2 014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS THE FIPRA PAN-EU ANALYSIS Photo: Fabien Fivaz https://www.flickr.com/photos/ffivaz/ ABOUT FIPRA Fipra – Finsbury International Policy & Regulatory Advisers – is Europe’s leading and most extensive public affairs consultancy network, advising clients on a range of government relations and regulatory policy issues. Since it was founded in 2000, Fipra has expanded across the globe and now operates in over 50 countries internationally. In Europe, we are the only consultancy with top level public affairs advisers not only in Brussels, but throughout the Member States of the European Union. In addition, we have experienced public affairs advisers in a number of European Economic Area countries and EU candidate countries, as well as many of the EU’s neighbouring countries. We are known both for the seniority and expertise of our staff and for getting results. Many of our staff and Special Advisers have personal experience of having served national governments, parliaments and regulatory bodies, or have held senior positions in industry, trade associations, or consumer organisations. They are all experts in political and regulatory processes, not least because they have experienced them from many different perspectives at first hand. Photo: Ines Saraiva 2 https://www.flickr.com/photos/inessaraiva/ 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT FOREWORD It is a great pleasure to present you with Fipra’s analysis of the European Parliament election results, drawing on our representation in each of the 28 Member States of the European Union to provide a detailed first insight into the results and possible consequences on a country-by-country basis. The 2014 European Parliament elections were the third such elections since Fipra was founded in 2000. The elections were held in the aftermath of unprecedented economic, political and structural turbulence in the European Union and in many of its member and neighbouring states. Although the worst of the economic storm may now have eased or even passed, the second-largest democratic exercise on the PETER-CARLO planet gave voters an opportunity to have their say and pass judgment on the huge challenges that remain: unemployment and especially youth unemployment, growth, immigration and the fundamental LEHRELL role of the European Union, not only in the lives of millions of citizens across 28 countries in Europe, but also globally. CHAIRMAN, ANALYSIS THE FIPRA PAN-EU FIPRA INTERNATIONAL These were also the first elections since the Lisbon Treaty provided greater power and a more defined role for the European Parliament in the European Union’s decision-making. Voters delivered (at least in part) a verdict on how the European Parliament has performed in responding to the immense challenges +353 26 48936 of the past five years. [email protected] The last few results from the elections are still coming in, but the overall picture is now clear. The centre- right European People’s Party (EPP) will be the largest political grouping in the new European Parliament, with at least 213 seats out of 751 in total, while the Socialists have in the region of 191 seats. Between them, the two largest groups therefore have a majority in the new Parliament. All other political groups won less than 100 seats each, with the Liberals winning 64 seats and the Greens 52 seats. Protest votes have been extensive in several countries, but split between new left-wing parties in Spain and Greece, and the right-wing anti-European parties elsewhere, with ‘winners’ such as the National Front in France and the United Kingdom Independence Party unlikely to see eye to eye or to significantly dent the centrist, pro-European core of this Parliament. These protest parties may seek to delay and weaken processes, but their rise has not resulted in the eclipse of the leading pro-European political groups. The detailed picture is of course more complex. In the UK and France - two out of the six largest Member States - the mainstream parties have received a battering, yet in Germany traditional parties have strengthened, while in Italy this vote has been a show of support for the new Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi. In Spain, the government came out on top, while in Poland - contrary to expectations - the integrationists of the ruling coalition will also provide the strongest contingent of their national delegation. One of the most unexpected results was perhaps in the Netherlands, where the left-of-centre and pro-European parties - including D66 - surprised everyone including themselves with their strong showings. In global terms, the European Union is an intergovernmental mechanism that has become more complex, not least as a result of the changing balance of powers between the European Parliament and the European Council, representing national Governments. Fipra has always sought to use our coverage and understanding of the political environment both in Brussels and in European capitals - from Berlin to Rome, from London to Athens - to help advise companies on the often-complex relationships between national parliaments, governments and the European Union. The European Parliament election results provide the backdrop to the decisions to be made in the coming months on the new President and Members of the next European Commission, and on where Europe as a whole is likely to go from here. I hope you find this rapid analysis a useful insight into the elections and an early signpost on the likely priorities over the coming five-year term. 3 THE BIG PICTURE 4 Photo: European Parliament 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS 2014 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT The European Parliament elections showed a clear rise in the popularity of Eurosceptic parties and were in no way an endorsement of EU and its policies. In fact, quite the contrary. But this scepticism looked quite different across Europe, and was in some countries not all that visible. In the northern part of Europe, the protest vote was largely right-wing, nationalistic, anti-immigration – and in many ways a rejection of the core values of the EU. In the southern part of Europe, the reaction was much more about the policies of the EU during the economic and financial crises – and less about the EU itself or the value of European cooperation. While the southern, predominately left-wing, opposition wants to see growth and jobs-oriented policies from the European Union, many of the northern Eurosceptics want to see less of the EU and its policies. Governments in most countries were hammered by the voters. In France and the UK respectively, President Hollande and Prime Minister Cameron must now be wondering what hit them and how to deal with it. The Italian HANS and Dutch governments did better, and so did Mrs Merkel – or at least her wider coalition – so her position as the MARTENS EU’s strongest leader has been further cemented, indicating an element of welcome stability, not least when it comes to the Euro. FIPRA SPECIAL BUSINESS AS USUAL? ANALYSIS THE FIPRA PAN-EU ADVISER What will be the consequences of it all? The immediate issue is how the results may influence the choice of the new President of the European Commission. The Heads of State and Government will seek to agree on their preferred candidate for the leadership of the European Commission (and also the President of the European Council and the +32 2 231 03 40 High Representative for Security and Foreign Policy). It is their job to nominate, but it is the job of the European [email protected] Parliament to approve and elect the new President of the Commission. On the basis of the election results and talks with the national leaders, it is then up to Herman Van Rompuy as the current President of the European Council to lead the discussion with the European Parliament. But who can he talk to? The newly elected Eurosceptics will not have a common position now, and most likely will not have in the future either. They are too different. The National Front in France has been reaching out to other anti-EU parties, but with limited result, since the right-wing Eurosceptics have only nationalistic attitudes and anti-immigration policies in common. On other issues they differ in opinion, including attitudes towards the financial sector, international trade and most other subjects. Therefore Van Rompuy must go to the (still) three largest groups, the centre-right (EPP), socialists (S&D) and liberals (ALDE). They each have their preferred candidates for the new President of the European Commission later this year – the so-called “spitzenkandidate” – but with the very large group of Eurosceptics now in the Parliament, and considering the three large party groups’ own losses, they may well form an unofficial “Grand Coalition” and thereby turn the European Parliament into more of a “pro et con Parliament”, rather than a Parliament of different party politics. This could also mean that they will be willing to find compromises with Mr Van Rompuy in choosing names for the three important posts. Longer term, the election result could have more impact. It could mean that the European Parliament will be more reluctant to play with the new powers it has got from the Lisbon Treaty, and indeed also make them more careful about choosing the political agenda. Should the mainstream pro-European political groups try to carry on as before, arguing nothing has changed, the greatly increased number of Eurosceptics will actively challenge this. STRONG OR WEAK COMMISSION? The choice of European Commission President will also say much about how strong an influence the next European Commission will have over the future direction of the EU. The European Council may want to continue with the inter-governmentalisation of the EU that developed during the financial and Euro crisis, and therefore prefer a weak candidate; or they may conclude that inter-governmentalism was a feature of the crisis, now felt to be past, and therefore select a stronger candidate.