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Politischer Sonderbericht Bulgarien POLITISCHER SONDERBERICHT Projektland: Bulgarien Datum: 19.09.2011 Wahlkampf in Bulgarien Seit Anfang dieses Jahres wird das politische Leben in Bulgarien durch einen heftigen Wahlkampf gekennzeichnet. Am 23. Oktober 2011 finden Präsidenten- und Kommunalwahlen gleichzeitig statt. Der Wahlkampf startet offiziell am 24. September 2011. In der letzten Woche wurden die Namen aller wichtigen Kandidaten bekannt gegeben. Laut einiger Umfrageergebnisse würde Rosen Plevneliev, der GERB - Kandidat für den Posten des Staatspräsidenten, der Wahlgewinner sein. Auch die jetzt amtierende Oberbürgermeisterin der Hauptstadt Sofia, Jordanka Fandakova (GERB), würde erneut gewählt. Das bulgarische Meinungsforschungsinstitut “Mediana” veröffentlichte am 16. September 2011 folgende Prognose für die bevorstehende Staatspräsidentenwahl: 1. Staatspräsident(Kandidat) Partei, Koalition Prozente 2. Vizepräsident (Kandidat) 1. Rosen Plevneliev GERB* 29,1 % 2. Margarita Popova 1. Ivailo Kalfin BSP* 21,9 % 2. Stefan Danailov 1. Meglena Kuneva Unabhängig 14,1 % 2. Ljubomir Hristov 1. Volen Siderov Ataka 3,7 % 2. Pavel Shopov 1. Rumen Hristov Blaue Koalition 3,8 % 2. Emanuil Jordanov andere Kandidaten 4 % Nichtwähler 23,4 % * GERB – Bürger für europäische Entwicklung Bulgariens * BSP – Bulgarische Sozialistische Partei Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung_Politischer Sonderbericht_Bulgarien_19.09.2011 1 Rosen Plevneliev, der Kandidat der regierenden Partei, war bis zum 10. September 2011 Bauminister in der gegenwärtigen bulgarischen Regierung. Als Kandidat musste er nun von diesem Posten zurücktreten. Plevneliev spricht sehr gut Deutsch, er war acht Jahre in Bayern als Ingenieur und Unternehmer tätig. Von 1998 bis zu seiner Ernennung zum Minister war er Geschäftsführer der Firma „Lindner Bulgarien“. Die Kandidatin für das Amt der Vizepräsidentin, Margarita Popova, ist Justizministerin in der jetzigen bulgarischen Regierung, und zurzeit beurlaubt. Wenn bei der Präsidentenwahl keiner der Kandidaten mehr als 50 % der Wählerstimmen für sich gewinnen könnte, findet die Stichwahl am 30. Oktober 2011 statt. Darin liegt die Spannung bei diesen Wahlen. Wer würde bei der Stichwahl eventuell gegen Rosen Plevneliev antreten? Wen würden die anderen Parteien unterstützen und vor allem für wen würde sich Ahmed Dogan, Vorsitzender der Partei „Bewegung für Rechte und Freiheiten“, entschließen? Bis heute schweigt er noch, wenn er danach gefragt wird. Bei der traditionell niedrigen Wahlbeteiligung haben die “disziplinierten Wähler” dieser Partei der türkischen Minderheit in Bulgarien alle bisherigen Staatspräsidentenwahlen entschieden. Reale Chancen, in die Stichwahl mit dem GERB-Kandidaten Plevneliev zu kommen, haben Meglena Kuneva und Ivailo Kalfin. Ivailo Kalfin war bis 2009 Außenminister in der früheren bulgarischen Regierung und ist jetzt Europaabgeordneter in der PES-Fraktion (Party of Europeans Socialists). Sein Vize wurde erst vor einigen Tagen nominiert: Das ist Stefan Danailov, BSP- Abgeordneter und Kultusminister in der früheren Regierung bis 2009, einer der beliebtesten bulgarischen Theater- und Filmschauspieler. Meglena Kuneva war bulgarische Europaministerin von der „Nationalen Bewegung für Stabilität und Fortschritt (NDSV, die Partei von Simeon Sachscoburggotski) in der früheren bulgarischen Regierung und bis 2010 Europakommissarin für Verbraucherschutz. Mit ihrer unabhängigen Kandidatur hofft sie, einem breiten Wählerkreis zu imponieren. Den bevorstehenden Wahlen in Bulgarien wird aus folgenden Gründen eine hohe Bedeutung beigemessen: - Die Ergebnisse der Kommunalwahlen werden die Wählerstimmung zwei Jahre nach der Wahl der GERB- Regierung zeigen. Seit der Wende 1989 hat in Bulgarien noch keine regierende Partei oder Koalition die Kommunalwahlen gewonnen. Alle regierenden Parteien wurden bei jeder bisherigen Wahl vom Volk „bestraft“. Ein Wahlsieg für die regierende Partei GERB würde ein Ja-Wort für die Fortsetzung der strikten Sparpolitik der jetzigen Regierung zur Reduzierung des staatlichen Haushaltsdefizits sein, die Bulgarien zu einem Musterbeispiel für Europa gemacht hat (s. Kommentar von Klaus Brill in der SZ vom 25. Juli: „Lernen von Bulgarien“). Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung_Politischer Sonderbericht_Bulgarien_19.09.2011 2 Bei vielen Bulgaren findet eine solche Sparpolitik trotz der stabilen finanziellen Lage des Landes natürlich nicht immer Akzeptanz. - Obwohl Bulgarien eine parlamentarische Republik ist, werden dennoch Staatspräsident und Vizepräsident direkt vom Volk gewählt. Allein diese Tatsache macht die Institution des Staatspräsidenten zu einem wichtigen politischen Faktor in Bulgarien. Er ernennt die Leiter einiger der wichtigsten Staatsämter (z.B. den Generalstaatsanwalt, die Leiter der Geheimdienste, den Leiter des Generalstabs der Armee, die höchsten Grade bei der Armee u.a.). Staatspräsident Georgi Parvanov, der seit 2001 im Amt ist, war davor Vorsitzender der Bulgarischen Sozialistischen Partei. In den letzten zwei Jahren kam es oft zu heftigen Konflikten zwischen ihm und der Regierung. Bulgarische Botschafterposten zum Beispiel blieben monate- oder jahrelang unbesetzt, weil Regierung und Staatspräsident sich über politisch akzeptable Persönlichkeiten nicht einigen können. Die Ergebnisse der Wahlen werden die Tendenz in der politischen Entwicklung Bulgariens erkennbar machen. Bogdan Mirtschev Der Autor ist Projektleiter der Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung in Sofia, Bulgarien IMPRESSUM Erstellt: 19.09.2011 Herausgeber: Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung e.V., Copyright 2011 Lazarettstr. 33, 80636 München Vorsitzender: Dr. h.c. mult. Hans Zehetmair, Staatsminister a.D., Senator E.h. Hauptgeschäftsführer: Dr. Peter Witterauf Verantwortlich: Christian J. Hegemer, Leiter des Instituts für Internationale Zusammenarbeit Tel. +49 (0)89 1258-0 | Fax -359 E-Mail: [email protected], www.hss.de Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung_Politischer Sonderbericht_Bulgarien_19.09.2011 3 .
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