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The Role of Monetary and Financial Reform in Approaching the European Union

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The Role of Monetary and Financial Reform in Approaching the European Union o THE ROLE OF MONETARY AND FINANCIAL REFORM IN APPROACHING THE EUROPEAN UNION - THE CASE OF SERBIA - Jelena Zekic A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of Greenwich for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2005 Abstract_____________________________________ By making use of various social science research methods, in particular semi-structured interviews, this thesis reveals the main features of the Serbia's 15-year long transition experience, which took place against a background of frequent constitutional changes over the period 1989 to 2004. Serbia's transition began in December 1989 with the Markovic programme, while the Republic was a constitutive part of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). The study confirms that the SRFY was the first country to start transition from a socialist to a market economy, but that this advanced position was lost due to a lack of political consensus, and the dissolution of the country in 1991. As part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) which was formed in 1992, Serbia during the 1990s went through the most devastating period in its modern (economic) history, experiencing the second highest and the second longest hyperinflation ever registered (1992-1994). The battle against (hyper)inflation and economic recovery took the form of the Avramovic programme of January 1994, but failed to deliver any prolonged stabilisation and growth. Additionally, during the period of FRY, when Slobodan Milosevic was in power, an extensive regime of economic and non-economic sanctions were imposed on Serbia by the international community (1991-2000). Moreover, in 1999, the country was faced with the seriousness of the Kosovo conflict and NATO bombing, and the concomitant impact of these events on economic life. As a result of all this, Serbia's transition process was stillborn throughout much of the 1990s and public confidence in the state institutions, including the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), was entirely lost. Transition resumed in 2001, following the 'bulldozer revolution' of 5 October 2000, and has since followed the main postulates of the transition blueprint which was based on the so-called "Washington Consensus". The exchange-rate based stabilisation programme brought positive results as early as 2002 and 2003, notably in bringing down inflation. The combination of a de facto fixed exchange rate regime (formally announced as a managed float) and gloomy prospects of an ever-raising current account deficit and public debt, however, gave rise to a wide-ranging debate on the role of exchange rate and monetary policy in the overall process of economic recovery. Our analysis reveals that there is space, although limited due to the high "euroisation" of the Serbian economy, for a more active monetary policy. This would allow a substantial depreciation of the real dinar exchange rate, of importance given the demands of WTO and EU membership, namely full capital account liberalisation. Since February 2003, Serbia again changed its constitutional robe by becoming a member state of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro. Following this constitutional change in June 2003, after a decade-long delay, Serbia's central bank reform was eventually initiated and the new NBS Law was enacted. The evidence contained in this work suggests that the NBS's legal independence perfectly matches the transitional average, but that the actual NBS's independence is a cause for concern. So as to prevent the inclusion of the 'systemic error' into the new Serbian constitution - by which a single person (i.e. the governor) is the sole source of monetary policymaking - the study proposes several principles which may guide the drafting process. Additionally, the thesis points to provisions of the current NBS Law which need to be adapted in line with the EMU acquis. The study concludes by rising the question of how the NBS's credibility can be restored, proposing a new NBS's approach to transparency as a possible solution. 11 Acknowledgements Contrary to the usual conventions, by which the gratitude to family and friends comes at the end, I would like to thank them first. Especially to my mother, who has supported me firmly throughout my scholarly years, even beyond the imaginary limits of a regular mother's duties and understanding for whatever her children are doing. I am also grateful to my brother and father for their lucid comments. Special thanks I owe also to Lav, for his positive attitude toward my prolonged postgraduate education, so atypical for Balkan men. To my dear friends, above all to Tanja and Lana, I am indebted to their limitless practical and emotional support. On a more professional note, first and foremost, I would like to express my infinite gratitude and appreciation to Professor Zeljko Sevic for offering me, without any reservations, his generous pedagogical and expert advice. I am also grateful for his trusting me, and for guiding me through the process of writing this thesis. I would also like to acknowledge the professionalism by which he has approached all administrative and substantial matters that mounted over the course of writing of this thesis, thereby greatly easing and comforting my own work. I would also like to thank to the managerial and operational staff of the University of Greenwich Business School for their continuous financial and administrative support, and especially to Professor Leslie Johnson, Head of School, Mr Pat Baynes, Business School Director of Resources, and Professor Janet McDonnell, Director of Doctoral Programmes. I am as well grateful to my comrade Dr Edouard Mambu Ma Khenzu for long talks about the social science methodological approaches and guidance through the literature search in the early years of my doctoral studies. To Mr Bozidar Djelic (Altis Capital), the former Serbian Finance Minister, I thank for all the entrusted tasks while my engagement on the UNDP Capacity Building Project for the Finance Ministry, for the opportunity to freely express my own ideas, and for constant optimism and faith in Serbia's brighter future. Had not I had the opportunity to work with him and the then-Ministry of Finance reform team under tough deadlines and pressing subjects, I would most probably not have trusted myself to have the strength required to complete as demanding a task as a part-time PhD. 111 Equally, I thank enormously to Mrs Aleksandra Drecun (Presidency of the Republic of Serbia), the former Serbian Finance Ministry Secretary General, for teaching me the nitty- gritty of public administration reform and offering me a chance to contribute to it personally by setting up a small and agile EU-unit within the Ministry of Finance in 2002, the first of that kind in Serbia. I also thank her for long talks about the operational aspects of the distribution of political power and other intriguing issues, and more practically, for allowing me to use her rich collection of professional literature. Special thanks I owe to my friend Mr Marko Micanovic (Altis Capital), a former member of the Serbian Securities Commission, for long discussions on a wide range of political, economic and central banking issues and for reviewing bits of Chapter V of this thesis. I also express an affectionate thanks to Mr Damjan Krnjevic Miskovic (Presidency of the Republic of Serbia), a contemporary philosopher, for showing an interest in the Serbian transitional monetary experience and for painstakingly correcting my grammar. To Mr Lazar Sestovic (World Bank) I am thankful for the useful comments he made on the macroeconomic part of my thesis contained in Chapter III. Equally, I am indebted to Ms Ivana Prica (University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics) for sharp insightful talks on the financial and trade issues of today's Serbia. To Mr Predrag Radlovacki (Volksbank) I thank for clarifications on debt management and open market operations questions. To my long-time friend Dr Jelena Kosoric (University of London), whom I have known from another life we both had lived in Sarajevo, I owe many thanks for helping me find my way through the labyrinth of the United Kingdom's best libraries and for making my time in London so comfortable. To her friend, Mr Christopher Bickerton (Oxford University), who has become my friend too, I also thank for assisting me in acquiring some of the most valuable economics-related works on Earth and for correcting my English. For similar reasons, I am grateful to Dr Joachim H. Wehner (London School of Economics). I also thank to Mrs Jelena Sedlacek (Serbian Ministry of Finance), Mrs Aleksandra Milenkovic Bukumirovic (Serbian Ministry for International Economic Relations) and Dr Ranko Nedeljkovic (State Union Statistical Bureaux) for helping me find and access numerous legal sources and statistical data used in this thesis. For the same reasons I am thankful to the professional staff of the National Bank of Serbia Library, the Government of Serbia Archive and the State Union Library. IV The understanding and practical support of my current employer, the European Commission, represented by Ambassador Josep M. Lloveras, Head of the Delegation to Serbia and Montenegro, and my direct superior Mrs Esmeralda Hernandez Aragones, Counsellor, as well as my other colleagues, is kindly acknowledged. Being a part of such a powerful institution, in a moment in which Serbia is preparing for the negotiations and signing of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU, makes me feel especially proud. I can only hope that my own work here, and my daily work on the EU- related issues that I do at the Delegation as Trade and European Integration Officer, will contribute something to this process. I also greatly acknowledge the financial support from the British Council during my specialisation at the University of Greenwich as well as friendly support of the people who stood behind my Chevening Scholarship, Mr Chris Gibbson, the British Council Director in Belgrade, Mrs Nevenka Aleksic, Deputy Director, and Mrs Snezana Lekic, the former Chevening Scholarship Manager.
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