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Major Cineplex Group Company Update, 18 September 2015 Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) Buy (from Neutral) Communications - Media Target Price: THB38.00 Market Cap: USD794m Price: THB32.00 Macro Risks 3 อนาคตสดใส Growth . 2 0 Value . 02 0 . 02 0 เรามมี มุ มองเชงิ บวกส าหรับผลประกอบการของ MAJOR จากแนวโน ้มภาคการบริโภคที่ . Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) 0 Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) ฟื้นตัวดขี นึ้ ตัง้ แตช่ ว่ งปลายปี 2558 และก าไรที่แข็งแกร่งจากการเข ้าฉายของภาพยนตร์ 0 37 162 ท าเงนิ และสว่ นแบง่ รายได ้จากการเปิดโรงภาพยนตร์ flagship แห่งใหม่ ปรับค าแนะน า 0 35 153 ขึ้นเป็น “ซอื้ ” ที่ราคาเป้าหมายปี 2559 เท่ากับ 38.00 บาท (เดิม 37.60 บาท, 19% ื้ 33 145 upside) โดย MAJOR ใหป้ ันผลสูงแต่ซอขายดว้ ย PE, PBV และ EV/EBITDA ที่ต ่า หากเทยี บกับผปู ้ ระกอบการสอื่ และ consumer อื่นๆ 31 136 29 127 แนวโน้มรายได้แข็งแกร่ง 27 118 แม ้ว่าภาคการบริโภคจะยังอ่อนแอจากสภาวะเศรษฐกิจที่ชะลอตัวแต่เราคาดว่า 25 110 รายได ้ภาพยนตร์ในปี 2558 จะเติบโตราว 5% y-o-y และจะเพิ่มขึ้นเป็นตัวเลข 23 101 สองหลักในปี 2559 เนื่องจาก (i) การฟื้นตัวของภาคการบรโิ ภคอย่างมนี ัยส าคัญ หลังจากมีโครงการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจของรัฐบาล (ii) สว่ นแบ่งก าไรเต็มปีจากโรง 21 92 9 8 ภาพยนตร์ flagship แห่งใหม่ใน Emquartier, CentralPlaza Westgate และ 7 Central East Ville และ (iii) การเข ้าฉายของภาพยนตร์ท าเงินมากมาย 6 5 4 3 ประเมินก าไรในรอบปี 2558-59 เติบโต 20% 2 1 ก าไรจากการด าเนินงานในรอบ 1H58 และก าไรสุทธิเติบโตราว 9% y-o-y และ Vol Vol m 18% ตามล าดับ ในขณะที่ประเมินก าไรปี 2558 เพิ่มขึ้น 20% y-o-y เป็น 1.22 Jul-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 Nov-14 ่ Sep-14 พันล ้านบาท (ท าได ้แล ้วราว 50% ในรอบ 1H58) สวนปีหนา้ เรามองว่ารายไดม้ ี May-15 แนวโน ้มเพิ่มขึ้น 13% y-o-y และก าไรเพิ่มขึ้น 20% y-o-y จากมาร์จิ้นที่ดีขึ้น Source: Bloomberg ปรบั ค าแนะน าขนึ้ เป็ น “ซอื้ ” ที่ราคาเป้าหมายใหม่ปร ับเป็น 38.00 บาท Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 57.7m/1.67m Cons. Upside (%) 9.4 ปัจจุบันราคาหุน้ ปรับลดลงสู่ราคาเขา้ ซอื้ ท ี่ 30.00 บาท เราจึงปรับค าแนะน าเป็น ื้ Upside (%) 18.8 “ซอ” (เดิม “ถือ”) โดยราคาเป้าหมายปี 2559 ค านวณจากวิธี SOP เท่ากับ 38.00 บาท (เดิมราคาเป้าหมายปี 2558 ที่ 37.60 บาท) ประกอบไปด ้วย (i) มูลค่าธุรกิจ 52-wk Price low/high (THB) 22.9 - 36.0 หลัก 36.30 บาทอิงจากประเมิน PE ปี 2559 ที่ 22x (+0.5SD) และ (ii) ก าไรจาก Free float (%) 49 พอร์ตลงทุนจ านวน 1.70 บาท โดยปัจจุบันราคาหุ้น MAJOR ซอื้ ขายดว้ ย PE, Share outstanding (m) 892 PBV และ EV/EBITDA ต ่าหากเทยี บกับผูป้ ระกอบการสอื่ และ consumer รายอื่น Shareholders (%) ในประเทศไทยแม ้ว่าหุ ้นจะมีปันผลสูงที่สุด Vicha Poonwaralak 34.1 Thai NVDR 10.1 ความเสยี่ งหลกั State Street Bank and Trust 6.3 ธุรกิจ MAJOR ขนึ้ อยู่กับภาคการบรโิ ภคในประเทศ ดัชนีความเชอื่ มั่นและการ เติบโตของ GDP เป็ นหลัก ดังนัน้ หากมกี ารชะลอตัวในปัจจัยดังกล่าวอาจส่งผล Share Performance (%) เชงิ ลบตอ่ ก าไร YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute 15.3 (3.8) 0.8 7.6 35.0 Forecasts and Valuations Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Relative 23.0 (1.9) 9.6 16.3 47.0 Total turnover (THBm) 6,963 7,713 8,623 9,248 10,276 Reported net profit (THBm) 846 1,052 1,086 1,306 1,470 Shariah compliant Recurring net profit (THBm) 682 1,052 1,013 1,220 1,470 Recurring net profit growth (%) (12.0) 54.2 (3.7) 20.5 20.5 Wanida Geisler +66 2862 9748 Recurring EPS (THB) 0.77 1.18 1.14 1.37 1.65 [email protected] DPS (THB) 0.87 1.00 1.05 1.25 1.40 Recurring P/E (x) 41.5 27.0 28.1 23.3 19.4 Naruedom Mujjalinkool +66 2862 9229 P/B (x) 4.84 4.65 4.50 4.30 4.12 [email protected] P/CF (x) 15.7 12.8 12.8 14.5 13.5 Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 8.7 7.4 7.1 6.7 Return on average equity (%) 14.4 17.6 17.5 20.2 21.7 Net debt to equity (%) 39.8 70.5 62.0 66.2 67.9 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (8.0) (0.5) TM See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB Powered by EFA Platform 1 Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) 18 September 2015 มูลค่าประเมินและค าแนะน า ราคาเป้าหมายใหม่เท่าก ับ 38.00 บาท (เดิม 37.60 บาท) เราได ้ปรับประมาณการเขา้ สปู่ ี 2559 และค านวณราคาเป้าหมายจากวธิ ี SOP เท่ากับ 36.30 บาท ประกอบไปด ้วย (i) มูลค่าธุรกิจหลัก 36.30 บาทอิงจากประเมิน PE ปี 2559 ที่ 22x (+0.5SD) และ (ii) ก าไรจากพอร์ตลงทุนจ านวน 1.70 บาท โดยปัจจุบันราคาหุ ้น MAJOR ซอื้ ขายดว้ ย PE, PBV และ EV/EBITDA ต ่าหากเทยี บกับผปู ้ ระกอบการสอื่ และ consumer รายอื่นในประเทศไทย แม ้ว่าหุ ้นจะมีปันผลสูงที่สุด และเราให ้ premium PE เนื่องจากเชอื่ ว่าก าไรในปี 2558-59 จะ เติบโตเป็นตัวเลขสองหลักเนื่องจาก (i) การฟื้นตัวของภาคการบรโิ ภคอย่างมนี ัยส าคัญหลังจาก มีโครงการกระตุ ้นเศรษฐกิจของรัฐบาล (ii) สว่ นแบ่งก าไรเต็มปีจากโรงภาพยนตร ์ flagship แห่ง ใหม่ใน Emquartier, CentralPlaza Westgate และ Central East Ville และ (iii) การเข ้าฉาย ของภาพยนตร์ท าเงินมากมาย Figure 1: Major Cineplex’s P/E band Figure 2: Major Cineplex’s investment portfolio THBm 2Q15 Available for sale investment Book value 721 Investment in associates Book value 2,306 Major Cineplex investment: Holding % Market cap Siam Future (NR) 22.46 2,175 Major Cineplex lifestyle leasehold property fund (NR) 33 1,427 PVRL 4.57 944 Total 4,546 Potential gains 1,519 Per share (THB) 1.70 Source: Bloomberg Source: Company data, RHB Figure 3: Peer comparison Media Tickers Market Cap P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) Company THBm 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F Major Cineplex Group MAJOR TB 27,879 21.70 19.00 4.26 4.08 6.71 6.58 3.90 4.50 BEC World BEC TB 68,500 20.71 18.96 8.16 7.75 9.67 8.96 4.51 4.77 RS RS TB 11,492 68.67 27.67 6.63 6.14 15.48 10.68 1.43 2.54 Workpoint Entertainment WORK TB 18,045 75.88 41.95 6.17 5.58 24.91 17.93 0.85 1.53 VGI Global Media VGI TB 25,261 20.44 25.73 9.81 12.11 17.49 18.63 4.38 3.26 Average (Ex-Major Cineplex) 46.43 28.58 7.69 7.89 16.89 14.05 2.79 3.03 Consumer Tickers Market Cap P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) Company THBm 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F 15F 16F Major Cineplex Group MAJOR TB 27,879 21.70 19.00 4.26 4.08 6.71 6.58 3.90 4.50 CP ALL CPALL TB 442,418 33.57 26.97 11.64 9.78 19.57 17.22 1.89 2.20 Home Product Center HMPRO TB 91,401 25.27 22.42 5.03 4.40 13.45 11.82 1.68 1.81 Big C Supercenter BIGC TB 162,113 20.47 18.43 3.39 3.01 12.20 11.26 1.43 1.76 Robinson Department Store ROBINS TB 42,483 19.70 16.96 3.09 2.80 9.83 8.74 2.45 2.87 Average (Ex-Major Cineplex) 24.75 21.19 5.79 5.00 13.76 12.26 1.87 2.16 Source: Bloomberg, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) 18 September 2015 ปัจจ ัยการเติบโตในรอบ 2H58 สว่ นแบง่ รายไดจ้ ากโรงภาพยนตร ์ flagship 2 แห่งใหม่คือ Emquartier และ Central Westgate ในปีนี้ MAJOR ได ้เปิดตัวโรงภาพยนตร์ใหม่ 2 แห่งได ้แก่ Quartier CineArt (ศูนย์การค ้า Emquartier) และ Westgate Cineplex (ศูนย์การค ้า Central Westgate) ซงึ่ เทยี บเท่าโรง ภาพยนตร์ Paragon Cineplex โดยเราคาดว่าจะเป็นตัวหนุนการเติบโตและจะขึ้นเป็น Top 10 ของโรงภาพยนตร์ท าเงินสูงสุด โดยปัจจุบัน 5 แห่งแรกได ้แก่ Paragon Cineplex (16 โรงฉาย), Major Cineplex รัชโยธิน (15 โรงฉาย), Major Cineplex รังสติ (16 โรงฉาย), Mega Cineplex (10 โรงฉาย) และ Major Cineplex Fashion Island (11 โรงฉาย) ตามล าดับ Figure 4: Westgate Cineplex screens advertisement Figure 5: Westgate Cineplex Source: Company Source: RHB Figure 6: Breakdown of Major Cineplex’s branches in prime areas Branch No. of screens ATP Location Mall size (THB) (sq.m. ) Siam Paragon 16 220 One of Bangkok’s top shopping malls, located next to BTS Siam 400,000 station Emquartier 8 220 Opposite Emporium shopping mall, in the middle of Sukumvit 250,000 road next to BTS Phrom Phong station CentralPlaza 12 220 Super Regional Mall in South-East Asia, next to MRT purple line 500,000 Westgate Bangyai station Source: Company data, Central Pattana, Emquartier. Super Regional Mall is a shopping mall with a gross leasable area (GLA) more than 75,000 sq.m (GLA). (Central Westgate has a GLA of 180,000 sq.m.) เพิ่มโรงฉายอีก 74 แห่งใน 2H58 ปัจจุบัน MAJOR มีสาขาทั้งหมด 86 แห่งด ้วยจ านวนโรงฉายรวม 575 แห่ง ประกอบไปด ้วย (1) 30 สาขาในกทม. (2) 54 สาขาในต่างจังหวัด และ (iii) 2 สาขาในกัมพูชาและลาว โดยมีแผน เปิดตัวอีก 74 แหง่ ในชว่ ง 2H58 เพื่อบรรลุเป้าปี 2558 ที่วางไว ้ที่ 620 แห่งให ้ได ้ หากเทยี บเป็ นสัดสว่ นโรงฉายในกทม และต่างจังหวัดในปี 2557 อยู่ที่ 70:30 แต่ได ้ลดลงเป็น 55:45 ในช่วงปลายไตรมาส 2/58 แต่สัดส่วนรายไดก้ ทม และต่างจังหวัดอยู่ที่ 60:40 ตามล าดับ Figure 7: Major Cineplex’s screens expansion Source: Company data See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB) 18 September 2015 Figure 8: Major Cineplex’s screen expansion plan for 2015 Source: Company data ภาพยนตร์จ่อคิวเข้าฉายแข็งแกร่ง เราคาดว่ารายได ้จากตั๋วภาพยนตร์ในไตรมาส 3/58 จะลดลงจากระดับสูงสุดในไตรมาส 2/58 เนื่องจากมีภาพยนตร์ blockbuster เข ้าฉายลดลง แต่คาดจะเติบโตในรอบ y-o-y เนื่องจากมี จ านวนโรงฉายมากกว่าปีที่แล ้วโดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งจาก Quartier Cineplex ที่เปิดไปในไตรมาส 2/58 และเชอื่ วา่ รายไดภ้ าพยนตรจ์ ะฟื้นตัวในไตรมาส 4/58 (y-o-y, q-o-q) Figure 9: Major Cineplex’s movie blockbusters (Grade A movies are highlighted in yellow) 3Q14A 4Q14A 3Q15F 4Q15F 2016 Transformers The Hunger Games 1 Terminator: Genisys Bond 24: 007 Batman V Superman Planet of the Apes The Equalizer Minions Star Wars: Episode VII Suicide Squad The Hobbit 3: The Battle of Guardians of the Galaxy Ant-Man The Hunger Games 2 Captain America 3 the Five Armies Teenage Mutant Ninja Paranormal Activity 5 Mission: Impossible 5 Victor Frankenstein X-Men: Apocalypse Turtles Step Up: All In Dracula Untold The Fantastic Four Fallen The Amazing Spider-Man 3 Hercules Night at Museum The Maze Runner Attack on Titan: Part 2 Deadpool I Fine…Thank You…Love The Expendables 3 Ted 2 Crimson Peak Resident Evil: Final Chapter You The Swimmer Inside Out In the Heart of the Sea Independence Day 2 Secret of Sassy Girl Transporter Refueled Hotel Transylvania 2 Ninja Turtles 2 Everest Pan The
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