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Research & Forecast Report Q3 2017

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Research & Forecast Report Q3 2017 Research & Forecast Report TAMPA Accelerating success. Q3 2017 | Multifamily Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Sep-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,110 $1,112 $1,129 $1,144 $1,147 $1,043 $1,101 $1,131 $1,158 $1,193 $1,240 $1,279 Per Sq. Ft $1.18 $1.18 $1.20 $1.21 $1.21 $1.10 $1.17 $1.20 $1.23 $1.26 $1.31 $1.35 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 4.0% 3.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.4% 3.1% 3.9% 3.1% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 1.3% Occupancy Rate 94.7% 94.9% 95.0% 95.2% 95.1% 95.5% 95.3% 95.0% 94.6% 95.0% 95.3% 94.9% Occupancy Change - Annually -0.9% -0.7% -0.6% -0.2% -0.1% 0.7% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% 0.4% 0.3% -0.4% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-6.40 $-7.11 $-5.48 $-4.02 $-3.73 $-3.74 $-4.46 As a % of Asking Rent -0.6% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4% RECENT SALES Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Oct-17 The Commons 3408 Lancaster Ct Egypt Lake- 200 1972 24,050,000.00 120,250 Leto Oct-17 Seneca at Cypress Creek 1810 Sweetbroom Cir Wesley Chapel 451 2010 78,865,000.00 174,867 Sep-17 The Preserve at Mobbly 8210 Solano Bay Loop Tampa 316 2000 / 2008 47,000,000.00 148,734 Bay Aug-17 Sanctuary at Highland 10246 Douglas Oak Cir Brandon 456 2002 70,000,000.00 153,509 Oaks Aug-17 Northgreen at Carrollwood 3831 Northgreen Ave Tampa 438 1986 / 2017 63,688,262.00 145,407 Aug-17 Boardwalk at Morris 8800 Boardwalk Dr Tampa 146 2001 / 2006 27,400,000.00 187,671 Bridge Apts Jul-17 Element 812 N Franklin St Tampa 395 2008 118,500,000.00 300,000 Jul-17 Fountainwood Manor 2810 University Sq Tampa 79 1980 / 1998 4,800,000.00 60,759 Jul-17 Gateway on 4th 501 116th Ave N Saint 304 1975 / 2013 32,882,000.00 108,164 Apartments Petersburg Jul-17 Oaks at Temple Terrace 5518 Terrace Ct Temple Terrace 128 1970 / 2005 8,850,000.00 69,141 Jul-17 Columns at East Bay 3660 E Bay Dr Largo 196 1986 20,300,000.00 103,571 Jul-17 Hamlin at Lake Brandon 1508 Ladora Dr Brandon 360 2003 60,000,000.00 166,667 Apartments Jun-17 Venue at North Campus 13702 N 42nd St Tampa 148 2012 33,654,110.40 227,393 Jun-17 Sunstone Palms 2225 E 131st Ave Tampa 536 1975 . 1995 41,700,000.00 77,799 Jun-17 Wind Tree 8540 Congress St Port Richey 324 1978 8,250,000.00 25,463 Jun-17 The Lakes at Port Richey 8228 Chasco Woods Blvd New Port 288 1986 / 2016 29,001,600.00 100,700 Richey Jun-17 Pearce at Pavilion 3603 Pavilion Palms Cir Riverview 250 2016 49,927,791.70 199,711 May-17 Aarans Walk 13101 Aarans Pond Dr Tampa 109 1972 5,362,650.00 49,199 Condominiums (bulk cond) May-17 St Charles Row 1175 Pinellas Point Dr S Saint 368 1972 / 1997 37,465,000.00 101,807 Petersburg May-17 Enclave At Wesley Chapel 1930 Devonwood Dr Wesley Chapel 312 2005 / 2016 52,500,000.00 168,269 May-17 The Park At Aberdeen 2902 Sycamore Ct Tampa 320 1972 / 2008 24,100,000.00 75,313 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area was 3.1% in August 2017, reflecting 39,600 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.5%. Axiometrics forecasts Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.0% in 2018, with 26,405 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.9% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 25,804 jobs added each year. On the supply side, permits for 5,568 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in August 2017, down -764 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 18,046 units were permitted in the 12 months ending August 2017, an increase of 866 units from the prior year’s total. Market Employment and Permitting Annual August-17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Employment (000s) 1,208.4 1,250.9 1,296.8 1,336.5 146,541.0 1,333.0 1,359.4 1,383.9 1,411.7 1,436.8 Job Gain (000s) 32.0 42.5 45.9 39.6 2,100.0 36.2 26.4 24.6 27.8 25.1 Job Growth (%) 2.7% 3.5% 3.7% 3.1% 1.5% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% Total Residential Permitting 12,427 15,283 17,180 16,581 1,120,198 20,109 21,102 19,061 18,147 20,447 Relative Change 3.4% 23.0% 12.4% 10.7% 6.1% 17.0% 4.9% -9.7% -4.8% 12.7% Single Family Units Permitted 7,269 9,046 10,683 11,209 723,217 Relative Change -0.8% 24.4% 18.1% 19.2% 9.8% Multifamily Units Permitted 4,896 6,044 6,332 5,286 364,705 Relative Change 9.8% 23.4% 4.8% -2.6% -1.0% Multifamily as a % of Total 39.4% 39.5% 36.9% 31.9% 32.6% Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.7 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.0 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.4 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.2 Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.2 8.7 7.6 7.3 5.7 Multifamily Absorption and Supply Annual 3Q17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Total Units Absorbed 6,710 5,626 1,731 3,996 350,478 5,371 3,517 5,461 4,047 1,657 New Supply 4,012 3,987 4,704 5,325 387,002 5,416 4,746 4,026 3,204 3,869 Inventory Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3 IDENTIFIED SUPPLY As of October 15, 2017, Axiometrics has identified 4,770 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, of which, 3,538 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 3,231 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,686 per unit, or $1.71 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,604, or $1.63 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-82.40. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,148 per unit ($1.22 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,144 per unit, or $1.21 per square foot, in 3Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-4.02. Submarket Delivery Schedule Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central Tampa 768 799 2,397 3,964 1,192 15 $2,018 $2.03 $1,876 $1.89 Clearwater 379 47 360 786 101 9 $1,393 $1.67 $1,330 $1.60 North St. Petersburg 278 253 531 301 18 $1,621 $1.58 $1,532 $1.50 South Hillsborough County 260 250 366 876 197 15 $1,411 $1.43 $1,364 $1.38 University North 144 418 562 372 18 $1,388 $1.36 $1,287 $1.26 Other 2,136 1,713 976 4,825 989 12 $1,545 $1.57 $1,505 $1.53 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3,543 3,231 4,770 11,544 3,152 14 $1,697 $1.72 $1,606 $1.63 *Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4 PIPELINE MAP GREATER TAMPA 59 37 14 38 54 35 33 11 77 75 60 4 61 20 32 30 13 53 69 Downtown 18 78 34 Tampa 15 46 25 50 74 12 36 24 40 51 73 71 39 72 19 1 70 49 48 68 27 6 67 63 26 7 65 55 Key 6629 Lease-Up Under Construction Proposed DOWNTOWN TAMPA SARASOTA 64 2 31 52 21 58 47 57 28 56 3 10 76 5 22 23 43 45 17 44 9 8 41 16 62 42 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5 PIPELINE DETAIL # Name Status Owner Address Market Units Lease Up 1 Peridot Palms Lease Up Parkland Development Corporation 10601 Gandy Blvd N Brighton Bay 381 2 Grady Square Lease Up Wisdom Development Group, Inc.
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