The Revenge of Political Arithmetick. Economic Statistics and Political Purpose Fickle Formulas Working Paper 2-2019. Daniel K. Mügge University of Amsterdam May 2019 2 The Revenge of Political Arithmetick. Economic Statistics and Political Purpose1 Daniel K. Mügge Department of Political Science University of Amsterdam
[email protected] Last update: 20 May 2019 ABSTRACT. Contemporary governance is thoroughly quantified, and in no policy field more so than economic policy. The numbers on which economic debates draw present themselves as objective, technocratic data, above the everyday tussle of politics. At the same time, governance by the numbers has increasingly come under fire in recent years. In the extreme, critics decry statistics as just another opinion or manipulation devices. I argue that both the excessive trust and the excessive skepticism are unjustified, and that both betray an a-historical understanding of the macroeconomic statistics that surround us today. In response, this article offers a truncated history of central economic indicators, which measure inflation, unemployment, economic growth and international economic exchange. It shows how these metrics have been infused with political purpose, and hence bias, from the very start. This account builds on the abundant scholarship about the history of statistics, all the way back to William Petty’s Political Arithmetick in the 17th century. Modern day evidence- based policy and statistics-based research have forgotten – or consciously ignore – their roots in openly normative political projects. I therefore propose to see and study economic statistics as a form of political arithmetic 2.0. Cognizant of economic statistics’ historical baggage, we can heed the biases they may harbor and better put governance by numbers in its place.