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Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) Buy (From Neutral) Communications - Media Target Price: THB38.00 Market Cap: Usd794m Price: THB32.00

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Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) Buy (From Neutral) Communications - Media Target Price: THB38.00 Market Cap: Usd794m Price: THB32.00 Company Update, 18 September 2015 Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) Buy (from Neutral) Communications - Media Target Price: THB38.00 Market Cap: USD794m Price: THB32.00 Macro Risks Outlook Brightens On Better Growth Prospects Growth Value We turn more positive on Major Cineplex on the expectation of Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) improving private spending from end-2015 and better earnings growth 37 162 prospects given strong movie lines and healthy contributions from 35 153 newly-launched flagship outlets. Upgrade to BUY, with a 2016 TP of THB38.00 (from THB37.60, 19% upside). Major Cineplex has a decent 33 145 annual dividend yield but trades at the lowest P/E, P/BV and EV/EBITDA 31 136 compared to other media and consumer stocks. 29 127 ♦ Resilient topline growth. Despite weak private spending amid a 27 118 sluggish economic outlook, we expect Major Cineplex’s FY15 box office revenue to still grow 5% YoY. Going into 2016, we expect its topline to 25 110 grow at a double-digit rate due to: i) the potential recovery in private 23 101 spending after the recent government stimulus was implemented, ii) a 21 92 full year profit contribution from newly opened flagship stores at 9 8 Emquartier, CentralPlaza Westgate and Central East Ville, and iii) strong 7 6 movie lines (see Figure 8). 5 4 ♦ Expect 20% earnings growth for 2015-2016. The company’s 1H15 3 core profit and bottomline grew 9% YoY and 18% respectively. For 2015, 2 1 we believe that Major Cineplex’s core earnings may increase 20% YoY Vol m to THB1.22bn (of which 50% was already achieved in 1H15). Next year, Jul-15 we estimate revenue to grow 13% YoY and earnings to rise 20% YoY, Jan-15 Mar-15 Nov-14 Sep-14 May-15 given its improved margins on the back of a better operating Source: Bloomberg environment. ♦ Upgrade to BUY with a new TP of THB38.00. Now that its share price Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 57.7m/1.67m has corrected to our entry level of around THB30.00, we upgrade our Cons. Upside (%) 9.4 recommendation to BUY from Neutral. Our new SOP-based 2016 TP of Upside (%) 18.8 THB38.00 (from our 2015 TP of THB37.60) comprises: i) THB36.30 from 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 22.9 - 36.0 its core business – pegged to 22x FY16F P/E (+0.5SD), and ii) THB1.70 Free float (%) 49 reflecting the potential gains on its investment portfolio (see Figure 2). Share outstanding (m) 892 Also, we note that Major Cineplex trades at lower P/E, P/BV and EV/EBITDA valuations compared to the rest of its peers in the media and Shareholders (%) consumer sector in Thailand, despite having one of the highest dividend Vicha Poonwaralak 34.1 yield. (see Figure 3). Thai NVDR 10.1 ♦ Key risks: Major Cineplex’s business is highly dependent on private State Street Bank and Trust 6.3 spending, consumer confidence and GDP growth; a further decrease in any of these items would negatively impact its earnings. Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 15.3 (3.8) 0.8 7.6 35.0 Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Relative 23.0 (1.9) 9.6 16.3 47.0 Total turnover (THBm) 6,963 7,713 8,623 9,248 10,276 Reported net profit (THBm) 846 1,052 1,086 1,306 1,470 Shariah compliant Recurring net profit (THBm) 682 1,052 1,013 1,220 1,470 Recurring net profit growth (%) (12.0) 54.2 (3.7) 20.5 20.5 Recurring EPS (THB) 0.77 1.18 1.14 1.37 1.65 Wanida Geisler +66 2862 9748 DPS (THB) 0.87 1.00 1.05 1.25 1.40 [email protected] Recurring P/E (x) 41.5 27.0 28.1 23.3 19.4 P/B (x) 4.84 4.65 4.50 4.30 4.12 Naruedom Mujjalinkool +66 2862 9229 P/CF (x) 15.7 12.8 12.8 14.5 13.5 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 8.7 7.4 7.1 6.7 Return on average equity (%) 14.4 17.6 17.5 20.2 21.7 Net debt to equity (%) 39.8 70.5 62.0 66.2 67.9 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (8.0) (0.5) Source: Company data, RHB TM See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA Platform 1 Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) 18 September 2015 Valuation And Recommendation New TP of THB38.00 (from THB37.60). We roll over our valuation to 2016. Our new SOP-based TP comprises THB36.30 from its core business, pegged to 22x FY16F P/E (+0.5SD), and THB1.70 to reflect potential gains on its investment portfolio (see Figure 2). We assume a premium P/E for Major Cineplex as we believe that it can grow its bottomline at a double-digit rate for 2015-2016, given: i) a strong movie line- up, ii) full-year contributions from high-margin outlets based in places like Emquartier and Central Westgate, and iii) improved private spending that is fuelled by the government’s stimulus packages. As a result, we expect the company’s core net profit to grow to THB1.47bn in 2016, reflecting a 20% growth. Compared to its peers in the media and consumer sector, Major Cineplex has one of the lowest P/E, P/BV and EV/EBITDA valuations – while its dividend yield is one of the highest. Figure 1: Major Cineplex’s P/E band Figure 2: Major Cineplex’s investment portfolio THBm 2Q15 Available for sale investment Book value 721 Investment in associates Book value 2,306 Major Cineplex investment: Holding % Market cap Siam Future (NR) 22.46 2,175 Major Cineplex lifestyle leasehold property fund (NR) 33 1,427 PVRL 4.57 944 Total 4,546 Potential gains 1,519 Per share (THB) 1.70 Source: Bloomberg Source: Company data, RHB Figure 3: Peer comparison Media Tickers Market Cap P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) Company THBm 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F Major Cineplex Group MAJOR TB 27,879 21.70 19.00 4.26 4.08 6.71 6.58 3.90 4.50 BEC World BEC TB 68,500 20.71 18.96 8.16 7.75 9.67 8.96 4.51 4.77 RS RS TB 11,492 68.67 27.67 6.63 6.14 15.48 10.68 1.43 2.54 Workpoint Entertainment WORK TB 18,045 75.88 41.95 6.17 5.58 24.91 17.93 0.85 1.53 VGI Global Media VGI TB 25,261 20.44 25.73 9.81 12.11 17.49 18.63 4.38 3.26 Average (Ex-Major Cineplex) 46.43 28.58 7.69 7.89 16.89 14.05 2.79 3.03 Consumer Tickers Market Cap P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) Company THBm 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F Major Cineplex Group MAJOR TB 27,879 21.70 19.00 4.26 4.08 6.71 6.58 3.90 4.50 CP ALL CPALL TB 442,418 33.57 26.97 11.64 9.78 19.57 17.22 1.89 2.20 Home Product Center HMPRO TB 91,401 25.27 22.42 5.03 4.40 13.45 11.82 1.68 1.81 Big C Supercenter BIGC TB 162,113 20.47 18.43 3.39 3.01 12.20 11.26 1.43 1.76 Robinson Department Store ROBINS TB 42,483 19.70 16.96 3.09 2.80 9.83 8.74 2.45 2.87 Average (Ex-Major Cineplex) 24.75 21.19 5.79 5.00 13.76 12.26 1.87 2.16 Source: Bloomberg, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) 18 September 2015 2H15 Growth Drivers Contribution from two flagship branches at Emquartier and CentralPlaza Westgate. This year, Major Cineplex launched two flagship branches. Quartier CineArt at Emquartier Shopping Mall and Westgate Cineplex at Central Plaza Westgate – both similarly positioned as its top branch, Paragon Cineplex (see Figure 6). We expect the two branches to be its growth drivers, and may be ranked among its top ten revenue contributors (by cinema). The top five contributors to its cinema revenue are: Paragon Cineplex (16 screens), Major Cineplex Ratchayothin (15 screens), Major Cineplex Rangsit (16 screens), Mega Cineplex (10 screens) and Major Cineplex Fashion Island (11 screens). Figure 4: Westgate Cineplex screens advertisement Figure 5: Westgate Cineplex Source: Company Source: RHB Figure 6: Breakdown of Major Cineplex’s branches in prime areas Branch No. of screens ATP Location Mall size (THB) (sq.m. ) Siam Paragon 16 220 One of Bangkok’s top shopping malls, located next to BTS Siam 400,000 station Emquartier 8 220 Opposite Emporium shopping mall, in the middle of Sukumvit 250,000 road next to BTS Phrom Phong station CentralPlaza 12 220 Super Regional Mall in South-East Asia, next to MRT purple line 500,000 Westgate Bangyai station Source: Company data, Central Pattana, Emquartier. Super Regional Mall is a shopping mall with a gross leasable area (GLA) more than 75,000 sq.m (GLA). (Central Westgate has a GLA of 180,000 sq.m.) 74 more screens to come online in 2H15.
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