The Challenges and Opportunities to Syrian : ωϭοϭϣϟϡγ Reconciliation after the Moscow Declaration The Challenges and Opportunities to : ωϭοϭϣϟϥϭϧϋ Syrian Reconciliation after the Moscow Declaration 28/12/2016 : έηϧϟΦϳέΎΗ
ΔϣΩϘΗϣϟΕΎγέΩϟϭΙΎΣΑϸϟϝΑϘΗγϣϟίϛέϣ : ΏΗΎϛϟϡγ
: ωϭοϭϣϟ
9/26/2021 11:04:06 PM 1 / 2 It appears that the Moscow Declaration, issued on Dec. 20th, 2016, will constitute a major turning point in the Syrian crisis. The declaration was issued after meetings in Moscow between the foreign and defense ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran. With the issuance of the declaration, Russian leadership, and Turko-Iranian participation, common ground seems to have emerged between these three players on a pragmatic basis, which may overcome the complex dimensions of the Syrian conflict. After the major evacuation deal with the Syrian opposition on Dec. 13th, 2016, with Turkish mediation and Russian guarantees, it may be said that the issue no longer revolves around security arrangements and Aleppo¶s political future. Talks have now expanded to encompass vital aspects of the conflict related to re-engineering the local, regional and international balance of power, and the future limits of influence for all actors involved. Though the Moscow Declaration is, at least momentarily, a strategic military and diplomatic success for Russia, there are significant challenges ahead. Among the most pressing of these is the chasm between Russia, Turkey and Iran. This chasm exists due to continuing conflicts on other fronts, which reduces the chances of the Moscow Declaration¶s success and future emulation. There are also other challenges related to the role of major players, particularly the United States in light of the approaching presidency of Donald Trump.Possible Security Arrangements:It is worth pointing out that the trilateral meeting of n the Moscow Declaration coincided with a meeting of their respective defense ministers. This indicates that the diplomatic plans hatched at those meetings will immediately be translated into a military and security context in order to implement them. According to sources, this is what indeed occurred despite the disagreements overshadowing the meetings, especially the Turkish-Iranian disputes over the role of Hezbollah in Syria. In this context, there are indications of a likely repeat of the ³Darayya Scenario´with respect to the security arrangements in Aleppo. According to this view, the security presence in eastern Aleppo will be exclusively composed of the Syrian regime and its allies. Realistically, the Iranian-backed militias, especially Hezbollah, will be the predominant presence in that area in light of the estimated numbers of their fighters in relation to the Syrian military. It is also clear that Turkey will be observing the Aleppo security arrangements, but what is of concern to the Turks is the maintenance of an anti-regime block, specifically the Free Syrian Army, on the borders of western Aleppo. This would be in order to prevent a Kurdish presence in that area. It is now clear that Turkish aims in Syria have regressed from advancing political gains on the ground, to merely attempting to halt Kurdish expansion towards the Syrian-Turkish borders. The latest field maps published by the US-based Institute for the Study of War show that the arrangement of Turkish and opposition forces appears to be geared towards containing the Kurds. Contrasting Ramifications:Through the agreement, Russia has sought to attain its strategic goals in Aleppo, which include strengthening its leadership position in Syria, and thus its position in relation to all actors involved. Russia seeks to cement its status as an indispensable sponsor and guarantor of any future agreements. Russia has also sought to weaken and splinter the Syrian