A Nationally Representative Survey

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Understanding the American Insurrectionist Movement: A Nationally Representative Survey

Conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago in collaboration the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST)

Interview Dates: June 10-June 14, 2021 1,070 adults Margin of Error: 4.16% at the 95% confidence level among all adults

Survey Questions

UCHI1. [Question posed to self-identified Christians, n = 691] “How likely is it that the Second Coming of Jesus Christ will happen in your lifetime?”

CPOST/NORC July 2021 – Understanding the American Insurrectionist Movement Extremely Likely .1263 Somewhat Likely .1507 Neither Likely nor Unlikely .3596 Somewhat Unlikely .1284 Extremely Unlikely .2052 DON’T KNOW .0149 SKIPPED .0148

UCHI2. “Personally, how concerned are you about losing your primary source of income in the next 12 months?”

CPOST/NORC July 2021 – Understanding the American Insurrectionist Movement Extremely Concerned .0919 Moderately Concerned .0655 Somewhat Concerned .1595 Slightly Concerned .2138 Not at all Concerned .4598 SKIPPED .0094

UCHI6. “Please indicate to what extent each of the following has been a source of news for you in 2021”

CPOST/NORC July 2021 – Understanding the American Insurrectionist Movement Major Source Minor Source Not a Source DON’T KNOW SKIPPED Fox 0.1723 0.2748 0.5392 0.00066 0.013 CNN 0.1674 0.3417 0.4775 0 0.0133 Newsmax or One America News Network 0.0562 0.1468 0.783 0 0.014 Major TV networks, such as ABC, CBS, NBC 0.3074 0.3393 0.3357 0 0.0176 Public TV or radio, such as PBS or NPR 0.1807 0.3353 0.47 0 0.014 Major newspapers, such as The New York Times or 0.1381 0.2953 0.5499 0 0.0167 the Washington Post Talk Radio, such as The Sean Hannity Show or The 0.0648 0.175 0.7435 0 0.0167 Rush Limbaugh Show Infowars 0.0158 0.0822 0.8728 0.0056 0.0235

UCHI7. “Please indicate to what extent each of the following has been a source of news for you in 2021”

CPOST/NORC July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey

Major Source Minor Source Not a Source DON’T KNOW SKIPPED

Facebook 0.1072 0.3401 0.5363 0 0.0165 Twitter 0.0567 0.1677 0.7592 0 0.0163 Parler 0.0165 0.0594 0.9066 0.004 0.0134 Reddit 0.0588 0.1211 0.8062 0.0011 0.0129 8chan/8kun 0.0077 0.0549 0.9191 0.0044 0.0139 YouTube 0.0945 0.256 0.6356 0 0.0139 Some Other Platform 0.0506 0.1766 0.7521 0.004 0.0166

UCHI8. “How favorable is your impression of each of the following people, or haven't you heard of them?”

CPOST/NORC July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey Donald Trump Joe Biden Very Favorable .1727 .2468 Somewhat Favorable .1779 .2766 Somewhat Unfavorable .1266 .1502 Very Unfavorable .4869 .2868 Haven’t heard enough .0295 .0314 SKIPPED .0051 .0082 Refused .0011 0

UCHI9. “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements:”

CPOST/NORC July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey Neither Some- Some- Strongly Agree Strongly DON’T what what SKIPPED Refused Agree nor Disagree KNOW Agree Disagree Disagree The 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and 0.1602 0.0957 0.1821 0.0681 0.4874 0.0011 0.0054 0 Joe Biden is an illegitimate president The use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to 0.0477 0.0427 0.1829 0.0622 0.6603 0.00035 0.0038 0 the presidency A secret group of Satan-worshiping pedophiles is ruling 0.0524 0.0546 0.2579 0.0658 0.5548 0.0097 0.0048 0 the US government The traditional American way of life is disappearing so 0.0672 0.1305 0.2535 0.0849 0.4553 0.00035 0.0083 0 fast that we may have to use force to save it. Militias like the Oath Keepers and groups like the 0.0195 0.0404 0.248 0.0775 0.5902 0.0106 0.0139 0 Proud Boys are needed to defend liberty in America. African American people or Hispanic people in our 0.0973 0.143 0.2706 0.1047 0.3712 0.0019 0.0102 0.0011 country will eventually have more rights than whites. Women who complain about harassment often cause 0.0509 0.0932 0.265 0.151 0.4238 0.00035 0.0157 0 more problems than they solve.

UCHI10. “There are many reasons why some people own guns and others do not. How many guns do you own?”

NORC/CPOST July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey 0 .6285 1 .1021 2 or more .15705 DON’T KNOW .00087 SKIPPED .1109 Refused .00058

UCHI12. “On a scale of 1 to 5 – where “1” means you think the institution is your enemy and “5” means you think the institution is your friend – where on this scale would you place yourself?”

NORC/CPOST July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey Federal State Local Police Government Government Government One .123 .0983 .0765 .1122 Two .1701 .1398 .0981 .1044 Three .4226 .4013 .392 .2494 Four .1868 .2449 .292 .264 Five .0754 .089 .1107 .2481 DON’T KNOW 0 0 .0031 .00035 SKIPPED .0217 .0263 .0277 .0215 Refused .00035 .00035 0 0

Veteran: “Have you ever served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces, military Reserves, or National Guard?”

NORC/CPOST July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey Yes .0968 No .9032

Metropolitan Area Flag

NORC/CPOST July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey Non- Metropolitan .1558 Area Metro Area .8442

Party Identification

NORC/CPOST July 2021 – American Political Violence Survey Democrat .4451 Independent .1703 Republican .3719 Unknown .0128

Study Methodology

NORC at the University of Chicago conducted the study in collaboration with the Chicago Project on Security and Threats and the University of Chicago. The survey was designed and written by CPOST. Data were collected using AmeriSpeak Omnibus®, a monthly multi-client survey using NORC’s probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. household population.

Funded and operated by NORC at the University of Chicago, AmeriSpeak® is a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the US household population. Randomly selected US households are sampled using area probability and address-based sampling, with a known, non-zero probability of selection from the NORC National Sample Frame. These sampled households are then contacted by US mail, telephone, and field interviewers (face to face). The panel provides sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box only addresses, some addresses not listed in the USPS Delivery Sequence File, and some newly constructed dwellings. While most AmeriSpeak households participate in surveys by web, non-internet households can participate in AmeriSpeak surveys by telephone. Households without conventional internet access but having web access via smartphones are allowed to participate in AmeriSpeak surveys by web. AmeriSpeak panelists participate in NORC studies or studies conducted by NORC on behalf of governmental agencies, academic researchers, and media and commercial organizations.

Interviews for this survey were conducted between June 10 and June 14, 2021, with adults age 18 and over representing the 50 states of the United States and the District of Columbia. Panel members were randomly drawn from AmeriSpeak, and 1,070 completed the survey— 1,035 via the web and 35 via telephone. Interviews were conducted in English. The final stage completion rate is 16 percent. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 4.16 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level, including the design effect. The margin of sampling error may be higher for subgroups.

Once the sample has been selected and fielded, and all the study data have been collected and made final, a poststratification process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any non-coverage or under- and oversampling resulting from the study-specific sample design. Poststratification variables included age, gender, Census division, race/ethnicity, and education. Standard AmeriSpeak weighting includes a base weight to correct for disproportionate probabilities of selection, non-response adjustments, and sample balancing to Census benchmarks on age, education, gender, race/ethnicity, and geographic population distributions.

All differences reported between subgroups of the U.S. population are at the 95 percent level of statistical significance, meaning that there is only a 5 percent (or lower) probability that the observed differences could be attributed to chance variation in sampling 7