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Central Pattana (CPN TB) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Leisure & Entertainment Target Price: THB57.40 Market Cap: USD5,476M Price: THB40.80

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Central Pattana (CPN TB) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Leisure & Entertainment Target Price: THB57.40 Market Cap: USD5,476M Price: THB40.80 Company Update, 7 May 2015 Central Pattana (CPN TB) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Leisure & Entertainment Target Price: THB57.40 Market Cap: USD5,476m Price: THB40.80 Macro Risks 2 More Malls To Roar Growth . 2 0 Value . 03 0 . 03 0 Central Pattana is a resilient high-end retail mall developer and operator . Central Pattana (CPN TB) 0 Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) that plans to open 10 new malls over the next three years. We maintain 0 51 111 our BUY recommendation with a new DCF-derived TP of THB57.40 (41% 0 upside). Together with positive rental reversion following the expiration 49 106 of long-term contracts and strong demand driven by international brands, we expect continued strong performance from the company. 47 101 Expect to see higher rental income growth. Being the leading retail 45 96 developer in Thailand, Central Pattana owns a total net leasable area (NLA) of 1,204,677 sq m (excludes areas transferred to property funds) 43 91 as at 31 Dec 2014. We believe it has strong bargaining power to command a continued increment in rental rates. During FY14, same- 41 86 store rental growth was soft at 3.5% as the political standoff in 1H14 hurt tenant sales. We expect same store rental to increase by 6% in FY15F 39 81 18 with the expiration of 13% of its long-term leases, as well as new 16 14 initiatives by management to boost rental from the utilisation of common 12 10 areas. 8 6 4 More to shop. Central Pattana will open four new malls this year, which 2 Volm would increase NLA by 16%. Take-up for two of its new malls to be 14 14 15 14 14 15 opened in May and July has already reached 90%. We believe demand - - - - - - Jul Jan Mar Nov Sep May for retail space in Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA) is set to be strong, driven by new entrants from international brands. Going forward, the Source: Bloomberg company has plans to expand to Malaysia and, potentially, Vietnam and Indonesia. It is scheduled to open its first mall in Malaysia, CentralPlaza Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 165m/5.04m i-City, in FY17. Cons. Upside (%) 42.6 Upside (%) 40.9 Net gearing to increase albeit still below its policy of 1x. Central 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 40.8 - 49.5 Pattana would need capex of about THB54.4bn over FY15F-17F for its new projects, which could be funded by internal cash flow and new Free float (%) 45 debentures. We believe the company would increase its net gearing to Share outstanding (m) 4,488 0.57x in FY15F before moderating the level downwards. Shareholders (%) Chirathivat family 29.0 BUY, with a TP of THB57.40. We value Central Pattana using DCF to Central Group 26.0 better reflect its long-term growth and derive a TP of THB57.40 (from THB62.00). We like its: i) strong market share, ii) resilience against Thailand’s economic circumstances, and iii) its synergy with the Central Share Performance (%) Group. Risks include protests, particularly in BMA, and severe calamities such as flooding. This report marks the transfer of coverage to the YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m authors. Absolute (10.4) (7.9) (8.9) (15.1) (8.9) Relative (12.3) (7.3) (3.5) (11.7) (17.6) Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Total turnover (THBm) 19,913 22,308 25,915 30,031 35,579 Shariah compliant Reported net profit (THBm) 6,293 7,307 8,236 9,566 11,481 Recurring net profit (THBm) 5,916 7,231 8,236 9,566 11,481 Recurring net profit growth (%) 34.1 22.2 13.9 16.2 20.0 Recurring EPS (THB) 1.34 1.61 1.84 2.13 2.56 Veena Naidu License No. 24418, +66 2862 9752 DPS (THB) 0.55 0.65 0.73 0.85 1.02 [email protected]@rhbgroup.com Recurring P/E (x) 30.5 25.3 22.2 19.1 15.9 Juliana Cai +65 6232 3871 P/B (x) 5.06 4.46 3.98 3.54 3.12 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 James Koh +65 6232 3839 Return on average equity (%) 20.5 18.9 18.9 19.6 20.8 [email protected] Return on average assets (%) 8.6 8.8 8.4 8.5 9.4 Net debt to equity (%) 49.1 32.4 56.0 54.5 51.5 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (4.0) (4.0) (6.2) Source: Company data, RHB TM See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA Platform 1 Central Pattana (CPN TB) 7 May 2015 Favorable Change In Lease Structure A reputable mall developer/operator with strong bargaining power. Central Pattana is a leading retail developer in Thailand. Its main revenue contribution comes from building, managing and leasing shopping malls to retail tenants. Currently, it manages 25 shopping centers together with seven offices, two hotels and two residential properties. Over the last five years, same store rental has been growing at an average rate of 6.7% pa. Being the largest retail developer in Thailand, with a 20% market share in BMA, we believe it has the bargaining power to command sustainable rental income growth in the short to medium term. As 69% of the company’s rental income is on a fixed rent or long-term basis, its business model is even more resilient against Thailand’s economic circumstances. Figure 1: Revenue breakdown by business for FY15 Figure 2: Central Pattana’s rental contract structure Hotels 4% Title: Title: F&B Source: Source: 4% PleaseLong -fillterm in the values above to have them entered in your report Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report lease(up to 30 years) 20% Fixed rent 49% Consignment (Monthly basis collection) Rent and 31% services 92% Source: RHB Source: Company data Expiration of long-term lease contracts. 20% of Central Pattana’s rental contracts are long-term leases (see Figure 2). Tenants with long-term contracts make an upfront payment for a lease of up to 30 years. Rental income is then realised throughout the lease period. According to the group, 13% of its long-term contracts are expected to expire in 2015. We therefore expect a positive rental reversion when these long-term leases expire before they are converted, mainly into shorter-term fixed contracts (of up to three years). Figure 3: Expiration of Central Pattana’s long-term lease contracts % Title: 60 Source: 50 Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report 40 27 30 20 24 10 14 13 14 4 0 2 2 2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 > 2021 Retail Anchor Source: Company data See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Central Pattana (CPN TB) 7 May 2015 Can Command Sustainable Income Growth Competitive landscape in Thailand. Central Pattana has an approximately 20% market share in BMA. The other two main shopping mall operators are The Mall Group and Siam Future (SG TB, NR). The Mall Group is expected to have four more upcoming projects completed over the next three years, following the grand opening of the EmQuartier in Mar 2015, while Siam Future is expected to have about three more projects completed over the next two years (See Figure 4). Although management has estimated a total retail space of about 1,500,000 sq m to come on-stream in Bangkok in 2015, it believes that rental rates will continue to rise along with the increase in demand from local and foreign retail players. Figure 4: Competitors’ expansion plans Opening Year GFA (sq m) Strategy Budget (THBbn) The Mall Focus on developing mainly within Bangkok. EMQuartier March 2015 250,000 LuxuryDo not thinkworld itclass is necessary retail centre. to develop project outside BluPort Hua Hin Resort Mall 2016 140,000 Upmarket shopping mall with heritage charm. 5 EmSphere End 2016 200,000 Shopping mall with offices, event halls and rooftop garden. 7 Blu Pearl 2017 650,000 Upmarket shopping mall with condominiums, office buildings, 20 concention center, hotel and water-park entertainment. Bangkok mall 2017 650,000 Shopping mall with office and residential areas. 20 Siam Future Focus on developing neighbourhood malls. The Market Place community mall 2015 11,000 Community mall. Mega West 2015 JV for IKANO. Mega East 2016 JV for IKANO. Compiled from media and public sources Source: RHB International retailers to set demand for mall space. International retailers are increasingly looking to expand into the Asia-Pacific in order to tap into the rising middle class and growing population. Compared to Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, lower rental rates and labour expenses make Bangkok more cost-efficient for international brands to set up new stores and offices. Some of the recent new entrants into Thailand’s retail market include H&M, Wood Wood, Zara Home and Harrod’s Tea Room. We believe that the establishments of new iconic malls such as EmQuartier by The Mall Group could help to bring in new international brand names into Thailand. This may have a positive spillover effect on Central Pattana, when the foreign brands expand their operations in Thailand. The company has been sustaining a high occupancy rate of >95%. We are optimistic that it would be able to sustain this high rate and achieve higher rental income, driven by new entrants and the expansion of international retailers.
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