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Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB) Share Price: Bt31.25 Target Price: Bt39.00 (+25.0%)

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Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB) Share Price: Bt31.25 Target Price: Bt39.00 (+25.0%) November 14, 2017 OUTPERFORM Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB) Share Price: Bt31.25 Target Price: Bt39.00 (+25.0%) Stronger growth around the corner Company Update Ticket sales should improve qoq and yoy in 4Q17 driven by Hollywood blockbusters, screen expansion, and 4Q16 low base High-margin concession and advertising units to support earnings growth in FY18 OUTPERFORM, Bt39/sh TP implies 29x FY18F PE; stock offers attractive growth and decent yield Impressive movie ticket sales in November At the analyst briefing yesterday, MAJOR guided that ticket sales were weak in October due to the royal cremation ceremony, but grew 100% yoy in the first two weeks of November led by Thor. We expect sales to continue to improve during the rest of the quarter led by Hollywood blockbusters (e.g. Justice League and Star Wars) and Thai movies (e.g. Jazz the Dog) given the low base last year. Concession unit should Kitti PITAKTEERABANDIT continue to deliver double-digit growth in 4Q17 with c.36% con-to-box 662 - 659 7000 ext 5008 COMPANY RESEARCH | ratio (+6ppt yoy) after it started to sell locally-designed instead of [email protected] imported products. Advertising revenue should grow yoy in 4Q17 due to the low-base effect. Overall, we maintain 7% top line growth assumption for FY17 led by admission (+7% yoy), concession (+18% yoy), and Key Data advertising (+4% yoy) revenue. 12-mth High/Low (Bt) 36.5 / 29 Strong earnings momentum from 4Q17 onwards Market Cap (Btm/US$m) 27,958.4 / 845.6 We trimmed FY17F-19F core earnings by 3-7% after adjusting for 3m Avg. Turnover (Btm/US$m) 98.8 / 3 Free Float (%) 59.5 weaker-than-expected GPM at the film distribution unit due to weak Issued Shares (m shares) 895 response to Thai movies and higher SG&A/Sales ratio on higher Major Shareholders: marketing cost. However, MAJOR should deliver strong yoy earnings - POOLVARALUK VICHA 31.8 growth starting 4Q17. We assumed 12%/9% yoy growth in - STATE STREET CORP 7.1 advertising/concession revenues, led by recovering ADEX and - BNY MELLON 5.0 consumption, new branch sponsorship contracts in Cambodia and The Icon Siam which is scheduled to open in mid-2018, and positive Share Price Performance response to locally-designed products. It plans to open 70 new screens in 2018 (from 728 at the end of 2017) mainly in upcountry, and launch 12-15 Thai movies to capture tier-2 market as 42% of its ticket sales are from cinemas upcountry. It also plans to reduce CAPEX per screen from Bt11m currently to Bt7m, to add more screens upcountry to reach out to moviegoers and reduce rental costs, while improving revenue-sharing structure in tier-2 locations to lift margins. OUTPERFORM, Bt39/sh TP; more than just strong movie line-up MAJOR is now trading at 23x FY18F PE, at a slight discount to its 5- year average PE multiple, while earnings will grow at 38%/18% in FY18F/19F vs 9% p.a. average in the last five years. We recommend to accumulate the stock to capture strong box-office, concession and YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth advertising revenues, with potential upside from better-than-expected Absolute (%) (4.6) 3.3 4.2 2.5 ticket sales for Thai movies. Relative to index (%) (13.9) 4.8 (3.9) (10.4) Krungsri Securities vs Market Financial Summary (Btm) Year to Dec 2015 20162017F 2018F 2019F Positive Neutral Negative Sales (Btm) 8,580 8,745 9,330 10,119 10,897 Market Growth (%) (0.5) 1.9 6.7 8.5 7.7 Recommend 13 4 2 EBITDA (Btm) 2,240 1,967 2,327 2,757 3,027 Krungsri Market % +/- Growth (%) (3.8) (12.2) 18.3 18.5 9.8 Target Price (Bt) 39.0 35.9 8.6 Recurring profit (Btm) 933 812 873 1,201 1,420 ’17 Net Profit (Btm) 1,261 1,095 15.2 Growth (%) (4.6) (13.0) 7.5 37.6 18.2 ’18 Net Profit (Btm) 1,201 1,305 (7.9) Net income 1,170 1,188 1,261 1,201 1,420 EPS (Bt) (Core) 1.05 0.91 0.98 1.34 1.59 Growth (%) (4.6) (13.0) 7.5 37.6 18.2 Krungsri's earnings revision PE (x) 29.8 34.4 32.0 23.3 19.7 2017F 2018F DPS (Bt) 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 Earnings revision (%) (7) (3) Yield (%) 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 4.6 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities BVPS (Bt) 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.7 8.0 P/BV (x) 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.9 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Company Update | MAJOR November 14, 2017 MAJOR: Changes to key assumptions FY16 FY17F FY18F FY19F Old New %Ch Old New %Ch Old New %Ch Number of moviegoers (Million) 29.0 31.4 31.4 0 34.0 34.0 0 36.4 36.4 0 Average ticket price (Bt) 166.0 164.6 164.6 0 166.3 166.3 0 167.9 167.9 0 GPM: Admission (%) 16.5 15.6 15.6 0 17.0 17.0 0 19.0 19.0 0 GPM: Concession (%) 68.4 69.4 69.4 0 69.4 69.4 0 69.4 69.4 0 GPM: Advertisement (%) 86.4 87.4 87.4 0 88.0 88.0 0 89.0 89.0 0 Concession to box office revenue (%) 29.9 33.0 33.0 0 33.0 33.0 0 33.0 33.0 0 SG&A to total revenue (%) 27.6 25.3 25.7 0.4 23.8 24.2 0.4 23.8 24.2 0.4 Blended GPM (%) 36.2 36.2 35.5 -0.7 37.6 37.5 -0.1 39.1 38.9 -0.2 Core profit (Btm) 812 942 873 -7 1,240 1,201 -3 1,461 1,420 -3 Source: Company data and Krungsri Securities PE band PB band Source: Bloomberg and Krungsri Securities Source: Bloomberg and Krungsri Securities Krungsri Securities Research 2 Company Update | MAJOR November 14, 2017 P&L (Btm) 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Chg Chg QoQ YoY Sales 2,126.6 1,895.6 2,134.1 2,779.0 2,200.5 -21% 3% Cost of sales (1,347.5) (1,299.6) (1,417.9) (1,726.5) (1,488.4) -14% 10% Gross profit 779.2 596.0 716.2 1,052.5 712.0 -32% -9% SG&A (595.4) (700.5) (553.3) (570.2) (601.3) 5% 1% Operating Profit 183.8 (104.5) 162.9 482.3 110.7 -77% -40% Other income 43.4 94.6 34.9 36.6 59.9 64% 38% Equity income 68.6 52.8 40.6 80.7 83.4 3% 22% EBIT 295.8 42.9 238.4 599.5 254.1 -58% -14% Interest expense (34.2) (36.8) (38.5) (35.7) (33.0) -7% -3% EBT 261.6 6.1 199.9 563.9 221.0 -61% -16% Income tax (73.3) (7.7) (53.4) (130.1) (62.1) -52% -15% Minority interests (4.9) 5.0 1.2 (6.1) (4.4) -28% -11% Core profit 183.4 3.4 147.7 427.7 154.5 -64% -16% Extra items 149.3 81.6 114.1 126.8 147.9 17% -1% Net income 332.7 85.1 261.8 554 302 -45% -9% Shares out (end Q, m) 894.5 894.5 894.5 894.7 894.7 0% 0% Adjusted shares (m) 894.3 894.5 894.5 894.7 894.7 0% 0% Pre-ex EPS 0.21 0.004 0.17 0.48 0.17 -64% -16% EPS 0.37 0.10 0.29 0.62 0.34 -45% -9% Depreciation (311.5) (330.3) (353.9) (299.5) (380.9) 27% 22% EBITDA 495.3 225.8 516.9 781.7 491.6 -37% -1% Key Ratios Gross margin (%) 36.6 31.4 33.6 37.9 32.4 Operating profit margin (%) 8.6 (5.5) 7.6 17.4 5.0 Core profit margin (%) 8.6 0.2 6.9 15.4 7.0 Krungsri Securities Research 3 Company Update | MAJOR November 14, 2017 INCOME STATEMENT (Btm) 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Turnover 8,580 8,745 9,330 10,119 10,897 Cost of sales (COGS) (4,327) (4,367) (4,605) (4,913) (5,233) Depreciation & amortization (1,226) (1,214) (1,411) (1,416) (1,421) Gross profit 3,027 3,165 3,313 3,790 4,243 S&A expenses (2,013) (2,412) (2,398) (2,449) (2,637) Operating profit 1,014 753 916 1,341 1,606 Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 1,014 753 916 1,341 1,606 Interest expense (155) (144) (146) (138) (122) Other income 147 202 142 152 163 Pre-tax profit 1,006 811 912 1,355 1,647 Income tax on company & subsidiaries (300) (237) (268) (393) (478) Profit after tax 706 574 644 962 1,170 Minority interests (11) (19) (15) (16) (17) Share of associate net income 237 256 244 255 268 Preferred dividends 0 0 0 0 0 Recurring attributable net profit 933 812 873 1,201 1,420 Extraordinary items 237 376 389 0 0 Reported net profit 1,170 1,188 1,261 1,201 1,420 Shares in issue (Y/E, m) 895 895 895 895 895 EPS (excluding extraordinary items, Bt) 1.04 0.91 0.98 1.34 1.59 DPS (Bt) 1.14 1.20 1.27 1.21 1.43 DPS/EPS (%) 1.10 1.32 1.30 0.90 0.90 CASH FLOW (Btm) 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Earnings before tax 1,006 811 912 1,355 1,647 Tax paid (300) (237) (268) (393) (478) Depreciation & amortization 1,226 1,214 1,411 1,416 1,421 Chg In working capital 107 (138) 46 (20) (15) Chg In other CA & CL / minorities 142 106 239 224 248 Cash flow from operations 2,182 1,756 2,341 2,582 2,824 Capex (1,854) (1,447) (1,100) (1,000) (900) ST loans & investments - (8) - - - LT loans & investments (188) (214) - - - Adj for asset revaluation - - - - - Chg In other assets & liabilities 425 677 327 (83) (82) Cash flow from investments (1,617) (991) (773) (1,083) (982) Debt financing 90 586 (646) (391) (663) Capital increase 50 40 (0) 0 - Dividends paid (980) (1,072) (1,103) (1,108) (1,179) Warrants & other surplus 11 (100) - - - Cash flow from financing (830) (546) (1,749) (1,499) (1,842) Free cash flow 328 309 1,241 1,582 1,924 Net Cash Flow or Chg In Cash (265) 219 (181) 0 0 Krungsri Securities Research 4 Company Update | MAJOR November 14, 2017 BALANCE SHEET (Btm) 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F Cash & equivalents 312 531 350 350 350 A/C receivable 1,181 1,256 1,340 1,454 1,565 Inventory 183 98 105 111 117 Others 355 457 488 529 570 Total Current Assets 2,030 2,342 2,284 2,444 2,602 Property and equipment 7,358 7,591 7,280 6,864 6,342 Investments & associates 2,826 3,040 3,040 3,040 3,040 Other assets 2,032 1,743 1,860 2,017 2,172 Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 Total Assets 14,246 14,717 14,464 14,364 14,157 Short-term debt 3,366 4,475 3,924 3,590 3,023 A/C payable 1,908 1,761 1,899 1,998 2,100 Other current liabilities 206 183
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