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Major Cineplex Group December 12, 2018 OUTPERFORM Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB) Share Price: Bt22.8 Target Price: Bt28.0 (+22.8%) Expect a buzzing quarter Company Update Expect ticket sales to grow qoq and yoy in 4Q18F on better-than- expected Thai movie revenue and strong Hollywood movie line-up Recovering advertising sales, better movie line-up, and additional screens will boost FY19F profit OUTPERFORM, trimmed TP to Bt28 (from Bt31), implying 24x FY19F PE; stock offers attractive profit growth and decent yield Impressive 4Q18F ticket revenue from Thai and Hollywood movies MAJOR guided ticket sales almost doubled yoy in October led by both Thai and Hollywood movies, but edged down yoy in November due to a high base. That should lead admission revenue to grow over 25% yoy in the first two months of 4Q18. We foresee double-digit ticket sales growth in December driven by Aquaman and Bumblebee. Thai movies should Kitti PITAKTEERABANDIT deliver over Bt100m revenue this month led by Hor Taew Tak (Bt20m so 662 - 659 7000 ext 5008 far), Khun Bunlue, and Sing Su, vs a low base last year. Ticket sales [email protected] COMPANY RESEARCH | should grow qoq and yoy in 4Q18F. Concession revenue should grow slower than ticket sales due to fewer sales of bucket sets related to superhero movie in November. Advertising sales should drop yoy as two Key Data out of three contracts is still under negotiation, while naming sponsor 12-mth High/Low (Bt) 30.5 / 21.0 revenue at Siam Paragon should drop qoq due to renovations. We expect Market Cap (Btm/US$m) 20,398.4 / 621.7 4Q18F earnings to grow qoq and turnaround from core loss in 4Q17. 3m Avg. Turnover (Btm/US$m) 29.7 / 0.9 Positive outlook for 2019 on better lineup and recovering ad sales Free Float (%) 63.7 FY18F earnings is intact as weaker-than-expected advertising sales and Issued Shares (m shares) 895 margins should be offset by lower-than-expected SG&A/Sales. We Major Shareholders: trimmed FY19F/20F profit by 4%/7% after imputing lower advertising - POOLVARALUK VICHA 29.6 sales. However, it should still grow 8% yoy in FY19F (-6% in 9M18) led by - NORTRUST NOMINEES LTD 5.8 - SOUTH EAST ASIA UK 5.2 50 additional screens (from 767), rising cinema ADEX and naming sponsors at Icon Siam screens, and higher utilization as MAJOR plans to Share Price Performance sell more ad space through media agencies and tap tier-2 advertisers with more screens upcountry. We expect ticket sales to grow 5% yoy in FY19F supported by better movie line-up (see p.2) and more MPIC movies (12 vs 6 in FY18), with con-to-box ratio flat yoy at 36%. GPM should improve yoy led by recovering advertising revenue while CAPEX should continue to drop, from Bt6.6m per screen to Bt5.6m. OUTPERFORM, Bt28 TP; strong earnings growth from 4Q18F We remain positive on MAJOR but trimmed DCF-based TP to Bt28. The stock is trading at 19x FY19F PE, a discount to its 5-year average multiple, but earnings growth will accelerate to 15% in FY19F vs 2% p.a. in the last five years. We recommend to accumulate the stock to capture strong box-office and concession revenues from 4Q18F. Key risks are weaker-than-expected ADEX and Thai movie revenues. YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth Absolute (%) (21.4) 2.2 (5.4) (23.4) Financial Summary (Btm) Relative to index (%) (15.5) 3.4 (2.9) (20.0) Year to Dec 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Sales (Btm) 8,745 8,972 9,140 9,605 10,065 Krungsri Securities vs Market Growth (%) 1.9 2.6 1.9 5.1 4.8 Positive Neutral Negative EBITDA (Btm) 1,967 1,987 2,126 2,379 2,555 Growth (%) (12.2) 1.0 7.0 11.9 7.4 Market Recommend 13 6 1 Recurring profit (Btm) 812 647 911 1,049 1,153 Krungsri Market % +/- Growth (%) (13.0) (20.3) 40.9 15.1 9.9 Target Price (Bt) 28.0 28.0 0.1 Net income 1,188 1,193 1,203 1,049 1,153 ’18 Net Profit (Btm) 911 960 (5.1) EPS (Bt) (Core) 0.91 0.72 1.02 1.17 1.29 ’19 Net Profit (Btm) 1,049 1,099 (4.6) Growth (%) (13.0) (20.3) 40.9 15.1 9.9 Krungsri's earnings revision PE (x) 25.1 31.5 22.4 19.4 17.7 DPS (Bt) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 2018F 2019F Yield (%) 5.2 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.0 Earnings revision (%) - (4.0) BVPS (Bt) 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.5 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities P/BV (x) 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Company Update | MAJOR December 12, 2018 MAJOR: Changes to key assumptions FY17 FY18F FY19F FY20F Old New %Ch Old New %Ch Old New %Ch Number of moviegoers (Million) 30.6 32.0 32.0 0 33.6 33.6 0 35.3 35.3 0 Average ticket price (Bt) 158.7 154.5 157.0 2 154.5 157.0 2 154.5 157.0 2 Ticket sales (Btbn) 4.86 4.94 5.02 2 5.19 5.27 5 5.45 5.54 2 Concession revenue (Btbn) 1.67 1.80 1.80 0 1.89 1.89 0 2.00 2.00 0 Advertising revenue (Btbn) 1.40 1.46 1.31 -10 1.63 1.41 -13 1.71 1.49 -13 GPM: Admission (%) 12.1 12.3 11.7 -0.6ppt 12.8 11.7 -1.1ppt 13.6 12.0 -1.6ppt GPM: Concession (%) 67.5 66.7 67.6 0.9ppt 66.9 67.6 0.7ppt 67.2 67.6 0.4ppt GPM: Advertisement (%) 84.7 84.4 84.1 -0.3ppt 85.0 84.7 -0.3ppt 85.5 84.7 -0.8ppt Concession to box office revenue (%) 34.3 36.5 35.9 -0.6ppt 36.5 35.9 -0.6ppt 36.7 35.9 -0.8ppt SG&A to total revenue (%) 26.3 25.7 24.7 -1.0ppt 25.0 23.8 -1.2ppt 24.5 23.4 -1.1ppt Blended GPM (%) 33.6 34.9 33.9 -1.0ppt 36.1 34.4 -1.7ppt 36.7 34.6 -2.1ppt Core profit (Btm) 647 911 911 0 1,093 1,049 -4 1,241 1,153 -7 Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities 1H19F movie line up (potential revenue > Bt50m) 1H18 movie line up (revenue > Bt50m) Btm Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse (1Q) Maze Runner: The Death Cure (1Q) 101 Captain Marvel (1Q) Black Panther (1Q/2Q) 281 How to Train Your Dragon 3 (1Q) Pacific Rim Uprising (1Q/2Q) 90 Friend Zone (GDH559; 1Q) Ready Player One (2Q) 80 Dumbo (Disney’s animation; 1Q/2Q) Avengers: Infinity War (2Q) 575 Shazam! (DC’s superhero; 2Q) Rampage (2Q) 109 Avengers 4 (2Q) Deadpool 2 (2Q) 173 Men in Black 4 (2Q) Incredibles 2 (2Q) 68 John Wick 3 (2Q) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2Q) 287 Hellboy 3 (2Q) Aladdin (2Q) Toy Story 3 (2Q) Source: Company data Source: Company data and www.boxofficemojo.com PE band P/BV band Source: Bloomberg and Krungsri Securities Source: Bloomberg and Krungsri Securities Krungsri Securities Research 2 Company Update | MAJOR December 12, 2018 P&L (Btm) 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Chg Chg QoQ YoY Sales 2,200.5 1,858.0 1,950.3 3,003.7 2,047.5 -32% -7% Cost of sales (1,488.4) (1,325.0) (1,330.2) (1,911.0) (1,417.4) -26% -5% Gross profit 712.0 533.0 620.1 1,092.7 630.1 -42% -12% SG&A (601.3) (638.1) (519.7) (577.2) (546.5) -5% -9% Operating Profit 110.7 (105.1) 100.3 515.5 83.6 -84% -24% Other income 59.9 56.5 34.6 36.3 32.1 -12% -46% Equity income 83.4 26.7 71.5 69.4 67.3 -3% -19% EBIT 254.1 (21.9) 206.4 621.1 183.0 -71% -28% Interest expense (33.0) (32.7) (28.8) (26.3) (26.4) 0% -20% EBT 221.0 (54.6) 177.6 594.8 156.6 -74% -29% Income tax (62.1) (33.4) (27.0) (123.7) (35.6) -71% -43% Minority interests (4.4) 4.9 (2.2) (3.3) (4.2) 27% -5% Core profit 154.5 (83.1) 148.5 467.8 116.8 -75% -24% Extraordinaries 147.9 157.8 135.9 66.4 89.2 34% -40% Reported net profit 302.4 74.7 284.3 534.2 206.0 -61% -32% Shares out (end Q, m) 894.7 894.7 894.7 894.7 894.7 0% 0% Adjusted shares (m) 894.7 894.7 894.7 894.7 894.7 0% 0% Pre-ex EPS 0.17 (0.09) 0.17 0.52 0.13 -75% -24% EPS 0.34 0.08 0.32 0.60 0.23 -61% -32% Depreciation (380.9) (301.7) (283.1) (358.4) (319.8) -11% -16% EBITDA 491.6 196.6 383.5 873.9 403.5 -54% -18% Key Ratios Gross margin (%) 32.4 28.7 31.8 36.4 30.8 Operating profit margin (%) 5.0 (5.7) 5.1 17.2 4.1 Core profit margin (%) 7.0 (4.5) 7.6 15.6 5.7 Krungsri Securities Research 3 Company Update | MAJOR December 12, 2018 INCOME STATEMENT (Btm) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Turnover 8,745 8,972 9,140 9,605 10,065 Cost of sales (COGS) (4,367) (4,622) (4,758) (4,940) (5,155) Depreciation & amortization (1,214) (1,336) (1,281) (1,359) (1,425) Gross profit 3,165 3,014 3,100 3,306 3,485 S&A expenses (2,412) (2,363) (2,256) (2,286) (2,355) Operating profit 753 651 845 1,020 1,130 Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 753 651 845 1,020 1,130 Interest expense (144) (140) (115) (111) (104) Other income 202 188 155 163 171 Pre-tax profit 811 699 885 1,073 1,197 Income tax on company & subsidiaries (237) (279) (237) (300) (335) Profit after tax 574 420 648 772 862 Minority interests (19) (4) (4) (5) (5) Share of associate net income 256 231 268 281 296 Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0 Recurring attributable net profit 812 647 911 1,049 1,153 Extraordinary items 376 547 291 0 0 Reported net profit 1,188 1,193 1,203 1,049 1,153 Shares in issue (Y/E, m) 895 895 895 895 895 EPS (excluding extraordinary items, Bt) 0.91 0.72 1.02 1.17 1.29 DPS (Bt) 1.20 1.25 1.25 1.09 1.13 DPS/EPS (%) 1.32 1.73 1.23 0.93 0.88 CASH FLOW (Btm) 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Earnings before tax 811 699 885 1,073 1,197 Tax paid (237) (279) (237) (300) (335) Depreciation & amortization 1,214 1,336 1,281 1,359 1,425 Chg In working capital (138) (55) (1) 6 12 Chg In other CA & CL / minorities 106 296 282 262 291 Cash flow from operations 1,756 1,997 2,210 2,399 2,590 Capex (1,447) (931) (1,000) (900) (800) ST loans & investments (8) 3 - - - LT loans & investments (214) 33 33 33 33 Adj.
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