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Coal and Oil: the Dark Monarchs of Global Energy – Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and Their Importance for Futur
nam et ipsa scientia potestas est List of Papers This thesis is based on the following papers, which are referred to in the text by their Roman numerals. I Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2008) A decline rate study of Norwe- gian oil production. Energy Policy, 36(11):4262–4271 II Höök, M., Söderbergh, B., Jakobsson, K., Aleklett, K. (2009) The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour. Natural Resources Research, 18(1):39–56 III Höök, M., Hirsch, R., Aleklett, K. (2009) Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production. Energy Pol- icy, 37(6):2262–2272 IV Jakobsson, K., Söderbergh, B., Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2009) How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agen- cies? Energy Policy, 37(11):4809–4818 V Höök M, Söderbergh, B., Aleklett, K. (2009) Future Danish oil and gas export. Energy, 34(11):1826–1834 VI Aleklett K., Höök, M., Jakobsson, K., Lardelli, M., Snowden, S., Söderbergh, B. (2010) The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008. Energy Policy, 38(3):1398–1414 VII Höök M, Tang, X., Pang, X., Aleklett K. (2010) Development journey and outlook for the Chinese giant oilfields. Petroleum Development and Exploration, 37(2):237–249 VIII Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2009) Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook. International Journal of Coal Geology, 78(3):201–216 IX Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2010) Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks. Natural Re- sources Research, 19(3):189–208 X Höök, M., Zittel, W., Schindler, J., Aleklett, K. -
Prediction and Inference in the Hubbert-Deffeyes Peak Oil Model ∗
Prediction and Inference in the Hubbert-Deffeyes Peak Oil Model ∗ John R. Boycey Department of Economics University of Calgary July 2012 Abstract World oil production has grown at an annual rate of 4.86% since 1900. Yet, the Hubbert-Deffeyes `peak oil' (HDPO) model predicts that world oil production is about to enter a sustained period of decline. This paper investigates the empirical robustness of these claims. I document that the data for the HDPO model shows that the ratio of production-to-cumulative-production is decreasing in cumulative production, and that the rate of decrease is itself decreasing. The HDPO model attempts to fit a linear curve through this data. To do so, Hubbert and Deffeyes are forced to either exclude early data or to discount the validity of discoveries and reserves data. I show that an HDPO model which includes early data systematically under-predicts actual cumulative production and that the data also rejects the hypothesis that the fit is linear. These findings undermine claims that the HDPO model is capable of yielding meaningful measures of ultimately recoverable reserves. Key Words: Peak Oil, Exhaustible Resources, Exploration and Development JEL Codes: L71, Q31, Q41, O33 ∗I thank Chris Auld, Diane Bischak, Chris Bruce, Bob Cairns, Robin Carter, Ujjayant Chakravorty, Eugene Choo, Herb Emery, G´erardGaudet, Dan Gordon, James Hamilton, Mike Horn, Lutz Kilian, Dean Lueck, John Rowse, and Scott Taylor. I also thank the associate editor, James L. Smith, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. All remaining errors are my own. yProfessor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive, N.W., Calgary, Alberta, T2N 1N4, Canada. -
Keynes's Investment Theory As a Micro-Foundation for His Grandchildren
Vol. 14, 2020-24 | July 03, 2020 | http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2020-24 Keynes's investment theory as a micro-foundation for his grandchildren Sergio Nisticò Abstract In contrast with the ‘missing micro-foundations’ argument against Keynes’s macro- economics, the paper argues that it is the present state of microeconomics that needs more solid ‘Keynesian foundations’. It is in particular Keynes’s understanding of investors’ behaviour that can be fruitfully extended to consumption theory, in a context in which consumers are considered as entrepreneurs, buying goods and services to engage in time- consuming activities. The paper emphasizes that the outcome in terms of enjoyment is particularly uncertain for those innovative and path-breaking activities, which Keynes discussed in his 1930 prophetic essay about us, the grandchildren of his contemporaries. Moreover, the Keynes-inspired microeconomics suggested in the paper provides an explanation of why Keynes’s prophecy about his grandchildren possibly expanding leisure did not materialize yet. The paper finally points at the need for appropriate economic policies supporting consumers’ propensity to enforce innovative forms of time use. JEL B41 D11 D81 Keywords Keynesian microeconomics; consumption; time use; uncertainty; Keynes’s grandchildren Authors Sergio Nisticò, Creativity and Motivations Economic Research Center, Department of Economics and Law, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Italy, [email protected] Citation Sergio Nisticò (2020). Keynes's investment theory as a micro-foundation for his grandchildren. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 14 (2020-24): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2020-24 Received January 22, 2020 Published as Economics Discussion Paper February 14, 2020 Revised June 8, 2020 Accepted June 18, 2020 Published July 3, 2020 © Author(s) 2020. -
The Origins of Velocity Functions
The Origins of Velocity Functions Thomas M. Humphrey ike any practical, policy-oriented discipline, monetary economics em- ploys useful concepts long after their prototypes and originators are L forgotten. A case in point is the notion of a velocity function relating money’s rate of turnover to its independent determining variables. Most economists recognize Milton Friedman’s influential 1956 version of the function. Written v = Y/M = v(rb, re,1/PdP/dt, w, Y/P, u), it expresses in- come velocity as a function of bond interest rates, equity yields, expected inflation, wealth, real income, and a catch-all taste-and-technology variable that captures the impact of a myriad of influences on velocity, including degree of monetization, spread of banking, proliferation of money substitutes, devel- opment of cash management practices, confidence in the future stability of the economy and the like. Many also are aware of Irving Fisher’s 1911 transactions velocity func- tion, although few realize that it incorporates most of the same variables as Friedman’s.1 On velocity’s interest rate determinant, Fisher writes: “Each per- son regulates his turnover” to avoid “waste of interest” (1963, p. 152). When rates rise, cashholders “will avoid carrying too much” money thus prompting a rise in velocity. On expected inflation, he says: “When...depreciation is anticipated, there is a tendency among owners of money to spend it speedily . the result being to raise prices by increasing the velocity of circulation” (p. 263). And on real income: “The rich have a higher rate of turnover than the poor. They spend money faster, not only absolutely but relatively to the money they keep on hand. -
Toward Liberalism: Politics, Poverty, and the Emotions in the 1790S Peter Denney Griffith University
Toward Liberalism: Politics, Poverty, and the Emotions in the 1790s Peter Denney Griffith University I n the volatile atmosphere of the mid-1840s, the leading exponent of Victorian liber- alism, John Stuart Mill, published an essay in the Edinburgh Review in which he rejected the assumption that political economy encompassed a “hard-hearted, unfeeling” approach Ito the question of poverty.1 Entitled “The Claims of Labour,” a major purpose of the essay was to advocate self-help as the key to improving the condition of the laboring classes. According to Mill, the promotion of self-help was an urgent matter, for there had been a revival of the belief that the situation of the poor could be ameliorated either by charity or by the redistribution of property. It was as if people had forgotten the population theory of Thomas Robert Malthus, who, beginning in the late 1790s, argued that such schemes exacerbated the problem of poverty by discouraging the laboring classes from developing qualities like restraint and industriousness that were crucial not just to their improvement but to their survival. Radical and conservative critics alike condemned Malthus both for the bleakness of his theory and for the cold, calcu- lating attitude it seemed to endorse. While understanding such criticism, Mill dismissed these detractors as the “sentimental enemies of political economy.”2 At the same time, he insisted that political economy was compatible with sympathy, if not with sentimentality. If interpreted cor- rectly, it generated a view of the poor that mixed empirical observations with positive emotions, producing a sense of optimism regarding the future of the laboring classes. -
The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty (1623-1687): Never Translated Into Spanish Language
518297-LLP-2011-IT-ERASMUS-FEXI THE ECONOMIC WRITINGS OF SIR WILLIAM PETTY (1623-1687): NEVER TRANSLATED INTO SPANISH LANGUAGE VICTORIA CORREA MERLASSINO DEPARTMENT OF HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT – UNIVERSITY OF BARCELONA BARCELONA , SPAIN [email protected] ABSTRACT The aim of this paper is to outline the fact that the economic writings of Sir William Petty were never translated into Spanish. Although Petty contributes meaningfully to the economic thought, his works did not arrive to Spain in our language, that means that his ideas were not widely extended in our country or they arrived under the writings and citations of other authors. Another remarkable aspect related to William Petty to point out is, that the writings of some other theorist, philosophers, scientist contemporaneous to him were indeed translated into Spanish. This is the case of Thomas Hobbes, Francis Bacon, Thomas Mun and John Locke. On the other hand, Petty’s thought was based, in few points, on the ideas of some of the; especially on T. Hobbs and F. Bacon. Last but not least, this paper will contain a summary of his most important contributions for the economic thought described in ‘A treatise of Taxes and Contributions (1662)’, ‘Verburn Sapienti (1665)’, ‘Political Arithmetick (1676)’ and ‘Treatise of Ireland (1687)’. William Petty had a long-continued writing activity. His first essays are dated in 1662 and he carried on writing until his death in 1687. He wrote before the formal treatises on political economy were long extended. His writings were far from the systematized abstraction about every-days affairs. He was a man interested in the theory as well as the experimentation. -
Why Standard Measures of Human Capital Are Misleading
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Hanushek, Eric A. Article Why Standard Measures of Human Capital are Misleading KDI Journal of Economic Policy Provided in Cooperation with: Korea Development Institute (KDI), Sejong Suggested Citation: Hanushek, Eric A. (2015) : Why Standard Measures of Human Capital are Misleading, KDI Journal of Economic Policy, ISSN 2586-4130, Korea Development Institute (KDI), Sejong, Vol. 37, Iss. 2, pp. 22-37, http://dx.doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2015.37.2.22 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/200770 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ www.econstor.eu KDI Journal of Economic Policy 2015, 37(2): 22–39 Why Standard Measures of † Human Capital are Misleading By ERIC A. -
Marginal Revolution
MARGINAL REVOLUTION It took place in the later half of the 19th century Stanley Jevons in England, Carl Menger in Austria and Leon walras at Lausanne, are generally regarded as the founders of marginalist school Hermann Heinrich Gossen of Germany is considered to be the anticipator of the marginalist school The term ‘Marginal Revolution’ is applied to the writings of the above economists because they made fundamental changes in the apparatus of economic analysis They started looking at some of the important economic problems from an altogether new angle different from that of classical economists Marginal economists has been used to analyse the single firm and its behavior, the market for a single product and the formation of individual prices Marginalism dominated Western economic thought for nearly a century until it was challenged by Keynesian attack in 1936 (keynesian economics shifted the sphere of enquiry from micro economics to macro economics where the problems of the economy as a whole are analysed) The provocation for the emergence of marginalist school was provided by the interpretation of classical doctrines especially the labour theory of value and ricardian theory of rent by the socialists Socialists made use of classical theories to say things which were not the intention of the creators of those theories So the leading early marginalists felt the need for thoroughly revising the classical doctrines especially the theory of value They thought by rejecting the labour theory of value and by advocating the marginal utility theory of value, they could strike at the theoretical basis of socialism Economic Ideas of Marginalist School This school concentrated on the ‘margin’ to explain economic phenomena. -
Energy As a Factor of Production: Historical Roots in the American Institutionalist Context Antoine Missemer, Franck Nadaud
Energy as a Factor of Production: Historical Roots in the American Institutionalist Context Antoine Missemer, Franck Nadaud To cite this version: Antoine Missemer, Franck Nadaud. Energy as a Factor of Production: Historical Roots in the American Institutionalist Context. Energy Economics, Elsevier, 2020, 86, pp.104706. 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104706. halshs-02467734 HAL Id: halshs-02467734 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02467734 Submitted on 26 Feb 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. - Authors’s post-print - - published in Energy Economics (2020), 86, 104706 - ENERGY AS A FACTOR OF PRODUCTION: HISTORICAL ROOTS IN THE AMERICAN INSTITUTIONALIST CONTEXT - * Antoine MISSEMER † Franck NADAUD - Full reference: MISSEMER, Antoine and NADAUD, Franck. 2020. “Energy as a Factor of Production: Historical Roots in the American Institutionalist Context”. Energy Economics, 86, 104706. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104706] The pagination of the published version is indicated in the margin. - Abstract The relationship between energy and economic output is today discussed through the decoupling issue. A pioneering historical attempt to measure this relationship can be found in contributions by F. G. Tryon et al. at the Brookings Institution in the 1920s-1930s, in the American institutionalist context. -
Revisiting Friedrich Nietzsche and William Petty
Continental Thought & Theory CT&T A journal of intellectual freedom Volume 1 | Issue 2: Debt and Value 306-332 | ISSN: 2463-333X On the Origins of Modern Debt and Value: Revisiting Friedrich Nietzsche and William Petty Philip Goodchild Abstract: The pursuit of self-interest can lead to market failure when there is a lack of trust. Where Hume and Nietzsche located the origin of trust in the capacity to make promises - debts conceived in terms of values – this article explores the origins of modern distrust and its concomitant pursuit of self- interest. Examining the market economies of the 16th and 17th centuries in England, one finds these were characterised by a shortage of coins so had to rely effectively on trust. Wealth consisted largely of ‘credit’ or trustworthiness, for this was the basis for access to goods and services with a promise of later payment. As such, wealth was not a possession but a reputation, and the pursuit of reputation took precedence over the pursuit of possessions. Since default on a debt could easily spread by contagion, the basis for collective welfare was personal morality. The key question, then, is how this conception of credit came to be replaced by one equivalent to debt, given a precise value and time for repayment. It will be argued that in this context the best way to prove one’s creditworthiness was to pay on time with the debt issued by a sound institution such as the Bank of England or the Exchequer. The financial revolution in England had the effect of turning the pursuit of ‘credit’ into the pursuit of http://ctt.canterbury.ac.nz CONTINENTAL THOUGHT & THEORY: A JOURNAL OF INTELLECTUAL FREEDOM Volume 1, Issue 2: Debt and Value wealth, where debts assumed the money functions of means of payment, unit of account, and store of value. -
Evolution and Refinement of the Concept of Supply and Demand from Cournot to Marshall Ray Mcdermott
Evolution and Refinement of the Concept of Supply and Demand from Cournot to Marshall Ray McDermott Table of Contents Page Introduction 1 John Stuart Mill 2 Augustin Cournot 5 J. H. von Thunen 7 Hermann Heinrich Gossen 8 Fleeming Jenkin 10 William Stanley Jevons 13 Carl Menger 19 Leon Walras 21 Aspects of Marginal Theory as set by Jevons, Menger and Walras 28 Rudolf Auspitz and Richard Lieben 47 Alfred Marshall 52 Conclusion 66 Bibliography 67 ALUMNI MEMORIAL LIBRARY Creighton University Omaha; Nebraika 65178 fc v 385843 “ *** '••v.i-fii. Evolution and Refinement of the Concept of Supply and Demand from Cournot to Marshall The law of supply and demand can be restated in mathematical language. Fleeming Jenkin did this. As one looks at the correspondence between the economists of an eighty year period (Cournot to Marshall), thinking can be clarified on the discussion of supply and demand. Relationships are shown between these economists. There are similar ities as well as differences in their thinking. Disagreements on terminology pertaining to utility theory is evident between Jevons, Walras, and Menger. Priority on thoughts about utility was claimed and disputed between Jevons and Walras. Marshall was annoyed by Jevons* theory. Marshall, Walras, and Mill were all directed by their fathers in the classics. Lecturing at various universities was common for Jevons, Marshall, Walras, and Menger. Some however were not trained economists. Examples of these were Jenkin, Cournot, and von Thunen. Jevons, Menger, and Walras were the founders of the Marginal Utility School. The economists are not discussed according to the chronological time in which they lived. -
Why to Worry About the Wealth of Nations: Technological Unemployment, Unequal Distribution and Secular Stagnation
Why to Worry about the Wealth of Nations: Technological Unemployment, Unequal Distribution and Secular Stagnation Timon Scheuer October 14, 2016 Abstract Persistent unemployment challenges politics of today. The cure commonly prescribed is economic growth. While technological progress should still provide the necessary productivity gains, their interdepen- dency to the role allocation of private capitalism may also be an ori- gin or at least a magnifier of stagnation in the first place. In order to investigate these interdependencies the paper takes a system per- spective. Within a correspondingly aggregate model technical change affects needs of consumers, expectations of producers and productivity in different ways. Applying a corresponding set of equations in discrete time steps then allows for simulations of exemplary scenarios. In ab- sence of public interventions and institutions the stability of the system and its growth path strongly depends on the mixture of process and product innovation. If the latter fails to overcome temporary limita- tions of needs and expectations, the lack of demand may induce a loop of unemployment and stagnation. This risk increases with disparity, which itself may be triggered by certain forms of technical change in the first place. PROCEEDING OF A PRELIMINARY PRESENTED AT THE YOUNG ECONOMIST CONFERENCE 1 1 Introduction Social scientists know the name of Adam Smith (1776, [2006]) and his fa- mous `Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations`. He may even be seen as the father of economic liberalism emphasizing the role of spreading market interactions, the division of labour and the accumula- tion of capital in order to achieve productivity gains and boost economic growth (Sturn, 2008, pp.