2 014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS

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Photo: Ines Saraiva 2 https://www.flickr.com/photos/inessaraiva/ 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS

FOREWORD

It is a great pleasure to present you with Fipra’s analysis of the European Parliament election results, drawing on our representation in each of the 28 Member States of the European Union to provide a detailed first insight into the results and possible consequences on a country-by-country basis.

The 2014 European Parliament elections were the third such elections since Fipra was founded in 2000. The elections were held in the aftermath of unprecedented economic, political and structural turbulence in the European Union and in many of its member and neighbouring states. Although the worst of the economic storm may now have eased or even passed, the second-largest democratic exercise on the PETER-CARLO planet gave voters an opportunity to have their say and pass judgment on the huge challenges that remain: unemployment and especially youth unemployment, growth, immigration and the fundamental LEHRELL role of the European Union, not only in the lives of millions of citizens across 28 countries in Europe, but also globally.

CHAIRMAN, THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS FIPRA INTERNATIONAL These were also the first elections since the Lisbon Treaty provided greater power and a more defined role for the European Parliament in the European Union’s decision-making. Voters delivered (at least in part) a verdict on how the European Parliament has performed in responding to the immense challenges +353 26 48936 of the past five years. [email protected] The last few results from the elections are still coming in, but the overall picture is now clear. The centre- right European People’s Party (EPP) will be the largest political grouping in the new European Parliament, with at least 213 seats out of 751 in total, while the Socialists have in the region of 191 seats. Between them, the two largest groups therefore have a majority in the new Parliament. All other political groups won less than 100 seats each, with the Liberals winning 64 seats and the Greens 52 seats. Protest votes have been extensive in several countries, but split between new left-wing parties in Spain and Greece, and the right-wing anti-European parties elsewhere, with ‘winners’ such as the National Front in France and the United Kingdom Independence Party unlikely to see eye to eye or to significantly dent the centrist, pro-European core of this Parliament. These protest parties may seek to delay and weaken processes, but their rise has not resulted in the eclipse of the leading pro-European political groups.

The detailed picture is of course more complex. In the UK and France - two out of the six largest Member States - the mainstream parties have received a battering, yet in Germany traditional parties have strengthened, while in Italy this vote has been a show of support for the new Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. In Spain, the government came out on top, while in Poland - contrary to expectations - the integrationists of the ruling coalition will also provide the strongest contingent of their national delegation. One of the most unexpected results was perhaps in the Netherlands, where the left-of-centre and pro-European parties - including D66 - surprised everyone including themselves with their strong showings.

In global terms, the European Union is an intergovernmental mechanism that has become more complex, not least as a result of the changing balance of powers between the European Parliament and the European Council, representing national Governments. Fipra has always sought to use our coverage and understanding of the political environment both in Brussels and in European capitals - from Berlin to Rome, from London to Athens - to help advise companies on the often-complex relationships between national parliaments, governments and the European Union. The European Parliament election results provide the backdrop to the decisions to be made in the coming months on the new President and Members of the next , and on where Europe as a whole is likely to go from here.

I hope you find this rapid analysis a useful insight into the elections and an early signpost on the likely priorities over the coming five-year term.

3 THE BIG PICTURE

4 Photo: European Parliament 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS

The European Parliament elections showed a clear rise in the popularity of Eurosceptic parties and were in no way an endorsement of EU and its policies. In fact, quite the contrary. But this scepticism looked quite different across Europe, and was in some countries not all that visible. In the northern part of Europe, the protest vote was largely right-wing, nationalistic, anti-immigration – and in many ways a rejection of the core values of the EU. In the southern part of Europe, the reaction was much more about the policies of the EU during the economic and financial crises – and less about the EU itself or the value of European cooperation. While the southern, predominately left-wing, opposition wants to see growth and jobs-oriented policies from the European Union, many of the northern Eurosceptics want to see less of the EU and its policies.

Governments in most countries were hammered by the voters. In France and the UK respectively, President Hollande and Prime Minister Cameron must now be wondering what hit them and how to deal with it. The Italian HANS and Dutch governments did better, and so did Mrs Merkel – or at least her wider coalition – so her position as the MARTENS EU’s strongest leader has been further cemented, indicating an element of welcome stability, not least when it comes to the Euro.

FIPRA SPECIAL BUSINESS AS USUAL? THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS ADVISER What will be the consequences of it all? The immediate issue is how the results may influence the choice of the new President of the European Commission. The Heads of State and Government will seek to agree on their preferred candidate for the leadership of the European Commission (and also the President of the European Council and the +32 2 231 03 40 High Representative for Security and Foreign Policy). It is their job to nominate, but it is the job of the European [email protected] Parliament to approve and elect the new President of the Commission. On the basis of the election results and talks with the national leaders, it is then up to Herman Van Rompuy as the current President of the European Council to lead the discussion with the European Parliament. But who can he talk to? The newly elected Eurosceptics will not have a common position now, and most likely will not have in the future either. They are too different. The National Front in France has been reaching out to other anti-EU parties, but with limited result, since the right-wing Eurosceptics have only nationalistic attitudes and anti-immigration policies in common. On other issues they differ in opinion, including attitudes towards the financial sector, international trade and most other subjects.

Therefore Van Rompuy must go to the (still) three largest groups, the centre-right (EPP), socialists (S&D) and liberals (ALDE). They each have their preferred candidates for the new President of the European Commission later this year – the so-called “spitzenkandidate” – but with the very large group of Eurosceptics now in the Parliament, and considering the three large party groups’ own losses, they may well form an unofficial “Grand Coalition” and thereby turn the European Parliament into more of a “pro et con Parliament”, rather than a Parliament of different party politics. This could also mean that they will be willing to find compromises with Mr Van Rompuy in choosing names for the three important posts.

Longer term, the election result could have more impact. It could mean that the European Parliament will be more reluctant to play with the new powers it has got from the Lisbon Treaty, and indeed also make them more careful about choosing the political agenda. Should the mainstream pro-European political groups try to carry on as before, arguing nothing has changed, the greatly increased number of Eurosceptics will actively challenge this.

STRONG OR WEAK COMMISSION? The choice of European Commission President will also say much about how strong an influence the next European Commission will have over the future direction of the EU. The European Council may want to continue with the inter-governmentalisation of the EU that developed during the financial and Euro crisis, and therefore prefer a weak candidate; or they may conclude that inter-governmentalism was a feature of the crisis, now felt to be past, and therefore select a stronger candidate. It also remains to be seen to what extent the three largest groups in the European Parliament will try to insist on one of the firmly integrationist candidates from the leading party groups being chosen. The outcome of these considerations will give a clear indication of the direction the EU will take for the next five years – and perhaps beyond.

This will of course also determine the speed and direction of EU policies in the years to come. It will be possible to do business as usual with the traditional parties in the Parliament, but in which areas? It seems clear that the EU now must concentrate on issues that are directly relevant and useful for the European population, but there are also policy areas that urgently need to be addressed. One of them is European energy policy, this time more driven by anxieties about security of supply than climate considerations. Other areas will be further development of the common foreign and security policy, banking union and the financial transaction tax, data security issues, social entitlements for people moving in the Single Market, and general initiatives on the growth and jobs agenda. There will be many more, and the EU machine can work as usual – but the outcome of the elections will be remembered for a long while, and the clearest interpretation will be: do more to address issues that are relevant for people.

It is difficult to predict the impact within the European Parliament of the large number of Eurosceptic and anti-EU Members of the Parliament, who may prefer to shout from the sidelines rather than engage in detailed work on policy. However, some of them may take a nationalistic and protectionist line on economic issues, such as free trade deals with other countries – and in particular the proposed Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the US. On issues of this kind, where there are clear differences between the EPP and the Socialists, the fringe parties could make a difference to the outcome.

In the meantime, however, do not expect the EU machine to grind to a halt. The European Union will continue to pass new rules and regulations and it will remain as relevant for business as ever. We will be following developments closely – and it will certainly require very close scrutiny and constant monitoring in order to gauge the temperature and to be able to engage effectively at the right moment. 5 RESULTS BREAKDOWN

6 Photo: Ralf Roletschek 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS 7 60 7.99% Others 38 EFD 5.06% ALDE Others NI 41 5.46% 64 60 NI 45 5.99% 41 GUE/NGL Greens/EFA EFD 46 ECR 6.13% 52 38 S&D 52 6.92% Greens/EFA ECR 191 46 64 ALDE 8.52% EPP GUE/NGL 45 191 214 S&D 25.43% 214 EPP 28.50% 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 Provisional results breakdown results Provisional Photo: http://michael-cashman.eu/ 8 MEMBER STATE REPORTS

9 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS AUSTRIA BELGIUM

MICHAEL GOLDINGER PETER TULKENS FIPRA SPECIAL ADVISER – AUSTRIA FIPRA SPECIAL ADVISER – BELGIUM +43 1 480 7507 +32 2 706 8177 [email protected] [email protected]

Overall the elections in Austria represented a In Belgium, first place was secured by the strong vote in favour of the European Union and Flemish Nationalists, but other regional and against populism, with two-thirds of the vote mainstream parties also performed well, while going to pro-European parties. the far-right, far-left and the Greens all lost ground. The conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) performed better than expected and defended The victory of the Flemish nationalist New its first place in the national vote (27%), despite Flemish Alliance (N-VA) is reflected in their THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS slight losses, in front of the Social Democratic allocation of seats, going up from one to four Party (SPÖ), which remains unchanged in seats, the highest number among the Belgian second place (24.1%). The Eurosceptic right- political parties. Former Prime Minister of wing Freedom Party (FPÖ, 19.7%) and the Belgium and European Commission presidential Greens (14.5%) gained votes compared to the candidate Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD) obtained previous European elections and the new pro- 474,000 votes of preference, securing three European liberal party, The New Austria Party seats for his party, including success for the (NEOS, 8.1%), which entered the European current European Commissioner for Trade, Karel Parliament for the first time, but lagged behind De Gucht, in addition to the three seats for the expectations. French-speaking liberal Movement Réformateur (MR). Christian-democrats, socialists, greens Other smaller parties such as Stop-EU failed to and the far-right will lose one seat each win seats. The threshold for Austrian elections is compared to 2009. 4%; however, due to the small number of seats available to Austria, it is necessary to achieve In Flanders, Flemish-nationalist (patriotic) N-VA more than 5% to win a seat in the delegation. gained strongly at the expense of the far-right Vlaams Belang (VB), while the traditional The ÖVP finished first in all Austrian regions, parties stood their ground – Social-democratic except the capital Vienna and the Eastern and Socialistische Partij Anders (SP.a) – or even won Southern states of Burgenland and Carinthia, additional seats in the federal parliament (such where the SPÖ won. Analysis shows that in as the Christian Democratic and Flemish Party particular older people (over 60 years) voted for (CD&V) and liberal Open VLD party). these two parties, whereas Greens, NEOS and FPÖ were more popular among people under 29 In Wallonia, the (PS) maintains years. political leadership over the liberal MR party, despite the far-left (communist) Worker’s Party of ÖVP and SPÖ will both obtain five seats, the Belgium (PTB) reaching the 5 percent threshold FPÖ four, the Greens three and the NEOS one for parliamentary representation. Ecolo, the seat each. The FPÖ will now start to seek to environmental green party, suffered significant form a Eurosceptic right-wing coalition that could losses. include the Dutch Freedom Party (PVV), the Italian Lega Nord (LN) and the Belgian Vlaams In Brussels, the results for the two main language Belang (VB). On Wednesday 28 May FPÖ leader constituencies – French and Dutch/Flemish Harald Vilimsky will meet Marine Le Pen from the speaking – were different. The French speaking French Front National. socialist party PS maintained leadership over the liberal MR party, whereas in the Flemish The ÖVP leader for the European Parliament speaking constituency, the liberal Open VLD elections, Othmar Karas, gave his full support to clearly won the elections. the EPP candidate for the position of European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker. Despite the clear victory of the Flemish- Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) nationalist N-VA, the coalition government also declared that as the EPP, and by extension maintains all its seats (96) in the House with Juncker, were the winners, it was Juncker who N-VA hereby failing to mobilise Flemish voters should become the next President. against the coalition government led by French- speaking socialists. Moreover, the care-taking It is still to be seen if the current European resigning coalition government of Prime Minister Commissioner from Austria, , Elio Di Rupo has now obtained a majority within will remain in office, particularly given the strong the Flemish speaking government parties. A shift personal performance of lead ÖVP candidate in seats occurred between opposition parties Othmar Karas. Vice-Chancellor Michael rather than between majority and opposition Spindelegger (ÖVP) said the decision on the parties. It is not clear how this pro-independence Austrian nominee will be taken based on the party, at a federal level, can capitalise on its portfolio attributed to Austria, but at present it success and move into government. In view of appears Mr Karas is the favoured candidate. the outcome of the elections and the stability of the government, a continuation of the coalition The turnout of the Austrian elections in 2014 led by Prime Minister Di Rupo remains a slightly increased from 45.6% in 2009 to 47.8%, possibility. nearly five points higher than the EU average.

10 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS CROATIA

ROSITSA VELKOVA NATKO VLAHOVIC FIPRA BULGARIA FIPRA CROATIA +359 2 960 0927 +385 1 789 8640 [email protected] [email protected]

There were three big surprises in the European The centre-right coalition emerged victorious Parliament . Firstly, the from the European Parliament elections, with difference between the 20% vote of the ruling a significant lead over the governing centre- Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and the left coalition. Voter turnout for the newest EU opposition centre-right Citizens for Development Member State was a disappointing 25% and of Bulgaria party (GERB), which polled 30% below the EU average, although this represented and topped the national vote. Secondly, the high an increase from the 20% seen in the inaugural support (18%) for the Turkish ethnic minority elections following the entry of Croatia to the EU THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS party, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms in 2013. (DPS), the other party of the ruling coalition in the National Assembly, which at previous The results show the opposition centre-right elections had barely reached double figures. coalition (HDZ-HSS-HSP AS-BUZ-DZS-HDS) Finally, the 11% collected by the Bulgaria without winning 41.3% of the vote and six of the eleven Censorship party (BBC) – a party which has not seats, while the ruling centre-left coalition (SDP- until recently been represented in the National HNS-IDS-HSU) with 29.9% achieved four seats. Assembly. This is interpreted as a loss in support for the ruling coalition, which now has one less seat The opposition GERB party of former Prime than in 2013. The opposition coalition gained and Minister won the European will continue with six mandates as before. Under Parliament elections, and the party now has one the reduction in the number of MEPs overall, additional MEP and six seats altogether. The Croatia is allocated one less seat than in 2013. other parties to be represented in the European Parliament are the BSP and the Movement for It was the newly formed greens ORAH (Walnut) Rights and Freedoms (DPS) with four seats party in receiving 9.4% of the vote and one each; the newly formed coalition around the seat that were the surprise of the election. BBC party of former journalist Nikolay Barekov, ORAH, which is led by former Environmental which will receive two seats, and the centre- Minister and former SDP member Mirela Holy, right Reformist Bloc of former EU Commissioner demonstrated that a significant percentage of , with one seat. Pro-EU rightist the centre-left electorate was willing to express parties in Bulgaria were dominant over the leftist its dissatisfaction with the Social Democrat Party parties with pro-Russian sympathies. (SDP)-led ruling government’s policies. The elections also demonstrate declining The biggest losers of the election is the Croatian confidence in one of the major ruling parties: Labourists Party who did not achieve the 5% BSP of Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski. threshold, thereby losing the single seat that GERB, along with BBC and Reformist Bloc, are they succeeded in winning in 2013; Labourist now planning to submit a no-confidence motion President and Sabor MP Dragutin Lesar in the government of BSP, DPS and Ataka. resigned as party President after the results were revealed. One of the most vocal and active Bulgarian MEPs, Ivailo Kalfin, will not receive a second The elected MEPs include Ivan Jakovčić (IDS), mandate in the European Parliament. Kalfin who replaces elected party list leader Nevena was formerly a representative of Coalition for Mimica, who will be the Croatian nominee for Bulgaria, the biggest party of which is BSP, European Commissioner, and is a former EU before joining the newly formed Alternative for Commissioner for Consumer Affairs. Bulgarian Revival (ABV) around former President Georgi Purvanov, but which received only four percent. Another renowned Bulgarian MEP, Antoniya Parvanova, who was Deputy Chair of ALDE Group, was also defeated, as the coalition she was part of – Coalition of United Democrats – failed to get even close to the threshold of six percent. Entering the European Parliament for the first time is the leader of the GERB ticket, , who is expected to be a leading figure in the European People’s Party group. – leader of the BSP ticket, and Leader of the Party of European Socialists (PES) – for now is choosing not to take his seat, as he may be considered as the Bulgarian nominee to the European Commission.

11 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS CZECH CYPRUS REPUBLIC

ACHILLEAS DEMETRIADES JANA MARCO FIPRA SPECIAL ADVISER – CYPRUS FIPRA CZECH REPUBLIC +357 22 676 060 +420 234 124 112 [email protected] [email protected]

The Cyprus election results did not result in any Pro-EU parties celebrated victory in the change in the allocation of the 6 seats. However, European Parliament elections in the Czech although turnout in European elections was Republic, with the pro-EU caucus of MEPs now previously higher in Cyprus than many other in control of a total of 15 seats, up from only nine EU countries, on this occasion only 44% of the at the 2009 elections. electorate voted, a substantial decrease from 59% in 2009 and 72.5% in 2004 – and the first There continues though to be limited engagement by Czech voters with the elections THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS time in any election that less than 50% of the electoral voted. and turnout was only 18.2%, with EU critics seemingly staying at home rather than exercising their votes. Even though Turkish Cypriots living in the area under Turkish control were included in the The results delivered three parties with almost electoral roll and entitled to vote, in fact only the same percentage of votes – ANO 2011, 3.19% did so, as most of the political parties in TOP09, ČSSD – each taking four seats each. the Turkish zone refused to participate or to field candidates. ANO 2011, the party of entrepreneur Andrej Babiš received 16.1% and topped the national The Democratic Rally (EPP) retained its two vote. Babiš is a new political star; his party seats with 37.75% of the vote, as did the received an unexpectedly high vote share in Progressive Party of Working People (EUL-NGL) taking second place in the Czech parliamentary with 27%. The (S&D) retained elections in late 2013. The party is a member of its seat, although with a new candidate, with the governing coalition and he personally is Vice 11% and so did the coalition of the Movement for Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. His party Social Democracy (S&D) with the Greens (which will be part of the ALDE faction in the European was a new alliance) with just under 8%. Parliament. There were 61 candidates (an unprecedented TOP09 polled in second position nationally number) in total, with the Coalition of Citizens with 15.9%. The party is avowedly very pro-EU and will join the EPP group in the European securing 6.78%, a new group whose leader Parliament. The very low turnout nationally had secured about 25% in the last Presidential helped the party, who could rely on their election. The newly formed anti-establishment highly motivated supporters to vote and wield movement Message of Hope secured less than disproportionate influence. 4% and the right wing Nationalist Party ELAM increased to 2.69% – very different results The ČSSD (Czech Social Democratic Party) compared to those in Greece. of Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka received 14.1% and will probably feel a little disappointed The vote for the Democratic Rally (part of with the result following their victory at the last the EPP group) can be seen as a vote of elections to the Czech Parliament in 2013. The confidence in the President of the Republic and party, set to join the S&D faction in the European his EU commitment, despite the unprecedented Parliament, received three less mandates than events relating to the austerity measures in the in the 2009 elections. The party itself is very economy and in particular the bank bailout and pro-European, but their voters are increasingly restructuring measures in March 2013. sceptical about the EU, which goes a long way to explaining the disappointing showing. Turkish Cypriot candidates either in coalition with the Greek Cypriot left or independently In fourth place with 11.9% was KSČM secured only 1.91%. Turkish Cypriots in the (Communist Party of Czech and Moravia) with three seats. The party, with its left wing and EU- Turkish controlled zone, who in the event of a critical outlook, will become a member of GUE- solution to the Cyprus problem are claiming 2 NGL (European United Left–Nordic Green Left). of the 6 seats allocated to Cyprus as a whole, did not in fact participate in the process despite The smallest member of the government legislative efforts by the current Government. coalition, the EPP-aligned KDU-ČSL (Christian Complaints had been voiced by Turkish Cypriots Democratic Party) received three seats on 9.9% that as much as 30% of their community was of the vote and will feel this was a successful not included in the electoral roll, a matter which election. is now expected to be the subject of domestic political debate. Entering the European Parliament for the first time is the Freedom Party, associated closely Last but not least it is expected that Christos with the UK Independence Party. Their 5.2% vote Stylianides of the Democratic Rally (EPP), who delivered a first seat, only just behind the ODS was the second person elected, will give up with two seats, who were heavily damaged by his seat to the third placed candidate as he is the prosecution of previous Chairman and Prime expected to become the next Cypriot appointee Minister Petr Nečas, and lost seven seats. to the new European Commission. 12 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS DENMARK ESTONIA

LARS ABEL ANDREAS KAJU FIPRA DENMARK FIPRA ESTONIA +45 3539 4344 +372 631 1505 [email protected] [email protected]

The 2014 European Parliament elections in The result of the elections in Estonia are a Denmark were historic for several reasons. For positive affirmation for the current government the first time in its nine year history, the populist coalition (Reform Party and Social Democrats) and Eurosceptic Danish People’s Party became and a firm pointer towards the national elections the largest party at a Danish election with 26.5% in Estonia during March 2015. of the vote and four of the 13 Danish seats in the European Parliament. It is also very likely that The clear winner was the governing Reform

the party’s top candidate, 33-year-old Morten Party (ALDE). Former Prime Minister Andrus THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS Messerschmidt, will beat the record for the Ansip personally received twice as many votes highest number of personal votes at a European than any other party affiliated candidate. He election. According to Messerschmidt he has will also be this government’s nomination to been approached by the UK Conservative Party the European Commission and as he himself to discuss joining the ECR Group. proclaimed, he used the elections to get a strong mandate for more leverage in portfolio The old parties are left more or less wounded negotiations. As a long-time head of government and in particular the Liberal Party, which for (2005-2014), his chances of landing a good months had been certain that they would take portfolio are viewed positively, especially as over the Prime Minister’s office after the next he is not from the EPP, as many neighboring general election. With only 16.7% of votes contenders are, such as former PM Dombrovskis – their worst European election result in 25 from Latvia and Katainen from Finland. years – they lost a seat (down from three to two seats), and the elections turned out to be a The elections were also a referendum for the personal nightmare for party leader Lars Løkke new Reform Party leader and Prime Minister, 34- Rasmussen. Three weeks before the elections, year old Taavi Rõivas, who thus passed his first opinion polls showed that the Liberal Party would test of fire, with his party winning two seats out of have around the same support as in 2009. Then the six Estonia has in the European Parliament. the Danish newspaper Ekstra Bladet claimed the Liberal Party had bought expensive clothes for The second seat earned by the Reform Party him and holiday tickets for his wife and children. will go to Kaja Kallas, current head of economic This story added to previous claims regarding affairs committee in the national parliament. As his allegedly excessive spending as President of daughter of Siim Kallas, former Estonian PM the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and and current European Commissioner, she is immediately damaged voter confidence. Løkke widely viewed as the future of Estonian politics. Rasmussen acknowledged the crisis and that he Both Ansip and Kallas are fiercely pro-business, was personally to blame. His position is severely rational and level-headed. weakened, and some party representatives have suggested that he should step down. European issues did not matter much in the pre-election campaigns. Ukraine and national Both the Prime Minister’s Social Democrats (from security weighed heavily in the background. four to three seats) and the Socialist People’s The oppositionary Centre Party (ALDE), put Party (from two to one seat) lost seats. For the the party leader, mayor of the capital Tallinn, Danish Conservative Party, the elections were a Edgar Savisaar, as their lead candidate. While positive surprise as their top candidate, MEP and the party depends on the Russian ethnic vote, former Minister Bendt Bendtsen, regained his it has throughout the last 20 years had a strong mandate and with 9.2% of the votes was ahead position among the less affluent and especially of expectations. The smaller party in the current elderly Estonian vote as well. However, due to Government, the very pro-EU Social Liberal several miscalculations during the last years and Party, which was not represented in the old the party leader’s comments on Ukraine this time Parliament, gained a seat. around that were seen as siding with Russia, they have more or less alienated the Estonian The election results might also have wider vote. This resulted in a surprisingly bad result implications for Danish politics. The next general for the party and its leader. Mr Savisaar, having election must take place before September 2015, personally dominated throughout elections as a and with the impressive growth of the Danish winner in Tallinn, lost to a fiery colleague from his People’s Party, the Liberal Party could have to own party, Yana Toom, who strongly campaigned depend heavily on them if they want to regain on Russian language, education and culture power. oriented topics.

13 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS FINLAND FRANCE

ILARI MARZANO JEAN FRANCOIS GUICHARD FIPRA FINLAND FIPRA FRANCE +358 9 4789 0630 +33 1 4282 0545 [email protected] [email protected]

Political pundits had predicted renewed public Abstentions first, Front National second. interest in the European Parliament elections, as Europe has dominated the political discussion The traditionally low public interest of the French in Finland. However, voting turnout remained at in elections to the European Parliament was 40.9%, only a few tenths of a percentage point evidenced again by an abstention rate of 58%, higher than five years ago. only slightly lower than five years ago (59%), despite a strong mobilisation of the Eurosceptic The results confirmed the status quo: the THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS parties advocating for more, if not all, power to Coalition Party, the Centre Party and the SDP be devolved to Member States and less, if any, to all retained their respective number of seats the European institutions. (three, three and two). A minor surprise was the underperformance of the Eurosceptic True Finns. Despite good showings in the polls, the party Among these Eurosceptic parties, the far right only managed 12% of the vote and two seats. Front National (FN), headed by the Member of the outgoing European Parliament, Marine Le The elections were seen as a verdict on how far Pen, recorded its best result ever at national Finland is willing to go with deepening European level and, for the first time, ranked first overall integration. While anti-federalist rhetoric was with almost 25% of the votes. The main right- popular during the campaign, the results suggest wing opposition party, the EPP-aligned Union that Finnish MEP’s will identify chiefly with a pro- for a Popular Movement Party (UMP) achieved integration agenda. a little less than 21%, down significantly from the 28% it obtained in 2009. A substantial part The most notable among the 13 MEP’s returned of the electorate wanted to punish the governing are the Minister of European Affairs and Foreign Socialist Party (PS) of President François Trade and a former MEP, Alexander Stubb Hollande. This was done as the PS obtained less (Coalition Party/EPP), the Minister of Transport than 14% of the vote. and Local Government, Henna Virkkunen (Coalition Party/EPP) and the current European The Centrist and Green lists respectively scored Commission Vice-President and Commissioner 10% and 9% of the vote, and the far left Front for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn de Gauche (FG) 6%. Out of the 74 seats for (Centre Party/ALDE). French MEPs, 24 go to the FN, 20 to the UMP, Whether or not Mr Stubb will accept his mandate 13 to the PS, seven to the Centrists, six to the remains unclear as he is currently running for Greens and three to the FG. The most notable the chairmanship of the Coalition Party. The new elected are the FN numbers one and two, Marine Chairman, who will be chosen on 14 June, will Le Pen and Florian Philippot, as well as Alain likely become the next Prime Minister of Finland. Lamassoure (UMP), Rachida Dati (UMP), Brice Hortefeux (UMP), MIchèle Alli-Marie (UMP), Current Prime Minster, of the Marielle de Sarnez (Centre), Pervenche Bérès Coalition Party, has announced he is stepping (PS), Vincent Peillon (PS), José Bové (Green) down and pursuing a “senior position” in the EU. and Eva Joly (Green). His decision, and the fact that two other Coalition Party ministers have now been elected to the The election measured firstly, how the European Parliament may disrupt domestic performance of the PS majority and of President politics. François Hollande is accepted or rejected by the population which elected them only two years By tradition the party of the Prime Minister ago; and secondly, whether the EU project is decides the Finnish nominee as European accepted or not by the French. The outcome Commissioner, but if Mr Katainen is chosen to a is clear on the first point, with two right-wing senior EU-post such as head of the Eurogroup, opposition parties topping the vote, while the the other leading member of the governing coalition, the SDP, may challenge the Coalition governing PS obtained its lowest vote ever Party right to propose the Commissioner. This in elections to the European Parliament. It is dispute, ministerial changes and the fact that also very clear on the second point, with the the new chairman of the SDP (chosen two Eurosceptic and nationalist FN (the slogan of weeks ago and expected to become Minister of which was “No to Brussels, Yes to France”) Finance) is not in agreement with the economic reaching 25% and getting the best vote share. policy of his predecessor, may lead to a domestic crisis when Parliament ratifies the new Prime Minister and government programme at the end of June. If deadlock occurs, Finland may be heading for early elections (formally scheduled for April 2015) or a caretaker government.

14 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS GERMANY GREECE

ANGELIKA JOSTEN JANSSEN JOHN TZOANNOS FIPRA GERMANY FIPRA SPECIAL ADVISER – GREECE +49 3020 454 680 +30 210 804 1609 [email protected] [email protected]

While an increase in support for the Social Harsh austerity measures in Greece during Democratic Party (SPD) delivered four extra the last four years have taken their toll on the seats for the party in Germany, the EU-wide vote electoral strength of the ruling coalition parties, left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) candidate New Democracy (EPP) and the Panhellenic for the President of the European Commission, Socialist Movement party (PASOK, S&D). New German MEP , with a good deal of Democracy now has five European Parliament work to do. seats, as opposed to eight in 2009 and PASOK,

under the umbrella of the centre-left coalition of THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party of ELIA (The Olive Tree) only two compared to two Chancellor Angela Merkel and their Bavarian previously. ally the Christian Social Union (CSU) both lost ground, with the CSU hit more dramatically, The radical left party of SYRIZA, member of losing more than a quarter of the vote compared the Party of the European Left, finished top to 2009. Together, the CDU and CSU will control of the vote share with a margin of nearly four 34 seats, a net loss of eight seats. percentage points over New Democracy. It will now be represented by six MEPs compared to 1 In second place was the SPD, which gained previously. The leader of SYRIZA, Alexis Tsipras, considerably and polled 27.3%, adding a further is currently Opposition leader in the Greek four seats and a new delegation of 27 seats. The Parliament and is standing as a candidate for the presence of lead candidate Martin Schulz and his President of the European Commission on behalf high profile campaign to be chosen as the next of the Party of the European Left. President of the European Commission likely strengthened voter support. The victory of SYRIZA over New Democracy is not expected to lead to a fall of the coalition The Greens went down from 12.1% to 10.7% government, since the combined vote share of and will get 11 seats (-3). Free Democratic New Democracy and PASOK/ELIA significantly Party (FDP, ALDE) lost heavily and polled only exceeds that of SYRIZA, which failed to turn the 3.4% to reduce their seats to three (-9). They European Parliament elections into a plebiscite suffered from the rise of the Eurosceptic Action on the government. In fact SYRIZA has failed to for Germany (AfD) with 7% and seven seats. The surpass its vote share in the 2012 Greek general Left received 7.4% (- 0.1%) and will return with election. Furthermore, New Democracy managed seven seats. to win the vast majority of regions of the country and many municipalities in the parallel regional Due to the fact that the German Constitutional and local elections. Court ruled as unconstitutional the 3% threshold clause in law for the European Parliament Voters have, however, punished the ruling election, there will be seven German splinter parties for the austerity measures, but not to the parties represented in the new European extent of creating the necessity for early national Parliament with a single seat each, among them elections that would destabilise the Greek the neo-nazi NPD and the Pirate Party. economy. Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras and the leader of PASOK, Evangelos Venizelos, have The strength of the EPP vote across the EU dismissed the demands of SYRIZA for early leaves Jean-Claude Juncker in a stronger elections. position in the race to succeed José Manuel Barroso. Chancellor Merkel has yet to declare The extreme right-wing, nationalist and her position, although it is likely that she wants eurosceptic Golden Dawn party came third and to block Schulz, but without risking domestic now commands three seats in the European consequences for the Grand Coalition between Parliament, despite the fact that its leader, her CDU/CSU faction and the SPD of Martin Nicos Mihaloliakos, and a number of its MPs Schulz. A compromise might be to secure are in prison pending trial for criminal offences. another prominent position for Schulz, be it in the Another Eurosceptic party, the Communist Party Commission or elsewhere. of Greece (KKE), also managed to improve its share of the vote, but not the number of its The chairpersons of the three coalition parties, MEPs, and will continue to command two seats. Chancellor Merkel, Vice Chancellor Gabriel and the Bavarian Prime Minister Seehofer met A newcomer to the Greek political scene is immediately following the election results to try the party TO POTAMI (The River), created to reach a common position on the post of new only two months ago by the journalist, Stavros Commission President. However, Ms Merkel Theodorakis. It has centre–left characteristics, has already stated, the whole process might last is pro-European, and has an appeal to those several weeks. moderates in the electoral body disappointed with traditional parties.

15 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS HUNGARY IRELAND

TAMÁS SÁRDI ANN KELLY FIPRA HUNGARY FIPRA IRELAND +36 1 354 1159 +353 1 661 2317 [email protected] [email protected]

Amid an historically low turnout of 28.92%, Ireland witnessed an overwhelmingly anti- the European Parliament elections have Government and anti-austerity vote. What was fundamentally redrawn the Hungarian political most surprising was the extent of traditionally landscape. The ruling centre-right alliance of middle class voters who turned to the Irish Fidesz and Christian Democrats (Fidesz-KNDP) Republican Party, Sinn Féin. In the capital city, gained their fifth resounding electoral triumph in Dublin, a relatively unknown Sinn Fein candidate a row by polling 51.5%. Radical nationalist Jobbik received 23.62% of first preference votes. This

THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS party came in second behind Fidesz with 14.7% was a sweeping reaction to the plethora of new of the vote, while the Socialist Party (MSZP, taxes squeezing middle class voters in particular with 10.92%) barely managed to beat the leftist and to a yawning gap created by the Labour Democratic Coalition (DK, 9.76%). ‘Together Party which, while in coalition Government with 2014-PM’ (E-PM) took 7.22% of the total vote, the centre right party, Fine Gael, is perceived as while green LMP scored 5.01% of votes, only just having lost touch with the compassionate needs above the threshold for a mandate. of their members. Independents and others also performed beyond expectations – also a reaction The victory of Fidesz translates into 12 seats out to mainstream parties. While Sinn Fein and of the Hungarian quota of 21. Jobbik will have some Independents will be seen as Eurosceptic three seats, while MSZP only managed to secure they will certainly not fit with more extreme two. DK received two mandates, E-PM received Eurosceptic parties, such as UKIP. a single seat and green party LMP similarly. Although at the time of writing counting has Fidesz-KDNP secured its dominant position in still not concluded, the results are expected to Hungarian political life and gained the best result see the main coalition Government party, Fine in the entire European People’s Party (EPP) Gael, with four seats; Sinn Fein with three seats; group. The results had serious ramifications Fianna Fáil with one seat and Independents with for opposition parties. Anti-EU Jobbik took over three seats. This compares with a predominantly the ‘main challenger’ position of MSZP, which mainstream party presence in the last European had been at least the second strongest political Parliament. force since 1994. The results from the capital – a Socialist stronghold since 1990 – were the The stability of the current coalition Government, ultimate surprise of the election: in Budapest, made up of Fine Gael (EPP Group) and the DK – a formation breaking from the MSZP in (S&D Group) has been seriously 2011 and led by the former Socialist Prime undermined by the results of the European Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány – came in second, and local elections. In reaction to internal party while E-PM – also led by a past Socialist Prime pressure, the leader of the Labour Party, Eamon Minister, Gordon Bajnai – also got ahead of Gilmore, Tánaiste, Deputy Prime Minister, MSZP. and Minister for Foreign Affairs, resigned as leader of the Labour Party. This was a result The classic duality of ‘the Left and the Right’ of a disastrous showing for the Labour Party in Hungary has vanished. Fidesz became in returning no candidate to the European undoubtedly the dominant political force, Parliament and polling just over 7% of first positioning itself equidistant from the far-right preference local council votes. His decision to (Jobbik) and from the far-left parties (MSZP, resign as Labour Party leader has triggered a DK). The possible long-term impact of the leadership race, and has also raised doubts elections is divergent: first of all, leftish parties about the ability of the Coalition Government to will now confront far-right Jobbik in order to survive its full term. regain the position of the ‘second largest political force in Hungary’. To date, the Hungarian The Government will need to present a fresh Left has refused to confront or to engage with face to the electorate if it is to remain in power. representatives of Jobbik – but it seems their This comes at a time when Ireland needs to ‘quarantine-policy’ has failed. Secondly, a serious maintain political and economic stability against ‘in-house’ struggle is likely to develop between the backdrop of an economy slowly emerging MSZP, DK and E-PM, as the Socialist Party has from crisis. An anticipated Cabinet reshuffle will clearly lost its position as the leading force of now be put on hold until most likely the week the Left. Socialist Party leader Attila Mesterházy following the appointment of a new Labour said that the party’s presidium would offer its Leader on 4 July. The Government faces a resignation after the poor electoral showing. period of uncertainty, and the political disruption may impact the likelihood of the coalition remaining in power until the end of its full five- year term in 2016.

16 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS ITALY LATVIA

MARIELLA PALAZZOLO ARMANDS GUTMANIS FIPRA ITALY FIPRA LATVIA +39 06 6994 0838 +371 2921 4466 [email protected] [email protected]

The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) with The elections in Latvia witnessed a clear victory an unexpected and surprising 40.8% won the for pro-European parties, in particular the elections for the European Parliament in Italy. governing party, The Unity, which won four seats The party of the PM Matteo Renzi managed to from the Latvian delegation of eight, and gained raise its vote by almost 15% compared to its the support of more than 46% of those voters previous results (26.1% in 2009 elections) and who participated in the elections. The leading increase its seats at the European Parliament candidate of this party, former Prime minister

from 21 to 31. Mr Dombrovskis, led this successful campaign THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS and will be the Latvian candidate for the post of Although announced as a head-to-head runner European Commissioner. His four-year stint as with PD, Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement Prime Minister was viewed positively, especially (5SM) only got 21.2% (17 seats), while Silvio in the face of the economic crisis. Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (FI) dropped from 2009’s 35.3% (29 seats) to 16.6% (13 seats). It remains a surprise though that The Unity were able to secure half of the Latvian seats A protest vote for Grillo’s Eurosceptic and anti- in the European Parliament and with such an establishment Five Star Movement was widely impressive vote share. The party is centre-right expected, due to the severe economic and and EPP-aligned, with a clearly pro-European employment situation in Italy, but voters preferred stance. Among their MEPs there are three with to indirectly support the reform path undertaken the experience of having worked in the European by the Renzi Government since it was formed Parliament. One has been the Prime Minister in February 2014. The astonishing result his previously while three others have had Ministerial party achieved will most likely give impetus to experience in Latvia. many dossiers currently stalling in the national Parliament. The other four seats forming the Latvian delegation are distributed among four other The Government came out strongly reinforced parties. One seat goes the “Union of Greens and from the European elections – one of very few Farmers”, another to All for Latvia / Fatherland to do so. When Renzi replaced his predecessor and Freedom, which many would see as more Enrico Letta, no political elections were held in nationalistic in policy and tone. It is a surprise Italy, and the Government was blamed for lacking that this party won only a single seat – it has popular legitimacy – which instead the European to be remembered that this party used to have election results indirectly granted it. Renzi will not four MEPs from Latvia. The MEP from this party be eager to hold new elections soon, with a view is elected for the third time and thus brings at strengthening his majority in Parliament, since considerable experience with him. turnout data (58%) make uncertain the outcome of a political election (when voter turnout is Politicians playing the ethnic card secured the usually around 80%). two remaining seats. Latvia has a large ethnic Russian minority, and voters of ethnic Russian Instead, a Cabinet reshuffle might be expected, background are usually voting for parties that as some of the parties of the Government promise to defend the interests of the Russian coalition have had poor results and their community. The surprise is that this time these representation in the Cabinet is now overstated. parties secured only two seats, although the The centre-right Nuovo Centro Destra (NCD) is ethnic Russian community constitutes almost a just above the 4% threshold (it is projected to third of Latvian voters. win three seats), and above the centrist Scelta Civica/Scelta Europea, which won 0.7% and no seats. On the eve of the Italian Presidency semester, the position of Prime Minister Renzi has strengthen significantly: not by chance, Renzi commented on the vote’s outcome, stressing that “now the EU must listen to us”, and he anticipated that he will raise the issue of Italy’s role in the EU’s balance of power in the scheduled meeting with EU Head of States and Governments on 27 May. The only other parties winning seats have been the Eurosceptic Northern League ( LN - 6.1% and five seats) and The Other Europe (4% and three seats).

17 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS LITHUANIA LUXEMBOURG

ARŪNAS PEMKUS JOE HUGGARD FIPRA LITHUANIA FIPRA SPECIAL ADVISER - LUXEMBOURG +370 5 268 5135 +35 230 5544 [email protected] [email protected]

The second and final round of the Presidential Luxembourg bucked the Eurosceptic trend seen election in Lithuania coincided with the European across much of the EU, returning a national Parliament elections, where it was hoped that delegation with no change in the distribution of voter turnout would be encouraged. However, MEPs elected, with the Christian Democrats due to rather obvious voter apathy and (CSV) holding three seats and the Liberals scepticism regarding the influence of Lithuania (DP), the Socialists (LSAP) and the Greens within the European Parliament, voter turnout (Dei Greng) each retaining a single seat each.

THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS dropped to 47.3% from the previous round of However, the big winner was the CSV, which Presidential voting. It should be noted, though, moved from 32% in 2009 to 38% in 2014, mainly that voter turnout was still more than double at the expense of the coalition partners (DP, the extremely low turnout in the 2009 European LSAP and Dei Greng). Parliament election (21.0%), suggesting that the population is slowly recognising the importance While the result has been reported by some left- of the institution. leaning media as expressing frustration with the slow progress in reform by the current coalition, The 11 seats allocated to Lithuania were independent commentators do not see it as a very equally distributed, while none of the protest vote against the current government, clearly Eurosceptic or extremist radical parties which came to office less than six months ago. succeeded in surpassing the voting barrier as some had predicted. The big losers were the Socialists. The LSAP’s leadership was virtually invisible throughout the The two largest traditional parties – the campaign, and their strategists had made an conservative Homeland Union/Christian uninspiring choice for the head of their list, who Democrats and the Social Democrats - did only came in ninth place in terms of personal not achieve their hoped-for three or four seats vote. which they had in the previous Parliament: both received only two seats each. The young, dynamic Pirate Party got 4% in its first European Parliament election outing in A surprising increase to two seats came to the Luxembourg, and the right-wing conservative Liberal Movement, while the just-right-of-center ADR was essentially unchanged at 7.5%. There Order and Justice Party maintained their two was little evidence of a swing to the extreme right seats. or left. The remaining three seats were distributed The gains for the Christian Democrats reinforce between the conservative but ethnically their position as the largest party in the country. motivated Polish Election Action Party/Russian Their success is attributed to a number of Alliance, the just left-of-center Labor Party and factors. Viviane Reding, a senior member of the the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Party. present European Commission, campaigned very well, has a high profile and it is generally This distribution reflects an almost perfect well-liked and respected by the public. This all rainbow of Lithuanian politics, but also shows resulted in a very high personal vote, which was that voter opinion is now very much in flux. Voter up almost 80% compared with 2009. Also, it must understanding of the European Parliament is still be recognised that Luxembourg is fundamentally limited, while this election was also a political a Christian Democrat country and the results barometer for the upcoming municipal elections. reflected this. The overlap with the Presidential election What is interesting is that the result is seen as a became important to the European Parliament ringing endorsement of Jean-Claude Juncker, the elections. In the second presidential election former Prime Minister, as the EPP candidate for round, the opposition conservatives and liberals the next European Commission President. Some supported sitting President and eventual winner say that the generally soft touch campaigning Dalia Grybauskaite, whereas her opponent (and by the other main parties in Luxembourg was current MEP) Zigmantas Balcytis represented the result of a desire not to attack Juncker, the the ruling coalition Government (Social “Luxembourg National Candidate”. He was Democrats). His failure to win the Presidential described as the “Seventh Man” on the Christian election also pointed to the failure of his party Democrat list (each party ran with a list of six in achieving the expected European Parliament candidates). He has been endorsed by all the seats; however, he was also simultaneously a main parties, and they have stated that Juncker successful candidate to the European Parliament must now be nominated by the European and is being touted as the most likely Lithuanian Council. Prime Minister Bettel will attend the candidate for appointment to the European Informal Heads of State Dinner Meeting in Commission. Brussels on 27 May with a strong mandate to support his predecessor.

18 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS NETHERLANDS

UKKO METSOLA MIRIAM OFFERMANS FIPRA SPECIAL ADVISER – MALTA FIPRA NETHERLANDS +32 2 613 2827 +31 70 304 6482 [email protected] [email protected]

The result of the European Parliament elections The results of the European Parliament elections in Malta cemented the political hegemony of the did not change significantly the overall pro-EU ruling Partit Laburista (PL, S&D Group in the position of the Dutch delegation (26 seats in European Parliament). total) in Brussels, contrary to some predictions. The election results, however, increased the level In March 2013 Prime Minister of fragmentation in the Dutch delegation. The (himself a former MEP) won a landslide victory in voter turnout in the Netherlands did not change the national elections with a historically high 12% significantly compared to previous European THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS difference over Partit Nazzjonalista (PN, EPP elections. Group). Most polls ahead of the European Parliament The two most enthusiastically pro-EU parties elections had predicted that the gap between changed number of seats: the Liberal Democrat the two main parties would narrow significantly. party (D66) won one additional seat (from three However, in the end the PL won by over 30,000 to four), GreenLeft (GroenLinks) lost one of their votes, thereby maintaining a comfortable 10% three seats. The anti-European populist party lead over the PN. of Geert Wilder (PVV) lost one out of their five current seats. The only new entrant in the Dutch However, after a real election thriller over the delegation is the pro-Animal party (PvdD) with sixth seat in the European Parliament, the one seat. Other Dutch parties were not changed Maltese MEPs were ultimately shared three each by the European election results: the Christian between the two main parties. Democrats (CDA) hold five seats, and became the largest party. The current Dutch coalition For the PN this was the first election under its parties – Conservatives (VVD) and Social new leader Simon Busuttil (also a former MEP). Democrats (PvdA) both retained their seats The campaign was fought almost exclusively (three each). The Eurosceptic left-wing Socialist on domestic issues, and it was seen largely party (SP) and the Christian Orthodox parties as a popularity contest between the two party (ChristenUnie & SGP) both kept their two seats. leaders. Busuttil was hoping that the electorate would send the Prime Minister a yellow card Some of the more prominent MEPs from the after various controversial policies, including the notorious “cash-for-citizenship” scheme. current Dutch delegation, including Corien However, in the end PN’s supporters stayed at Wortmann and Ria Oomen from the CDA, had home in much larger numbers. As usual, the already announced their departure ahead of overall turn out in Malta was high, at 75%. the elections. Influential Dutch MEPs, including Hans van Baalen (Conservative/VVD), Wim van Perhaps the most notable aspect of the election de Camp and Lambert van Nistelrooij (Christian outcome is the surge of women into the national Democrat/CDA), Marietje Schaake, Sophie in’t delegation of Malta: the country that failed to Veld and Gerben Jan Gerbrandij (all Liberal elect a single woman directly in the previous EU Democrats/D66) and Bas Eickhout (GreenLeft/ elections (2004 and 2009) now has the highest GL) retained their seats. Entering the European proportion of female representation in the entire Parliament for the first time are Paul Tang and EU (two-thirds of the national delegation). Agnes Jongerius (both Social Democrat/PvdA), who will be expected to be leading figures given The six elected MEPs are Alfred Sant (PL, their past role as a prominent MP and chair former Prime Minister); Roberta Metsola (PN, of the largest in the Netherlands incumbent); (PL, TV presenter, not respectively. related to the infamous previous Commissioner John Dalli who had to resign from Barroso II due The election results are unlikely to have a to a bribery scandal. However, she is married significant bearing on the domestic political to a son of the future Maltese EU commissioner Karmenu Vella); David Casa (PN, incumbent); situation, with both coalition parties retaining Marlene Mizzi (PL, incumbent); and Therese their seats and unlikely to shift their stance on Comodini Cachia (PN, human rights lawyer / Europe. The next domestic elections for the academic). provincial councils are scheduled for May 2015, and the elected council members will vote for a There is a third party called Alternattiva new Senate, which might impact the position of Demokratika (Greens), but once again they the current coalition government, which does not failed to get any elected seats in spite of the control a majority in the Senate. personal popularity of its leader Arnold Cassola. The far right Imperium Europa has historically been ignored as a marginal fringe party, but this time their leader Norman Lowell did get over 6000 first count votes. A clear signal that Malta is not entirely free of the rising extreme political tendencies in Europe.

19 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS POLAND PORTUGAL

MAREK MATRASZEK ANA VILA NOVA FIPRA POLAND FIPRA PORTUGAL +48 22 629 5608 +351 21 355 6575 [email protected] [email protected]

With over 90% of the votes counted, the current Over the last three years Portugal has been poll results show the opposition Law and Justice governed by the Alliance formed by the Social party (PiS, part of the ECR Group) just in the and Christian Democrats elected in 2011 which lead, scoring over 32%, and the ruling Civic has undertaken hugely painful reforms to repair Platform (PO) party, members of the EPP, around the public finances that are now, gradually, 31%, both securing 19 seats. In third place is the showing positive results. post-communist (SLD,

THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS part of the S&D Group) with just over 9.5% (five This achievement, however, was not without seats). The current junior coalition partner, the political cost to the governing Alliance, which Polish Peasant Party (PSL, also part of the EPP feared voter backlash at the European Group), obtained 7% (four seats). The surprise Parliament elections, particularly with support insurgent was the New Right Congress (KNP), leaking to the opposition Socialist Party that may also with just over 7% (four seats). potentially then lead to early elections.

The vote for the Eurosceptic PiS represents a While the Socialist Party topped the European major boost for the opposition party, as this result Parliament vote with 31.5% and eight MEPs, an gives it four additional European Parliament increase of one seat, the governing Alliance was seats, with a 5% increase in vote share. The not fatally damaged and achieved 27.7% and result also entrenches the party’s hegemony on seven MEPs, down three. The relatively narrow the Polish Right, as the two parties that sought to vote margin between the Socialist Party and capture the soft-right vote – the Solidarity Poland the Alliance therefore prevents any chance of party, and the Poland Together movement – both early elections ahead of the already scheduled failed to cross the 5% threshold. elections in mid-2015. The neck-and-neck result will be disappointing The protest vote seemingly did not go to the for the governing PO party, which had hoped for Socialist Party; rather it went to abstention a solid victory to lay the ground for next year’s – blank and invalid votes – and a new Earth political battles. Of concern to Prime Minister Party (without representation in the domestic Donald Tusk is that the 2014 vote represents a Parliament) which surprisingly achieved 7.2% 13% decline in the share of the PO vote and a and delivered two MEPs. Led by Mr Marinho loss of six European Parliament seats. Pinto, a popular lawyer claiming to “speak the truth” and support transparency and honesty in The remaining results may have a significant politics, the party is broadly aligned to the green impact on domestic politics. Albeit relatively movement but has centre-left leadership and weak, the showing of the post-communist SLD will support Martin Schulz in the race to become (Democratic Left Alliance), with 10%, will place European Commission President. the party in a good position to be the sole representative of the Polish Left, and improves Portugal’s voters did not strengthen the far right, the chances of the SLD joining the government although the media has highlighted the fact that after the 2015 elections if PO needs its support the percentage of MEPs that do not support the to secure a parliamentary majority. concept of the European Union is growing fast. The ability of the junior coalition partner PSL The so-called pro-EU “Power Parties” (Socialist to maintain its previous European Parliament Party, Social Democrats and Christian election vote at 7% and its four MEP seats Democrats) represented less than 60% of the will be a relief to Leader and current Deputy vote, a record low number since the return Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Janusz to democracy in 1974. The overall results Piechocinski. nonetheless still suggest that either the Social Democrats alone or in coalition with the Christian The major upset of the campaign was the Democrats might win the 2015 legislative breakthrough of the anti-establishment New elections. Right Congress (KNP), with 7% of the vote. Led by the maverick Janusz Korwin-Mikke, KNP espouses a combination of isolationist nationalism, anti-EU sentiment and a libertarian economic philosophy, with a liberal sprinkling of general political incorrectness.

20 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS ROMANIA SLOVAKIA

DANUT NICOLAE PATRIK ZOLTVANY FIPRA ROMANIA FIPRA SLOVAKIA +40 21 230 3058 +421 2 5443 6004 [email protected] [email protected]

Big stakes were at play for all the major parties in With a historically low voter turnout of only Romania at the European Parliament elections, 13% in the European Parliament elections, the mainly due to the fact that they are considered lowest in any EU country, Slovakia has again test runs for the Presidential election that will and for the third time in a row become a symbol take place in November 2014. Overall turnout of a widening gap between the EU institutions was nonetheless no higher than 32% of the and citizens, and rising apathy among voters. electorate. In 2004, the voter turnout was 17% and five

years later it was 19.6%. The high abstention rate can be partially ascribed to a so-called THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS The results for the Government coalition Slovak Paradox: even though Slovaks tend to dominated by the Social Democratic Party be the most pro-European nation in the EU, they of Prime Minister Victor Ponta exceeded seem indifferent in terms of their participation in expectations and can be viewed as a significant European Parliament elections. victory, while the performance was worse than expected for all parties in the opposition, Slovakia has 13 seats in the European where the National Liberal Party and the Liberal Parliament. From a record 29 parties and 333 Democrat Party, together with other right parties candidates, Slovaks chose eight predominately are now likely to appoint a common candidate pro-EU parties. The elections were won by the should they want to have any success in the pro-EU ruling Direction – Social Democracy Presidential election. (SMER-SD) of the Party of European Socialists (PES). However, SMER-SD gained only 24.09% and dropped one seat to return only four MEPs Incumbents dominated the candidate lists of the (Maroš Šefčovič, Monika Flašíková Beňová, political parties in Romania for the European Boris Zala and Vladimír Maňka) and the results Parliament elections. Some 18 of the present 33 are a major political defeat. MEPs have been elected in the new elections. Aside from the incumbents, candidates proposed Four centre-right and pro-EU parties of the by the major parties in Romania include former European People´s Party (EPP) did surprisingly ministers, members of the parliament and other well and share six seats. Christian Democratic officials. Since no real fresh names, with the Movement (KDH) scored two seats (Anna exception of the independent Mircea Diaconu, Záborská and Miroslav Mikolášik) with 13.21%, can be found on the list, it is safe to assume that Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU- there won’t be any major changes in the political DS) gained two seats (Eduard Kukan and Ivan agendas that will be pursued by Romania’s new Štefanec) with 7.75%, Party of the Hungarian MEP delegation. Community (SMK) scored one seat (Pál Csáky) with 6.53% and Bridge (Most-Hid) gained one seat (József Nagy) with 5.83%. Euroscepticism is not yet a major issue on the Romanian political scene, even though there Euro-critical Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), are some who believe the campaign run by of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for the Social Democratic Party for the European Europe (ALDE) took one seat (Richard Sulík) Parliament elections promoted nationalist with 6.66%. Center-right NOVA, of the European themes and some elements of Euroscepticism. Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) won This was driven as much by the pro-American one seat (Jana Žitňanská) with 6.83% and the views of the party leadership as by seizing, for non-aligned Ordinary People and Independent electoral advantage, on popular discontent at Personalities (OLaNO) secured one seat austerity programmes blamed on the European (Branislav Škripek) with 7.46%. Union. In general, the majority of the Romanian MEP delegation remains pro-Europe and pro- Slovakia elected predominantly pro-European business. and pro-business MEPs. Out of the 13 MEPs, there are seven new MEPs and six re-elected. Maroš Šefčovič (current European Commission There are negotiations going on right now for Vice President and Commissioner for Inter- the National Liberal Party to join the EPP group, institutional Relations and Administration) is moving from ALDE, but whether this will happen expected to resign as an MEP if nominated as is still debatable since the proposition comes Slovak Commissioner. from the current leadership of the party that is expected to be changed as a result of the poor showing in the European Parliament elections.

21 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS SLOVENIA SPAIN

MIHAEL CIGLER SEBASTIAN MARIZ FIPRA CORRESPONDENT – SLOVENIA FIPRA SPECIAL ADVISER – SPAIN +386 30 408 486 +34 91 640 2112 [email protected] [email protected]

Parties of the right and centre-right were the The ruling Partido Popular (PP, EPP-aligned) clear winners in the European Parliament won the European Parliament elections with elections held in Slovenia. Together they won 26% of the votes and 16 seats. Together with five seats, adding a seat to their total in 2009, Angela Merkel and Matteo Renzi, Mariano Rajoy while three of the parties elected have never held is one of the few leaders in Europe who can say a seat in the European Parliament previously that voters have, in general, ratified through the and half of elected MEPs are first timers in the elections his austerity policies. This is not to say,

THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS European Parliament. however, that his party has not suffered in these elections; the party lost six seats in comparison The victory of right wing parties was however with the 2009 election. widely expected. There is no black and white reason, but many are disillusioned with the Along with the PP, the main opposition party political situation, and constant divisions on the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE, S&D) left and right. At this election, the right parties also suffered loses, winning only 14 seats, a were more united than those on the left. As reduction of nine seats. For the first time in sociologist Dr Gorazd Kovačič stated, projections Spanish democracy, the two leading political still show that left voters are in the majority, but parties have not won 50% of the total vote. This they are less persuaded by current parties to go means the end of Spain´s bipartisan system, with to the polls. the smaller parties profiting from the loss in voter confidence in the two larger parties. Izquierda Voting turnout was low, at 24.1% (down from Unida (IU, left wing) managed to obtain six 28.4% in 2009), but despite the low turnout, 77% seats, four more than in 2009, and Podemos; a of those voting decided to vote by preference splinter group from IU won five seats in their first vote (74% in 2009) and with the exception of election. Both IU and Podemos have advocated Patricija Šulin (SDS, aligned to the EPP), most for an end to EU-enforced austerity programmes MEPs were elected on this list. The biggest loser and tight deficit targets. in this way is definitely Dr Igor Lukšič, President of Social Democrats and head of candidates list, Centre-left liberal parties such as the Union who was the only party head not to get elected, Progress and Democracy party (UPyD) losing to Tanja Fajon. won four seats, three more than in 2009. Ciudadanos, another center-left liberal party – Following the resignation of Prime Minister but from Catalonia – won two seats in their first Alenka Bratušek this month, the Government nationwide election. The two Catalan nationalist can only undertake minimal administrative parties, pushing for a referendum on Catalan functions.Added to the fact that the opposition independence from Spain (ERC and CiU) faired right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) relatively well. won the European Parliament elections, the question is still open regarding who will be the If these results were repeated in the general next European Commissioner from Slovenia. The election scheduled next year, it would be nearly President of SDS, Janez Janša, stated soon after impossible for the two leading political parties the results that the Commissioner from Slovenia to form stable coalitions, leaving them with only should come from the party that received the two choices: either calling for new elections most votes at the European Parliament elections, or a German-style Grand Coalition between and that anything else would be considered anti- conservatives and socialists – an unprecedented democratic. scenario in Spain. Shortly after the results, Dr Gregor Virant, The election results mean that the Spanish President of Civic List and current Minister of government, lead by the Partido Popular, will the Interior, resigned from his position of party push for its leading candidate, Miguel Arias president and announced that he is leaning Cañete, to become Vice-President of the towards leaving politics. A day later, Dr Igor European Commission in a position linked to Lukšič also resigned as president of the Social economic policy. Spain will hope to influence Democrats. the decisions taken on renegotiation of deficit objectives, and fostering an active policy for the ECB to back and facilitate credit programmes to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).

22 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS UNITED SWEDEN KINGDOM

BO KROGVIG RORY CHISHOLM FIPRA SWEDEN FIPRA UK +46 8 5181 6962 +44 207 251 3801 [email protected] [email protected]

The European Parliament elections in Sweden The story of the European Parliament elections provided three clear winners and one big loser, in the UK was the success of the strongly with Swedish voters in this election getting more Eurosceptic United Kingdom Independence polarized, as elsewhere in Europe. Party (UKIP), with 27.5% of the total votes cast (up 11%) and 24 seats (an increase of 11 The Swedish electorate has a habit of sending from 2009). It is the first time a party other than new parties to the European Parliament. This the Conservatives or Labour has topped a UK

time two new parties will enter Brussels and nationwide poll in over 100 years. This strong THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS Strasbourg. The right-wing, euro-sceptic, showing will intensify debate over the future of xenophobic and populist Sweden Democrats the UK in the European Union. (Sverigedemokraterna) got around 10% of the popular vote and gained two of the 20 All the other parties performed poorly or worse. seats representing Sweden in the European The main opposition Labour Party increased Parliament. The left-oriented feministic, tolerant their vote on an exceptionally bad result in and outspoken non-racist party Feministic 2009 and came second, winning 20 seats in Initiative (Feministiskt Initiativ) won 5.3% of the total (up seven), but their vote of 25.5% was votes and gained one seat in the European disappointing. The governing Conservatives Parliament. fared worse, securing only 24% of the total vote and 19 seats (down seven) – the first time The election result was a big disappointment for the Conservative Party has come third in a UK the party of Prime Minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, nationwide election. Yet a poor Conservative the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) of the EPP, performance had been expected, and the who came in only as the third-largest party with Prime Minister, David Cameron, was quick to 13.5%, compared to around 30% in the last dismiss suggestions of a pact with UKIP at the national parliament elections in 2010 or nearly UK General Election next year. UKIP’s success 19% in the last European Parliament elections. was also at the expense of the far right, with the The Moderate Party will return to Brussels British National Party losing both their seats. with three MEPs and one less seat. The three smaller coalition partners in the ruling center- The worst performance was that of the pro- right Alliance will all return with MEPs. The European Liberal Democrats, whose vote liberal party (Folkpartiet) in the ALDE group shrank by half to under 7%, and who lost all gained two seats (losing one). The Center but one of their 11 seats (down 10). They were Party (Centerpartiet) in ALDE and the Christian punished both as the junior partner in the UK Democrats (Kristdemokraterna) in the EPP Coalition Government and by the growing tide of succeeded in saving their single seats despite Euroscepticism in the UK. The attempt by Liberal speculation to the contrary. Democrat leader and Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, to position himself as the standard Despite topping the vote, the Social Democrats bearer of the ‘moderate majority’ supporting EU (Socialdemokraterna) faced a rather gloomy membership – including in televised debates with election result with a marginally reduced vote the UKIP leader, Nigel Farage – proved suicidal. share of 24.2%, and lost one seat, leaving them with five seats. The Left Party (Vänsterpartiet) Yet this election may ultimately strengthen the in the GUE-NGL won 6.3% of the vote and UK’s continued position in the EU. UKIP is will return with a single seat. The Green Party unlikely to do as well in the UK General Election (Miljöpartiet) came in as the second largest next year, where seats are allocated not by party after the Social Democrats, with 15.4%, proportional representation but on a first-past- having gained 4.4% and an additional two seats the-post basis. UKIP can still have a significant compared to the elections in 2009. The Green impact, particularly in marginal seats, but since Party will have four MEPs (gaining two). UKIP voters come more from the Conservatives than Labour, the overall effect may well be to Sweden faces national, regional and local assist the path of Labour back to power. The elections on 14 September. Stefan Löfven, Labour leader, Ed Miliband, has ruled out leader of the Social Democrats, would, as it following David Cameron’s proposal for an in/out looks today, be the most likely to form a new referendum in 2017. Nigel Farage may have just Government in September, following Fredrik won a pyrrhic victory that actually reduces the Reinfeldt’s eight years in office. What kind of likelihood of the UK voting to leave the EU. government he will form is still unclear. Most speculation leans towards a Social Democrat/ Green minority coalition.

23 INDICATIVE TRANSITION TIMETABLE

Photo: Cédric Puisney 24 https://www.flickr.com/photos/puisney/ 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

KEY DATES FOR YOUR DIARY

European citizens have elected 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) for a 22-25 May five-year term1

Informal European Council meeting to discuss election results and Commission 27 May presidency

June Formation of political groups THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS

26-27 June European Council meeting – proposal for Commission President expected2

1 July End of the Greek Presidency of the EU – start of the Italian Presidency

Constitutive plenary session of the new European Parliament (EP) – expected 1-3 July appointments of President, Vice-Presidents, Quaestors and composition of committees

7-10 July Election of EP Committee Chairs and Vice-Chairs

14-17 July EP plenary session – expected election of the President of the European Commission3

September Hearings of commissioners-designate in the EP

If the hearings run smoothly, the EP votes on the appointment of the new College of October Commissioners4

31 October End of mandate of the current European Commission

1 November The new European Commission for 2014-2019 should take office

Expected appointment of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and 1 November Security Policy

1 December The new President of the European Council should take office

1 With the entry of Croatia to the European Union on 1 July 2013, the number of MEPs temporarily increased to 766. The 2014 European Parliament election reduces the number of MEPs to 751.

2 The European Council must take account of the results of the election when nominating the person it intends to appoint as President of the Commission.

3 The EP will approve (by an absolute majority of 376 MEPs) or reject the candidate proposed by the European Council. If the absolute majority of the MEPs is not reached, the European Council, acting by a qualified majority, has one month to propose a new candidate who will be elected by the EP following the same procedure.

4 If the EP does not approve the new College of Commissioners, substitutes need to be found. This would delay the process.

25 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS

26 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS

27 Fipra International Ltd.

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