The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rabasa, Angel. Columbian labyrinth : the synergy of drugs and insurgency and its implications for regional stability / Angel M. Rabasa, Peter Chalk. p. cm. “MR-1339.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2994-0 1. National security—Colombia. 2. Colombia—Strategic aspects. 3. National security—Latin America. 4. Colombia—Politics and government—1974– 5. Insurgency—Colombia—History—20th century. 6. Guerrillas—Colombia— History—20th century. 7. Drug traffic—Colombia—History—20th century. 8. United States—Military relations—Colombia. 9. Colombia—Military relations— United States. I. Chalk, Peter. II. Title. UA625 .R33 2001 986.106'35—dc21 2001031639 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark.RAND’s publications do not necessarily lectref the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2001 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2001 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 102, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: [email protected] PREFACE Drug trafficking and political disintegration in Colombia could con- front the United States, if present trends continue, with the most se- rious foreign and security policy crisis in the Western Hemisphere since the Central American wars of the 1980s. The first question is why Colombia matters. U.S. policy toward Colombia has been driven to a large extent by counter-narcotics considerations, but the situation in that South American country is a national security as much as a drug policy problem. Colombia is a strategically important country. It is South America’s fourth largest country in area and the second largest in population. It is the only South American country with coastlines on both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and it is con- tiguous to the Caribbean basin, Central America, Venezuela and its oil fields, and Panama and the Canal. Colombia also has some of the largest untapped petroleum reserves in the Western Hemisphere. Colombia’s trajectory will also influence the direction of broader trends in the unstable Andean region and beyond. This study, conducted in Project AIR FORCE’s Strategy and Doctrine Program, examines • the sources of instability in Colombia; • the objectives, strategies, strengths, and weaknesses of the major Colombian actors—government, guerrillas, and paramilitaries— and the balance of forces among them; and • the impact of the U.S. assistance program. iii iv Colombian Labyrinth The study concludes with possible scenarios for Colombia and the implications of these scenarios for the security and stability of neigh- boring states and U.S. regional security interests. This research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO), and the Director of Strategic Planning, U.S. Air Force (AF/XPX). It is part of a larger study, entitled “New Challenges for the U.S. Air Force,” that reviews “off-baseline” scenarios and threats—those receiving little attention in the defense community—for the purpose of identifying weak links in potential U.S. Air Force operations. Concurrent research is exam- ining potential vulnerabilities and remedies in the deployment and employment of aerospace forces. This report should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in Latin America and the future of hemispheric relations. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the authors or to the project leader, David Shlapak. Research was completed in January 2001. PROJECT AIR FORCE Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the United States Air Force’s Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with in- dependent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aero- space Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... ix Tables .......................................... xi Summary ....................................... xiii Acknowledgments ................................. xxi Acronyms ....................................... xxiii Map Chapter One INTRODUCTION: SOURCES OF INSTABILITY ........ 1 Political Trends ................................ 2 Economic Trends .............................. 4 Social Trends ................................. 6 Roadmap to the Report .......................... 8 Chapter Two THE ILLEGAL DRUG TRADE ...................... 11 Scope and Dimensions .......................... 11 The Main Players ............................... 14 Impact of Drug Trade on Colombia and the Region ..... 16 Impact of the Drug Trade on U.S. Interests ............ 18 The U.S. Response .............................. 20 Chapter Three ORIGINS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE GUERRILLAS ... 23 The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) ... 23 v vi Colombian Labyrinth The National Liberation Army (ELN) ................ 30 Other Guerrilla Groups .......................... 31 Sources of Guerrilla Income: Links to the Drug Trade ... 32 Other Sources of Guerrilla Income .................. 33 The Arms Pipeline .............................. 35 Supporting Networks and Information-Age Warfare ..... 37 Chapter Four GUERRILLA STRATEGY ......................... 39 Grand Strategy ................................ 39 Controlling the Grass Roots: The Local Dimension of Guerrilla Strategy ........................... 46 Chapter Five THE ILLEGAL SELF-DEFENSE GROUPS: CAUSE OR SYMPTOM OF THE DISORDER? ................... 53 Origins, Characteristics, and Organization ............ 53 Allegations of Collusion with the Colombian Military .... 57 Links to the Drug Trade .......................... 58 Political Actors or Criminals? ...................... 59 Chapter Six COLOMBIAN GOVERNMENT STRATEGY ............ 61 Plan Colombia ................................ 61 Counter-Narcotics Strategy ....................... 64 Role of the United States ......................... 67 Chapter Seven THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS ...................... 71 Prospects for a Peace Settlement ................... 74 Conclusions .................................. 78 Chapter Eight COLOMBIAN FUTURES ......................... 79 Scenario 1: Successful Peace Agreement ............. 79 Scenario 2: Turning the Tide ...................... 80 Scenario 3: Stalemate ........................... 81 Scenario 4: The Peruvian Model ................... 82 Scenario 5: Disintegration ....................... 82 Scenario 6: FARC Takeover or Power-Sharing ......... 82 Scenario 7: Internationalization of the Conflict ........ 83 Probable Future Path ........................... 83 Contents vii Chapter Nine A WIDER CONFLICT? ........................... 85 Panama ..................................... 85 Venezuela .................................... 87 Ecuador ..................................... 88 Brazil ....................................... 90 Conclusions .................................. 91 Chapter Ten IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. INTERESTS ............... 93 Strategic-Level Considerations .................... 93 Operational-Level Implications .................... 95 Regional Cooperation ........................... 97 Conclusions .................................. 99 Appendix: The Colombian Armed Forces ............... 101 Bibliography ..................................... 107 FIGURES 3.1. Location of FARC Blocs and Fronts .............. 28 3.2. Arms Smuggling Routes into Colombia ........... 36 4.1. Main Theaters of Operations ................... 41 4.2. Areas of Expansion of FARC Activity: 1986–1987 .... 48 4.3. Areas of Expansion of FARC Activity: 1996–1997 .... 49 ix TABLES 3.1. Links of Illegal Armed Groups to the Illicit Drug Trade .................................... 33 A.1. Colombian Defense Budget .................... 105 xi SUMMARY Current instability in Colombia derives from the interaction and re- sulting synergies stemming from two distinct tendencies: the devel- opment of an underground criminal drug economy and the growth of armed challenges to the state’s authority. The first source of in- stability is reflected in the increasingly pervasive influence of drug networks and their infiltration of key societal institutions; the second is the growth of guerrilla armies as well as the development of orga- nized violence perpetrated by illegal self-defense forces, also known as paramilitaries. The actions of drug traffickers, guerrillas, and paramilitaries have exacerbated deeper problems in Colombian so- ciety: the central government’s