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Can Authoritarian Regimes Learn? the Cases of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia And View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by University of Birmingham Research Archive, E-theses Repository 1 CAN AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES LEARN? THE CASES OF BELARUS, KAZAKHSTAN, RUSSIA AND UKRAINE. BY STEPHEN HALL A Thesis submitted as part of the requirements for MARES Russian and East European Studies at the University of Birmingham Centre for Russian and East European Studies School of Government and Society College of Social Sciences University of Birmingham Date of Submission 09/2014 Word Count: 40,000 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. 2 ABSTRACT Authoritarian learning has received scant attention in academic literature. This analysis emphasises how authoritarian regimes in the former-Soviet Union (FSU) learn from one another to consolidate authoritarianism. The argument is that regimes use similar tactics and institutions to consolidate authoritarianism. The study uses the cases of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine to offer comprehensive analysis of authoritarian consolidation. Using a methodology of case studies, longitudinal analysis and discourse analysis, I show that these regimes have become more authoritarian, using similar tactics and building comparable institutions. The research suggests that the cases share similar characteristics that seem unlikely to have appeared in each state by themselves. Learning is the most applicable explanation for this. The investigation uses hypotheses that make a strong case for authoritarian learning. The thesis argues that existing authoritarian typologies should explain a few cases which share similarities. Currently, literature uses a chosen rubric universally to explain many cases. This weakens typologies, exhausting effectiveness in explaining different authoritarian regimes. 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to give an especial thanks to Dr. David White especially for providing me with his time, meeting at conferences and phone-calls to help me formulate ideas for the thesis. I would also like to thank Dr. Derek Averre and Dr. Victoria Hudson for their invaluable insights and ideas into formulating work and providing me with possible avenues to explore. To Lance Davies, Martin Stein, Zhen Shi and Alex Feldman for the copious amounts of coffees and listening to me as well as offering support. I would like to thank my mother for reading it through for punctuation mistakes and spelling corrections. I would like to thank Elena Grigorevna at the Higher School of Economics for her insights. For Oksana Gavrilova, an extra special thank you for your support and acting as a sound board for me to gauge potential ideas with. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………2 Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3 Table of Contents…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4 List of Abbreviations…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….8 List of Maps and Graphs………………………………………………………………………………………………………9 Chapter One: Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………..10 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 15 The Argument for Authoritarian Learning and Consolidation...……………………………….20 Plan of the Thesis……………………………………………………………………………………………………22 Chapter Two: Understanding Authoritarianism and its Variants………………………………….….24 Authoritarian Adjectives…………………………………………………………………………………………24 Competitive Authoritarianism…………………………………………………………………….25 Electoral Authoritarianism…………………………………………………………………………26 Hegemonic Authoritarianism……………………………………………………………………..28 Authoritarianism……………………………………………………………………………………………….…..30 Political Parties………………………………………………………………………………………....33 Elections……………………………………………………………………………………………….…...34 Parliament......................................................................................................36 Media..............................................................................................................38 Opposition.......................................................................................................40 Civil Society…………………………………………………………………………………………………42 The Economy………………………………………………………………………………………………44 5 Coercion……………………………………………………………………………………………………45 Leader Popularity……………………………………………………………………………………..47 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….48 Chapter Three: Authoritarian Learning…………………………………………………………………………50 Diffusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………………51 Linkage and Leverage…………………………………………………………………………………………..54 Soft Power……………………………………………………………………………………………………………56 The Theory of Authoritarian Learning………………………………………………………………….57 Authoritarian Linkage and Leverage in the FSU…………………………………………………….60 Russia’s Foreign Policy………………………………………………………………………………………….60 The Ideology behind Russian Foreign Policy………………………………………………60 Russian Foreign Policy in Understanding Authoritarian Learning……………..61 Russian Soft Power in the FSU………………………………………………………………………………63 Russian Linkage and Leverage in the FSU………………………………………………………………65 FSU Regional Organisations………………………………………………………………………65 Russia and Kazakhstan……………………………………………………………………………..67 Russia and Ukraine…………………………………………………………………………………..69 Russia and Belarus……………………………………………………………………………………72 Minsk’s Preventative Counter Revolution. Teaching Moscow? ..............................75 Russia’s Preventative Counter Revolution……………………………………………………………78 Hypotheses for further Research in the Proceeding Chapters……………………………..82 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..84 6 Chapter Four: Authoritarian Learning in the FSU……………………………………………………….86 Data Analysis: An Authoritarian Trend? ……………………………………………………………87 Freedom of the Press (FotP)…………………………………………………………………..99 Graph One…………………………………………………………………………………………….100 Freedom in the World (FitW)…………………………………………………………………100 Graph Two…………………………………………………………………………………………….101 Nations in Transit (NiT)…………………………………………………………………………102 Graph Three…………………………………………………………………………………………103 Graph Four……………………………………………………………………………………………104 Graph Five…………………………………………………………………………………………….104 Graph Six……………………………………………………………………………………………….105 Graph Seven………………………………………………………………………………………….105 Graph Eight…………………………………………………………………………………………..106 Graph Nine…………………………………………………………………………………………...106 Summary of Findings…………………………………………………………………………………………107 Chapter Five: The Language of Authoritarianism………………………………………………………110 Discourse Analysis Methodology………………………………………………………………………110 Justification of Discourse Analysis…………………………………………………………………….111 Justification of Variables…………………………………………………………………………………..112 Discourse Analysis of the Four Cases………………………………………………………………..114 Democracy……………………………………………………………………………………………114 Parliament…………………………………………………………………………………………….119 Electoral System……………………………………………………………………………………123 7 Civil Society………………………………………………………………………………………….130 NGOs……………………………………………………………………………………................133 Opposition……………………………………………………………………………………………138 Corruption……………………………………………………………………………………………142 Media…………………………………………………………………………………………………..145 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………....153 Chapter Six: Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………….......158 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………………………….................167 Appendix One: Discourse Analysis References………………………………………………................214 8 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS Asia-Pacific Economic Council APEC Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Co-operation BSEC Collective Security Treaty Organisation CSTO Common Economic Space CES Commonwealth of Independent States CIS Council of the Baltic Sea States CBSS European Court of Human Rights ECHR Eurasian Economic Community EurAsEc Eurasian Union EaU European Union EU Former Soviet Union FSU North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NATO Russia Today RT Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SCO World Trade Organisation WTO 9 LIST OF MAPS AND GRAPHS MAPS Map One: States of the FSU GRAPHS Graph One Freedom of the Press in the FSU states from 1994-2012 Graph Two: Freedom in the World 1999-2013 Graph Three: Nations in Transit: Democracy Scores of FSU states from 2003-2012 Graph Four: Nations in Transit: Electoral Process Scores of FSU states from 2003-2012 Graph Five: Nations in Transit: Civil Society Scores of FSU states from 2003-2012 Graph Six: Nations in Transit: Independent Media Scores of FSU states from 2003-2012 Graph Seven: Nations in Transit: Judicial Independence Scores of FSU states from 2003-2012 Graph Eight: Nations in Transit: Corruption Scores of FSU states from 2003-2012 Graph Nine: Nations in Transit: Governance Scores of the FSU states from 2003-2012 10 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION In 2003 a new type of phenomenon occurred in the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Its apogee arose a year later in 2004. The ‘colour revolutions’ that transpired in Georgia (2003) and Ukraine (2004) brought significant numbers of protestors onto the streets of Tbilisi and Kiev, demonstrating against alleged
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