China's Evolving Nuclear Posture
China’s Evolving Nuclear Posture Part II – The Evolution of China’s Nuclear Strategy Donald A. Neill Strategic Analysis Section DRDC CORA TM 2011-156 September 2011 Defence R&D Canada Centre for Operational Research and Analysis China Team Sponsor: Strategic Joint Staff &KLQD VHYROYLQJQXFOHDUSRVWXUH Part II - The evolution of China's nuclear strategy D.A. Neill DRDC CORA The reported results, their interpretation, and any opinions expressed herein, remain those of the author and do not represent, or otherwise reflect, any official position of DND or the government of Canada. Defence R&D Canada – CORA Technical Memorandum DRDC CORA TM 2011-156 September 2011 Principal Author Original signed by D.A. Neill, Ph.D. D.A. Neill, Ph.D. Strategic Analyst Approved by Original signed by G. Smolynec, Ph.D. G. Smolynec, Ph.D. Section Head, Strategic Analysis Approved for release by Original signed by P. Comeau P. Comeau Chief Scientist This paper has been produced under Thrust 10a as part of the China/Asia ARP. Defence R&D Canada – Centre for Operational Research and Analysis (CORA) © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2011 © Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract …….. This paper is the second part of a larger study the principal purpose of which is to determine the trajectory of China’s nuclear weapons policy, strategy, capability and doctrine. Building on the first paper, which provided a benchmark for comparative analysis in the form of an overview of the evolution of US nuclear strategy since the end of the Second World War, this paper discusses the origins of China’s nuclear strategy; its view of deterrence; what certain elements of its declaratory policy reveal about Beijing’s nuclear strategy; and where that strategy appears to stand at present.
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