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Research & Forecast Report Q4 2017

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Research & Forecast Report Q4 2017 Research & Forecast Report TAMPA Accelerating success. Q4 2017 | Multifamily Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dec-17 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,117 $1,134 $1,149 $1,148 $1,144 $1,047 $1,106 $1,137 $1,168 $1,202 $1,248 $1,285 Per Sq. Ft $1.18 $1.20 $1.21 $1.21 $1.21 $1.11 $1.17 $1.20 $1.23 $1.27 $1.32 $1.36 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 3.3% 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% 3.3% 6.0% 5.6% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 3.8% 3.0% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.2% 1.5% 1.3% -0.1% Occupancy Rate 94.8% 95.0% 95.1% 94.9% 94.9% 95.4% 95.2% 95.0% 94.7% 95.0% 95.3% 95.0% Occupancy Change - Annually -0.7% -0.6% -0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-7.19 $-5.49 $-4.01 $-5.33 $-7.78 $-3.74 $-4.46 As a % of Asking Rent -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.5% -0.7% -0.4% -0.4% RECENT SALES Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Dec-17 Landmark at Savoy Square 2065 N Highland Ave Clearwater 182 1970 / 2009 17,836,000.00 98,000 Dec-17 Urban Style Flats 300 10th St S St. Petersburg 481 1971 / 2015 46,250,000.00 96,154 Dec-17 Havana Square 400 N Rome Ave Tampa 274 2017 58,088,000.00 212,000 Dec-17 Oakbrook Village 2225 Nursery Rd Clearwater 281 1970 / 2002 25,800,000.00 91,815 Dec-17 Lantower Brandon 10440 Sanderling Shores Dr Brandon 450 2016 94,000,000.00 208,889 Crossroads Dec-17 Colonial Village 3404 W Marlin Ave Tampa 220 13,700,000.00 62,273 Dec-17 Jasmine Terrace 1250 Skipper Rd University 320 1973 / 1983 14,880,000.00 46,500 Nov-17 Coachman Club 650-730 Old Coachman Rd Clearwater 72 1985 8,200,000.00 113,889 Nov-17 Tortuga Pointe 10475 Gandy Blvd N St. Petersburg 295 2010 48,000,000.00 162,712 Oct-17 The Retreat at Crosstown 10301 Marsh Harbor Way Brandon 320 1984 / 2002 37,250,000.00 116,406 Oct-17 Twenty 35 Apartments 2035 Phillippe Pkwy Safety Harbor 200 1974 / 2001 21,000,000.00 105,000 Oct-17 Bay Point 11431 Cockle Dr Port Richey 112 1985 / 1998 6,525,000.00 58,259 Oct-17 Park At Windsor 4949 Marbrisa Dr Carrollwood 224 1984 / 2001 26,500,000.00 118,304 Oct-17 Element 812 N Franklin St Tampa 395 2008 112,450,000.00 284,684 Oct-17 Seneca at Cypress Creek 1810 Sweetbroom Cir Wesley Chapel 451 2010 78,865,000.00 174,867 Oct-17 The Commons 3408 Lancaster Ct Egypt Lake- 200 1972 / 1996 24,050,000.00 120,250 Leto Oct-17 Brittany 3814 Euclid Ave Tampa 71 1969 / 2012 8,050,000.00 113,380 Oct-17 Colonial Oak 5255 62nd St N Kenneth City 60 1969 / 1981 4,915,000.00 81,917 Oct-17 Brittany 3814 Euclid Ave Tampa 71 1969 8,050,000 101,807 Oct-17 Colonial Oak 5255 62nd St N Kenneth City 60 1969 4,915,000 168,269 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2 SUPPLY AND DEMAND According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area was 2.3% in November 2017, reflecting 30,600 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.4%. Axiometrics forecasts Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.8% in 2018, with 24,285 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.7% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 24,080 jobs added each year. On the supply side, permits for 4,759 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2017, down -1,573 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 17,656 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2017, an increase of 476 units from the prior year’s total. Market Employment and Permitting Annual November-17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Employment (000s) 1,208.4 1,250.9 1,296.8 1,355.5 148,507.0 1,331.4 1,355.7 1,377.8 1,404.6 1,427.9 Job Gain (000s) 32.0 42.5 45.9 30.6 2,114.0 34.6 24.3 22.0 26.9 23.3 Job Growth (%) 2.7% 3.5% 3.7% 2.3% 1.4% 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% Total Residential Permitting 12,427 15,283 17,180 16,629 1,155,517 18,031 16,263 18,107 20,890 18,764 Relative Change 3.4% 23.0% 12.4% 3.2% 6.3% 5.0% -9.8% 11.3% 15.4% -10.2% Single Family Units Permitted 7,269 9,046 10,683 11,816 756,569 Relative Change -0.8% 24.4% 18.1% 20.1% 10.2% Multifamily Units Permitted 4,896 6,044 6,332 4,735 366,148 Relative Change 9.8% 23.4% 4.8% -22.5% -1.3% Multifamily as a % of Total 39.4% 39.5% 36.9% 28.5% 31.7% Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.7 3.4 3.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.4 5.8 5.1 3.1 3.1 Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.2 8.7 7.6 5.0 5.7 Multifamily Absorption and Supply Annual 4Q17 Annual Forecast 2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Total Units Absorbed 6,713 5,620 1,730 5,284 367,785 5,203 3,615 5,459 3,565 1,426 New Supply 4,012 3,987 4,704 4,646 365,158 4,646 5,283 4,025 2,699 3,264 Inventory Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0% COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3 IDENTIFIED SUPPLY As of January 15, 2018, Axiometrics has identified 4,495 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, which all units have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 3,231 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,739 per unit, or $1.78 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,641, or $1.68 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-98.09. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,153 per unit ($1.22 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,148 per unit, or $1.21 per square foot, in 4Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-5.33. Submarket Delivery Schedule Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central Tampa 768 799 2,232 3,799 1,278 14 $2,045 $2.09 $1,884 $1.93 Clearwater 379 47 278 704 134 11 $1,400 $1.68 $1,303 $1.56 North St. Petersburg 48 288 336 108 18 $1,403 $1.54 $1,359 $1.49 South Hillsborough County 260 250 292 802 231 18 $1,386 $1.41 $1,315 $1.34 University North 144 418 562 398 20 $1,422 $1.41 $1,339 $1.33 Other 2,136 1,943 987 5,066 985 12 $1,629 $1.64 $1,587 $1.60 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3,543 3,231 4,495 11,269 3,134 14 $1,749 $1.79 $1,646 $1.69 *Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4 PIPELINE MAP GREATER TAMPA7 46 47 41 39 42 35 43 12 38 20 29 37 52 55 21 49 40 28 13 Downtown 30 Tampa 24 44 17 16 57 23 51 34 15 31 1456 22 25 Downtown St. Petersburg Key 8 Lease-Up Under Construction Proposed DOWNTOWN TAMPA DOWNTOWN 1 ST. PETERSBURG 5 45 10 2 32 50 33 54 53 9 18 36 48 26 11 27 6 3 19 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5 PIPELINE DETAIL # Name Status Owner Address Market Units Proposed 1 First North Lofts Proposed DevMar Development, LLC 1636 2nd St N Historic Old Northeast MF 214 2 Grand Bohemian Apartments Proposed Greenfield Partners LLC N 2nd St Downtown St Petersburg 306 MF 3 211 3rd St S Proposed American Land Ventures 211 3rd St S Downtown St Petersburg 201 MF 4 Proposed MF/Office Proposed Skyway Capital Partners 2907 W Bay to Bay Blvd Bayshore Gardens/Palma 125 Ce 5 MetWest Apartments Proposed MetLife, Inc.
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