Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1297–1314, 2018 https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018 © Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Multi-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertainty Rui Figueiredo1,2, Kai Schröter2, Alexander Weiss-Motz2, Mario L. V. Martina1, and Heidi Kreibich2 1Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy 2GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Sect. 5.4: Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany Correspondence: Rui Figueiredo (rui.fi
[email protected]) Received: 2 October 2017 – Discussion started: 16 October 2017 Revised: 26 March 2018 – Accepted: 11 April 2018 – Published: 3 May 2018 Abstract. Flood loss modelling is a crucial part of risk as- have on the built environment, economy and society (Mess- sessments. However, it is subject to large uncertainty that is ner and Meyer, 2006). This integrated approach has gained often neglected. Most models available in the literature are importance over recent decades, and with it so has the scien- deterministic, providing only single point estimates of flood tific attention given to flood vulnerability models describing loss, and large disparities tend to exist among them. Adopt- the relationships between flood intensity metrics and damage ing any one such model in a risk assessment context is likely to physical assets, also known as flood loss models. A large to lead to inaccurate loss estimates and sub-optimal decision- number of models have become available in the scientific lit- making. In this paper, we propose the use of multi-model en- erature. However, despite progress in this field, many chal- sembles to address these issues.