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Research & Forecast Report Q3 2016

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Research & Forecast Report Q3 2016 Research & Forecast Report TAMPA Accelerating success. Q3 2016 | Multifamily Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Sep-16 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,076 $1,085 $1,110 $1,126 $1,120 $991 $1,051 $1,111 $1,151 $1,181 $1,217 $1,262 Per Sq. Ft $1.13 $1.14 $1.17 $1.19 $1.19 $1.04 $1.11 $1.17 $1.21 $1.25 $1.28 $1.33 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 6.9% 6.6% 6.5% 5.6% 4.9% 3.3% 6.1% 5.7% 3.6% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.9% 0.9% 2.3% 1.5% Occupancy Rate 95.6% 95.5% 95.5% 95.4% 95.2% 94.8% 95.5% 95.5% 95.0% 94.7% 95.0% 95.3% Occupancy Change - Annually 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% -0.3% -0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% -0.5% -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.1% -0.1% 0.1% -0.1% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-3.40 $-4.53 $-3.60 $-3.23 $-3.18 $-8.64 $-3.74 As a % of Asking Rent -0.3% -0.4% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.9% -0.4% Q3 SALES Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Sep-16 TGM Ibis Walk 871 Ibis Walk Pl N Saint 401 2014 68,000,000 169,576 Petersburg Sep-16 District on Clearwater 3021 State Rd 590 Clearwater 222 1991 / 1997 28,750,000 129,505 Sep-16 Riverside Palms 5008 Sierra Pl Tampa 351 1974 / 2013 19,000,000 54,131 Sep-16 Camden Lakes Phase I & 11401 Doctor M L K Jr St N Saint 688 1983 80,850,000 117,515 Phase II Petersburg Sep-16 Las Villas Apartments 1503 E 142nd Ave Tampa 50 1974 / 1993 2,700,000 54,000 Sep-16 Tampa Commons 5718 Las Ventanas Dr Tampa 42 2008 4,352,500 103,631 Sep-16 Pasco Woods 6050 Ryerson Cir Wesley Chapel 200 2000 15,308,190 76,541 Sep-16 Park Springs 300 Park Springs Cir Plant City 200 2000 / 2007 13,100,000 65,500 Sep-16 Landmark at Largo Crossing 305 Glades Cir Largo 304 1974 / 2011 23,150,000 76,151 Sep-16 Green Oaks of Interbay 6817 Interbay Blvd Tampa 100 1986 / 2012 6,400,000 64,000 Sep-16 The Villas of Bayshore 2307 S Clewis Ct Tampa 20 1958 / 1996 3,420,000 171,000 Sep-16 Park East 14609 Banyan Bluff Dr Tampa 192 1987 17,500,000 91,146 Sep-16 Palm River 710 Palm Bay Dr Tampa 70 1986 3,250,000 46,429 Sep-16 Puritan Place 7903 Holly Lea Ct Tampa 232 1973 11,045,202 47,609 Sep-16 Rivertree Landing 6909 Indian River Dr Tampa 228 1974 / 2004 10,854,767 47,609 Sep-16 Laurel Chase 1426 Marathon Key Dr Tampa 122 1968 4,875,000 39,959 Aug-16 The Place at Davis Island 401 Danube Ave Tampa 40 1972 5,000,000 125,000 Aug-16 Woodland Oaks 4201 49th St N Saint 92 1987 6,350,000 69,022 Apartments Petersburg Aug-16 Bay Isle Key Apartments 11850 Dr Martin Luther King Saint 582 1998 / 2004 93,750,000 161,082 St Petersburg Aug-16 Tampa Woods 5207 Belle Chase Cir Tampa 444 1985 58,000,000 130,631 Aug-16 The Mirasol 84 Davis Blvd Tampa 58 1925 / 1996 10,375,000 178,879 Aug-16 Sun Garden 4000 58th St N Saint 50 1966 3,600,000 72,000 Petersburg Jul-16 Arbor Lakes 6161 Memorial Hwy Tampa 356 1979 / 2009 28,250,000 79,354 Jul-16 The Enclave at Tranquility 9707 Tranquility Lake Cir Riverview 348 2010 48,750,000 140,086 Lake Jul-16 Westbury at Lake Brandon 1210 Westbury Pointe Dr Brandon 366 2002 49,600,000 135,519 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area was 3.1% in August 2016, reflecting 38,200 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.7%. Axiometrics forecasts Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.4% in 2017, with 30,288 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 2.0% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 27,246 jobs added each year. On the supply side, permits for 5,626 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in August 2016, down -418 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 16,484 units were permitted in the 12 months ending August 2016, an increase of 1,201 units from the prior year’s total. Market Employment and Permitting Annual August-16 Annual Forecast 2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Employment (000s) 1,176.5 1,208.4 1,249.5 1,287.6 144,424.0 1,289.0 1,319.3 1,341.6 1,367.7 1,401.0 Job Gain (000s) 27.7 32.0 41.0 38.2 2,451.0 39.5 30.3 22.3 26.1 33.3 Job Growth (%) 2.4% 2.7% 3.4% 3.1% 1.7% 3.2% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 2.4% Total Residential Permitting 12,024 12,427 15,283 15,161 1,056,185 18,351 19,476 21,887 20,028 19,434 Relative Change 18.3% 3.4% 23.0% 14.2% 2.3% 20.1% 6.1% 12.4% -8.5% -3.0% Single Family Units Permitted 7,325 7,269 9,046 9,574 658,713 Relative Change 24.5% -0.8% 24.4% 23.5% 9.1% Multifamily Units Permitted 4,460 4,896 6,044 5,431 368,231 Relative Change 7.9% 9.8% 23.4% 3.3% -8.2% Multifamily as a % of Total 37.1% 39.4% 39.5% 35.8% 34.9% Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.7 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.7 Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.7 4.4 5.6 4.9 4.1 Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 6.7 7.2 8.4 7.3 6.1 Multifamily Absorption and Supply Annual 3Q16 Annual Forecast 2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Total Units Absorbed 3,663 6,632 5,640 4,040 274,353 4,385 1,038 4,169 5,133 4,048 New Supply 3,717 4,012 3,987 3,658 367,859 4,558 3,956 4,747 4,026 3,204 Inventory Growth 0.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3 IDENTIFIED SUPPLY As of October 16, 2016, Axiometrics has identified 3,565 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2016, of which, 1,945 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 3,550 apartment units delivered in 2015. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,519 per unit, or $1.57 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,485, or $1.54 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-33.21. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,130 per unit ($1.19 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,126 per unit, or $1.19 per square foot, in 3Q16. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-3.23. Submarket Delivery Schedule Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent Top Submarkets 2014 2015 2016 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central St. Petersburg 375 260 408 1,043 125 15 $2,470 $2.24 $2,470 $2.24 Central Tampa 1,206 772 1,196 3,174 571 12 $1,699 $1.93 $1,628 $1.85 Clearwater 240 379 297 916 260 21 $1,446 $1.52 $1,421 $1.50 North St. Petersburg 651 278 929 132 16 $1,523 $1.39 $1,488 $1.36 Pasco County 421 421 374 1,216 276 13 $1,311 $1.21 $1,311 $1.21 Other 1,304 1,718 1,012 4,034 776 11 $1,348 $1.36 $1,321 $1.33 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 4,197 3,550 3,565 11,312 2,140 12 $1,530 $1.58 $1,496 $1.54 *Based on 2016 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period “We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of interest in our 3 assets. The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They have a talented group who was a pleasure to work with. Their performance stands out against any of the groups we work with nationally.” Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4 PIPELINE MAP GREATER TAMPA 33 6 2 29 61 24 47 48 50 34 39 10 35 7 12 54 44 70 13 59 69 Downtown 56 41 Tampa 36 4 16 68 5 57 15 37 67 26 11 3 30 51 23 60 1 53 Key 64 Lease-Up Under Construction Proposed DOWNTOWN TAMPA SARASOTA 20 55 21 66 71 19 28 42 43 52 18 27 63 45 46 38 22 25 14 49 62 17 31 8 65 40 9 32 58 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P.
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