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Mortgage Lending and Macroprudential Policy in the UK and US

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Mortgage Lending and Macroprudential Policy in the UK and US Mortgage lending and macroprudential policy in the UK and US Alan Brener Queen Mary University of London Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Law 2018 !1 Statement of originality I, Alan Howard Brener, confirm that the research included within this thesis is my own work or that where it has been carried out in collaboration with, or supported by others, that this is duly acknowledged below and my contribution indicated. Previously published material is also acknowledged below. I attest that I have exercised reasonable care to ensure that the work is original, and does not to the best of my knowledge break any UK law, infringe any third party’s copyright or other Intellectual Property Right, or contain any confidential material. I accept that the College has the right to use plagiarism detection software to check the electronic version of the thesis. I confirm that this thesis has not been previously submitted for the award of a degree by this or any other university. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and no quotation from it or information derived from it may be published without the prior written consent of the author. Signature: Alan Brener Date: 14th April 2018 !2 !3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis draws on both my own experience and research over several decades in financial regulation and policy formation and implementation. It develops the thoughts and views of a number of senior officials in government, regulation, politics and the financial services industry. I am grateful for their cooperation and the frankness with which they expressed their opinions which were all provided on the understanding that they were speaking in a personal capacity and that what was said would not be attributed. I also appreciate the intellectual support of my two supervisors: Professor Rosa Lastra and Dr Costanza Russo whose knowledge, judgement and guidance have be invaluable. Abstract For many decades both UK and US politicians have encouraged homeownership supported by mortgage lending. Exuberant borrowing has fuelled housing booms and is central to many recent financial problems. As a consequence macroprudential policies have been developed to improve financial stability using a mixture of measures to deter excessive lending including loan-to-value and debt-to-income restrictions. This thesis considers macroprudential policymaking generally and, more specifically, this latter group of macroprudential measures. It concludes that it is unlikely that these measures can be used to any significant extent in western democracies. At its heart is their political legitimacy and the potential consequences for the institutions promulgating !4 such policies since a major use of these limits would have a direct and very visible effect on home ownership aspirations. Further, the evidence indicates that these measures may well be ineffective. This thesis suggests that conduct of business regulatory policy and the use of mortgage affordability verification may be more effective. However, the successful employment these measures for macroprudential purposes may be hindered by the structure of UK financial services regulation. Moreover, there is a challenge in that historically, UK conduct of business regulation has often failed. Nevertheless, in the area of mortgage affordability, there may be opportunities to use innovative regulatory policies to reduce these risks going forward. Further, there may be lessons for the UK from the US’s approach of using the concept of the “qualified mortgage” and, additionally, in considering the role of sound conduct of business policies such as those are used by the US Veterans Administration. Nevertheless, the failure to build sufficient homes over the last forty years is at the heart of UK financial instability. Macroprudential policy may have the unequal task of attempting to suppress house price booms. This raises political issues and highlights the constraints on macroprudential policy with limits on its ability to influence fiscal and socio-economic policy. This thesis seeks to influence the debate on what can be done to help to ensure financial stability. !5 !6 Table of contents Chapter 1. 10-17 Introduction Chapter 2. 18-62 Macroprudential policy: rationale, scope and issues Chapter 3. 63-102 Macroprudential policy instruments Chapter 4. 103-143 UK mortgage conduct of business regulatory policy Chapter 5. 144-170 Lessons from US mortgage conduct of business regulatory policy Chapter 6. 171-205 The political legitimacy of macroprudential policy Chapter 7. 206-225 US Federal intervention in the housing market and possible lessons from the Veterans Administration !7 Chapter 8. 226-251 The implications for macroprudential policy on UK housing policy Chapter 9. 252-255 Conclusion Appendix I: List of abbreviations Appendix II: List of individuals interviewed Bibliography !8 !9 Chapter 1 Introduction “Undone by mortgages”1 “Only by owning land will they respect the property of others”2 In 1896, the architect Hermann Muthesius joined the German embassy in London as a special attache with a brief to report on British housing. He wrote to the Grand Duke Carl Alexander of Saxe-Weimar stating "no nation has identified itself more with the house." 3 The UK, more recently has been described as a “nation bewitched by property...home- ownership still stands its ground along with weather...as Britain's public conversation of choice. House price surveys...command the front page; while the TV schedules are dominated by the generic pap of Location, Location, Location, Property Ladder, Trading Up or, for the more aspirational, Grand Designs.” 4 As seen in the quotation at the start of this chapter the great European statesman and first president of Greece identified that having a home was desirable to help ensure political stability. Home ownership has been described as “a source of personal identity and status”; providing “a sense of place and belonging”.5 It can establish both memory and hope. Over the last hundred years this has become central to UK socio-political understanding with a popular demand for housing and the security this is thought to bring. 1 Richard Brome, “The English moor”, (published 1640, University of Missouri Press, Columbia, 1984), Rashley, Act 1, Scene 1 2 Ioannis Kapodistrias, Letter to A. M. le Chevalier Eynard, February 1830, ‘Correspondence de Comte Capodistrias’, (1839), 3, Geneva, 472-473, Bibliothèque Université De Genève 3 Quoted by Tristram Hunt MP during the debate on the Housing and Planning Bill, 2nd November 2015, Hansard, column 777 4 Tristram Hunt, ‘How the English became obsessed with property’, (New Statesman, 2nd February 2004) 5 Shelley Mallett, ‘Understanding home: a critical review of the literature’, (2004),The Sociological Review, 52(1), 63–89, 66 !10 Residential housing mortgages have provided the fuel to satisfy this desire. This has been mirrored by the involvement of banks in housing finance in, for example, the US since the 1920s and in the UK from 1970s. This has changed the composition of bank lending and balance-sheets. The rapid growth in this lending was at the heart of the recent financial crisis in the UK and in a number of other countries. The consequential financial instability threatened not just the global financial system but has spread to the “real” economy and is likely to have had a significant influence on the political system.6 As a consequence, international cooperation and national initiatives have developed macroprudential policymaking to improve financial stability. These steps have both measured and highlighted risks to financial stability and implemented actions to help to reduce these risks. The latter policies broadly fall into two groups of instruments or “tools”: those that seek to reduce banking lending by increasing the cost to banks of rapidly increasing credit, and those that placed quantitative restrictions on such lending particularly for house purchases. Many of these actions mirror those employed by microprudential supervisors. In addition, both macroeconomic and fiscal policies may also have macroprudential effects. This thesis considers these aspects in relation to residential mortgages and their respective relationships and merits. It does not cover areas such as “buy-to-let” or “equity release” since these types of transactions have their own dynamics and operate in ways which are more akin to investment products. Central to this work are questions relating to the quantitative measures, such as loan-to- value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, and whether these can be used to any significant extent in western democracies and, if employed, whether they are likely to be effective. At its centre is their political legitimacy and the potential consequences for the institutions promulgating such policies. The answer, at least in part, may exist in a different area of regulation: that regulating conduct of business. The recent financial crisis revealed serious deficiencies in the conduct of mortgages sales both in the US and UK. Superficially, both responded with 6 Guillermo Cordero and Pablo Simón, ‘Economic crisis and support for democracy in Europe’, (2016) West European Politics, 39:2, 305-325, 317. See also Matthew Goodwin, ‘The Great Recession and the rise of populist Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom’ in Hanspeter Kriesi and Takkis Pappas (eds), European populism in the shadow of the great recession, (ECPR Press, Colchester, 2015), 273-286, 281-284 !11 similar sets of new regulations. However, the underlying regulatory concepts were different. The US focus is on standardising the structure of mortgages to make it easier for customers to understand and to compare mortgage offers. The UK’s approach is much more paternalistic evidencing a lack of trust in the consumer’s judgement with new regulations designed to protect the customer from themselves. Accepting that conduct of business regulation in the UK has its limitations and has suffered many substantial failures, this thesis proposes that it may still provide a more effective alternative to reliance on LTV and DTI measures to curb a mortgage lending bubble.
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