The Upcoming Elections Due to Be Held on October 23D Will Take Place in a Tense Situation Prompted by the Strongly Exacerbated R

The upcoming elections due to be held on October 23d will take place in a tense situation prompted by the strongly exacerbated relations between the governing majority and the opposition. The election campaign on the local level and especially on the national level will run under the sign of all parliamentary represented parties standing against the GERB Party, as all of them – with the only exception of the MRF – have nominated presidential candidates of their own.

The upcoming presidential election is extremely important for the GERB Party because it will actually reveal what the public assessment for their governance is. The victory of the GERB Party nominees will consolidate the positions of the government. An election defeat, however, could bring about an enhanced pressure on the part of the opposition and will consequently result in a fresh regrouping of the political parties in the country along the lines of support/opposition attitudes as regards the GERB Party.

Opinion poll surveys indicate that Rossen Plevneliev, the GERB Party presidential nominee, is currently the runner-up among all the rest of the presidential nominees. This, however, does not mean that the election outcome is a foregone conclusion. The major challenge Plevneliev is facing at present is his own capacity to build up the image of a nation-wide politician in the course of the short election campaign, as well as the image of a person capable of coping with the challenges of the presidential post.

The upcoming presidential election will also map out the prospects for development of the BSP over the next year and are especially important from an internal party point of view. The BSP presidential nominee, Ivailo Kalfin, is a person to whom the BSP electorate has not given an unequivocal assessment thus far. With the nomination of Stephan Danailov as Kalfin’s running mate on the BSP presidential ticket, however, the consolidation of the left-wing voters now seems to be an achievable task. A possible adverse result for the BSP and especially a defeat by Meglena Kuneva will exacerbate the party infightings and will give sufficient reasons for Stanishev’s opponents to surge up. 3/2011 1

Table of Contents

1. The Political Situation...... 2 2. Situation and Development of the Party System...... 4 2.1. Trends within the Right-Wing Political Environment...... 4 2.1.1. Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (The GERB Party)...... 4 2.1.2. The Attack Party...... 6 2.1.3. The Blue Coalition...... 8 2.1.4. The Order, Legality, and Justice Party (OLJ)...... 9 2.2. Trends within the Parliamentary Opposition...... 10 2.2.1. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)...... 10 2.2.2. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF)...... 11 3. Public Opinion...... 12 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts...... 13 2 3/2011

1. The Political Situation voters all over the country. In the course of the election campaign Kuneva also received The political situation during the third quar- the support of Simeon Saxe-Cobburg-Gotha ter of 2011 was determined mainly by the who declared that voters should cast their upcoming local and presidential elections. ballots for personalities rather than for parties The names of the major contenders for the and their cadres. presidential seat have been made public The presidential election became a yet now. The Central Election Commission (CEC) another occasion for reflection on the sub- has registered a total of 18 presidential can- ject matter concerning the prerogatives of didates with their vice-presidential running the Head of State and this is likely to become mates respectively. one of the topical themes of the current The highest chances for success are at- election campaign. Much like his predeces- tributed to the following candidates: Ros- sor Zhelyu Zhelev, President Georgi Parvanov sen Plevneliev, nominated by the GERB Par- announced his stance in favor of enhancing ty, Ivailo Kalfin, nominated by the BSP, and the presidential powers and prerogatives. In Meglena Kuneva, who is running the election his opinion, what is needed is a constitutional as an independent presidential candidate. In amendment, which makes it possible for the all likelihood, none of the candidates would President to summon referenda. Furthermore be able to declare victory at the first leg of the Parvanov thinks that the weight of the presi- election and the presidential vote would be dential veto should be enhanced as well. decided at a run-off. According to all opinion Yet again, the upcoming elections put the poll surveys, Rossen Plevneliev is currently the subject matter of vote purchasing back on runner-up and almost certainly he seems to the agenda. Investigating journalists revealed be one of the two participants in the run-off a number of schemes for organized vote pur- of the presidential election. For the time be- chasing in several regions of the country. This ing, Kalfin and Kuneva are running neck-to- indicates that these vicious practices will not neck, which makes the contest between the be discontinued during the election campaign two of them even keener. for the October local elections either, despite Kuneva continues to impose her image of the fact that such acts have now been crimi- a supra-party candidate and all of her rheto- nalized by an amendment to the Penal Code. ric is directed at criticizing the parties, despite For the first time ever during election time, a her long-standing bond with NMSP until re- joint unit between the Ministry of Interior, the cently. She has repeatedly stated that she was National Security Agency, and the Prosecu- not looking for any party support, although tor’s Office has been set up to the purpose of elections thus far have always been won by guaranteeing the legality of the elections and party candidates. Kuneva, however, relies on preventing vote purchasing. the extreme disillusionment of the Bulgarians There have been growing concerns about with all the parties and hopes that the strate- possible abuses at these dual – presidential gy she pursues in the capacity of an indepen- and local – elections. The opposition even dent candidate will bring her success. At this went further by voicing misgivings about pos- stage she is putting her stakes on meeting sible forgeries and pressure intended to rig 3/2011 3 the elections, which will be facilitated due to In the middle of July, Parliament turned the fact that the Minister of Interior, Tzvetan down the non-confidence vote against Bo- Tzvetanov, is heading the election headquar- rissov’s Cabinet, tabled by the BSP and the ters of the GERB Party. Concerns were also MRF. This time the non-confidence vote was expressed that the police could be used to po- demanded on account of the “failures” in the litical ends in order to manipulate the popular internal order policy of the country. With 143 vote. Representatives of the MRF even ap- votes against, 91 votes in favor, and 1 absten- pealed for inviting foreign observers to moni- tion, the third non-confidence vote failed to tor the elections. oust the incumbent government. Apart from The BSP leader, Sergei Stanishev, quali- the GERB Party MPs, the rest of the votes in fied the functioning of the municipal election support of the government came from the commissions as lacking transparency. He also Attack Party and 12 independent Members of added that they performed in contradiction Parliament. The opposition nonetheless man- to the provisions of the Election Code. In his aged to voice its criticism from the plenary opinion, the strings of the municipal election rostrum by tearing apart the government’s commissions are pulled by the local GERB policy in the areas of: internal security and Party leaderships, to whom the commissions public order, the postponed accession to the are actually subordinated. According to Stan- Schengen Area, the police violence, and the ishev, constant obstacles are being raised to infringement of basic human rights. the registration of opposition party slates, as The latest European Commission Re- well as to the registration of candidates for port under the Cooperation and Verification mayors, who are either independent or repre- Mechanism on the country’s progress with the sent other political forces. judicial reform, the combat against corrup- The Blue Coalition also accused the gov- tion and organized crime was issued in July. erning party of making attempts to influence Yet again, the findings it makes stress upon the vote. The occasion prompting these ac- the lack of convincing results in the area of cusations was the decision of the Municipal combating corruption in the higher corridors Election Commissions in the towns of Mon- of power and the lack of transparency and tana and Dobrich, where the registration of reliability in the judiciary appointments. The the Blue Coalition candidates was rejected. report expresses serious concerns about the In the town of Pleven, the incumbent mayor, accountability of the judiciary and respectively Naiden Zelenogorsly, who belongs to the recommends that mechanisms be set up to Blue Coalition, was forced to run the elec- improve the combat against organized crime. tion with the registration of Bulgarian New Subject to criticism was also the practice of Democracy (BND). The reason for such a reg- the Ministry of Interior to receive donations istration is that without even warning him by natural persons and legal entities. his opponents had registered a “Pro Zeleno- Following the criticism in the European gorsky” coalition at the municipal election Commission Report about the donations commission. Zelenogorsky declared that he made to the Ministry of Interior, a decision would be seeking to defend his rights at the was made to discontinue this practice. The Strasbourg Human Rights Court. possibility for municipalities to make such do- 4 3/2011

nations, however, remains open. The opposi- 2. Situation and Development tion said that this possibility would be an indi- of the Party System rect way for natural persons and legal entities to continue funding the police. The development of the party system in the Despite the criticism of the European country will depend to a significant extent Commission concerning the appointments in on the outcome of the presidential and local the judiciary, Parliament appointed question- elections. The restructuring of relationships able figures such as Kiril Gogov and Nestor between the major political forces is currently Nestorov members of the Supreme Judicial underway and the new alliances and blocs Council by virtue of the votes of the GERB formed among the parties will have much Party and the Attack Party MPs. clearer outlines after the elections. Even though Bulgaria had fulfilled the technical criteria for joining the Schengen 2.1. Trends within the Right-Wing Area, Bulgaria’s problems with corruption Political Environment prompted the Netherlands and Finland to impose a veto on the country’s accession to The situation in the right-wing political envi- Schengen. The postponement of Bulgaria’s ronment is becoming increasingly more dy- membership in the Schengen Area gave rise namic. The forthcoming elections turned the to mutual verbal attacks and accusations be- right-wing parties into rivals not only on the tween the governing majority and the opposi- national, but on the local level as well. A mation and it is highly likely that this postpone- jor change can be forecast to occur shortly ment will be further used in the course of the in the Blue Coalition, the future of which is election campaign. rather dubious, now that the relations be- The BSP MP, Roumen Petkov, declared tween the UDF and DSB are in quite an exac- that what the postponement of Bulgaria’s acerbated state. cession to the Schengen Area signified was first and foremost the total failure of Bulgar- 2.1.1. Citizens for European Development ian diplomacy and the person accountable for of Bulgaria (The GERB Party) this was the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nick- The nomination of Rossen Plevneliev as pres- olay Mladenov. Meglena Kuneva appealed to idential candidate of the GERB Party seems the government to take the political respon- logical with a view to the development of sibility for this fact and demanded that the the political situation over the past months. respective resignations be duly handed in. Plevneliev is the person enjoying the highest Nickolay Mladenov responded to this criti- confidence rating among all the ministers in cism with the explanation that the postponed the Cabinet and the party hopes that this fact accession was “extremely unjust”. In his opin- will secure the electoral success of their can- ion it was mainly due to the domestic political didate. Before he was appointed to the post situation in both the Netherlands and Finland, of Minister of Regional Development and as well as to work poorly done by the previ- Public Works, Plevneliev was in the construc- ous governments. tion business both in Bulgaria and Germany. In 2007 he was elected to sit on the Board of 3/2011 5

Directors of the Confederation of Employers sion connected with the Sofia Business Park. and Industrialists in Bulgaria. Since 2008 he At that time Plevneliev was the representative has been member of the Board of Directors of the German company Lindner, which was of the American Chamber of Commerce. entrusted with the construction of the said Before joining Boiko Borissov’s government, business park. The information voiced by Tz- Plevneliev has never been engaged with poli- vetanov raised the question why neither he, tics. Even in his capacity of a minister he has nor Plevneliev ever informed the law enforce- always repeated that he is not a politician ment authorities about the demanded bribe. but an expert who intimately knows the con- The Prosecutor’s Office said that they would struction business. take the initiative to investigate this case. The nomination for Plevneliev’s running The subject matter was immediately taken mate on the GERB Party presidential ticket up by the BSP, representatives of which said is Margarita Popova, the incumbent Minister that incumbent municipal councilors from the of Justice. GERB Party were involved in the case. The BSP Plevneliev declared that in the capacity of candidate for Sofia City Mayor, Georgi Kadi- the country’s President he would do his best ev, disclosed the names of the three and de- to attract foreign investments to the country, clared that Plevneliev himself had mentioned using to this end the format of the Presiden- these names to Peter Kurumbashev, incum- tial Council for Economic Policy. Plevneliev bent BSP MP, who at that time was municipal pointed out that in order for this to happen, councilor at the Sofia City Municipality. The however, what the country needed was a names announced by Kadiev belong to the well functioning judicial system. What Plev- following municipal councilors: Orlin Ivanov, neliev mentioned next was the need for im- Deputy Chairman of the Sofia City Municipal provement of the administrative services by Council, Radoslav Toshev, and the incumbent setting up an effective e-government. In his Sofia District Governor, Danail Kirilov. The words, the e-government is one of the suc- three of them denied the disclosed informa- cessful instruments conducive to curbing cor- tion and said they would sue Kadiev for libel. ruption in the lower echelons of civil servants Plevneliev said that nobody had asked him working at the governmental institutions and personally to provide such a bribe and that the country’s administration at large. Accord- he had heard about this from third persons. ing to Plevneliev, should all these measures be Tzvetanov never gave a clear answer about actually applied, the business climate in the the case, which he was the first to mention, country would substantially improve. and the only thing he said was that what he Shortly after Plevneliev’s nomination was did was a mistake. Boiko Borissov accused the made public, his name was involved in a row. opposition of fabricating compromising infor- What prompted it was a public statement mation, but qualified Tzvetanov’s statement made by Tzvetan Tzvetanov, head of the GERB as a blunder at the same time. The major election headquarters, that in 2007 three question to which a clear answer was never then municipal councilors sitting at the Sofia given is why the three of the alleged perpe- City Municipal Council demanded to receive trators were given the opportunity to make a EUR 500 thousand from Plevneliev for a deci- further career within the GERB Party, if infor- 6 3/2011

mation about such a case was available to top Kiril Yordanov, who has been mayor of this party officials well before the GERB Party won city for several terms of office now and thus the 2007 local elections in Sofia and the 2009 far has always been supported by the BSP. general election. In the town of Bourgas, the incumbent The GERB Party announced two other mayor, Dimitar Nickolov, elected from the questionable nominations for local election GERB Party slate, has the highest chances for candidates. In the town of Yambol, the party scoring a victory. The local structure of the gave its support to its member and incum- Blue Coalition also supports his candidature. bent mayor, Georgi Slavov, who has two GERB has nominated some of its MPs to convictions from a first instance law-court. run in the mayorship race. In the town of Ve- Slavov has appealed the convictions and this lingrad, candidate mayor is the GERB MP An- gives him the right to run the elections once gel Daskalov, who took part in the previous again. The situation in the town of Sliven local elections as an independent candidate is quite similar as there the GERB Party has for mayor. Another GERB MP, Ivan Alelxiev, given its support to the incumbent mayor, is candidate mayor of the town of Pomo- Yordan Lechkov, who was subsequently con- rie. In the town of Gotze Delchev, the GERB victed to a three-year suspended sentence Party candidate for the mayor’s seat is MP by the first instance law-court for abuse of Georgi Andonov, and his colleague Svetomir office in favor of third parties, whereby the Mikhailov will run for mayor in the town of damages for the municipal budget amount Balchik. The candidate of GERB at the may- to more than BGN 670 thousand. orship race in the town of Stara Zagora is The GERB Party declared its intentions to Zhivko Todorov. make a breakthrough in the ethnically mixed Candidates nominated by the GERB Party regions of the country, which thus far have al- to run the mayorship race can also be found ways been strongholds of the MRF. This claim among the incumbent district governors, is likely to increase the tension between the such as the District Governor of Rousse, Pla- MRF and GERB not only on the local, but on men Stoilov, the District Governor of Razgrad, the national level as well. Valentin Vassilev, and the District Governor of One of the declared goals of the GERB Shoumen, Dimitar Alexandrov. Party at these local elections is to win the mayorship race in the three largest cities of 2.1.2. The Attack Party the country, namely: Sofia, Plovdiv, and Var- At the beginning of July, a yet another Mem- na. Yordanka Fandakova, the incumbent So- ber of Parliament left the parliamentary fac- fia City Mayor, was the expected GERB nomi- tion of the Attack Party. MP Stoyan Ivanov nee for a second term of office. In Plovdiv, the declared that by this act he wanted to dif- nominee of the party is the incumbent district ferentiate himself from the policy pursued by governor, Ivan Todev, who will run against the party leader, Volen Siderov. Earlier, three the incumbent Mayor, Slavcho Atanassov, to other Attack Party MPs had left the Attack whom the GERB Party had given its support at parliamentary faction, namely: Valentin Nick- the previous local elections. In Varna the sup- olov, Kiril Goumnerov, and Ognyan Penchev. port of GERB goes to the incumbent Mayor, The three of them had also differentiated 3/2011 7 themselves from the way the party acted at be terminated, then the collapse of the GERB the time of the clashes between nationalists Party will be guaranteed in the way this hap- and Moslems in front of the “Banya Bashi” pened to NMSP. Sofia City Mosque. At the same time, however, the Attack Over the quarter under observation, the Party gave its unreserved support to the Cabi- Attack Party made some attempts to differ- net at the parliamentary debate on account entiate itself from the policy of the govern- of the non-confidence vote in July. ing majority. The impression, which these During his election campaign, Volen Sid- attempts have left in observers, however, is erov emphasized on nationalism as the only that they are only part and parcel of the elec- doctrine capable of guaranteeing that the tion tactic of the party, while Attack’s genuine country is governed in the interest of the support for the GERB Party remains intact. people. In his opinion, people in Bulgaria look From the parliamentary rostrum Volen at nationalism with distrust, but practice has Siderov read a declaration, the purpose of shown that such pro-nationalist attitudes which was to declare that the Attack Party are gaining momentum in Europe, because was going into opposition. Sideriov said that people there want to see more sovereignty his party had given its support to Boiko Boriss- and nationalism. While what is observed in ov’s government with the idea for the Attack modern Europe today is a prevalence of at- “to be a well-wishing partner” to the GERB titudes against the opening of the continent Party, but the good intention were not recip- for refugees and emigrants, Bulgaria is speak- rocated. Siderov is of the opinion that GERB’s ing about neo-liberalism, about smaller gov- ‘governance is threatened by failure as long ernment and a market economy, which – in as it continues to disregard the national inter- Siderov’s opinion – “has been turned into a ests of the country. criminal plunder” of the country’s wealth. In the opinion of the Attack Party leader, This is the reason why the Attack Party will the economic situation in Bulgaria is deterio- insist on bigger government and more state rating and a large portion of the population interference in the interest of the people. Sid- is on the verge of poverty. He pointed out erov launched once again his thesis about the that Bulgaria is a social country according to need for the country to regain the state own- its Constitution, which means that it should ership over major sectors of the economy, not be divided into the stratum of the nu- such as the energy sector, etc. merous poor and the stratum of the few rich, An event, which occurred in the last but its government should rather maintain a week of September, is likely to modify the balance between incomes and a stable stan- election campaign of the Attack Party. In dard of living for all Bulgarians. According to the village of Katunitza (Plovdiv District) – Siderov, should the policy GERB is currently the seat of the notorious Roma leader Kiril pursuing fail to change, should the taxation Rashkov, nick-named Tzar Kiro, a young system fail to begin functioning for the citi- Bulgarian boy was overrun by a van full of zens rather than for big business, should the Roma people. The grandson of Kiril Rashkov agreements with the foreign monopolies, was involved in the incident. This prompted which are draining Bulgarian money, fail to clashes and riots in the village, as well as an- 8 3/2011

gry protest rallies and actions in many towns run for mayor, this will split and dissipate the of the country. This event will most probably right-wing vote. In practice, the UDF failed to be used by Volen Siderov in his election cam- make any clear comment on the “Sofiansky” paign to the purpose of gaining political divi- case, although Proshko Proshkov is in fact the dends. Siderov appealed to his opponents in candidate of the UDF as well, both by virtue the presidential race to join him in a debate of the agreement signed with DSB and as a on the subject of Roma crime and the mea- result of the primaries, which the two parties sures needed to solve the issue. voluntarily held together. As a result, DSB refused to participate at 2.1.3. The Blue Coalition the candidate-presidential registration of Rou- On the eve of the presidential and local elec- men Christov with the Central Election Com- tions, the relations between the UDF and DSB mission (CEC). This is the reason why a new palpably exacerbated. Although they deter- coalition had to be registered, namely: the mined their presidential nominee at primary Union of Right-Wing Forces. Several smaller elections, the UDF and DSB will not run the right-wing formations entered this coalition presidential election in the format of a Blue headed by the UDF. Among its members are Coalition. Things escalated that far after the the parties from the ADF, the Bulgarian Dem- UDF started negotiations with the newly es- ocratic Forum, and the Allied Agrarians, the tablished ADF (Allied Democratic Forces), leader of which is Petya Stavreva, the Radical which encompasses the Radicals Union of Democratic Party, the Bulgarian Social Demo- Evgeny Bakardjiev, the Georgyovden Move- cratic Party, and Bulgarian New Democracy. ment of Lyuben Dillov, the Union of Free DSB representatives declared that they Democrats (UFD) of Stephan Sofiansky, and would honor their agreement with the UDF, the Democratic Party of Alexander Pramatar- they would not register a candidate of their sky. The negotiations were aimed at securing own to run at the presidential election, and support for the UDF presidential candidate, would give their support to Roumen Christov. Roumen Christov. The newly established coalition came up DSB accused the UDF of infringing the with a declaration that the presidential election preliminary agreements signed between the is an ideal opportunity for regaining the genu- two parties and insisted that if the format of ine right-wing environment in Bulgarian poli- the coalition set up to run at the presiden- tics. Stephan Sofiansky launched accusations tial elections truly gets enlarged, then the at the DSB leader, Ivan Kostov, in the sense ADF must withdraw Stephan Sofiansky as that the conduct of the latter was dividing the candidate for Sofia City mayor and back up Right Wing in Bulgaria for a yet another time. Proshko Proshkov instead, who won the can- Sofiansky, however, failed to mention the rea- didate mayor nomination at the primaries of son why he himself refused to withdraw his the Blue Coalition in Sofia. The ADF refused own candidature for Sofia City mayor. to comply with this demand. In the opinion The UDF leader, Martin Dimitrov, qualified of DSB, the fact that Sofiansky is running for the right-wing coalition set up for the presi- Sofia City mayor is actually directed against dential election as an unprecedented unifica- Proshko Proshkov, because if the two of them tion of the authentic Right Wing in Bulgaria. 3/2011 9

The objective analysis, however, shows that the Central Election Commission was due to in the new coalition format the UDF will have expire that the leaderships of the Sofia City partner parties of an extremely limited elec- organizations of the two parties reached a toral potential and they will hardly contribute consensus and this happened only after the to any higher outcome for Roumen Christov UDF conceded to accept the demands of DSB. at the presidential election. At the same time, the DSB voters are hardly likely to give support 2.1.4. The Order, Legality, to Roumen Christov, despite the declarations and Justice Party (OLJ) made by the DSB party leadership. Having nominated Atanas Semov for its presi- Emanuil Yordanov from the UDF was dential candidate, the Order, Legality, and nominated as running mate on the presiden- Justice Party nominated a woman as a run- tial ticket of Roumen Christov. Emanuil Yor- ning mate of Semov’s on the OLJ presidential danov is former Minister of Interior in Ivan ticket. She is Polya Stancheva, former Director Kostov’s Cabinet. For the last few years, Yor- of the Bulgarian National Radio and municipal danov had chosen to distance himself from councilor in Sofia elected on the GERB party active politics. slate. Stancheva is not a GERB Party member, On the whole, the situation around the even though her name was included on the UDF and DSB will affect the performance of GERB municipal councilor slate. Currently, the Blue Coalition at the local elections. The Stancheva is one of the critics of the GERB relations between the two parties remain Party and its governance. Stancheva said that tense in many regions of the country. In a she accepted the OLJ nomination because she number of regional centers, the UDF and DSB was convinced that Bulgaria needed both a have given support to different candidates for new Constitution and a change in the gov- mayors and there they will not draft any joint ernance model, in which the country is cur- party slates for municipal councilors. In some rently run. In her opinion, the GERB Party has other towns, such as Varna for instance, the not discontinued the inadmissible corruption tension between the two parties is also quite practices and the Sofia City Municipality can serious. All this could contribute to an elec- be held as a typical case in point illustrating tion campaign of low effectiveness and con- the dire situation. sequently – to a low election outcome. Surprisingly, the OLJ party slate of the The distribution of municipal councilor candidates for Sofia City municipal council- seats and the drafting of the party slate of ors was topped by Martin Zaimov, who was the Blue Coalition in Sofia also brought about candidate for Sofia City mayor, nominated by some tension between the two parties. DSB DSB and the UDF at the previous local elec- insisted that the distribution of seats on the tions, and who is currently municipal coun- individual slates should correspond to the re- cilor in the capital city. The OLJ said that they sults from the mayoral primaries held in So- would back up the candidature of Proshko fia, which Ivan Kostov’s party won. The UDF Proshkov for Sofia City mayor, and Martin upheld the idea of party representation on a Zaimov shared that this support namely was parity basis. It was only on the last day be- the reason why he accepted the OLJ proposal fore the deadline for registering the slates at to top their municipal councilor party slate. 10 3/2011

At the National OLJ Conference held in presidential nominee – Ivailo Kalfin. He is an the middle of September, the party leader, incumbent Member of the European Parlia- Yane Yanev, for a yet another time declared ment and also former Deputy Prime Minister that the major objective of the party was the and Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Cabi- adoption of a new Constitution. The OLJ net of Sergei Stanishev (2005-2009). Kalfin has put forward a number of constitutional received the approval of nearly 60 percent amendments, the majority of which are of of the members of the BSP National Council. a populist orientation. Among the amend- At the ballot he received 72 votes in favor, ments the party will work for are: decreasing while the other major contender for the party the number of MPs from their current num- nomination – Yanaki Stoilov – received only ber of 240 to 100; removal of MP immunity 35 votes in favor. and privileges; and setting up a mechanism Kalfin said that the debate for the upcom- for their recall. The OLJ also insists that judges ing presidential election should be focused on and prosecutors should also be deprived of the functions of the Head of State and on the immunity in this country. question about what he could contribute to The OLJ project envisages the implemen- the development of society. Kalfin expressed tation of reforms in the judiciary as well, to his concern that if the country’s governance the purpose of increasing the effectiveness continues in the style imposed by the GERB and independence of the system. Thus for in- Party of “suppressing the independence of stance, one of the envisaged amendments is institutions”, there is a danger for the presi- to remove the political quota in the Supreme dential institution “to be crushed and turned Judicial Council. The OJL will also work for into a second-rate institution”. providing greater powers to the President, Kalfin is of the opinion that the presi- such as legislative initiative, a strong presiden- dential powers do not need to be enlarged. tial veto, and the right to summon referenda. He thinks that “the future president must be looking for national agreement on all 2.2. Trends within the the long-term issues and their fundamental Parliamentary Opposition frameworks, which should not be affected by the changing majorities coming into of- The relations between the BSP and the fice. The President should be seen as a per- MRF will depend predominantly on the fact son who seeks consensus on the serious whether the MRF will actually back up Ivailo issues existing between the major political Kalfin and Stephan Danailov at the presi- forces, but what is extremely important is for dential election. The support of the MRF is the President to seek for the opinion of civic important for the BSP, because this support society, either by means of a referendum, or precisely could tip the balance in favor of the by all other possible means.” BSP presidential ticket. The attitude towards Kalfin within the BSP is not unequivocal. In 1997 he left the par- 2.2.1. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) ty and joined the Bulgarian Euroleft headed After a lengthy process of internal party by Alexander Tomov. Even now he is not a nominations, the BSP finally announced its member of the BSP. This is the reason why 3/2011 11 the rock-bottom electorate of the BSP does is skeptically minded with respect to Parva- not feel any special sympathies for him. Apart nov’s intention to return to the party and from this, Kalfin took part in the establish- sees this statement as a claim on his part ment of the ABC presidential project initiated to regain the leadership post. At the same by Georgi Parvanov, which failed to get the time, the group around Roumen Petkov, approval of certain groups within the BSP. who is close to the President, hopes to re- This is precisely the reason why the BSP gain its own positions in the party. had concerns that Kalfin would prove inca- It is not by chance that Parvanov an- pable of rallying the entire electorate of the nounced his intentions publicly on the eve Left Wing and that this fact might even pre- of the elections. The establishment of the vent him from reaching the run-off. The latest “presidential” ABC Movement and the sus- opinion poll surveys indicate that the distance picions that after the end of his term of of- between him and Meglena Kuneva is very fice he was about to set up a new party of short indeed. his own made the supporters of the Left And this precisely became the reason why Wing feel uncomfortable hesitations. With Stephan Danailov was nominated Kalfin’s his claim for return to the BSP Parvanov ac- running mate. The former Minister of Culture tually consolidated the left-wing electorate in Stanishev’s Cabinet was one of the internal just in time for the elections. BSP nominations for the presidential post, but at that time Danailov categorically refused to 2.2.2. The Movement for Rights run for President. Stephan Danailov is one of and Freedoms (MRF) the most popular Bulgarian actors and one of The fact that the MRF did not nominate a the emblematic figures in the BSP. His nomi- presidential candidate for the upcoming elec- nation at this stage aims at the consolidation tion was not unexpected. The party has not of the entire Left Wing electorate. publicly announced yet whether it will be The past quarter clarified several ques- backing up one of the running candidates. tion marks surrounding the political future The MRF leadership announced that the lo- of President Parvanov after the end of his cal elections are the major priority for them term of office in the capacity of Head of and the presidential election was not on top State. Parvanov himself publicly announced of their agenda. his intention to return to the BSP. The Presi- In Sofia, the MRF will run the local elec- dent also mentioned that he was not going tions together with “the business party” of to take up the leadership post in the party Christo Kovachky, namely the LEADER Party. once again, nor did he intend to run for Par- The two parties have registered a coalition liament. What he wanted to do instead was under the name of “Liberal Alliance for So- to help the BSP in its efforts to consolidate fia” with the Municipal Election Commission. the Left Wing in Bulgaria. As early as the previous general election ob- What Parvanov’s return to the BSP means servers commented on the close relationship is that infighting could occur between the between the two formations and on the fact various groups and factions within the par- that it was actually the MRF that stood be- ty. The circle around the leader Stanishev hind the idea about the establishment of the 12 3/2011

LEADER Party. By means of this new alliance clared that their cooperation would actually now, the MRF is making a first attempt to se- be a long-term project, the purpose of which cure its own representation in the Sofia City was to create a new right-wing alternative in Municipal Council. Bulgaria. The two of them announced that In the majority of the ethnically mixed re- they would register UPP party slates in all the gions of the country, The MRF has tradition- 264 municipalities of the country, and there ally nominated candidates for mayors from would also be individual municipalities where its own party. In certain regions of the coun- they would give support to other right-wing try, the MRF is backing up the candidates for candidates for mayors. mayors of the Left Wing. Thus for instance, in Varna the MRF has given its support to 3. Public Opinion the candidate mayor nominated by the BSP – Borislav Goutzanov. In the second largest The opinion poll survey held between the 8th city of the country – Plovdiv, the MRF made and 15th of September by the Alpha Research its own nomination for a candidate mayor – Agency indicates that the presidential can- the MP from the MRF parliamentary faction didate of the GERB Party, Rossen Plevneliev, Petya Raeva. gets the largest share of support at this stage. The MRF also arrived at an agreement for Out of all the respondents who had declared cooperation with Stephan Sofiansky and Evg- that they would go to the polls, 38.5 percent eny Bakardjiev from the newly established said they would cast their ballots for the GERB Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). In some re- candidate, Rossen Plevneliev. Second ranking gions of the country the two formations will after him comes the presidential candidate of run the local elections with joint candidates. the Left Wing, Ivailo Kalfin, with 23.5 percent It is even possible for certain structures of of the votes, and third ranking comes the in- the MRF to give their support to the presi- dependent presidential candidate Meglena dential candidate Roumen Christov in some Kuneva, who gets 18.4 percent of the votes. regions of the country due to the fact that The rest of the presidential candidates the presidential candidate of the Right Wing hardly have a chance to go to the run-off. is very close with the Deputy Chairman of Thus for instance, the leader of the Attack the MRF, Christo Bisserov. Party, Volen Siderov, and the UDF presidential The MRF is keeping a close eye on the lo- candidate, Roumen Christov, get about a 4 cal elections and this heightened attention percent support. The number of respondents can be explained with the concerns within willing to cast their ballot for the presidential certain circles of the party that an outflow of candidate of the OLJ Party, Atanas Semov, votes is possible due to the activity of Kas- amounts to 2.5 percent, and the number sim Dahl and Korman Ismailov. An announce- of those ready to give their support to the ment was made in the middle of August that VMRO presidential candidate, Krassimir Kara- Kassim Dahl had laid the foundations for a kachanov, is 2.2 percent. close cooperation with the United People’s During the quoted opinion poll survey, Party (UPP) of Maria Kapon for the presiden- 59 percent of the respondents have ex- tial and local elections. Dahl and Kapon de- pressed the intention to cast their ballots at 3/2011 13 the presidential election, and 62 percent in- Borissov continues to enjoy the highest ap- dicated their intention to cast a ballot at the proval rating of 30 percent out of all the other local elections. leaders of parliamentary represented parties. The opinion poll survey of the Alpha Re- Second ranking comes the BSP leader, Sergei search Agency indicates that the electoral po- Stanishev, who enjoys the approval of 16 per- tential of Rossen Plevneliev comes quite close cent of the voters. The confidence rating of to the profile of the GERB Party supporters. the rest of the party leaders is within the limits What merits mention, however, is the fact of 6 – 7 percent. that Plevneliev gets the support of the intel- Since the beginning of the year, there has lectuals and the free-lancers, and these are been no change in the approval rating of Pres- strata of the population where the governing ident Georgi Parvanov, having in mind that he majority has actually been losing ground of is at the end of his second presidential term of late. Besides, Plevneliev is also attracting peo- office. He gets the confidence of 28 percent ple who determine themselves as right-wing of the Bulgarian citizens, while the number of supporters, whereas the GERB Party is much those who disapprove of him amounts to 27 more of a centrist orientation. percent. The other 45 percent of the respon- To a large extent, the support measured dents have given him a neutral assessment. for Ivailo Kalfin coincides with the Left Wing The attitude towards the government electorate. The nomination of Stephan Dan- continues to be dominated by negative as- ailov as the presidential running mate is ex- sessments: its disapproval rating is 36 percent pected to rally and further consolidate the against a 20 percent approval. This indicates left-wing voters. that there has been no significant change in The most varied but also the most unde- the approval/disapproval rating of the gov- termined is the support measured for Megle- ernment in comparison with the beginning of na Kuneva. About 14 percent of her support- the summer season. ers determine themselves as centrists, 19 percent – as left-wingers, and 24 percent – as 4. Major Conclusions and Forecasts right-wingers. The opinion poll survey of the Alpha Re- 1. The upcoming elections will be held in a search Agency indicates that the confidence tense situation because of the strongly ex- rating of the Bulgarian Parliament has dropped acerbated relations between the governing to an unprecedented low level: only 5 percent majority and the opposition. The election of the Bulgarians have given a positive assess- campaign at the national level will run un- ment to the work of the National Assembly. der the sign of all parliamentary represented According to the records the Agency has, this parties standing against the GERB Party, as is the lowest point in the parliamentary confi- all of them – with the only exception of the dence rating, which has been regularly mea- MRF – have nominated presidential candi- sured in the past 15 years. dates of their own. The confidence rating of the major politi- The fact that the local and presidential cal parties in the country and their leaders also elections will be held on the same date is like- remains at a low level. Prime Minister Boiko ly to increase the voter turn-out. 14 3/2011

Suspicions for possible abuses intended – Meglena Kuneva and Ivailo Kalfin. It is the to rig the elections, as well as the vote pur- election campaign precisely that will be the chasing practice, will accompany the election major factor capable of tipping up the scales campaign. Currently there are no effective in one or another direction. mechanisms in place designed to get the na- The major objective of the GERB Party at tion rid of this extremely negative phenom- the local elections is to win the cities and larg- enon. Besides, the political will capable of er towns in the country, as well as the greater countering it is insufficient. part of the regional centers. In the capital 2. The presidential election is extremely city, Yordanka Fandakova is the favorite for important for the GERB Party, because it will the mayor’s seat, but it is highly likely for the actually reveal what the public assessment for GERB Party to lose its majority in the Sofia their governance is. The victory of the GERB City Municipal Council. Party nominees will consolidate the positions 3. In comparison with the previous local of the government. An election defeat, how- elections, the Attack Party is certain to lose its ever, could bring about an enhanced pres- current positions. The rows surrounding the sure on the part of the opposition and will party and the fact that entire local party struc- consequently result in a new regrouping of tures have now left it in a number of towns the political parties in the country along the throughout the country will have an inevita- lines of support/opposition attitudes as re- ble effect on the local elections outcome. In gards the GERB Party. the town of Bourgas, where the Attack Party Opinion poll surveys indicate that Ros- scored some of its highest election results at sen Plevneliev, the GERB Party presidential the previous local elections due to the support nominee, is currently the runner-up among of the SKAT television channel and its owner, all the rest of the presidential nominees. Valeri Simeonov, now Attack is likely to suffer This, however, does not mean that the elec- a defeat. Simeonov set up a political party of tion outcome is a foregone conclusion. The his own, which – in all likelihood – is about to major challenge Plevneliev is facing at pres- win a more numerous political representation ent is his own capacity to build up the im- at the Bourgas Municipal Council than the At- age of a nation-wide politician in the course tack Party can. of the short month-long election campaign, Volen Siderov will also be far from the building up the image of a person capable of outcome he scored at the previous presiden- coping with the challenges of the presidential election when he got to the run-off elec- tial post at the same time. Plevneliev has no tion. The support he is receiving in this presi- political experience, he has always qualified dential election campaign does not exceed 3 himself as an expert whose knowledge and to 4 percent. experience is connected mainly with the con- On the eve of the elections, the Attack struction business. This is the reason why he Party has been increasingly closing itself needs some really serious preparation in the within the circle surrounding the party leader, course of the campaign and especially at the Volen Siderov, and proves incapable of find- election debates, where he will have to face ing a way to reverse the declining support for his far better politically prepared opponents the party. Despite the hesitant attempts for 3/2011 15 emancipation from the GERB Party and the ing from Ivan Kostov. It is possible for talks in criticism launched at the government over the this vein to have already started. past few months, the Attack Party continues 5. The OLJ is making attempts to estab- to support GERB, which in practice defaces lish closer relations with the right-wing for- the Attack from a political point of view. mations in the country, which will help its 4. The agreements, which the UDF has leadership to go out of the political isolation signed with the newly established Allied it has relapsed into since the beginning of Democratic Forces (ADF), strongly exacer- the year. The support for Proshko Proshkov bated the relations within the Blue Coali- at the mayoral elections, which the OLJ has tion. Martin Dimitrov’s decision to turn for pledged, should be regarded in precisely such electoral back-up to Stephan Sofiansky and a perspective. The goal of the party at the up- Evgeny Bakardjiev does not seem justified, coming elections is to stabilize its shattered despite the declared aspirations behind positions. The prospects for development of these agreements, namely to obtain wider the OLJ at this stage, however, are rather ad- support at the elections and to facilitate the verse. Yane Yanev’s party is still incapable of unification of the Right Wing. The electoral shedding off the image, which it has painted potential of the parties, which set up the of itself due to the close relationship it used to new ADF, is insignificant and will hardly maintain with Alexei Petrov. contribute to the better performance of the 6. The upcoming presidential election UDF presidential candidate, Roumen Chris- will map out the prospects for development tov. On the contrary, this act on the part of the BSP over the next year and are espe- of the UDF is likely to deprive the voters of cially important from an internal party point DSB of the legitimate motive to give their of view. The BSP presidential nominee, Ivailo support to Roumen Christov. Kalfin, is a person to whom the BSP electorate What is taking place within the Blue Co- has not given an unequivocal assessment thus alition seems to have a deeper purpose and far. With the nomination of Stephan Danailov an ulterior motive, namely – the isolation of as Kalfin’s running mate on the BSP presiden- DSB and Ivan Kostov in particular. The GERB tial ticket, however, the consolidation of the Party will benefit most from such a develop- left-wing voters now seems to be an achiev- ment, because over the past months Kostov able task. A possible adverse result for the BSP has been one of the loudest critics of Boiko will exacerbate the party infightings and will Borissov and his governance. Several times give sufficient reasons for Stanishev’s oppo- over the past months, both Tzvetan Tzveta- nents to surge up. President Parvanov’s inten- nov and Boiko Borissov have demonstrated tion to return to the BSP after the end of his a friendly attitude to the UDF and its leader, term of office in the capacity of Head of State Martin Dimitrov, verbally attacking Ivan Kos- will certainly bring about a shift in the layers tov at the same time. It cannot be ruled out within the BSP and is likely to result in a fresh for an agreement for future cooperation to regrouping of forces within the party. A pos- have been outlined between the UDF and the sible election defeat by the GERB Party presi- GERB Party, whereby the price the UDF will dential candidate Rossen Plevneliev would have to pay for such cooperation is its distanc- hardly have any dramatic consequences for 16 3/2011

the BSP. But should Meglena Kuneva make it cooperation of the LEADER Party in the capi- to the run-off instead of Kalfin, then this will tal city Sofia, where the two parties will run certainly bring about serious consequences the local elections on a joint party slate. The and is likely to result in a replacement of the possibility for Kassim Dahl to split votes away party leadership. from the MRF at present seems to be infini- 7. Being predominantly a regional party, tesimal. Nevertheless, the MRF is attentively the priority for the MRF are the local elec- monitoring the new alliance set up between tions, because it is the MRF local structures Kassim Dahl and Maria Kapon. that form the very foundations of the party. The MRF has not disclosed yet which They are the principal mechanism through presidential candidate it will support at the which the party controls its electorate, build- first leg of the election, but there are obvious ing at the same time a solid network of pa- signs that the major objective of the party is tronage structures. The MRF will not only try to prevent Plevneliev and the GERB Party from to preserve its current positions in the ethni- winning this election. This is the reason why cally mixed regions, but will also direct its as- the MRF is likely to give its support to that pirations towards expanding its influence. It candidate in the presidential contest who will is in this connection that the MRF sought the be facing Plevneliev at the possible run-off.

Georgi Karasimeonov, Professor, Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, is Director of the Insti- tute for Political and Legal Studies and Editor- in-Chief of the Political Studies academic peri- odical. From 1991 to 1998 he was Chairman of the Bulgarian Political Science Association. Contact address: [email protected]

Milen Lyubenov, Political Science PhD, is an assistant professor and lecturer at the Chair of Political Science with the St. Kliment Ochrid- sky Sofia University. Contact address: [email protected] The upcoming elections due to be held on October 23d will take place in a tense situation prompted by the strongly exacerbated relations between the governing majority and the opposition. The election campaign on the local level and especially on the national level will run under the sign of all parliamentary represented parties standing against the GERB Party, as all of them – with the only exception of the MRF – have nominated presidential candidates of their own.