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Unconventional Monetary Policy and Systemic Risk in European Banking

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Unconventional Monetary Policy and Systemic Risk in European Banking UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND SYSTEMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN BANKING Word count: 14.839 Evi Verhelst Student number : 01202540 Supervisor: Prof. dr. Rudi Vander Vennet Co-supervisor: Elien Meuleman Master’s Dissertation submitted to obtain the degree of: Master of Science in Business Engineering Academic year: 2016 - 2017 UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND SYSTEMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN BANKING Word count: 14.839 Evi Verhelst Student number : 01202540 Supervisor: Prof. dr. Rudi Vander Vennet Co-supervisor: Elien Meuleman Master’s Dissertation submitted to obtain the degree of: Master of Science in Business Engineering Academic year: 2016 - 2017 PERMISSION I declare that the content of this Master’s Dissertation may be consulted and/or reproduced, provided that the source is referenced. Evi Verhelst NEDERLANDSTALIGE SAMENVATTING Toen na de uitbraak van de crisis in 2008 de conventionele maatregelen niet genoeg bleken, introduceerde de Europese Centrale Bank nieuwe, onconventionele maatregelen. Deze waren vooral gericht op het uitbreiden van de bankbalansen. Hoewel deze onconventionele maatregelen er zijn gekomen in de strijd voor de heropleving van het financiële systeem, wordt er in de literatuur toch ook veel bewijs aangereikt dat deze maatregelen bijdragen tot een verhoogd risico. Vandaar doet deze masterproef onderzoek naar het effect van de aankondigingen van deze onconventionele maatregelen op het systeemrisico. Systeemrisico is het risico op een ineenstorting van het financiële systeem als gevolg van de grote complexiteit en de wederzijdse afhankelijkheid tussen banken. In de literatuurstudie worden drie verschillende transmissiekanalen van onconventioneel monetair beleid naar risico en meer bepaald naar het systeemrisico beschreven, namelijk de transmissie door interestvoeten, activaprijzen en liquiditeit. Verder wordt ook de heterogeniteit tussen banken beschreven. Voor het onderzoek naar het verband tussen het systeemrisico en de maatregelaankondigingen, werd een panelanalyse met 67 beursgenoteerde Europese banken uitgevoerd. De data waartussen de effecten van de aankondigingen werden onderzocht liepen van oktober 2008 tot december 2015 en de hier gebruikte indicator voor het systeemrisico is de ‘Marginal Expected Shortfall’ of kort gezegd de MES. In een eerste stap werden de belangrijkste onconventionele aankondigingen gefilterd, waarop we de effecten van de monetaire beleidsschok gemeten aan de hand van de spread van Italiaanse en Duitse overheidsobligaties op 10 jaar op de MES onderzoeken. Deze regressie werd herhaald voor verschillende bankkarakteristieken om de heterogeniteit tussen banken met veel en weinig kapitaal, banken uit kernlanden en de periferie, banken met een hoog en laag systeemrisico, banken met veel en weinig leningen, niet-uitvoerige leningen, stortingen en niet-interest inkomen te ontdekken. Aangezien deze resultaten weinig zeggend waren werden de regressies nog eens overgedaan, maar dan met andere monetaire schokken. Uit dit onderzoek is gebleken dat het systeemrisico steeg nadat onconventionele programma’s werden aangekondigd. Deze vaststelling bleef ook gelden voor bijna alle programma’s (CBPP, SMP en OMT, QE) afzonderlijk. De enige uitzondering zijn de OMT aankondigingen die, wanneer de SMP aankondigingen buiten beschouwing worden gelaten, het systeemrisico verlagen. Wanneer gekeken wordt naar FRFA en LTRO aankondigen is er geen eenduidig effect waarneembaar. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS After the choice of the subject for my master’s dissertation in October 2015, the moment of finishing it is finally there. Writing this foreword is the last thing to make this work complete. During these last two years of my master in business engineering, I acquired a lot of new theoretical knowledge where writing this master’s dissertation especially contributed to. To fulfil this big task to good end, I had of course help and support from a lot of different people who I therefore want to thank. First I want to thank my supervisor Rudi Vander Vennet, who gave me the opportunity to work on a very interesting topic and showed me new captivating insights. Secondly, a heartfelt word of thank is addressed to Elien Meuleman, who was always there to answer my questions, gave good advice, provided me the necessary data and offered support during the whole period. At last, I want to thank my parents, sister and friends for listening when things didn’t go as they should and for the support and believe in me to finish successfully my academic study. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS NEDERLANDSTALIGE SAMENVATTING ..................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................ii LIST OF USED ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................ iv LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES .................................................................................................................. v 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 2. MONETARY POLICY AND SYSTEMIC RISK......................................................................................... 4 2.1 Unconventional programmes .............................................................................................. 4 2.2 Transmission channels from monetary policy to systemic risk ........................................... 5 3. LINK TO BANK HETEROGENEITY ................................................................................................... 14 3.1 Loans to Total Assets and Non-Performing Loans ............................................................. 14 3.2 Deposits to total liabilities ................................................................................................. 15 3.3 Capital to total assets ........................................................................................................ 16 3.4 Non-interest income to total income ................................................................................ 17 4. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................ 18 4.1 Measuring systemic risk .................................................................................................... 19 4.2 Measuring monetary shock ............................................................................................... 20 4.3 Model ................................................................................................................................ 20 5. DATA ............................................................................................................................................. 23 6. RESULTS ........................................................................................................................................ 24 6.1 Results regression analysis ................................................................................................ 28 6.2 Discussion .......................................................................................................................... 33 7. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 36 8. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... i 9. APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................................ vi iii LIST OF USED ABBREVIATIONS ABSPP: Asset-Backed Securities Purchase Programme CAP: Capital to total assets CBPP: Covered Bond Purchase Programme CDS: Credit Default Swap CoVaR: Conditional Value at Risk CSPP: Corporate Sector Purchase Programme DIP: Distress Insurance Premium DIV: Non-interest income to total income DTL: Deposits to total liabilities ECB: European Central Bank EDF: Expected Default Frequency FRFA: Fixed-Rate Full Allotment GovC: Governing Council I-G: Italy-Germany IID: Independently Identically Distributed LTA: Loans to total assets ratio LTRO: Long-Term Refinancing Operations MES: Marginal Expected Shortfall MRO: Main Refinancing Operations NIM: Net Interest Margin NPL: Non-Performing Loans OIS: Overnight Indexed Swap OLS: Ordinary Least Squares OMT: Outright Monetary Transactions PSPP: Public Sector Purchase Programme SMP: Securities Market Programme TLTRO: Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations UMP: Unconventional Monetary Policy QE: Quantitative Easing VaR: Value at Risk iv LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Clarification on Figure 1. .......................................................................................................... 24 Table 2: Clarification on Figure 2 ........................................................................................................... 26 Table 3: t statistics ................................................................................................................................. 35 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Delta MES in a one day window ............................................................................................. 24 Figure 2: Delta MES plotted (high versus low capitalised banks).........................................................
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