DEPTARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

BLOOD AND BALLOTS THE EFFECT OF VIOLENCE ON VOTING BEHAVIOR IN

Amer Naji

Master’s Thesis: 30 higher education credits Programme: Master’s Programme in Political Science Date: Spring 2016 Supervisor: Andreas Bågenholm Words: 14391

Abstract Iraq is a very diverse country, both ethnically and religiously, and its political system is characterized by severe polarization along ethno-sectarian loyalties. Since 2003, the country suffered from persistent indiscriminating terrorism and communal violence. Previous literature has rarely connected violence to election in Iraq. I argue that violence is responsible for the increases of within group cohesion and distrust towards people from other groups, resulting in politicization of the ethno-sectarian identities i.e. making ethno-sectarian parties more preferable than secular ones. This study is based on a unique dataset that includes civil terror casualties one year before election, the results of the four general elections of January 30th, and December 15th, 2005, March 7th, 2010 and April 30th, 2014 as well as demographic and socioeconomic indicators on the provincial level. Employing panel data analysis, the results show that Iraqi people are sensitive to violence and it has a very negative effect on vote share of secular parties. Also, terrorism has different degrees of effect on different groups. The Sunni are the most sensitive group. They change their electoral preference in response to the level of violence.

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Acknowledgement I would first like to thank my advisor Dr. Andreas Bågenholm, a Senior Lecturer and Research Fellow at the Department of Political Science at University of Gothenburg for the encouragement and all the support that he provided. The door to Bågenholms’ office was always open whenever I ran into a trouble spot or had a question about my research or writing. He consistently allowed this paper to be my own work, but guided me in the right the direction whenever.

I would also like to thank the Department of Political Science; the Quality of Government Institute who are essential part of the Master`s Programme in Political Science. I would also like to thank my colleagues from my internship at the Quality of Government Institute for their wonderful collaboration and the great support. The internship at QOG helped me greatly to develop my idea and to not lose my faith in the idea due to the lack of fata. Without their passionate support and input, this thesis could not have been successfully conducted.

I would also like to express my gratitude to United Nation Mission Assistant in Iraq, UN Development Program, High Independent Electoral Commission in Iraq, Central Statistical Organization in Iraq, Iraq Body Count, Empirical Studies of Conflict, Gulf 2000 Project Professor Jacob N. Shapiro, and PH.D. Mehrdad Izady for providing me with all necessary data to conduct this research, without them this work would never been existed.

Finally, I must express my very profound gratitude to my family and to my friends for providing me with unfailing support and continuous encouragement throughout my years of study and through the process of researching and writing this thesis. This accomplishment would not have been possible without them. Thank you.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 6 2. PREVIOUS LITERATURE ON TERRORISM AND VOTING ...... 9 2.1 Previous Literature on Terrorism and Elections ...... 9 2.2 Literature on Terrorism and ...... 12 3. THEORETICAL APPROACH ...... 15 3.1 Violence and Politicization of Ethno-Religious Identities ...... 15 3.2 Hypothesis ...... 20 4. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS OF ANALYSIS ...... 21 4.1 The Case of Iraq: Heterogeneity, Violence and Elections ...... 21 4.2 Panel Data Analysis and Official Statistics ...... 24 4.3 Data Selection and Method of Collectio