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Canada AECB WORKSHOP on SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT in SOUTHERN ONTARIO — RECORDED PROCEEDINGS

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Canada AECB WORKSHOP on SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT in SOUTHERN ONTARIO — RECORDED PROCEEDINGS INFO-0604-2 CA9800077 AECB Workshop on Seismic Hazard Assessment in Southern Ontario — Recorded Proceedings m. • •:> Ottawa, Ontario June 19-21. 1995 NEXT PAOE(S) !ef t PLANK Atomic Energy Commission de controle Control Boara de I'energie atomique Canada AECB WORKSHOP ON SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO — RECORDED PROCEEDINGS PREFACE A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence hi southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: (1) The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources. (2) Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. (3) Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. (4) Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods. PREFACE Un atelier sur revaluation des dangers sismiques en Ontario meridional a 6te tenu du 19 au 21 juin 1995. L'atelier avait comme but l'examen des donne"es ge"ologiques et sismologiques disponibles concernant la possibility* de seismes en Ontario meridional et l'6tablissement d'un consensus concernant les m6thodes a retenir pour la caracterisation de ces dangers. L'atelier 6tait structure" en stances techniques visant k centrer les presentations et les discussions sur les quatre themes techniques pertinents quant aux dangers de s&sme en Ontario meridional : 1) 1'importance des observations geologiques et g6ophysiques sur la determination des sources sismiques, 2) les m6thodes et les approches qui pourraient permettre de determiner les sources sismiques d'apres des interpretations integrees de 1'information geologique et sismologique, • • • in 3) les mSthodes et les donne'es qui pourraient servir a la caractlrisation des parametres de l'activite" sismique des sources sismiques, 4) les m£thodes devaluation du danger de mouvement vibratoire du sol. Le present document contient une transcription de l'enregistrement des presentations et des d£bats lors de l'atelier. Comme il est indique' par endroits, certains segments sont incomplete en raison du mauvais fonctionnement de l'enregistreuse et de la pietre quality de Tenregistrement a certains moments. DISCLAIMER The Atomic Energy Control Board is not responsible for the accuracy of the statements made or the opinions expressed in this publication and neither the Board nor the authors assume liability with respect to any damage or loss incurred as a result of the use made of the information contained in this publication. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE iii SESSION A (Chairman: Carl Stepp) 1 INTRODUCTION (Carl Stepp) 1 Purpose of the workshop And AECB objectives (John Waddington) 1 Overview of the workshop (Carl Stepp) 3 SESSION B (Chairman: Carl Stepp) 7 BACKGROUND 7 National Building Code requirements (Peter Basham) 7 Site and regional investigations according to CSA-N289.2 (Peter Basham) 10 SESSION C (Chairman: Ray Price) 16 IMPORTANCE OF VARIOUS GEOLOGICAL AND GEOPHYSICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR DETERMINING SEISMIC SOURCES IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO 16 Characteristics of the Niagara-Pickering and Georgian Bay linear zones and their implications for a large magnitude earthquake in the vicinity of the Darlington and Pickering nuclear power plants, near Toronto (Joe Wallach) 16 Interpretation of aeromagnetic and gravity anomalies in the Precambrian shield of southern Ontario (Walter Roest) 28 Extension of the St. Lawrence fault zone southwest of Cornwall into Lake Ontario (Joe Wallach) 33 Deep seismic crustal results in Southern Ontario (Dave Forsyth) 39 Implications for seismic risk in Southern Ontario based on a review of the region's geology (Mike Easton, et al) 46 Geophysical signatures in the bed of Lake Ontario (Rich Thomas) 52 Neotectonic features in the Quaternary sediments of Lake Ontario: Interpretation of geophysical survey data in the vicinity at Darlington Nuclear Generating Station; seismic hazard implications (Mike Lewis) . 59 Geophysical signatures under Lake Ontario (Joe Wallach & John Bowlby) 65 Faults in the Metropolitan Toronto area; active vs dormant faults (Arsalan Mohajer) 70 Interpretation of the Rouge River faulting, Metropolitan Toronto. What would an active fault with an unknown return period contribute to seismic hazard assessment? (John Adams) 77 Character and reactivation history of the Clarendon-Linden fault system: Evidence from southwestern New York State (Bob Jacobi) .... 83 General discussion 89 Summary and recommendations for research (Ray Price) 105 INTRODUCTION, DAY 2 (Carl Stepp) 114 SESSION D (Chairman: Kevin Coppersmith) 115 METHODS AND APPROACHES FOR DETERMINING SEISMIC SOURCES BASED ON GEOLOGICAL AND SEISMOLOGICAL INFORMATION 115 Methods and procedures for determining seismic sources based on geological and seismological information (Kevin Coppersmith) 115 Seismicity of Lake Ontario region (Anne Stevens) 126 Seismogenesis and structure in the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario region of the U.S. from a global perspective (Nano Seeber) 132 The southern Ontario seismic network - applications to seismic hazard and earthquake engineering (Harold Asmis) 138 Local seismic monitoring east of Toronto (Arsalan Mohajer) 143 Seismic source zone modelling in eastern Canada for National Building Code applications (Peter Basham) 147 Seismic source zone interpretation in southern Ontario (Arsalan Mohajer) 151 The tectonic stress field in eastern Canada:-its use in seismic source interpretation (John Adams) 156 Pop-ups and offset boreholes as geological indicators of earthquake- prone areas in intraplate eastern North America (Joe Wallach) 161 Hazards associated with seismically active linear zones (Christine Powell) 169 General discussion 175 Summary and recommendations for research (Kevin Coppersmith) 185 SESSION E (Chairman: George Klimkiewicz) 191 METHODS AND DATA FOR CHARACTERIZING THE SEISMICITY PARAMETERS OF SEISMIC SOURCES 191 Stable continental earthquakes and seismic hazard in eastern North America (Arch Johnston) 191 Seismicity parameters for eastern Canadian seismic source zones (Peter Basham) 199 General discussion 202 Summary and recommendations for research (George Klimkiewicz) .... 213 SESSION F (Chairman: Robin McGuire) 216 METHODS TO ASSESS VIBRATORY GROUND MOTION HAZARD AND APPLICATIONS 216 VI Use of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for evaluating nuclear power plant core-damage frequency (Robin McGuire) 216 Sources of uncertainty and its treatment in seismic hazard analysis in eastern Canada (John Adams) 226 General discussion 234 Summary and recommendations for research (Robin McGuire) 243 SESSION G 247 WORKSHOP SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS (Carl Stepp and the Session Chairmen) 247 vu Tape 1 - Side 1: SESSION A Chairman: Carl Stepp INTRODUCTION Carl Stepp Carl Stepp: I want to give an overview of the workshop and I'll be doing that in just a few moments, but first I would like to introduce Mr. John Waddington who will overview the purpose of the workshop on behalf of the AECB. John. Purpose of the workshop And AECB objectives John Waddington J. Waddington: Thank you Carl. Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Ottawa, for those who've come from our colleagues down south. I'd like to just outline to you why we're here, for the next 2 and 54 days. Now, to ensure that Canadian nuclear reactors do not pose an undue risk to the Canadian public, the AECB needs to be assured that the probability of an event which could cause significant damage to the stations, and hence to the potential release of radioactive material to the environment, is very low indeed. Typically, we wish to satisfy ourselves, that the probability of significant core damage is less than about 10'5 per station in any one year. Now one of the significant contributors to overall risk, and you can see this from the PRAs that are done, is the potential effect of an earthquake on the station. Now one of the reasons, in my view, for the significance of this contribution, is in fact, lack of knowledge. Direct observations of earthquakes, that is the historical record available to us here in eastern Ontario, is very limited. We only have 2 to 300 years worth of direct observations at most. So using direct observations on their own, would only enable us to predict the earthquakes of about 10" return probability, which could be stretched with good bits of science from GSC, perhaps, to 10"3 if we're lucky, 5 times 10"3, somewhere in that range. Now, as I mentioned, we at the AECB are seeking to ensure that severe core damage is less than 10"5 per year. Obviously, there's a gap here. Now our licensees have dealt with this difficulty by designing the stations with a very large margin of safety, much larger than you might get in an ordinary office block, for example. If an earthquake occurred, which was equivalent to the design basis, we would expect the stations to, essentially, ride through unscathed and, in essence, be able to operate the next day. This implies that much larger earthquakes would be needed before damage appeared and became serious. This is, however, a gap in our knowledge, what level of earthquake could damage the station and how likely is it? Now, knowledge of seismic, the seismicity of eastern Ontario, as elsewhere in the world, has developed substantially in the last 20 years. Many new seismological, geophysical and geological observations have been made since Pickering and Darlington nuclear power stations first received their construction license from the AECB.
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