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Central Pattana (CPN TB ) Share Price: Bt48.25 Target Price: Bt58.0 (+20%)

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Central Pattana (CPN TB ) Share Price: Bt48.25 Target Price: Bt58.0 (+20%) March 21, 2016 OUTPERFORM Central Pattana (CPN TB ) Share Price: Bt48.25 Target Price: Bt58.0 (+20%) Conquering Southeast Asia Company Update Company Earnings expected to jump 23%/17% in FY16/17F, strongest growth among SE Asia peers despite fragile economy Potential upside to earnings if CPN converts CPNRF into REIT, expected to be finalized by 2Q16 Reiterate OUTPERFORM and Bt58 TP based on DCF; attractive valuation at 22.4x FY16F PE vs 28.6x average over FY13-15 Most promising retail space developer in SE Asia CPN is primed for a rerating. It is expected to register the strongest earnings growth among SE Asia peers in FY16F (+23%) and FY17F (+17%) compared with 18% and 9% regional average, respectively. This would be driven by the opening of five shopping malls in FY15-16 Kittisorn PRUITIPAT, CFA, FRM that will expand total leasable area by 15%, 3-6% higher rents, and 662 - 659 7000 ext 5019 high occupancy rate of 95%. CPN has been registering positive [email protected] COMPANY RESEARCH | RESEARCH COMPANY earnings growth in the last seven consecutive years despite a shaky economy, suggesting limited downside to our forecasts. Synergies with Key Data Central Group, which owns leading retail and restaurant chains and 12-mth High/Low (Bt) 50.5 / 39.8 54% stake in CPN, would also ensure the success of future projects. Market capital (Btm/US$m) 218,790 / 6,277 3m avg Turnover (Btm/US$m) 251.7 / 7.2 Potential upside from converting CPNRF from a property fund into Free Float (%) 49.0 REIT Issue Shares (m shares) 4,488 The management is considering several options: (i) convert CPNRF Major shareholders: (27% stake) into a REIT, (ii) set up a new REIT, or (iii) raise capital at - CENTRAL HOLDING COMP 26.2 CPNRF to renovate existing properties to enhance yields. CPN is keen - STATE STREET CORP 5.2 - THAI NVDR CO LTD 4.8 on the first option as that would extend the life of CPNRF given that all the assets are leasehold. CPN would need to inject more assets and Share Price Performance the REIT would need to use debt to enhance yields to offset tax on dividends, which does not have under property fund. And, CPN would recognize gains from the sale of assets, possibly in 2H16. This would be an upside to our earnings forecast. This option may be finalized in 2Q16. OUTPERFORM, DCF-based Bt58 TP implies 27x FY16F PE Our TP assumes 9.5% WACC and 5% LTG. We adjust FY17F earnings after reflecting latest details on new projects but there is limited impact on our TP. We like CPN for its (i) strongest earnings growth and ROE in the region, (ii) integrated business strategy with Central Group to support future expansion, (iii) strong recurring income base, and (iv) YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth clear expansion plan with a proven track record. Absolute (%) 2.7 7.8 10.9 15.6 Relative to index (%) (4.7) 1.0 3.3 25.3 Financial Summary (Btm) Year to Dec 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Krungsri Securities vs Market Sales (Btm) 22,308 24,283 28,434 31,398 33,673 Positive Neutral Negative Growth (%) 12 9 17 10 7 Market Recommend 22 0 0 EBITDA (Btm) 12,628 13,621 16,974 19,616 21,100 Krungsri Market % +/- Growth (%) 12 8 25 16 8 Target Price (Bt) 58.0 57.8 0.4 Recurring profit (Btm) 7,307 7,880 9,673 11,271 12,146 ’16 Net Profit (Btm) 9,673 9,350 3.5 Growth (%) 16 8 23 17 8 ’17 Net Profit (Btm) 11,271 10,774 4.6 FDEPS (Bt) 1.63 1.76 2.16 2.51 2.71 Growth (%) 16 8 23 17 8 Krungsri's earnings revision PE (x) 29.6 27.5 22.4 19.2 17.8 2016F 2017F DPS (Bt) 0.65 0.70 0.86 1.00 1.08 Earnings revision (%) - 0.8 Yield (%) 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities BVPS (Bt) 9.14 10.24 11.69 13.34 15.04 P/BV (x) 5.3 4.7 4.1 3.6 3.2 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Company Update | CPN March 21 , 201 6 Why we like CPN (i) FY16F earnings growth strongest among regional peers We estimate earnings will surge 23% to Bt9.7bn in FY16 and grow by another 17% to Bt11.2bn in FY17. This would be driven by the opening of five shopping malls in FY15-16 that will expand total leasable area by 15%, 3-6% higher rents, and consistently high occupancy rate of 95%. This would be the strongest earnings among peers in the region, which could attract interest from regional funds and lead to a rerating of the share price. Note that we have ignored potential asset divestment gains, which would be upside risks to FY16F earnings. CPN to register strongest FY16 earnings growth among regional peers Div Market PE P/BV EPS Growth Yield ROE Share Price Cap (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) Performance BB Ticker Name US$ 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 17F 16F 16F 1M 3M 6M YTD CPN TB CENTRAL PATTANA PUB CO LTD 6,277 22.4 19.2 4.1 3.6 22.7 16.5 1.79 18.1 7.8 10.9 4.9 2.7 SF TB SIAM FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PCL 301 11.6 11.6 1.1 NA 11.8 0.0 0.5 10.9 (0.8) (2.5) 8.3 (5.6) SMPH PM SM PRIME HOLDINGS INC 13,362 24.6 22.0 2.7 2.5 20.5 11.7 1.3 11.3 0.2 (1.6) (4.0) (1.2) IGB MK IGB CORPORATION BHD 790 12.8 12.0 0.7 0.7 17.7 7.0 3.3 5.3 3.4 6.2 (5.1) 4.3 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities (ii) Solid business model to support future expansion Strong synergies with major shareholder Central Group which owns leading retail and restaurant chains, CPN has been consistently registering 94-98% occupancy rates at its malls over past nine years. This implies CPN has a successful business model, and we expect this to continue to support its new mall projects going forward. We assumed occupancy rate would remain high at 95% over FY16-18. This model is hard to replicate, in our view, and is one of the reasons why CPN has been able to retain its lead in the last several years. Synergies with Central Group help to keep occupancy high 2,000,000 98 100 97 96 95 96 97 96 96 94 95 95 95 1,800,000 90 1,600,000 1,400,000 80 1,200,000 1,000,000 70 800,000 60 600,000 400,000 50 200,000 0 40 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F NLA (sqm) Occupancy rate (%) (RHS) Source: Company data, Krungsri securities (iii) Resilient earnings despite volatile economy About 66% of CPN’s rental contracts by leasable area are at fixed rates, while the rest is based on a percentage of sales (i.e. revenue-sharing) with tenants having to meet minimum monthly sales requirement. This means the slow domestic consumption has limited impact on its revenue. This is a successful model as CPN has been registering positive earnings growth despite a volatile economy in the last five years; in fact, earnings growth had outpaced GDP and consumption growth. Krungsri Securities Research 2 Company Update | CPN March 21 , 201 6 CPN’s earnings growth had outpaced GDP and consumption growth in the past five years %Growth (yoy) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CPN - Core profit 8.3% 114.4% 42.6% 16.1% 7.8% Private consumption 1.8% 6.7% 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% Nominal GDP 4.6% 9.3% 4.5% 1.8% 2.8% Source: Company data, Krungsri securities (iv) Converting CPNRF to REIT: a potential catalyst The management is considering several options for CPNRF: (i) convert CPNRF (27% stake) into a REIT, (ii) set up a new REIT, or (iii) raise capital at CPNRF to renovate existing assets to enhance yields. CPN is keen on the first option as that would extend the life of CPNRF given that all the assets are leasehold, although CPN would need to inject more assets and the REIT would need to use debt to enhance yields to offset dividend tax. Dividend paid by property funds is tax- exempt. The conversion could rerate the stock as CPN would recognize extra gains from the sale of assets to the REIT, possibly in 2H16 in order to take advantage of the waiver on transfer fee which expire in 4Q16. We expect CPN to finalize this in 2Q16. Expansion plan Opening seven shopping malls over FY16-18, expanding NLA by 22% CPN plans open one mall this year and three each in FY17 and FY18. These would expand total leasable area by 312,120 sq.m (+22%) to 1,702,247 sq.m. Three of the malls will be located in the provinces and one in Malaysia; locations for the rest will be announced soon but likely in Thailand.
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