimal role in the actual and near-wars between its southern neighbors, instead leaving any third-party management largely in the hands of the United States and European powers. China does not yet view itself as either a military or political global superpower, and thus the incentive to adopt U.S.-style leadership in crisis management is low. Moreover, even as China rises as a global leader, it approaches third-party crisis management differently than the United States and views its interests and exposure to risks abroad through a distinct prism. Yet, as a part of China’s immediate periphery, the peace and stability of the subcontinent constitutes a key area for China’s national security — particularly after the 1998 nuclear tests by India and Pakistan. Crises between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan could have catastrophic implications for China’s critical national interests. Further, as the global geography of China’s economy expands, Beijing’s risk exposure as a third party in emerging bilateral crises increases. Historically, when India-Pakistan crises have emerged, the United States has intervened in a third-party manager role.
    [Show full text]
  • Barry M. Blechman Reflections on a National Security Life
    Barry M. Blechman Reflections on a National Security Life Edited by Alex Bollfrass and R. Taj Moore Barry M. Blechman Reflections on a National Security Life Edited by Alex Bollfrass and R. Taj Moore © Copyright 2019 by the Stimson Center. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Visit www.stimson.org for more information about Stimson. Reflections on a National Security Life Contents Preface | Condoleezza Rice . i Think Tank Analysis in a Polarized Political Era | Tamara Cofman Wittes . .1 . Empowering Congress through Expertise | Russell Rumbaugh . 5 The almeP Commission | Anders Ferm . .3 . Goldwater-Nichols Act | R. Taj Moore . 17. Nuclear Superiority Then and Now | Robert Powell . 21 . Pragmatic Idealism in Consulting | Steve Irwin . 25. Policy Entrepreneurship | Michael Krepon . 29 An Iconoclastic National Security Thinker-Activist | Alan Platt . 33 The Best Cup of Coffee | Fred Whitridge . .37 . Nuclear Facts | Alex Bollfrass . 41. Force Without War | Melanie W. Sisson . .45 . Editors Notes . 47 1 Reflections on a National Security Life Preface Condoleezza Rice Barry and I first met in 1981 . It was a time when the Cold War was still in full flight . In fact, relations between the superpowers were deteriorating – as the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan as well as stalled arms control negotiations and the emergence of America’s commitment to missile defense – unraveled years of détente . Barry and I were among the “young” experts who tried to make the country make sense of the threats and the possibilities of the times . We encountered each other in academic and government forums; in the private sector; and in non-profit organizations .
    [Show full text]
  • Pakistan, India, and China After the U.S. Drawdown from Afghanistan
    Pakistan, India, and China After the U.S. Drawdown from Afghanistan PAKISTAN, INDIA, AND CHINA AFTER THE U.S. DRAWDOWN FROM AFGHANISTAN A Visiting Fellow Report RABIA AKHTAR & JAYITA SARKAR JANUARY 2015 1 © Copyright Stimson Center 2015. All rights reserved. Stimson Center 1211 Connecticut Avenue NW 8th Floor Washington DC 20036 www.stimson.org IMAGE CREDITS All image used with permission via Creative Commons licensing through Flickr.com. Cover: Afghanistan Matters/afgmatters Pages 6 & 10: U.S. Army/soldiersmediacenter Pakistan, India, and China After the U.S. Drawdown from Afghanistan Introduction As American involvement in South Asia enters a new phase after Washington’s impending military with- drawal from Afghanistan, much uncertainty prevails with respect to the most appropriate strategy for maintaining stability in the region. Domestic political instability in Pakistan—an important American ally—continues, cross border tensions rage between India and Pakistan, and terrorism continues to threaten civilian life in Pakistan, India, and in the Xinjiang province of China. All this further enhances concerns about the nature and character of the regional strategic environment in the coming years. This paper exam- ines the strategic future of South Asia in the wake of the U.S. drawdown from Afghanistan through three key research questions: first, how does the U.S. drawdown from Afghanistan affect the regional security and economic interests of India, Pakistan, and China? Secondly, what kinds of responses to terror attacks by India, Pakistan and China could further destabilize the region? Thirdly, what key steps can the United States take to prevent further instability in this context? This paper’s research methodology involves the use of relevant secondary sources and interviews of strategic experts based in think tanks and federal agencies based in Washington, DC.
    [Show full text]
  • South Asia's Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories
    South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories Edited by Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories Edited by Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland JANUARY 2018  © Copyright 2018 by the Stimson Center. All rights reserved. Printed in Washington, D.C. ISBN 978-0-9997659-0-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017919496 Stimson Center 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW 8th Floor Washington, D.C. 20036 U.S.A. Visit www.stimson.org for more information about Stimson’s research. Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories CONTENTS Preface . 7 Key Terms and Acronyms . 9 Introduction . 11 Sameer Lalwani Anatomy of a Crisis: Explaining Crisis Onset in India-Pakistan Relations . 23 Sameer Lalwani & Hannah Haegeland Organizing for Crisis Management: Evaluating India’s Experience in Three Case Studies . .57 Shyam Saran Conflict Resolution and Crisis Management: Challenges in Pakistan-India Relations . 75 Riaz Mohammad Khan Intelligence, Strategic Assessment, and Decision Process Deficits: The Absence of Indian Learning from Crisis to Crisis . 97 Saikat Datta Self-Referencing the News: Media, Policymaking, and Public Opinion in India-Pakistan Crises . 115 Ruhee Neog Crisis Management in Nuclear South Asia: A Pakistani Perspective . 143 Zafar Khan China and Crisis Management in South Asia . 165 Yun Sun & Hannah Haegeland Crisis Intensity and Nuclear Signaling in South Asia . 187 Michael Krepon & Liv Dowling New Horizons, New Risks: A Scenario-based Approach to Thinking about the Future of Crisis Stability in South Asia . 221 Iskander Rehman New Challenges for Crisis Management . 251 Michael Krepon Contributors . 265 Contents 6 PREFACE With gratitude and pride I present Stimson’s latest South Asia Program book, Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories.
    [Show full text]
  • Myanmar Issue Brief No
    CHINA, THE UNITED STATES AND THE KACHIN CONFLICT GREAT POWERS AND THE CHANGING MYANMAR ISSUE BRIEF NO. 2 JANUARY 2014 [UPDATED] China, the United States and the Kachin Conflict By Yun Sun This issue brief examines the development of the Kachin conflict in northern Myanmar’s Kachin and Shan states, the negotiations between the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) and the Myan- mar government, and the roles China and the United States have played in the conflict. KEY FINDINGS: 1 The prolonged Kachin conflict is a 3 The disagreements on terms have 5 Promoting national peace and major obstacle to Myanmar’s national hindered a formal cease-fire. In ad- reconciliation is a pillar of the US reconciliation and a challenging test dition, the existing economic inter- policy toward Myanmar. However, the for the democratization process. est groups profiting from the armed United States is being very careful not conflict have further undermined the to impose itself into the peace process prospect for progress. itself, including Kachin talks, given 2 The KIO and the Myanmar the government’s sensitivity that the government differ on the priority process remains an internal affair of between the cease-fire and the political 4 China intervened in the Kachin ne- the country. dialogue. Without addressing this gotiations in 2013 to protect its national difference, the nationwide peace interests. A crucial motivation was a accord proposed by the government concern about the “internationaliza- will most likely lack the KIO’s tion” of the Kachin issue and the poten- participation. tial US role along the Chinese border.
    [Show full text]
  • The Northern Sea Route: the Myth of Sino-Russian Cooperation
    The Northern Sea Route: The Myth of Sino-Russian Cooperation Yun Sun Co-Director, East Asia Program Introduction Since 2017, a series of events have raised optimism about the potential for Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic region, including unilateral and bilateral statements between Beijing and Moscow about their shared vision for and commitment to joint development of the Arctic energy resources and shipping lane. China’s economic interests in natural resources extractions and alternative transportation routes largely align with Russia’s stated goals to revitalize its Arctic territory. After China formally launched its “Polar Silk Road” (PSR) at the beginning of 2018, much attention has been placed on Sino-Russian cooperation in the development of the Northern Sea Route, Russia’s traditional Arctic shipping route. The Sino-Russian cooperation on the Arctic seems have become the upcoming great new chapter in their comprehensive strategic coordinative relations (全面战略协作伙伴关系).1 Despite the rhetorical enthusiasm from the two governments, concrete, substantive joint projects on the Northern Sea Route are lacking, especially in key areas such as infrastructure development. A careful examination of Chinese views on joint development of the Northern Sea Route reveals divergent interests, conflicting calculations and vastly different cost-benefit analyses. From the Chinese perspective, the joint development of the Northern Sea Route is a Russian proposal to which China reacted primarily out of strategic and political considerations rather than practical economic ones. While China is in principle interested in the Northern Sea Route, the potential and practicality of this alternative transportation route remains tentative and yet to be realized.
    [Show full text]