China’s Evolving Nuclear Posture Part II – The Evolution of China’s Nuclear Strategy Donald A. Neill Strategic Analysis Section DRDC CORA TM 2011-156 September 2011 Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis China Team Sponsor: Strategic Joint Staff &KLQD VHYROYLQJQXFOHDUSRVWXUH Part II - The evolution of China's nuclear strategy D.A. Neill DRDC CORA The reported results, their interpretation, and any opinions expressed herein, remain those of the author and do not represent, or otherwise reflect, any official position of DND or the government of Canada. Defence R&D Canada – CORA Technical Memorandum DRDC CORA TM 2011-156 September 2011 Principal Author Original signed by D.A. Neill, Ph.D. D.A. Neill, Ph.D. Strategic Analyst Approved by Original signed by G. Smolynec, Ph.D. G. Smolynec, Ph.D. Section Head, Strategic Analysis Approved for release by Original signed by P. Comeau P. Comeau Chief Scientist This paper has been produced under Thrust 10a as part of the China/Asia ARP. Defence R&D Canada – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA) © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2011 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract …….. This paper is the second part of a larger study the principal purpose of which is to determine the trajectory of China’s nuclear weapons policy, strategy, capability and doctrine. Building on the first paper, which provided a benchmark for comparative analysis in the form of an overview of the evolution of US nuclear strategy since the end of the Second World War, this paper discusses the origins of China’s nuclear strategy; its view of deterrence; what certain elements of its declaratory policy reveal about Beijing’s nuclear strategy; and where that strategy appears to stand at present. The paper concludes that while the evolution of China’s nuclear strategy bear some resemblance to Western patterns of nuclear evolution, the process has been largely unique; and that although Beijing will probably maintain an official commitment to minimal deterrence, China’s nuclear strategy has progressed well beyond its declaratory policy, and is continuing to change rapidly. Further papers in this study will examine China’s strategic nuclear forces, and investigate the principal drivers of China’s declaratory policy, nuclear strategy, and nuclear doctrine. The study will conclude with a comprehensive report discussing the apparent trajectory of China’s nuclear posture and the implications thereof for Canada and its allies, and suggesting directions for future research. Résumé …..... Ce document est le deuxième volet d’une étude plus large dont l’objet principal est de déterminer la trajectoire de la Chine en matière de politique des armes nucléaires, la stratégie, la capacité et la doctrine. S’appuyant sur le premier document, qui a fourni un point de repère pour l’analyse comparative sous la forme d’un aperçu de l’évolution de la stratégie nucléaire américaine depuis le fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, cet article discute les origines de la stratégie nucléaire de la Chine; son point de vue de la dissuasion; ce que certains éléments de sa politique déclaratoire révéler sur la stratégie nucléaire de Pékin, et où cette stratégie semble se tenir à l’heure actuelle. Le document conclut que, bien que l’évolution de la stratégie nucléaire de la Chine ont quelque ressemblance aux modèles occidentaux de l’évolution nucléaire, le processus a été en grande partie unique, et que, bien que Pékin va probablement maintenir un engagement officiel à la dissuasion minimale, la stratégie nucléaire de la Chine a progressé bien au-delà de ses politique déclaratoire, et continue d’évoluer rapidement. D’autres documents dans cette étude examinera la Chine forces nucléaires stratégiques, et d’enquêter sur les principaux moteurs de la politique déclaratoire de la Chine, la stratégie nucléaire, et la doctrine nucléaire. L’étude se terminera par un rapport complet discuter de la trajectoire apparente du dispositif nucléaire de la Chine et ses conséquences pour le Canada et ses alliés, et à suggérer des orientations pour la recherche future. DRDC CORA TM 2011-156 i This page intentionally left blank. ii DRDC CORA TM 2011-156 Executive summary &KLQD V evolving nuclear posture: Part II - The evolution of China's nuclear strategy D.A. Neill; DRDC CORA TM DRDC CORA TM 2011-156; Defence R&D Canada – CORA; September 2011. Introduction: This paper is the second part of a larger study the principal purpose of which is to determine the trajectory of China’s nuclear weapons policy, strategy, capability and doctrine. Building on the first paper, which provided a benchmark for comparative analysis in the form of an overview of the evolution of US nuclear strategy since the end of the Second World War, this paper examines the evolution of China’s nuclear strategy over the course of its half-century as a nuclear weapon state. The present study looks at the origins of China’s nuclear strategy in classical military and political philosophy; the influence of Mao and his successors; how China has, over the course of its nuclear tenure, gradually come to grips with the concept of deterrence; what certain elements of China’s declaratory nuclear policy (notably its no first-use policy, its approach to strategic arms control, and its stand on ballistic missile defences) reveal about its nuclear strategy; and where that strategy stands at present. Results: China’s nuclear strategy is grounded in classical military theory and informed by classical Chinese military philosophy to a greater degree than was the case in the US, and has been heavily influenced by Mao and his successors; by their ideological commitment to People’s War; and by unique adaptations of Marxist-Leninist military theory. China’s relationship with deterrence has been complex, ranging from disdain for nuclear “paper tigers” to an “existential” deterrent capability; then to a “minimal” deterrent based on a small number of inaccurate missiles carrying high-yield warheads; and finally, more recently, to what appears to be a “limited deterrent” based on some capacity for nuclear war-fighting. China has, for all intents and purposes, achieved a state of “essential equivalence” in nuclear capacity vis-à-vis potential adversaries, and as a consequence of its strategic force expansion and US strategic force reductions, is evolving towards parity. Elements of China’s declaratory policy (specifically, Beijing’s no first-use (NFU) pledge; its approach to strategic arms control; and its view of ballistic missile defences) demonstrate a significant gap between Beijing’s words and its deeds. China’s NFU pledge is undermined by elements of strategy and doctrine that appear likely to permit first-use under circumstances where it would be strategically advantageous for China to do so; its arms control efforts appear to be designed less as instruments of international altruism than as a means of minimizing both China’s strategic lacunae and the strategic advantages enjoyed by potential adversaries; and its strong opposition to missile defences as “destabilizing” is somewhat diluted by China’s recent tests of anti-satellite and anti-ballistic missile weapons. China’s nuclear evolution is more rapid and comprehensive than many observers appreciate. While China does not appear to be attempting to develop a genuine counterforce capability, Beijing is attempting to increase the number of options – including nuclear options – available to counter attempts by the US and others to interfere with realization of its strategic objectives within its area of interest and influence. Although it is not DRDC CORA TM 2011-156 iii clear at present where the trajectory of China’s nuclear posture may be leading, Beijing is clearly no longer satisfied with its long-standing posture of minimum deterrence – if indeed it ever was. For the sake of diplomacy, Beijing will likely continue to maintain a declaratory policy of “minimal deterrence”. Its nuclear posture, however, is already well beyond that, and is continuing to change. While aspects of the transformation are likely to resemble (at least in part) some aspects of America’s strategic nuclear evolution since 1945, the trajectory of China’s strategic nuclear evolution since its first detonation nearly fifty years ago has been comparatively unique to date, and likely will continue to be so. Significance and Future plans: With its enormous population and rapidly-expanding economy, and given present trends in US economic choices, China is widely expected to be one of the most important and influential states in the world over the coming decades. While China is and will almost certainly remain an important trading partner, however, China’s political regime is both antithetical and antipathetic to Western liberal democracy, and China’s regional (and perhaps eventually global) aspirations are a matter of some concern. The future trajectory of China’s nuclear posture is therefore a matter of critical interest to the Department of National Defence and, more broadly, to the Government of Canada. The next (third) paper in this study will examine and assess the current status of China’s strategic nuclear forces, looking both at extant systems and their capabilities and the programmes that are currently under way to update, upgrade or augment them. The fourth paper will attempt to discern the factors and influences that constitute the fundamental drivers of China’s declaratory policy, strategy and doctrine in the nuclear domain. All of the papers produced in the course of this study will be compiled in a capstone paper that will offer an assessment of the likely trajectory of China’s nuclear posture; propose recommendations for Canada and for allied states as they attempt to come to grips with the challenges and opportunities offered by China in the years ahead; and identify useful directions for further research into China’s strategic intentions and capabilities.