Economics

Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey Structural change and politics remain heavy influences

• Tenant demand for retail space still falling sharply, contrasting with growth in the industrial sector • Industrial the only sector displaying positive rental and capital value expectations in the near term • Proportion of respondents sensing the overall market is in some stage of a downturn increases

The Q4 2018 RICS UK Commercial Property Market Survey of the country. Indeed, the twelve month rental outlook is results continue to display mixed fortunes across the three positive for the industrial sector right across the UK, while traditional sectors. Indeed, the strong performance of the expectations remain steeped in negative territory for retail. industrial sector remains in stark contrast to that of retail, Perhaps one distinction that can be made is in , driven by the structural shift in consumer spending habits. where prime office rental projections are flatter (albeit still Meanwhile, survey participants continue to highlight political slightly positive) than is the case for most regions. uncertainty to be holding back activity, with the lack of clarity causing decisions to be delayed. In terms of the investment market, enquiries reportedly fell across the retail sector at the sharpest quarterly pace (net During the final three months of 2018, all-sector occupier balance terms) since 2008. Meanwhile, industrial assets demand reportedly declined for the third consecutive quarter, continued to attract a rise in investor interest, although the as the net balance inched down to -13% from -9% previously. pace of growth was more moderate than that seen over the Although the negative headline reading continues to be past year. Having increased fractionally in Q3, demand held weighed down significantly by the sharp fall in tenant demand more or less steady for the office sector this time around. across the retail sector (net balance -58%), the latest results With regards to demand from overseas buyers, there was not also point to a slight decline in demand for office space (net much change reported in any of the three sectors covered by balance -9%). At the same time, demand continued to rise the report during Q4. smartly across the industrial sector, with a net balance of +21% of respondents noting an increase over the period. The supply of property on the market for sale was steady at the headline level. This represents the first occasion since Given this sustained growth, availability of industrial space the series was introduced in 2014 in which a decline has fell once more, with the survey’s indicator on vacant supply not been noted. The rise in retail properties for sale was continuing to edge lower for a twenty sixth successive offset by a decline in industrial stock, while little change was quarter. Alongside this, having remained broadly stable over seen across the office sector. Twelve month capital value the past two years, availability picked-up in the office sector projections were broadly unaltered across most sub-sectors (albeit marginally). Nevertheless, it is within the retail sector compared with Q3, although expectations for growth in the where the increase in vacant space is most acute, evidenced industrial sector were trimmed slightly. Nevertheless, prime by a net balance of 46% of respondents reporting a rise in industrial assets are still envisaged posting the strongest Q4 (the joint highest since 2009). Meanwhile, retail and office gains on a sectoral comparison by a comfortable margin. landlords opted to increase incentives on offer to tenants, while those across the industrials sector kept inducements From a regional standpoint, prime office capital value unchanged. expectations actually improved in London (flat previously), although secondary office values are still seen coming under Respondents trimmed their expectations for rental growth in some downward pressure. It is also worth noting that some the near term at the headline level, as the net balance eased of the optimism around the outlook for secondary industrial to -7% compared to -2% in Q3. Even so, the underlying values has faded over recent quarters in both London and pattern remains closely aligned with that seen over the past the South East, albeit projections remain modestly positive two quarters. Rents are anticipated to continue rising in the nonetheless. Unsurprisingly, retail sector capital values, both industrial sector, while remaining unchanged for offices, with for prime and secondary locations, are expected to fall further rents seen declining further for retail premises. Over the in all parts of the UK. next twelve months, rental expectations remain comfortably positive across both the prime and secondary industrial Sticking with London and the South East, a respective 71% markets, and are firmly negative across the board for retail. and 69% of contributors sense the market is in the early to Prime office rents are still envisaged rising in the year ahead, middle stages of a downturn. In the case of the latter, this is although expectations have now turned marginally negative up from 53% in Q3, although London displayed a similarly for secondary offices. high proportion of respondents taking this view six months ago. Nevertheless, nationally (even with both London and the Looking at the broad regional breakdown reveals the South East excluded) a still significant 41% of contributors are national picture is mirrored to a large extent in most parts of the opinion the market is turning down.

To receive a free copy of this report on the day of release e: [email protected] rics.org/economics Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Commercial property - all sectors

Occupier Demand Availability Net balance % Net balance % 60 80

40 60

20 40

0 20

-20 0

-40 -20

-60 -40

-80 -60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Rent Expectations Inducements Net balance % Net balance % 60 100

40 80

20 60

0 40

-20 20

-40 0

-60 -20

-80 -40 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Investment Enquiries Capital Value Expectations

Net balance % Net balance % 60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40

-60 -60

-80 -80

-100 -100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Commercial property - Sector Breakdown

Occupier Demand Availability

80 Net balance % 80 Net balance %

60 Office 60 Industrial Office Retail 40 Industrial Retail 40 20

0 20

-20 0

-40 -20 -60

-40 -80

-100 -60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Rent Expectations Inducements

Rent Expectations by Sector 100 Net balance % 80 Net balance % Office 80 Industrial 60 Office Retail Industrial 60 40 Retail

20 40

0 20

-20 0 -40 -20 -60

-40 -80

-100 -60 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Investment Enquiries Capital Value Expectations

80 Net balance % 80 Net balance %

60 60 Office Industrial 40 40 Retail

20 20

0 0 -20 -20 -40

-40 Office -60 Industrial -60 Retail -80

-80 -100

-100 -120 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Commercial property - Additional Charts

12 Month Capital Value Expectations 12 Month Rent Expectations

60 Net balance % 80 Net balance %

45 65

Q3 2018 50 30 Q4 2018 Q3 2018 35 Q4 2018 15 20 0 5 -15 -10 -30 -25

-45 -40

-60 -55

-75 -70 Prime Office Secondary Prime Secondary Prime Retail Secondary Average Prime Office Secondary Prime Secondary Prime Retail Secondary Average Office Industrial Industrial Retail Office Industrial Industrial Retail

Market Valuations Property Cycle

70 % of Respondents % of Respondents

60 Peak, 15%

50

Q3 2018 40 Q4 2018 Early Downturn, 35% Mid-Upturn, 12%

30

Early Upturn, 10%

20

10

Bottom, 7% 0 Very Cheap Cheap Fair Value Expensive Very Expensive Mid-Downturn, 21%

Extra Question 1 Extra Question 2

Have you seen any evidence of firms looking to relocate away from the UK in Do you expect to see firms relocating away from the UK over the next 2 years? response to the Brexit vote?

90 % 60 %

80 50 70

60 40

50 30 40

30 20

20 10 10

0 0 Yes No Yes No

4 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

East Midlands Gilbert Harvey, Kettering, Chris Wilkins, Luton, Sam Kingston, Norwich, Roche Budworth Hardcastle, gharvey@ Ashridge Estates Ltd, chris@ Chartered Surveyors, sam. Ben Coleman BSc budorthhardcastle.com - The ashridgeestates.co.uk - The kingston@rochesurveyors. FRICS, Northampton, Ben level of logitics activity by uncertainty over where the co.uk - The market has cooled Coleman Associates, ben@ occupiers, and investment economy is going will continue considerably over the past 3 bencolemanassociates.co.uk - transactions within this sector in whilst there is no agreed Brexit months, due to uncertainty Brexit. particular, have been extemely plan. surrounding Brexit. However, high over the last 12 months with limited supply of office Brendan Bruder BSc MRICS, within the East Midlands. Guy Gowing MRICS, Norwich, and industrial property, there Northampton, Abbey Ross Arnolds Keys LLP, guy.gowing@ shouldn’t be any lowering of Chartered Surveyors, brendan. Haydn Cole, Dunstable, arnoldskey.com - Demand in values in these sectors. [email protected] - Northampton Charmasson Management office and industrial sectors still closed 2018 with very much Consultants, harry.cole@ strong despite Brexit uncertainty. Simon Beeton MRICS, Harlow, a contrasting story between charmassonconsulting.co.uk - Derrick Wade Waters Ltd., scb@ Northampton town centre and There is increasing uncertainty Jonathan Nelson, Norwich, dww.co.uk - Occupiers are Northampton borough/rural. The in both the commercial and RUA LLP, jonathan.nelson@ generally cautious. No real depth town continued to be challenging, residential markets, driven richarduttingassociates.com to demand in any sector but still although healthy enquiry levels both by Brexit but also broader - Markets are nervous, but enough to get deals done. Some for A3 cafes and restaurants, geopolitical concerns. demand is strong for industrial, growth projections for industrial smaller retail and any available as units do not currently exist on may prove to be ambitious. freehold investments or buildings John Chappell, Skegness, the market. This is a real growth for occupation/development. Chappell & Co Surveyors Ltd, area. Stuart T King BSc MRICS, Northampton’s business parks john@chappellandcosurveyors. North Hertfordshire, Davies are seeing a lower but stable co.uk - Demand remains weak Les Long, Colchester, Eyesurvey King Chartered Surveyors, enquiry and transaction profile and continued uncertainty over Chartered Surveyors, ljl@ [email protected] - Brexit with logistics space particularly the UK economy and the effects eyesurvey.co.uk - Erratic and politicians causing issues. activity and office activity of Brexit, whatever the end and largely inactive. Rental founded on an absence of game, do not bode well for an negotiations protracted. Stuart T King BSc MRICS, supply. already weak High Street, nor Letchworth, Davies King businesses in general, facing Mike Pheonix BSc MRICS, Chartered Surveyors, Brendan Bruder BSc MRICS, shrinking customer demand on Stevenage, Brown & Lee, [email protected] - Brexit Daventry, Abbey Ross Chartered all fronts. mike.pheonix@brownandlee. and negative comments by Surveyors, brendan.bruder@ co.uk - Office market still weak, politicians are hurting the virgin.net - Daventry may well M A Lloyd, Leicester, Self- poor supply and poor demand. economy. benefit from the western unitary employed, [email protected] Industrial rents are increasing but authority reorganisation. This will - Uncertainty still prevails and will signs they are at a peak. Brexit is London group Daventry and Towcester for at least 12 to 24 months. still a concern. with the county town and that Anthony Saunders, should help with strong interest Richard Sutton MRICS, Philip Woolner MRICS, London, Cuthbert Lake, in logistics space, low stock Nottingham, NG Chartered Cambridge, Cheffins, philip. anthonysaunders@cuthbertlake. levels for offices and, in the Surveyors, [email protected] [email protected] - co.uk - In limbo in view of medium to longer term, even in - The market remains relatively Occupier demand slowed during uncertain outcome of Brexit the retail and leisure sectors. stable despite the pending the last part of 2018 across negotiations. Completion of the Flore bypass Brexit date. Industrial carries all sectors, and this is likely to will help with traffic flows, making on as if nothing has happened. continue at least over the first Charles McClean BSc MRICS, Daventry more accessible. Offices continue to split into part of 2019. Lack of availability Westminster - C, C J McClean Central freeholds for conversion, desirable high quality and almost across the business space Associates Ltd., charlie@eshp. industrial and logistics space unlettable. Retail - don’t go markets is holding values up. com - Brexit uncertainty is having remain popular. there. a material effect on occupiers’ Richard Bertram, Ipswich, vision of the future and most are Brendan Bruder BSc MRICS, Shaun Hadoc, Derby, Cabinet Beane Wass & Box, rbertram@ holding back, awaiting clarity. Kettering, Abbey Ross Office, [email protected] - bw-b.co.uk - Strong demand Chartered Surveyors, brendan. Uncertain but occupiers want to for residential development/ Charles Ostroumoff, London, [email protected] - Work has invest so seeking conclusion to conversions under £250,000. Arca PRM, charlesostroumoff@ finally started at Cransley Brexit. Very limited occupational office hotmail.com - Continued Park adjacent to the A43/ demand and few enquiries for uncertainty due to the lack of A14 junction. Speculative Eastern investments and little available clarity over Brexit is affecting development is concentrating on stock. General lack of confidence business, especially SME’s, logistics, whilst dental Kettering Anthony Barker BSc FRICS, in the market at present. forcing key decisions to be commercial space remains a Peterborough, Barker Storey delayed until Q2 2019. Assuming challenging market. Footfall has Matthews, [email protected] we have clarity by then and the deteriorated in the town centre - We have seen a number of world economy is still growing, after the closure of M&S. The both leasehold and freehold we should see an uplift in the likely dissolution of Kettering transactions with corporate second half of the year. There Council and subsuming the local companies put on hold due to the are, however, risks around these authority with a unitary (Corby, uncertainty over Brexit. two assumptions. Wellingborough, Rushden and Thrapston) is a real change for Kettering.

5 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Christopher Jago, London Justin Clack, West London, Richard Goldstein, London, North East (South), Houston Lawrence, Frost Meadowcroft, jclack@ michael elliott, richardgoldstein@ chris.jago@houstonlawrence. frostmeadowcroft.com - Office michaelelliott.co.uk - My Andrew Mason, Sunderland, co.uk - The local market in South take-up in the London Borough experience of the market is MD Insurance Services Limited, London across the board has of Hammersmith & Fulham in that strong demand exists for [email protected] been increasingly weakened 2018 was 677,000 sq ft, nearly well-let secure assets and - Significant number of Social as Brexit approaches and a third more than the total for opportunities with development Housing developments starting businesses directly or indirectly 2017 (409,000 sq ft) and treble potential. Investor demand is up in 2018, with further sites due affected (ie business servicing that of for 2016 (201,000 sq ft). thin for short term income deals in 2019. large companies who are Despite the high take-up, supply and vacant buildings, unless affected) are hesitating to make rose in Hammersmith & Fulham these attract owner occupiers. Colin Vance, Sunderland, acquisition decisions and, those from 7.6% to 8.3% availability Overseas buyers remain keen Sunderland City Council, colin. who are, frequently seek more as 228,752 sq ft of offices went to invest in London as lease [email protected] - competitive terms on flexible to the market at The Big Red structures appeal and they The uncertainty over Brexit will lease packages. Workplace, 245 Hammersmith understand our legal system. A have a detrimental effect in the Road. The high supply of lot of the investment is for the immediate and near future. Ercan Baydur, London, Taylor new offices and co-working purpose of wealth preservation Wimpey, ercan.baydur@hotmail. availability is reducing the value which is why assets let on long Dan Johnson, Darlington, co.uk - Brexit continuing to cause of the secondary office locally. leases currently attract the most Highways , dan. uncertainty in the market. competition. johnson@highwaysengland. Keith Hellen, London, LB Enfield, co.uk - The North East generally Guy Bowring BSc MRICS, [email protected] - Simon Kelly, London, Intrinsic is less vulnerable to the potential Victoria, Tuckerman, gbowring@ Difficult to predict. Property, simonkelly54@ economic threats posed by tuckerman.co.uk - Lots of googlemail.com - The restaurant Brexit. Reliance on oversees uncertainty but occupiers still Mac, London, Macneel, sector of the UK property market investment, and exports is active, even if seeking greater [email protected] - Not much has been hit in the past 12 lower here than other parts of flexibility on lease lengths. change expected. months by the restructuring of the country. Due to this, rents many national chains. With the and property prices have been Habib Sanni, London, London Mark Cherry, London, GAM, involvement of venture capital very subdued with growth post- Borough of Bexley, habib.sanni@ [email protected] - Stable backers over the past 5-7 recession amongst the lowest in ymail.com - There is uncertainty but uncertain. years, these chains have over the country. There is a general in the market due to the expanded in a relentless ‘chase belief that capital values can’t uncertainty around Brexit. Olu Odeleye, London, Instalcom, for space’ overriding operational reduce much further from current [email protected] - My quality. When coupled with positions. A market backdrop of Ikenna Ezendiokwele, London, observation is an initial move weakening consumer demand, limited investor enquiries shows VVB Engineering UK Limited, by few companies to relocation this has caused something of a very little indication of change. ezendiokwele.i@googlemail. to other European cities due market correction in terms of rent com - Post Brexit, the markets to Brexit but most companies and capital value levels. David Downing, Newcastle upon will slow down, property values are partial to remain in the UK. Tyne, Sanderson Weatherall, across the board will take a hit Though Brexit has an impact on Stephen English, London, HBC [email protected] - In and negative equity might ensue. the market, it should not have a Real Estate, stephenenglish@ the occupier market, some lasting impact if the government hanlonbennett.co.uk - The sectors remain strong, whilst John Kent FRICS, London - could have a set strategy. The market remains nervous and will others weaken. The prime West End, CBRE, john.kent@ biggest issue is lack of unity to remain so until Brexit is sorted office pipeline in Newcastle cbre.com - Although there deliver Brexit. one way or another. Certainty has improved, with ground is continuing demand from will engender confidence. being broken for The Lumen overseas investors, uncertainty Paul Krendel, London, Levy and a start anticipated in the around Brexit is impacting the Real Estate LLP., paul.krendel@ Stephen Maskell, London, next 12 months for The Spark investment market. Development levyllp.co.uk - The commercial Maskell King Limited, stephen@ at Newcastle Helix, which will activity remains subdued and property market in Central maskell-king.co.uk - Pessimism. bring over 200,000 sq ft of much construction starts are at a low London has generally held up needed Grade A stock to the level. Consequently, there will be quite well despite the economic Tony Milton, London, Salter Rex, market. The investment market a dearth of new schemes in 2020 and political uncertainty over the [email protected] - With remains buoyant with plenty of - 2023. The agency market has last 2 years. the Brexit chaos it is impossible activity across all sectors. proved surprisingly resilient, but to foresee a positive future in occupiers are hesitant to commit, Paul Spence, London, Paul J the short-term...... though 3+ Ian Miller, Newcastle upon Tyne, and so deals are taking longer. Spence Chartered Surveyor, years things look positive for real Luxury Leisure, ian.miller@ However, there is a lot of activity [email protected] - We estate (except residential prices). luxury-leisure.co.uk - The market in the flex sector. As to rent need to sort out Brexit now. is experiencing and will continue reviews, uplifts are becoming W Nicol-Gent, London, Killochan to experience significant rarer. Peter Sudell, London, BNP & Co, louanna@blueyonder. changes and we could see either Paribas Real Estate, peter. co.uk - Conversions to “higher slow growth or a substantial re- [email protected] and best use” continue - largely base depending on the political - Prospects of a Labour residential. position. government more worrying than Brexit. Retail values need to make a market adjustment.

6 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Kevan Carrick, Newcastle North West John Ashall, Manchester, Paul Nolan BSc FRICS, upon Tyne, JK Property Sprin PCC Ltd, john.asahll@ Oldham, Nolan Redshaw, paul@ Consultants LLP, kevan@ Andrew Taylorson, springandco.co.uk - As all will nolanredshaw.co.uk - The most jkpropertyconsultants.com - The Preston, Eckersley, at@ appreciate it is difficult to predict recent industrial scheme at market is relatively stable but eckersleyproperty.co.uk - There trends going forward until Brexit Victoria trading estate is now availability of more grade A office remains a shortage of good has been resolved one way or fully-let at record rents which is space is required. industrial stock across the the other. a good indication of the strength region. The lack of investment in of the market. The forthcoming Malcolm G Holmes, Sunderland, new development is a concern. John Fifield, Manchester, Fifield Wallinwood Business Park ABP Property Consultants, The office market is turning Glyn Ltd, john.fifield@fifieldglyn. Offices are eagerly awaited. [email protected] - over but no real evidence of com - “Steady as she goes “ Difficult market in Sunderland rental growth, just surplus space apart from retail which is difficult, Sean Reed, Carlisle, Sean C. - residential conversions seem absorbing demand. The retail with the exception of true market Reed Ltd (Chartered Surveyors), to be in oversupply. Insufficient market is best described as towns (which offer something [email protected] - inward investment in city centre. challenging. different to attract shoppers), and Keep the faith, don’t panic. Some early signs of growth in perhaps the regional purpose regeneration areas, and new Andrew Wells, Liverpool, B&M built shopping centres eg Terence Carnes, Manchester, residential build on green field Retail, amdrew.wells@bmreatil. Trafford Centre , Metro Centre Live Nation, terry.surveyor@ still under expected target levels. co,uk - Retail market is in decline , Meadowhall , White City etc, outlook.com - Brexit will, in my better deals are available for where the mega stores are opinion, be a major issue over Peter Smith MRICS, Durham, occupiers who can drive harder based together with F & B and the next two years causing Elvet Estates, [email protected] deals. Leisure. property markets to remain static - Retail is suffering noticeably, or drop below current values. compounded by 2 large schemes Brian Bailey BSc MRICS, John R A MacDonald, Uncertainty is causing the that have been in planning for Manchester, Edmundson Manchester, MacDonald Hogg, market to procrastinate. some time starting and releasing Electrical Limited, brian.bailey@ [email protected] - Brexit is a new stock of A1, A3 and A4 to eel.co.uk - The prime industrial mess and creating uncertainty. Tom Carew, Birkenhead, Smith the market. This may act as market is seeing tremendous & Sons, tcc@smithandsons. a magnet and pull investment growth across the UK through Kevin Tobin, Manchester, Jacobs net - Brexit seems to be scaring away from the centre of Durham 2018, and 2019 is expected to be UK, [email protected] - people off from signing leases. or these schemes may fail to the same. Secondary industrial is The high street continues see achieve the occupancy levels still strong and supply of quality the ongoing retail decline and Northern Ireland predicted. Either way, the effect units is limited I expect to see a number of on the city could be negative large department store chains PD Lynch, Belfast, Lagan, or will negatively impact other Brian Ricketts MRICS, Liverpool, struggle/ go under over the next [email protected] nearby centres. Hitchcock Wright & Partners, 12 months. City and town centres - Not great overall. [email protected] - need to totally re-think how Simon Haggie, Newcastle Shortage of supply of office and they work and what their main upon Tyne, LLP, industrial stock is a key concern function should be. Large, bold, simon.haggie@knightfrank. for Merseyside in the short to and decisive investment will be Alexander, Aberdeen, A B Robb com - Surprisingly busy last medium term, particularly over required quickly to prevent town Ltd, [email protected] - Brexit quarter of 2018 in terms of the next twelve months. centres in particular becoming will be a problem in retaining enquiries for industrial space ‘forgotten’ spaces. major players in Scotland but and some significant new Christopher Learmont-Hughes, an even greater hurdle will be factory/warehouse units Liverpool, Burland Limited, Martin Andrew Walton BSc the Scottish tax levels when under construction thanks to [email protected] - FRICS, Tameside, Waltons, compared with the rest of the Amazon and Nissan’s suppliers Increase in demand in the office [email protected] - Brexit UK. (although Nissan like most motor and industrial sectors with a yet to impact on cheaper retail manufacturers has seen a major downturn in retail. and industrial but a lot of people David Castles, , Ian dip in sales and redundancies are holding back disposals. Philp Glasgow Ltd, david@ are in the immediate pipeline). Damien Gibbs, Preston, Garside philpholdings.co.uk - Market Waddingham Surveyors, damien. Matthew Salt, Manchester, conditions still volatile especially Tim Cameron-Jones, Leeds, gibbs@garsidewaddingham. Emerson Management Services, in secondary retail sector and Cushman and Wakefield, tim. co.uk - In general terms, [email protected] - Seem 2019 will be another challenging cameron-jones@cushwake. improved business confidence to be reaching a peak in value year. com - My comments assume no has led to an increased number but a market crash is expected in significant economic shock, i.e. of transactions but values are the aftermath of Brexit. Emma Mackay, Irvine, there will be an orderly Brexit. still not back up to pre recession North Ayrshire Council, A no deal Brexit will have a levels. Industrial transactions Paul Nolan BSc FRICS, emmamackay@north-ayrshire. significant short term adverse remain strong. Offices and retail Bury, Nolan Redshaw, paul@ gov.uk - Without yet knowing impact on occupier and investor remain static. Mixed assets are nolanredshaw.co.uk - The the outcome and finer details of confidence. As a regional the key. industrial market remains strong Brexit, expectations are variable. market, it is less influenced by and with the Chamberhall overseas investors and I expect scheme starting in 2019, the Olusoladotun Faleye, Aberdeen, demand from domestic investors level of supply will increase to GVJB, olusoladotunf@yahoo. to be maintained at a buoyant match demand. Recent office com - Potentially less predictable level by the weight of money deals give some suggestion that in the short term and tending currently in institutional funds. the market is improving. Retail towards a buyers market. remains difficult.

7 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Richard Fox, Glasgow, Richard David Martin BSc FRICS, Giles Worrall, South East, Jean Howe, Luton, Kirkby Fox Chartered Surveyor, Brighton, Stiles Harold Williams, Cluttons, giles.worrall@cluttons. Diamond, jean.howe@ [email protected] - I [email protected] - Strong com - Market peak for office inv, kirkbydiamond.co.uk - Industrial have never in my 67 years known interest in the office market in still more pain for retail, see Q4 is still overvalued, but a shortage the economy to be in such a Central Brighton. Office rents valuations hitting IPD. Sheds of stock has fuelled capital state of uncertainty. The whole and industrial rents continuing stable but close to peak. value rises since October 2016. political scenario is a total burach to push upwards due to the lack Offices have been stable for last (Gaelic for mess). of availability. Limited pipeline Hugh Mcshane, Brighton and 2 years. Local retail is stable but supply of industrial. Hove, Crickmay Chartered general weakening of sentiment Simon Metcalfe, Edinburgh, Surveyors, [email protected] is evident. Gleeds Cost Management, Emma Goodford, South East - Office and industrial values [email protected] Home Counties., Knight continue to grow due to lack of Jeremy Braybrooke, - Busy currently, however, retail Frank LLP, emma.goodford@ supply, retail market continues Southampton, Osmond market is suffering from the knightfrank.com - New active to be difficult due to online Brookes, jeremy.braybrooke@ online companies and future demand has reduced by 18% competition. osmondbrookes.co.uk - While is uncertain due to Brexit and in the last quarter of 2018 and Brexit itself is not really the Scottish Independence which is significantly the overall number Iain Steele FRICS, Farnham, reason for any downturn, still hanging over Scotland. of requirements has reduced in Park Steele, iain@parksteele. the ‘uncertainty’ caused by it this quarter since 2016/Brexit. com - Industrial continues to certainly is. Add to this a general South East Spec development has reduced be in strong demand. Small economic slackening in spending and ground up development offices also continue to let well. power and an increasing Allan Pickering, Winchester, less likely than refurbishment. There are retail enquiries from inclination to buy more online Goadsby, allan.pickering@ Crossrail centres dominate take independents but the sector and you have a pending perfect goadsby.com - Uncertainty in the up and the West London market remains cautious. storm for the High Street. As we market caused by Brexit. is dominant. agents have a tendency to say, Ian, Portsmouth, Cyan Power 2019 will be an ‘interesting’ year. Andrew Reed, South East, RS Francis Tomlinson, Hitchin, CPM Limited, imp@cyanpower. Retail, [email protected] - Aitchison Raffety, francis. com - If trade counter demand Jeremy Cracknell, London Landlords of retail properties are [email protected] - is stripped out of the industrial and the South East, DP World still way behind the times and Current low level of confidence. market, then performance will London Gateway, jeremy. are in denial about the current be unspectacular. Industrial [email protected] - While state of the retail market and G A Willey, Chelmsford, T values have to rise to justify new the uncertainty around Brexit future rental values heading in Rippon Estates Ltd, geoff@ buildings. The prime market remains and looks likely to be a downward direction. It’s no rippons.co.uk - Limited activity at has dragged the value of used unresolved for some time, it time to keep their heads stuck present due to the season and space along behind. Offices will have the potential to stall in the sand - it’s akin to Trump’s the uncertainty of Brexit. are increasingly sophisticated in the market generally - but denial of climate change. Both terms of facilities. Rising rents businesses have to keep moving situations are based on financial Gerard Tvedt, Sunningdale, must be analysed in relation to and so we anticipate continued loyalties. Tvedt Group Ltd, gerrytvedt@ the quality of the buildings. There strong demand but a mixed tvedt.co.uk - These predictions are too many shops, but what approach of cautiously optimistic. Christopher Marriott FRICS, are, of course, made blindly can you do with them? So many Faringdon, Oxon, Marriotts without knowing the precise do not lend themselves to other John Parker, London & South Property LLP, christopher. nature of our exit from the uses. East, Terrarossa Project, john@ [email protected] - Most European Union and, more terrarossaproject.co.uk - Once all our instructions are for small, importantly in my view, the J R Spacey, Maidstone, Cobbs of the unnecessary and grossly secondary properties but even spectre of a Corbyn led labour Consultancy, cobbconsult@ exaggerated scaremongering for those there is a hesitation to government. This is not political gmail.com - Retail market about Brexit has died away, the commit prior to Brexit. Second, partisanship on my part, as both suffering from internet shopping, market will recover and thrive, the market for retail properties in of these issues will bear heavily casual Dining and restaurants without the uncertainty. small market towns, especially on the commercial property closing due to customer those where the banks have market irrespective of any of our apathy, poor offers, take away John Pike, Maidstone, King & pulled out, is fragile in the personal views. delivery firms---Deliveroo etc, Johnston, john.pike2@outlook. extreme. Supermarket dining offers. com - Market likely to continue Giles Blagden, Reading, Hicks Pubs suffering downturn due to to weaken in most sectors until Colin Brades, Brighton & Hove, Baker, g.blagden@hicksbaker. uncompetitive pricing because Brexit is properly resolved and GVA, [email protected] co.uk - I consider that the of high duty, poor offers and fit future trading opportunities are - All sectors marked time in Q4, general underlying demand for outs. High Streets have a major clearer. apart from secondary retail, property is good, particularly problem with parking costs which continues to weaken. for investment, but that the --£1.70 per hour in Canterbury short term outlook over the next £3 ph in Greenwich. David Boyden, Colchester, three months at least (while the Boydens, david.boyden@ Government tries to sort out boydens.co.uk - All prospective Brexit) remains a challenge for buyers/tenants proceeding with property businesses and has great care and ensuring all the certainly impacted on demand boxes are ticked. and deals over the last two months or so.

8 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Jonathan Hunnibal, London/ Peter Ridsdale Smith, Tunbridge Victoria Parker, Goudhurst, Kent, Ashleigh Phillips, Plymouth, South East, Glenny LLP, Wells, Bracketts, peter@ Spurdown, victoria.parker@ Bruton Knowles, ashleigh. [email protected] - bracketts.co.uk - Brexit and spurdown.co.uk - Radical reform phillips@brutonknowles. Occupier demand and enquires consumer confidence is required to Business Rates. Free co.uk - The South West market have dropped off significantly continuing to weigh heavy on the town centre shoppers’ parking continues to operate freely, in the run up to the Christmas market with related uncertainty, by local authorities. Salisbury however, there is clearly holiday season. Expect this to though there are some bright introduced free shopper parking apprehension of the possible recover in January, but not to spots for well located properties after the Novochock attacks. impact of Brexit. Secondary levels previously seen, due sensibly priced on a capital and Car parks are full and the shops lenders are more prevalent in to continued uncertainty over rental basis. and restaurants buzzing. It’s not development where money is Brexit. Industrial rental levels rocket science. expensive. On the whole the holding firm at the moment. R Hill, Salisbury, HBAS Ltd, Devon and Cornwall market [email protected] - South West continues to operate towards the Jonathan Mack, Horsham, West Lack of confidence resulting from top of its normal range. Activity Sussex, Crickmay Chartered huge uncertainty about what is A R Edgcumbe FRICS, Taunton, levels are reasonable. Surveyors, [email protected] going to happen in the next 3 - 6 Larkman Edgcumbe Ltd., ae@ - We are typically finding both months. larkmanedgcumbe.co.uk - Chris, Bristol, C Squared purchasers and prospective Retailers are holding their breath, Property Developments Ltd, tenants to be hesitating at the Richard Phillips, Andover, hoping Christmas won’t be a [email protected] - Land values present time, whilst clearly they Waverley surveys ltd, richard@ washout. are too high compared to sales are waiting to see what comes of wbicdevelopments.co.uk - Good. values and rate of sales. the Brexit negotiations. We are Andrew, Plymouth, Ireland still finding the industrial market Robert Lee, Portsmouth, Weller, andrew01@irelandweller. David Perry, Redruth, Wm remains strong, with very limited Hants Realty Ltd, robert.lee@ co.uk - Retail subsequent to G Weller & Son Ltd, david@ supply currently available within hantsrealty.co.uk - I believe we RICS guidance on valuation wmweller.co.uk - The uncertainty the local area. have passed the peak of the will deteriorate further and in with the exit/remain/on hold market, however, some agents secondary location reach crisis strategy for BREXIT is probably Mark Skelton MRICS, Epsom, and investors appear to think point. the most influential factor for Stiles Harold Williams, otherwise - quoting high prices investors at present. With any [email protected] - Office as if we are still in a growing Andrew Hosking BSc MRICS, business, decisions need to market slow, low supply but weak market. with all of the political Barnstaple, Stratton Creber be made to move forward, so demand, lease event driven. uncertainty in the UK and Commercial, andrew@sccexeter. politicians should do their jobs Industrial good but very little Worldwide, I believe a correction co.uk - The town is bearing up and place their personal political stock. is inevitable in 2019/2020. well despite the headwinds of aspirations aside. Brexit uncertainty. Martin Trundle, Chichester West Shaun Walters BSc MRICS, Gideon, Wellington, Foxmoor Sussex, Henry Adams, martin. Reading, Parksinon Holt, Andrew Hosking BSc MRICS, Ltd, [email protected] [email protected] - [email protected] - Exeter, Stratton Creber - Sheds here are doing well, Caution, but the general levels General enquiries are lower and Commercial, andrew@sccexeter. particularly small business units of low business supply space property is taking longer to shift. co.uk - Exeter is maintaining its sub 2,000 sq ft. will underpin values. We expect position as the most successful more activity 2nd half 2019 as Stuart Clark, Worthing, West commercial location in Devon John Plimmer FRICS, Exeter, the outcome of Brexit will be Sussex, Marshall Clark LLP, and Cornwall private investor, jcoplimmere@ known. [email protected] - In gmail.com - Not all bad but it our view, the market is in almost Andrew Hosking BSc MRICS, could change rapidly due to Matthew Pellerea, South a state of suspense awaiting Torbay, Stratton Creber external factors. East, Matthew Pellereau Ltd, the outcome of Brexit. When it Commercial, andrew@sccexeter. [email protected] - We trade knows what is happening then co.uk - There remains a critical Kim Moreton, Bristol, 2M in a time of great uncertainty, investors we speak to can start shortage of employment land in Research and Survey, with retail high street suffering to buy again. The impression we Torbay (particularly in Torquay), [email protected] the effects of online service, receive is that investors money town centre retail remains - Uncertainty damages value. but the demand for freehold is is being held because they are challenging. Weak government, with weak consistent across the sectors. prepared to take the risk that opposition, does nothing to The leasing market is still good values might increase in the Andrew Kilpatrick, Swindon, foster prosperity and continuity. for industrial but tricky for retail next 12-24months (considered Kilpatrick & Co, a.kilpatrick@ Disruption is a marketing tool and office premises. unlikely) but feel much more that kilpatrick-cpc.co.uk - Market for start-ups, not a suitable they will go down. So, why buy continues to be subdued thanks economic tool for a government... Peter Dalby, Southampton, now when a better deal may be to the Brexit chaos, undermining Holloway Iliffe & Mitchell, peter@ available in a few months’ time? economic and consumer Leslie Warren, Bristol, G4S hi-m.co.uk - The continuing confidence in Swindon, as Cash Solutions (UK) Ltd., leslie. uncertainty over Brexit is having elsewhere. [email protected] - Demand a negative impact on the market. for logistics space evident.

9 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Malcolm White MRICS, Exeter, Phil Wiltshire, Cornwall & Devon, Tim Wright, Yeovil, RMW Knight, Jonathan Williams, Wrexham, The Robinson White Partnership, Philips Rogers Ltd., pwiltshire@ [email protected] - The Jon Williams Commercial LLP, malcolmwhite@robinson-white. philipsrogers.co.uk - Demand market remains reasonably [email protected] - From com - There is a shortage of for B class development land stable in our region although my own company perspective, office and industrial space in the remains strong with limited enquiries were obviously particularly in North Wales area and new constructions and supply. Larger industrial units subdued over the Christmas and Cheshire, where I have rates will start to increase. (8,000 to 10,000 sq.ft) are in holidays. The industrial sector practiced for approaching 40 less demand. Some larger remains stronger than the office years ,the retail property market Marcus Arundell, Bath, vacant units are being altered or retail sectors. is in a perilous state with little HomeLets, marcus@ to accommodate demand for sign of any improvement due to homeletsbath.co.uk - All in all, a smaller units (1,000 to 2,000 Wales the uncertainty of Brexit and fairly positive picture given the sq.ft). There is increased the penal rating system which current and forecasted political demand from regional and Andrew Morgan FRICS, our politicians seem unable or uncertainty over our leadership national trade counter occupiers Lampeter, Morgan and Davies, unwilling to grasp. Locally the and Brexit positions. seeking prime and secondary lampeter@morgananddavies. industrial sector is generally industrial. Retail is continuing to co.uk - A generally difficult time performing well but the office Matthew Blaken, Bristol, DJ&P decline with limited interest for continues. If vendors are keen market is still sterile with an Newland Rennie, matthew@ larger units in towns. Some retail to secure a deal and listen to oversupply of space. Negative djandp.co.uk - The wider units are evolving to non-retail honest advice then deals can be but true I regret to say. anxiety concerning Brexit has uses. achieved. However, there are still been tempered at a local level some overambitious clients who Keith Pritchard, Swansea, Encon by strong regional activity Robert Holley, Stow-On-The- continue to live in the past. Times construction ltd, kpritchard@ in and around Bristol and in Wold and North Cotswolds, have changed. A lack of quality encon.uk.com - Due to Brexit, South Wales, buoyed by the Tayler and Fletcher, robert. in the new build sector. I feel that there will be a anticipation of increased activity [email protected] - significant downturn especially in with the removal of the Severn A little bit of nervousness sensed Chris Sutton, Cardiff, JLL, construction. It will be interesting Bridge tolls. At local High Street in the market but more concern [email protected] - The to see the effects on social level, conditions are difficult, over amount of national retail downturn in high street retail housing and how it will sustain its with niche, website independent chains struggling. Is this the has been most keenly felt in our required growth. businesses being the main beginning of a rice correction for secondary centres; further retail suitors. retail? The Cotswolds tends to casualties are expected this year. Rowland Jones, Swansea, remain pretty resilient through Investor demand has remained Rowland Jones Chartered Michael Oldrieve, Exeter, these times. robust, reflecting the weight Surveyors, rowland@ Vickery Holman, moldrieve@ of money in the market. Prime rowlandjones.co.uk - There is a vickeryholman.com - Market Russell Porter, Teignmouth, assets in Cardiff city centre are high level of uncertainty in the cooled towards the end of 2018 Porter Planning Economics most in demand. The abolition market. Lenders and purchasers but still looking busy despite Ltd, [email protected] of the Severn Bridge tolls has are cautious to predict what will Brexit. - Since the Brexit referendum already had a positive impact happen in the coming months. result, the level of uncertainty upon demand from logistics Michael T Ripley FRICS, has been increasing, which companies, however, there is a West Midlands Weston-Super-Mare, Stephen & is having a negative impact sense that some manufacturers co, [email protected] on short term investment. have put investment plans on Adam Goodwin MRICS, - Concern and uncertainty due Depending on the outcome of hold awaiting Brexit certainty. Herefordshire and to Brexit as well as the decline of the Brexit negotiations, there Worcestershire, John Goodwin the high street more generally. could be anything from a short Jason Thorne, Swansea, FRICS, adam@johngoodwin. term surge in investment to a Lambert Smith Hampton, co.uk - General level of enquiries Paul Bennett MRICS, Exeter, longer term overall decline in [email protected] - 2018 has have fallen, and this is because Ravenslade, pbennett@ investment. been a very strong year for the of a lack of confidence due ravenslade.co.uk - Hinckley commercial property market in to political and economic Point is a significant South West Simon Greenslade BSc South West Wales. Industrial uncertainty caused by the project which will influence many MRICS, Exeter, Stratton Creber rental and capital values have Government’s handling of Brexit, factors over next 1 - 2 years in Commercial, simon@sccexeter. continued to increase. Stability and uncertainty regarding what terms of demand from occupiers co.uk - Lack of occupier activity has returned to the office our future trading & financial and businesses who have in all markets due to Brexit market, with pre-recession position will be in the medium secured HPL contracts and also uncertainty. rental levels being achieved term. labour availability affecting the on prime office suites. Retail construction market. Simon Walsham, Bournemouth continues to struggle. 2019 Poole and Christchurch, James could be a challenging year if the Phil Pratt, Gloucester, Alder and Sons, simonwalsham@ political uncertainty continues. King, [email protected] - jamesandsons.co.uk - Good But the Swansea Bay market Future market performance is demand in office and industrial is well placed to deal with any likely to remain uncertain until markets contrasting with a weak short term down turn. The the implications of Brexit are retail sector. market badly needs new quality known (‘deal or no deal’). Retail premises. is the main concern. Tim Maggs, Bristol, Maggs & Allen, timm@maggsandallen. co.uk - Tough market conditons with a lack of stock.

10 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Chartered Surveyor market comments

Alan Pemberton, Birmingham, Michael Jones FRICS, Stephen R. L. Phillips, Hereford, M W Darwin, Northallerton, M W TFT LLP, apemberton@ Worcestor, Michael D Jones, Herefordshire Housing Ltd., Darwin & Sons, info@darwin- tftconsultants.com - Despite the mdjones@charteredsurveyor@ [email protected] - Most homes.co.uk - Weak demand concerns surrounding Brexit, virgin.net - The retail market is of the commercial property that over all sectors at present, transactions in all sectors continuing to deteriorate locally I manage for Herefordshire worries have grown over the apart form retail in Birmingham with a significant number of Housing Ltd. comprises economy as the year has gone and immediate surrounding secondary shops falling empty suburban shops for which on, confidence affected by lack commercial markets remain and the voids not being filled. demand remains strong, albeit of certainty caused by Brexit. strong, although how this will at relatively low rents. Modest continue in 2019 and beyond Neil Harris, Birmingham, Harris uplifts are still, however, being Matthew Tomlinson, Hull, is difficult to predict. Student Lamb, neil.harris@harrislamb. obtained on rent review. Doric Surveyors, matthew@ accommodation demand com - A Brexit ‘end game’ doricsurveyors.com - Lack of remains strong and buy to rent solution is required urgently, Tony Rushton, Newcastle availability of freehold stock is emerging with new substantial whether that is ‘No Deal’ or a Under Lyme, InHealth Group, specifically across the lower developments planned for variant that truly honours the [email protected] - Market end of the industrial sector delivery late 2019- 2020. Referendum result. in healthcare seems as busy as size range (sub 10,000 Sq ft) ever, both public and private. both for owner occupation and Anthony Rowland MRICS, Nick Waddington, Birmingham, investment. Increase build costs Evesham, Sheldon MWRE, nick.waddington@mwre. Yorkshire & the Humber brought about by inflation and Bosley Knight, trowland@ co.uk - Steady. further regulations in respect of sheldonbosleyknight.co.uk - Alan Dickinson FRICS, Hull, building control are having an Brexit uncertainty is a killer for Peter Burnett, Staffs, Chivers Dukes Sutton & Dickinson, impact on developers which in business confidence, and this commercial, pburnett@ dickinsonqs@dickinsonqs. turn is reducing the supply of the reflects in the property market. chiverscommercial.co.uk - The karoo.co.uk - More investment availability of new stock. market is trying to ignore Brexit by national companies or Caroline Norton, Birmingham, and political uncertainty but Government bodies required in Paul Nunn MRICS, Sheffield, Pall mall, carolinenoryon@live. wants a resolution to give more the Hull area particularly. Wates Construction, paul.nunn@ co.uk - There is a good level of certainty. Local factors for us hotmail.co.uk - Buoyant private demand for secondary / tertiary are the main determining forces Graeme Haigh MRICS, sector market currently, public industrial, however, mention is still although any negative Huddersfield, Bramleys LLP, sector investment in Yorkshire being made of Brexit. impact of Brexit etc will feed graeme.haigh@bramleys1. and the Humber still low. its way through. Some parties co.uk - The first signs of Brexit Graham Jones, Lichfield, are choosing to sit on hands caution have been witnessed in Richard Corby BSc (Hons) Kingston Commercial Property and await the outcome of Brexit the last three months. This has MRICS, Leeds, Lambert Smith Consultants, graham.jones@ before committing. however failed to dampen prices Hampton, [email protected] - kingstoncpc.co.uk - Although the particularly for freehold industrial The Brexit effect has only been general level of enquiries has Ralph Minott, Birmingham, property which continue to felt in the last four weeks, but it remained strong, there seems Calthorpe Esated, ralph. grow. Other sectors have seen will cause a hiatus for the next to be a greater degree of “sitting [email protected] - The West lengthening marketing periods. few months. on hands” and reluctance to Midlands is presenting a The preference to buy, rather commit, particularly in the office case for market interest, with than rent, remains and the Richard Ellison, Leeds, sector, which presumably is a opportunities for southern frustration at the lack of available Babcock International, richard. due to uncertainty over Brexit. migration and investment. With stock continues. ellison@babcockinternational. HS2 ‘on the horizon, prime and com - Generally stable market Jonathan Moore MRICS, secondary property in the likes James Swann, Sheffield, Fowler conditions apart from retail which Coventry, Holt Commercial, of Birmingham, are becoming Sandford LLP, james.swann@ is reacting poorly to market led [email protected] - A attractive for long term cost fowlersandford.com - Until Brexit demand. nervy occupational market saving relocation, investment is complete uncertainty will be continues, haunted by the growth, with good accessibility. the prevailing factor. Timothy, Harrogate, shadow of Brexit. Nevertheless, Parker Beevers Ltd, tim@ strength in the logistics market Rhys Sandbrook, Bromsgrove, James Thornton, London, parkerbeevers.co.uk - Please try continues to shine through along R O Sandbrook Ltd, enquiries@ Rosemount Estates, to remain positive. with a competitive market for rosandbrook.co.uk - Rather flat [email protected] well-let investment stock. pending Brexit chaos. - Our tenants are starting to struggle from the uncertainty of Michael Jones FRICS, Richard Clader BSc FRICS, Brexit. Bromyard, Michael D Jones, Lichfield, Calders, richard. mdjones@charteredsurveyor@ calderssurveyors.com - John Reeves, York, Helmsley virgin.net - The retail market Increasing Brexit driven group, john-reeves@helmsley. locally has been under attack nervousness is now becoming co.uk - Just get on with Brexit on two fronts now, namely apparent. and get rid of the uncertainty. due to the online phenomenon continuing to roll on. And, the uncertainty caused by the so called Brexit stalemate politically.

11 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

East Midlands James Hill MRICS, Kettering, Shaun Hadoc, Derby, Cabinet Richard Bertram, Ipswich, Beane Lambert Smith Hampton, jhill@ Office, [email protected] Wass & Box, rbertram@bw-b. Adam Sciberras, Milton Keynes, lsh.co.uk co.uk Milton Keynes Development Steven Haddock, Birmingham, Partnership, adam.sciberras@ John Chappell, Skegness, Prologis UK Limited, shaddock@ Robert Flint, Norwich, Brown & mkdp.org.uk Chappell & Co Surveyors Ltd, prologis.com Co LLP, robert.flint@brown-co. john@chappellandcosurveyors. com Adrian Cox, East Midlands, co.uk Eastern Waystone Limited, adrian.cox@ Sam Kingston, Norwich, Roche waystone.co.uk Jonathan Harvey, Nottingham, Anthony Barker BSc FRICS, Chartered Surveyors, sam. Park Evolution, harvey2share@ Peterborough, Barker Storey [email protected] Andy Carter, Nottingham, A J hotmail.com Matthews, [email protected] Carter Ltd, [email protected] Simon Beeton MRICS, Harlow, Kevin Skipworth, Leicester, Anuska Jethva, Watford, Derrick Wade Waters Ltd., scb@ Ben Coleman BSc Andrew Granger & Co, kevin. Mapeley, anuska.jethva@ dww.co.uk FRICS, Northampton, Ben [email protected] mapeley.com Coleman Associates, ben@ Simon Messervy, Cambridge, bencolemanassociates.co.uk M A Lloyd, Leicester, Self Chris Wilkins, Luton, Howard Group, simon. employed, [email protected] Ashridge Estates Ltd, chris@ messervy@howard-ventures. Brendan Bruder BSc MRICS, ashridgeestates.co.uk com Northampton / Daventry / M T Jorris Dempster, Bedford, Kettering, Abbey Ross Chartered TJ Quantity Surveying and David Bass, Watford, FBP Simon Penny, Norwich, Altus Surveyors, brendan.bruder@ Management Ltd, morris. Limited, [email protected] Group, [email protected] virgin.net [email protected] Gary Wiseman, Great Yarmouth, Stephen A Richmond BSc Charles Trafford, Nottingham, Matt Revill, Nottingham, Auction Wiseman Commercial, gary@ MRICS, Thurrock / Barking & Trafford Oliver, charles.trafford@ Estates, matt@auctionestates. wisemancommercial.co.uk Dagenham, Altus, stephen. traffordoliver.co.uk co.uk [email protected] Guy Gowing MRICS, Norwich, Christopher Melbourne, Michael Gregory, Northampton, Arnolds Keys LLP, guy.gowing@ Stephen Folbigg, Bedford, Southampton, SelwayJoyce Cs2 Limited, mgregory@cs2. arnoldskey.com Ei Group, stephen.folbigg@ Limited, comelbourne1585@ co.uk eigroupplc.com gmail.com Jonathan Nelson, Norwich, Nigel J Carnall FRICS, RUA LLP, jonathan.nelson@ Stuart T King BSc MRICS, Duncan Batty, Northampton, Nottingham, W A Barnes LLP, richarduttingassociates.com North Hertfordshire, Davies Berrys, duncan.batty@berrys. [email protected] King Chartered Surveyors, uk.com Les Long, Colchester, Eyesurvey [email protected] Oliver Taplin, Derby, One Stop, Chartered Surveyors, ljl@ Duncan Woods, Wellingborough, [email protected] eyesurvey.co.uk Stuart T King BSc MRICS, Harwoods, duncan@ Letchworth, Davies King harwoodsproperty.co.uk Paul Riley, Lincoln, East Lindsey Linda Harris, Colchester, Chartered Surveyors, District Council, paul.riley@e- Tigercat Trading, [email protected] E Patsalides, Leicester, John lindsey.gov.uk [email protected] Lester Partnership Limited, William Rose, Peterborough, [email protected] Peter Hay, Stoke, Staffordshire Mark Critchley, Cambridge, , [email protected] university, peter.hay@staffs. Barker Storey Matthews, mc@ Garry, Nottingham, Wood Moore ac.uk bsm.uk.com London & Co Ltd, garry@woodmoore. co.uk Peter Hotchin, Loughborough, Max Bryan, Cambridge, C&W, Alan Karbritz, London, MSPS Leicestershire, Mather Jamie, [email protected] Ltd., [email protected] Gary Lawson, Peterborough, peter.hotchin@matherjamie. Broadgate Hart Limited, co.uk Michael Davies BSc MRICS, Alistair Mason FRICS, Hackney, [email protected] Hatfield / Hatfield, Davies & Co, Bunch & Duke, valuer@ R Odedra, Leicester, R Odedra [email protected] bunchandduke.com Gilbert Harvey, Kettering, Ltd, [email protected] Budworth Hardcastle, gharvey@ Mike Pheonix BSc MRICS, Andy Davison, London, budorthhardcastle.com Richard Sutton MRICS, Stevenage, Brown & Lee, mike. Ladbrokes Coral, andrew. Nottingham, NG Chartered [email protected] [email protected] Haydn Cole, Dunstable, Surveyors, [email protected] Charmasson Management Neil Altman, Watford, VDBM, Anthony Saunders, Consultants, harry.cole@ Richard Wilkins BSc (Hons) [email protected] London, Cuthbert Lake, charmassonconsulting.co.uk MRICS, Chesterfield, Wilkins anthonysaunders@cuthbertlake. Hammond, jrw@wilkins- Ollie Tozer, Norwich, RLC, co.uk James Allen, Nottingham, Winvic hammond.com [email protected] Construction Ltd, jamesallenqs@ Anthony Smith, London, Buro gmail.com Rob, Nottingham, Proenergis Philip Woolner MRICS, Four Projects Ltd, tsmith@ Ltd, [email protected] Cambridge, Cheffins, philip. burofour.com [email protected]

12 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

Austin Stanniland, London, Colin Pryke, London, Colin Ikenna Ezendiokwele, London, Kurt Duvel, London, Turner & Blackstanniland Ltd, Pryke, colinpryke.surveyor@ VVB Engineering UK Limited, Townsend, kurt.duvel@turntown. astanniland@blackstanniland. gmail.com [email protected] com com Craig Errington, London, Gazelle James Neathercoat, London, Lauren Wallace, London, Mann Barry Judd, London, Simmons London Building Consultancy, Maya Captial, jcneathercoat@ Smith, [email protected] & Hawker Limited, barry@ [email protected] gmail.com simmonsandhawker.co.uk Lewis Sewell, London, D Davis, London, Hyde, James Orr, London, Royal Structuretone Ltd, lewis.sewell@ Belinda Prichard, London, [email protected] London, [email protected] structuretone.co.uk Harrow Council, belinda. [email protected] David Apthorp, London, Levy Jamie Statham, London, C&W, Lucy Godwin, London, Savills, Real Estate, david.apthorp@ [email protected] [email protected] Ben Grossman, London, Pears levyllp.co.uk Property, bgrossmann@ Jeonghyun Lee, London, Mac, London, Macneel, pearsproperty.co.uk David Garforth-Bles, London, Hyundai Engineering and [email protected] GB & Partners, dgbles@gmail. Construction, drleepr@gmail. Ben Legard, London, Jones com com Manuel Detogni, London, Norris Adams, ben.legard@ Swingspark agency ltd, manuel. jnaproperty.com David Mack, London, Kinleigh Jimmy Bell, London, Ashwell [email protected] Folkard and Hayward, dmack@ London, jamessebastianbell@ Benjamin Tobin, London, kfh.co.uk gmail.com Mark Cherry, London, GAM, Strettons, btobin@strettons. [email protected] co.uk David Owens, London, John Anderson, London, Thackeray Estates, Berkeley Group, john. Mark Keal, London, Keal Bob Wiseman, London, aitchison [email protected] [email protected] Property Group, mark@ raffety, bob.wiseman@argroup. kealgroup.co.za co.uk David Priddis, London, Canada John Blackwell, London, Joiner Life, david.priddis@canadalife. Cummings, john.blackwell@ Mark Perkins, London, Ainsley & Charles McClean BSc MRICS, co.uk joinercummings.co.uk Partners, [email protected] Westminster - C, C J McClean Associates Ltd., charlie@eshp. Duncan Scorey, London, John Eden, London, Davis Martin Barrow, London, com Capital Generation Partners, Brown, jeden@davis-brown. M Barrow Associates Ltd, [email protected] co.uk [email protected] Charles Ostroumoff, London, Arca PRM, charlesostroumoff@ Ercan Baydur, London, Taylor John Kent FRICS, London - West Martin Lewis, London, Martin hotmail.com Wimpey, ercan.baydur@hotmail. End, CBRE, john.kent@cbre. Lewis Chartered Surveyors, co.uk com [email protected] Chaz Notay, London, JLL, chaz. [email protected] Francesco, London, Jonathan Eastwood, London, Martin wellsman, Barnet, Martin Bourne Wood Partnership, CBRE, jonathan.eastwood@ Wellsman FRICS, mgwellsman@ Chris Macdonald, London, Currie [email protected] cbre.com aol.com & Brown, chris.macdonald@ curriebrown.com G Clough, London, Clough Josh O’Rawe, London, Copping Matt Smith, London, Winter, [email protected] Joyce, jorawe@coppingjoyce. McCafferty Asset Management, Christopher Currell BSc MRICS, co.uk [email protected] Islington, Currell Commercial, Gareth Heald, London, Quintain, [email protected] [email protected] Julian W, London, IITS, Matthew Lowe, London, CHP [email protected] International LLP, mlowe@ Christopher Green, London, Gavin Hindley, London, SMU, chpqs.com Curzon Land, cgreen@ [email protected] Justin Clack, West London, curzonland.com Frost Meadowcroft, jclack@ Matthew Secker, London, Georgina Weller, London, frostmeadowcroft.com , matthew.secker@ Christopher Jago, London British land, georgina.weller@ britishland.com (South), Houston Lawrence, britishland.com Keith Hellen, London, LB Enfield, chris.jago@houstonlawrence. [email protected] Neil Nutley, London, Lendlease, co.uk Guy Bowring BSc MRICS, [email protected] Victoria, Tuckerman, gbowring@ Kevin Burke FRICS, South Christopher Wagstaff, London, tuckerman.co.uk London, Frederick Holt & Nicholas, London, Lazari Marcol, chris.wagstaff@marcol. Company, info@frederickholt. Investment Ltd, zorpides@ com Habib Sanni, London, London co.uk googlemail.com Borough of Bexley, habib.sanni@ Clifford Bonnett BSc MRICS, ymail.com Kevin Mccarthy, London, Nick Fisher, London, Kingly, nf@ Enfield, SBH Page & Read, Geometra Surveyors, kevin. kinglypartners.com [email protected] Hannah Grievson, London, mccarthy@justhousinggroup. Sloane Stanley Estate, hannah. co.uk Nick Zarach, London, Zarach, Colin Povey, London, Thompson [email protected] [email protected] Yates, cpovey@thompsonyates. Kim White BSc MRICS, London, co.uk Kinney Green, k.white@ kinneygreen.com

13 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

Nigel Metzner, London and Sam Fleming, London, Palmer North East Morrell, North Of England, South East, Canal & River Trust, Capitl, [email protected] Coopland & Son (Scarborough) nigel.metzner@canalrivertrust. Andrew Mason, Sunderland, Ltd, [email protected] org.uk Shahidur Rahman, London, MD Insurance Services Limited, Islington and Shoreditch HA, [email protected] Peter Smith MRICS, Durham, Niki Walker, London, CW, [email protected] Elvet Estates, [email protected] [email protected] Anthony Barella, Sunderland, Shaun Eddleston, London, ISS, Bradley Hall, anth9143@hotmail. Richard Topham, Kingston upon Olu Odeleye, London, Instalcom, [email protected] com Hull, Topham Larard, richard@ [email protected] tophamlarard.co.uk Simon Kelly, London, Intrinsic Barry Nelson, Durham City, Patrick O’Brien, London, O’Brien Property, simonkelly54@ Whittle Jones North East, Simon Haggie, Newcastle upon & Co, patrick@obrienproperty. googlemail.com [email protected] Tyne, Knight Frank LLP, simon. co.uk [email protected] Stephen A Richmond BSc C Fordy, Leeds, Fordy Marshall Paul Krendel, London, Levy MRICS, Bromley / Bexley / Ltd, christopherfordy@ T. Foxglove, Durham, Foxglove Real Estate LLP., paul.krendel@ Woolwich, Altus, stephen. fordymarshall.com Estates, tarquinfoxglove@gmail. levyllp.co.uk [email protected] com Chris Pearson, Newcastle upon Paul Newell, London, Westfileds Stephen English, London, HBC Tyne, Gavin Black and Partners, Tim Cameron-Jones, Leeds, Construction, paul.newell@ Real Estate, stephenenglish@ [email protected] Cushman and Wakefield, tim. westfieldsconstruction.com hanlonbennett.co.uk [email protected] Chris Roe, Newcastle upon Paul Spence, London, Paul J Stephen Maskell, London, Tyne, Hoults Yard Ltd, chris. Vicky Frankland, Teesside, Spence Chartered Surveyor, Maskell King Limited, stephen@ [email protected] Greig Cavey Commercial, vicky. [email protected] maskell-king.co.uk [email protected] Colin Vance, Sunderland, Peter Loizou, London, Appraisal Steve Bransby, London, Sunderland City Council, colin. North West Ltd, peterloizou2005@yahoo. NewRiver REIT, sbransby@nrr. [email protected] co.uk co.uk Aaron Webb, Manchester, MA Dan Johnson, Darlington, Cost Consulting Ltd, a.webb23@ Peter Sudell, London, BNP Susan Ellis MRICS, London, Highways England, dan. outlook.com Paribas Real Estate, peter. Connells Survey & Valuation, johnson@highwaysengland. [email protected] [email protected] co.uk Adrian Pollock, Liverpool, ARP Building Consultancy Ltd, Peter Tomkins, London, GIA BC Theo Quarendon, London, David Downing, Newcastle upon [email protected] LLP, [email protected] Kimmre, theo.quarendon@gmail. Tyne, Sanderson Weatherall, com [email protected] Aidan, Preston, Portfield Asset Rafal Gierszewski, London, Management LLP, aidan@ Eccone Ltd, [email protected] Tom Evans, London, Topland Ed cameron, Darlington, Merit portfieldinvestments.co.uk Group, [email protected] estates, tedcameron@hotmail. Reece Costain, London, Gleeds, com Alan Barningham, Wigan, Reeds [email protected] Tom Yoxall, London, WxY Rains, alan.barningham@ London, [email protected] Elizabeth Taylor, Durham, Turner reedsrains.co.uk Richard Goldstein, London, & Townsend, elizabeth.taylor@ michael elliott, richardgoldstein@ Tony Milton, London, Salter Rex, turntown.co.uk Andrew Jackson, Manchester, michaelelliott.co.uk [email protected] Ian S Parr Chartered Surveyors, Gavin Black, Newcastle upon [email protected] Rob carey, Windsor, CDR Vinay Kerai, London, BW, vinay_ Tyne, Gavin Black and Partners, Quantity Surveying Ltd, [email protected] [email protected] Andrew Kent, Manchester, [email protected] Tarmac, andrew.kent@tarmac. W Nicol-Gent, London, Killochan Ian Miller, Newcastle upon Tyne, com Rob Petty, London, City of & Co, louanna@blueyonder. Luxury Leisure, ian.miller@ London, rob.petty@cityoflondon. co.uk luxury-leisure.co.uk Andrew Taylorson, gov.uk Preston, Eckersley, at@ William Orr, London, BNP John Duff, Newcastle upon Tyne, eckersleyproperty.co.uk Robert Perge, London, HB Paribas Real Estate, william. Lambert Smith Hampton, jduff@ Reavis UK, pergerobert@gmail. [email protected] lsh.co.uk andrew wells, Liverpool, B&M com Retail, amdrew.wells@bmreatil. William Peach, London, Peach Kevan Carrick, Newcastle co,uk Rodney Willis, London, Network Real Estate Ltd, williamgpeach@ upon Tyne, JK Property Rail Property, rodney.willis@ gmail.com Consultants LLP, kevan@ Antony Butterfield, Manchester, networkrail.co.uk jkpropertyconsultants.com Arcadis, antony.butterfield@ arcadis.com Ronke Shona, London, Spencer Malcolm G Holmes, Sunderland, House Ltd, [email protected] ABP Property Consultants, Aran Wild, Manchester, Global [email protected] Mutual Properties Ltd, aw@ Ross James Henderson, London, globalmutual.com AG&G, rosshenderson19@ hotmail.co.uk

14 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

Brian Bailey BSc MRICS, Giuseppe Assalone, Preston, Paul Nolan BSc FRICS, John Lynch, Belfast, John Lynch Manchester, Edmundson Robert Pinkus & Co, joe@ Oldham, Nolan Redshaw, paul@ Associates Ltd, johnlynch@ Electrical Limited, brian.bailey@ pinkus.co.uk nolanredshaw.co.uk johnlynchassociates.com eel.co.uk Guy Prowse, Manchester, Paul Roberts, Liverpool, Core John Reid, Belfast, KS&P, Brian Ricketts MRICS, Liverpool, Apex Chartered Surveyors, Property Management & [email protected] Hitchcock Wright & Partners, [email protected] Consultancy Ltd, paulroberts@ [email protected] corepmc.com Neil McShane, Belfast, INPRIO, Ian Hill, Oldham, Ryder and [email protected] C Purden, Regional, Dutton, [email protected] Paul Witts, Manchester, Ridley Hedlinggten, cjpurdon@gmail. Thaw LLP, [email protected] Paul Mulholland, Belfast, Heron com Ian Rogers, Liverpool, Bros Ltd, paul.mulholland@ H&J Martin, ian.rogers@ Rebecca Channings, Bury, heronbros.com Charles Fifield, Cheshire, Fifield laganconstruction.com Greater Manchester, Bury Glyn, charles.fifield@fifieldglyn. Council, [email protected]. PD Lynch, Belfast, Lagan, com James Tottle, Manchester, uk [email protected] Savills, [email protected] Chris Dooley, Manchester, CDA, Sara Tomison, Ormskirk, West Richard Mccaig, Belfast, [email protected] John Ashall, Manchester, Lancashire Borough Council, Osborne King, richard.mccaig@ Sprin PCC Ltd, john.asahll@ [email protected] osborneking.com Christine Deane, Liverpool, West springandco.co.uk Lancashire Borough Council, Sean Reed, Carlisle, Sean C. Rory McConnell, Belfast, [email protected] John Fifield, Manchester, Fifield Reed Ltd (Chartered Surveyors), McConnell Chartered Glyn Ltd, john.fifield@fifieldglyn. [email protected] Surveyors, rory.mcconnell@ Christopher Learmont-Hughes, com mcconnellproperty.com Liverpool, Burland Limited, Simon Isherwood, Manchester, [email protected] John R A MacDonald, Sidev Ltd, [email protected] Thomas Loughlin, Belfast, Manchester, MacDonald Hogg, Cushman & Wakefield, thomas. Colin Chivers, Chester, CP [email protected] Stephen Kirk, Liverpool, [email protected] Property Consultants Ltd, colin. Liverpool City Council, stephen. [email protected] Jonathan Batty, Manchester, [email protected] Tristan Aiken MRICS MSCSI, Morgan SIndall, jonathanrbatty@ Belfast, Translink Co Ltd., tristan. Colin Eldridge, Manchester, gmail.com Stewart Holland, Liverpool, [email protected] Gardiner & Theobald, colin. Peacock stevens & Co, stewart_ [email protected] Kevin Tobin, Manchester, Jacobs [email protected] Scotland UK, [email protected] Damien Gibbs, Preston, Garside T Mallinson, Chester, hodkinson Alan simpson, Edinburgh, Wasps Waddingham Surveyors, damien. Malcolm Simister, Bury, Greater mallinson ltd, t.mallinson@ Limited, alan@waspsstudios. gibbs@garsidewaddingham. Manchester, Bury Council, hodmal.co.uk org.uk co.uk [email protected] Terence Carnes, Manchester, Alexander, Aberdeen, A B Robb Daniel Pryce, Manchester, Mark Armstrong, Manchester, Live Nation, terry.surveyor@ Ltd, [email protected] PIN Property Consultancy Ltd, FGA Contracting Ltd, outlook.com [email protected] [email protected] Chris Paterson, Edinburgh, burns Tom Carew, Birkenhead, Smith & and partners, [email protected] David Currie, Liverpool, David Mark Bullock, Congleton, Mark Sons, [email protected] Currie 7 Co, david@davidcurrie. Bullock & Company, mail@ D Bruce, Edinburgh, The City co.uk markbullock.co.uk Northern Ireland of Edinburgh Council, deborah. [email protected] David Porter BSc MRICS, Martin Andrew Walton BSc Anthony Jackson, Londonderry, Liverpool, Knight Frank, david. FRICS, Tameside, Waltons, Martin Property Group, David Cairns, Glasgow, David [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Cairns Consultants Ltd, david@ cairnsco.net David Porter BSc MRICS, Matthew Salt, Manchester, David Wright, Belfast, CBRE, Manchester, Knight Frank, david. Emerson Management Services, [email protected] David Castles, Glasgow, Ian [email protected] [email protected] Philp Glasgow Ltd, david@ Fiona, Ballymena, Homes philpholdings.co.uk Duncan Young, Penrith, Mere Nick Wdowczyk MRICS, Independent, fiona@ Commercial, duncanyoung60@ Manchester, Walker Sime, homesindependent.co.uk Edward Freeman, Glasgow, outlook.com [email protected] Network Rail, edward.freeman@ Grant Robinson, Belfast, Tempus networkrail.co.uk Fiona Hull, Stockport, Paul Flower, Liverpool, Pennant Project Management, grant@ Construction Q, fiona.hull@ Flower, paul@pennantflower. tempuspm.co.uk Edward Holt, Edinburgh, constructionq.co.uk co.uk Cowiesburn, edward.holt6@ Henry Taggart MRICS, btinternet.com George Melland-Dale, Paul nolan BSc FRICS, Bury, Coleraine, O’Connor Kennedy Manchester, Henry Boot, Nolan Redshaw, paul@ Turtle, [email protected] Emma Mackay, Irvine, [email protected] nolanredshaw.co.uk North Ayrshire Council, emmamackay@north-ayrshire. gov.uk

15 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

Euan Burns, Glasgow, M7 REAL Allan Pickering, Winchester, G A Willey, Chelmsford, T Jean Howe, Luton, Kirkby ESTATE LIMITED, euan.burns@ Goadsby, allan.pickering@ Rippon Estates Ltd, geoff@ Diamond, jean.howe@ m7re.eu goadsby.com rippons.co.uk kirkbydiamond.co.uk

Iain Love, Glasgow, Glasgow Andrew Challinor, Stamford, Gerard Copps, Newbury, Deal Jeremy Braybrooke, City Council, iain.love@glasgow. Challinor & Co Limited, Varney, [email protected] Southampton, Osmond gov.uk andrewc@challinorproperty. Brookes, jeremy.braybrooke@ co.uk Gerard Tvedt, Sunningdale, osmondbrookes.co.uk Ike Ibekwe, Aberdeen, Ryden Tvedt Group Ltd, gerrytvedt@ LLP, [email protected] Andrew Reed, South East, RS tvedt.co.uk Jeremy Cracknell, London Retail, [email protected] and the South East, DP World J S MacDonald, Edinburgh, Giles Blagden, Reading, Hicks London Gateway, jeremy. JSM Developments, jim@ B R Pickett MRICS, Basingstoke Baker, g.blagden@hicksbaker. [email protected] jsmdevelopments.co.uk / Hampshire, Baker Davidson co.uk Thomas, brian.pickett@bdt. John Parker, London & South Julie McWilliam, Aberdeen, uk.com Giles Worrall, South East, East, Terrarossa Project, john@ Equinor, juliemcwilliam@hotmail. Cluttons, giles.worrall@cluttons. terrarossaproject.co.uk co.uk Christopher J White BSc MRICS, com Banbury, White Commercial Ltd, John Pike, Maidstone, King & Keith J Baker, Galashiels, Keith [email protected] Gordon Muiir, Reading, Hicks Johnston, john.pike2@outlook. Baker, [email protected] Baker, [email protected] com Christopher J White BSc MRICS, Kevin Caffrey, Glasgow, GVA, Bicester, White Commercial Ltd, Graham Jacobs, Portsmouth, John Purcell, Newcastle, [email protected] [email protected] Trafalgar Property Galecroft, john@ Consultancy Ltd, graham@ galecroftsolutions.co.uk Louise Adams, Dumfries, Christopher Marriott FRICS, trafalgarpropertyconsultancy. Dumfries and Galloway Council, Faringdon, Oxon, Marriotts co.uk Jonathan Hunnibal, London/ [email protected] Property LLP, christopher. South East, Glenny LLP, [email protected] Graham Mitchell, Gravesend, [email protected] Michael Levack, Edinburgh, Caxtons, gmitchell@caxtons. Harrison & Duff Ltd, michael@ Colin Brades, Brighton & Hove, com Jonathan Mack, Horsham, West harrisonandduff.co.uk GVA, [email protected] Sussex, Crickmay Chartered Graham Preston, Brighton, Surveyors, [email protected] Olusoladotun Faleye, Aberdeen, Colin Davies FRICS, Brighton, Preston Associates, GVJB, olusoladotunf@yahoo. Graves Son & Pilcher, cd@gsp. [email protected] Josh Olney, Ashford, Sibley com uk.com Pares, josh.olney@sibleyapres. hugh mc shane, Brighton and co.uk Richard Evans, Aberdeen, Knight David Boyden, Colchester, Hove, crickmay chartered Frank LLP, richard.evans@ Boydens, david.boyden@ surveyors, [email protected] Les O’Gorman, London/ knightfrank.com boydens.co.uk South East, UCB Celltech, les. I T Bell, Winchester, Pearsons [email protected] Richard Fox, Glasgow, Richard David Hall, Haywards Heath, Commercial, ian.bell@pearsons. Fox Chartered Surveyor, David Hall & Company, com Lewis Diamant, London/ [email protected] [email protected] South East, Land Commercial Iain Steele FRICS, Farnham, Surveyors Ltd, lewis@ Richard Higgins, Edinburgh, David Martin BSc FRICS, Hove, Park Steele, iain@parksteele. landcommercial.co.uk CKD Galbraith LLP, richard. Stiles Harold Williams, dmartin@ com [email protected] shw.co.uk Lindsay Armer, London/South Ian, Portsmouth, Cyan Power East, Workman Retail & Leisure, Robert Evans, Edinburgh, Ryden David Martin BSc FRICS, CPM Limited, imp@cyanpower. [email protected] LLP, [email protected] Brighton, Stiles Harold Williams, com [email protected] Lisa Mercer, Isle Of Wight, HRD Simon Metcalfe, Edinburgh, J R Spacey, Maidstone, Cobbs Commercial, lisamercer@hrdiw. Gleeds Cost Management, David Plaskow FRICS, Rayleigh Consultancy, cobbconsult@ co.uk [email protected] Area, Hair and Son LLP, gmail.com [email protected] Mark Skelton MRICS, Epsom, Steven, Glasgow, Morris James Clay BSc FRICS, Stiles Harold Williams, Property Management Ltd, Ed Schryver, Ashford, Kent, Basingstoke, London Clancy, [email protected] [email protected] Balfour Beatty, ed.schryver@ [email protected] balfourbeatty.com Martin Trundle, Chichester West South East James Hartley, Wokingham, Sussex, Henry Adams, martin. Emma Goodford, South East Gleeds, jim.hartley@gleeds. [email protected] Adrian Dolan MRICS, High Home Counties., Knight co.uk Wycombe, Duncan Bailey Frank LLP, emma.goodford@ Matthew Pellerea, South Kennedy LLP, adriand@dbk. knightfrank.com James Roberts, Canterbury, East, Matthew Pellereau Ltd, co.uk James Roberts Property [email protected] Francis Tomlinson, Hitchin, Consultancy, james@ Alison Owen, Maidstone, Martine Aitchison Raffety, francis. jrpropertyconsult.co.uk Waghorn Chartered Surveyors, [email protected] [email protected]

16 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

Matthew Sadler, Maidstone, Roger Falcon, Amersham, C Berry, Exeter, Vickery Holman, Lloyd Smale FRICS, Exeter, Sibley Pares Chartered Josling & Hamlyn, rmfalcon@ [email protected] Drew Pearce, lms@drewpearce. Surveyor’s, mattys_207@ josham.co.uk co.uk hotmail.com Carl Jenkin, Truro, SBC S Willington, Southampton, Property, [email protected] Malcolm White MRICS, Exeter, Melissa DeOliveira, Brighton, Simpson Hilder, willingtonsteve@ The Robinson White Partnership, RLF, melissa.deoliveira@rlf. gmail.com Chris, Bristol, C Squared malcolmwhite@robinson-white. co.uk Property Developments Ltd, com Sandra Mullins, Luton, [email protected] Michael Barber, Portsmouth, Luton Borough Council, Marcus Arundell, Bath, MBB Property Services Ltd, [email protected] Craig Keogh, Bristol, Savills, HomeLets, marcus@ mbbpropertyservice@outlook. [email protected] homeletsbath.co.uk com Shaun Walters BSc MRICS, Reading, Parksinon Holt, D.Brazil, Cheltenham, J.Sisk Matthew Blaken, Bristol, DJ&P Mitchell, Newbury, Greenham [email protected] Rail, [email protected] Newland Rennie, matthew@ Business Park Ltd, mitch@ djandp.co.uk greenham-business-park.co.uk Stephen A Richmond BSc David Perry, Redruth, Wm MRICS, Sevenoaks / Crayford G Weller & Son Ltd, david@ Matthew Higgs, Totnes, Neil Woodward, Woking, / Dartford / Maidstone, Altus, wmweller.co.uk Michelmore Hughes stags, Moyallen, nwoodward321@ stephen.richmond@altusgroup. [email protected] btinternet.com com David Roberts, Bristol, Cubex Land, joshroberts@cubex-land. Michael Oldrieve, Exeter, Nick Berrill, Botley, Savills, Stephen Laker, Crawley, Lakers com Vickery Holman, moldrieve@ [email protected] LLP, [email protected] vickeryholman.com George Ponsford, Salisbury, Paul Bird, Braintree, Joscelyne Steven Griffin BSc FRICS, Public Health England, george. Michael T Ripley FRICS, Chase, paul@joscelynechase. Wokingham, Pennicott Chartered [email protected] Weston-Super-Mare, Stephen & co.uk Surveyors, surveys@pennicott. co, [email protected] com Gideon, Wellington, Foxmoor Paul Rowland, Winchester, Gysin Ltd, [email protected] Neil Atkinson, Taunton, Neil Warr Limited, prowland3@gmail. Stuart Clark, Worthing, West Atkinson & Co, neil@neil- com Sussex, Marshall Clark LLP, Heather Holloway, Bristol, atkinson.co.uk [email protected] Country Property Agents, Peter Atkinson, Woking, wadham heatherholloway@ Neil Piper, Bristol, Bristol City and isherwood management, Victoria Parker, Goudhurst, Kent, countryproperty.co.uk Council, [email protected]. [email protected] Spurdown, victoria.parker@ uk spurdown.co.uk Henry Lang, Bristol, Rapleys, Peter Dalby, Southampton, [email protected] Nigel Tansley, Gloucester, R Holloway Iliffe & Mitchell, peter@ William Hinckley, Canterbury, williams building, nigeltansley@ hi-m.co.uk BTF Partnership, william. Hugh Collins, Bristol, Alder King, hotmail.com [email protected] [email protected] Peter Ridsdale Smith, Tunbridge Oliver Knox, Plymouth, Enelco Wells, Bracketts, peter@ South West Hux Norman, Bristol, Loungers, ltd, [email protected] bracketts.co.uk [email protected] A R Edgcumbe FRICS, Taunton, Paterson, Taunton, Assent BC, Peter Thornley, South East, HNF Larkman Edgcumbe Ltd., ae@ James Dean, Bath, Western [email protected] Property, [email protected] larkmanedgcumbe.co.uk building consultants, james@ wbcbath.co.uk Paul Bennett MRICS, Exeter, Philip, Beaconsfield, PMCD, Andrew, Plymouth, Ireland Ravenslade, pbennett@ [email protected] Weller, andrew01@irelandweller. John Mullen, Bath, John Mullen ravenslade.co.uk co.uk Building Surveying, john@ R Hill, Salisbury, HBAS Ltd, johnmullenbuildingsurveying. Paul Maquire FRICS, [email protected] Andrew Farrell, Cheltenham, co.uk Cheltenham, John Ryde Maxcis Limited, andrew@ Commercial, paulmaguire@ Richard Phillips, Andover, maxcis.co.uk John Plimmer FRICS, Exeter, johnryde.co.uk Waverley surveys ltd, richard@ private investor, jcoplimmere@ wbicdevelopments.co.uk Andrew Hosking BSc MRICS, gmail.com Paul Whitmarsh, Swindon, Barnstaple / Exeter / Torbay, Whitmarsh Lockhart, paul@ Robbie Franklin, Gosport, Stratton Creber Commercial, Jon Marriott, Salisbury, Ward whitmarshlockhart.com Ordnance Survey, robbie. [email protected] Williams, jonmarriott1983@ [email protected] gmail.com Peter Davy, Bournemouth, Andrew Kilpatrick, Swindon, James and Sons, peterdavy@ Robert Bushnell, Portsmouth, Kilpatrick & Co, a.kilpatrick@ Kim Moreton, Bristol, 2M jamesandsons.co.uk Robert Bushnell Chartered kilpatrick-cpc.co.uk Research and Survey, Surveyors, [email protected] [email protected] Phil Pratt, Gloucester, Alder Ashleigh Phillips, Plymouth, King, [email protected] Robert Lee, Portsmouth, Bruton Knowles, ashleigh. Leslie Warren, Bristol, G4S Hants Realty Ltd, robert.lee@ [email protected] Cash Solutions (UK) Ltd., leslie. Phil Wiltshire, Cornwall & Devon, hantsrealty.co.uk [email protected] Philips Rogers Ltd., pwiltshire@ philipsrogers.co.uk

17 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

Richard Harrison, Exeter, Taylor [email protected] Alan Pemberton, Birmingham, [email protected] Wimpey, richard.harrison@ TFT LLP, apemberton@ taylorwimpey.com Edward, Cardiff, Magnus Real tftconsultants.com Jonathan Preece BSc MRICS, Estate, edwardalockyer@gmail. Hereford, Jonathan D Preece Robert Holley, Stow-On-The- com Andy Venables, Birmingham, Surveyors & Commercial Agents, Wold and North Cotswolds, GVA, andrew.venables@gva. [email protected] Tayler and Fletcher, robert. Gareth, Cardiff, WSP, gareth. co.uk [email protected] [email protected] L Thacker, Birmingham, GVA, Anthony Rowland MRICS, [email protected] Robin Tulloch, Bristol, Whitehead Gareth John Davies, Llanelli, Evesham, Sheldon Allen, robin.tulloch13@gmail. Total Quantity Surveying Ltd, Bosley Knight, trowland@ Mark Lenton FRICS, com [email protected] sheldonbosleyknight.co.uk Birmingham, KWB Property Management Ltd., mlenton@ Russell Porter, Teignmouth, Jamie, Newport, Hutchings & Caroline Norton, Birmingham, kwboffice.com Porter Planning Economics Ltd, Thomas Chartered Surveyors, Pall mall, carolinenoryon@live. [email protected] [email protected] co.uk Mark Wright, Birmingham, Trebor Developments, mark.wright@ Ryan Holmes, Yeovil, Humberts, Jason Thorne, Swansea, Chris Burrows, Birmingham, C trebordevelopments.co.uk [email protected] Lambert Smith Hampton, J Burrows Consulting, chris@ [email protected] chrisburrows.plus.com Martin Hill, Birmingham, Robert Simon Greenslade BSc Sterling Surveyors, martin.hill@ MRICS, Exeter, Stratton Creber Jonathan Williams, Wrexham, Craig Herrick, Birmingham, rssllp.co.uk Commercial, simon@sccexeter. Jon Williams Commercial LLP, CBRE, [email protected] co.uk [email protected] Michael Jones FRICS, Bromyard David Lodowski, National Remit, / Worcestor, Michael D Jones, Simon Walsham, Bournemouth Kathryn Morris, Swansea, Pobl, Answering For All Regions, mdjones@charteredsurveyor@ Poole and Christchurch, James [email protected] 3PL Real Estate, david. virgin.net and Sons, simonwalsham@ [email protected] jamesandsons.co.uk Keith Pritchard, Swansea, Encon N Ziel, Stratford-Upon- construction ltd, kpritchard@ Gary Berns, Birmingham, Avon, Lucid Property, nina@ Tim Maggs, Bristol, Maggs & encon.uk.com Galliford Try, gary.berns@ lucidproperty.co.uk Allen, timm@maggsandallen. gallifordtry.co.uk co.uk Michael Bruce, Cardiff, Neil harris, Birmingham, Harris DLP Surveyors, michael@ Graham Jones, Lichfield, Lamb, neil.harris@harrislamb. Tim Western, Exeter, JLL, tim. dlpsurveyors.co.uk Kingston Commercial Property com [email protected] Consultants, graham.jones@ Peter Graham BSc FRICS, kingstoncpc.co.uk Nick Bird, Birmingham, Homes Tim Wright, Yeovil, RMW Knight, Cardiff, , pgraham@ England, nicholas.bird@ [email protected] geraldeve.com Greg Meadwell, Birmingham, homesengland.gov.uk Johnson Fellows, greg. Toby Fisher, Bristol, Maggs & Richard Ryan BSc FRICS, [email protected] Nick Waddington, Birmingham, Allen, tfisher@maggsandallen. Cardiff / Bridgend, Fletcher MWRE, nick.waddington@mwre. co.uk Morgan, richard.ryan@ Harvinder Bains, co.uk fletchermorgan.co.uk Wolverhampton, South Wales Shtaffordshire District Council, Peter Burnett, Staffs, Chivers Robert Ladd MRICS, Cardiff, [email protected] commercial, pburnett@ Amanda Pennock, Newport, Dwr Cushman & Wakefield, rob,. chiverscommercial.co.uk Cymru Welsh Water, amanda. [email protected] Iain Mills, Birmingham, Johnson [email protected] Fellows, [email protected] Peter Holt BSc FRICS, Rugby Rowland Jones, Swansea, / Leamington Spa / Coventry / Andrew Morgan Frics, Lampeter, Rowland Jones Chartered J A Nichols BSc MRICS, Burton- Nuneaton, D & P Holt, peter@ Morgan and davies, lampeter@ Surveyors, rowland@ On-Trent, Gadsby Orridge Ltd., holtcommercial.co.uk morgananddavies.co.uk rowlandjones.co.uk andrewnichols@gadsbynichols. co.uk Ralph Minott, Birmingham, Anthony Jenkins, Cardiff, Jenkins Thomas Griffiths, Cardiff, Cardiff Calthorpe Esated, ralph.minott@ Best, [email protected] Council, tom17griffiths@gmail. Jack Edwards, Birmingham, sky.com com Naismiths LLP, jack.edwardsj8@ Barry Jones, Anglesey, Anglesey gmail.com Rhys Sandbrook, Bromsgrove, County Council, bwjht@ West Midlands R O Sandbrook Ltd, enquiries@ anglesey.gov.uk Jason Coombes, Birmingham, rosandbrook.co.uk Abita Robinson, Birmingham, Cottons Chartered Surveyors, Ben Bolton MRICS, Cardiff, West Midlands Combined [email protected] Richard Clader BSc FRICS, Cooke & Arkwright, ben.bolton@ Authority, [email protected] Lichfield, Calders, richard. coark.com Jeremy Payne, Birmingham, calderssurveyors.com Adam Goodwin MRICS, C&W, jeremy.payne@cushwake. Chris Sutton, Cardiff, JLL, chris. Herefordshire and com Russell Gwilliam, Birmingham, [email protected] Worcestershire, John Goodwin Gateley Capitus Limited, russell. FRICS, adam@johngoodwin. Jonathan Moore MRICS, [email protected] Clare Stowell, Milford Haven, co.uk Coventry, Holt Commercial, Port of Milford Haven, clare.

18 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Contributor details

Stefanie Herkner, London, Graeme Haigh MRICS, Paul Nunn MRICS, Sheffield, Stenprop, steffi.herkner@ Huddersfield, Bramleys LLP, Wates Construction, paul.nunn@ stenprop.com [email protected] hotmail.co.uk

Stephen R. L. Phillips, Hereford, Jacob West, Leeds, Sanderson Peter C G Rhodes, Leeds, VOA, Herefordshire Housing Ltd., Weatherall LLP, jake.west@ [email protected] [email protected] sw.co.uk Richard Corby BSc (Hons) Tony Hargreave, Birmingham, James Mckelvie, Leeds, MRICS, Leeds, Lambert Smith AC LLOYD, anthony.hargreave@ Sanderson weatherall, james. Hampton, [email protected] sky.com [email protected] Richard Ellison, Leeds, Babcock Tony Rushton, Newcastle James O’Hearne, Leeds, Carter International, richard.ellison@ Under Lyme, InHealth Group, Towler, james.ohearne@ babcockinternational.com [email protected] cartertowler.co.uk Robin Beagley, Leeds, WSB Yorkshire & the Humber James Swann, Sheffield, Fowler Property Consultants LLP, Sandford LLP, james.swann@ [email protected] Alan Dickinson FRICS, Hull, fowlersandford.com Dukes Sutton & Dickinson, Simon Hollis, Sheffield, CEG, [email protected]. James Thornton, London, [email protected] co.uk Rosemount Estates, [email protected] Stephen Brigg, Bradford, Michael Andrew Clark BSc FRICS, Eyres Partnership LLP, stephen. Scunthorpe / Kingston upon John Reeves, York, Helmsley [email protected] Hull / Grimsby / Brigg / Beverley, group, john-reeves@helmsley. Clark Weightman, andrewclark@ co.uk Stephen Byrne, Sowerby clarkweightman.co.uk Bridge West Yorkshire, Stephen Lydia Martin, Leeds, Sanderson Byrne Associates, steve@ Andrew Pang, Wakefield, Weatherall, [email protected]. stephenbyrne.biz Livingston Clark Surveyors, uk [email protected] Timothy, Harrogate, M W Darwin, Northallerton, M W Parker Beevers Ltd, tim@ Barry Seal, Barnsley, Wilbys, Darwin & Sons, info@darwin- parkerbeevers.co.uk [email protected] homes.co.uk Tom West MRICS, Leeds, Brenden Shildrick, Doncaster, Malcolm Stuart, York, Malcolm Sanderson Weatherall, tom. Bradley Mason LLP, brenden. Stuart Property Consultants, [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Carl Howarth, Bradford, Salts Mark Brearley MRICS, Bradford, Estates Ltd, [email protected]. Mark Brearley & Company, uk [email protected]

Carl Wright, Leeds, Jack Lunn Mark Carling, Skipton, Carling (Properties) Ltd, carl.wright@ Jones, [email protected] jacklunn.co.uk Mark Liversidge, Rotherham, Chris Hartnell, Leeds, Carter RMBC, mark.liversidge75@ Jonas, chris.hartnell@ btinternet.com carterjonas.co.uk Matthew Austin, Leeds, Robert Christopher Hewison, York, Austin & Co., matthew.austin@ Charters-Reid ltd, chris.joanne@ robert-austin.co.uk gmail.com Matthew Tomlinson, Hull, Dan Slater, Leeds, WSB Doric Surveyors, matthew@ Property, dslater@wsbproperty. doricsurveyors.com co.uk Michael Beech, Skipton, WBW Daniel Cook, Leeds, John Surveyors Ltd., michael@ Graham Construction, daniel. wbwsurveyors.co.uk [email protected] Nicholas Coultish, Hull, Scotts David J Martindale, Wakefield, Property LLP, nick@scotts- FSL, david.martindale@fslea. property.co.uk com Paul Arrandale, Bradford, Emma, Sheffield, Monaghans, Arrandale and Associates, [email protected] [email protected]

19 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Q4 2018: UK Commercial Property Market Survey rics.org/economics

Information

RICS Commercial Property Market Survey Management

Tarrant Parsons Economist t: +44 (0)20 7695 1585 e: [email protected]

Simon Rubinsohn Chief Economist t: +44 (0)20 7334 3774 e: [email protected]

Contributors

Survey questionnaires were sent out on the 13 December with responses received until 11 January. Number of contributors to this survey : 692 Survey responses were gathered in conjunction with

For contributor database enquiries please contact: Janet Guilfoyle t: +44 (0)20 7334 3890 e: [email protected]

For data subscription enquiries please contact: Tarrant Parsons Economist t: +44 (0)20 7695 1585 e: [email protected]

20 © RICS Economics 2019 Q4 2018 Confidence through professional standards RICS promotes and enforces the highest professional We believe that standards underpin effective markets. With qualifications and standards in the development and up to seventy per cent of the world’s wealth bound up in land management of land, real estate, construction and and real estate, our sector is vital to economic development, infrastructure. Our name promises the consistent helping to support stable, sustainable investment and growth delivery of standards – bringing confidence to the around the globe. markets we serve. With offices covering the major political and financial centres We accredit 118,000 professionals and any individual or firm of the world, our market presence means we are ideally placed registered with RICS is subject to our quality assurance. Their to influence policy and embed professional standards. We expertise covers property, asset valuation and real estate work at a cross-governmental level, delivering international management; the costing and leadership of construction standards that will support a safe and vibrant marketplace projects; the development of infrastructure; and the in land, real estate, construction and infrastructure, for the management of natural resources, such as mining, farms and benefit of all. woodland. From environmental assessments and building We are proud of our reputation and we guard it fiercely, so controls to negotiating land rights in an emerging economy; clients who work with an RICS professional can have confidence if our members are involved the same professional standards in the quality and ethics of the services they receive. and ethics apply.

United Kingdom RICS HQ Ireland Europe Middle East Parliament Square, London 38 Merrion Square, Dublin 2, (excluding UK and Ireland) Office G14, Block 3, SW1P 3AD Ireland Rue Ducale 67, Knowledge Village, t +44 (0)24 7686 8555 t +353 1 644 5500 1000 Brussels, Dubai, United Arab Emirates f +44 (0)20 7334 3811 f +353 1 661 1797 Belgium t +971 4 446 2808 [email protected] [email protected] t +32 2 733 10 19 f +971 4 427 2498 Media enquiries f +32 2 742 97 48 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Africa Americas South America Oceania PO Box 3400, One Grand Central Place, Rua Maranhão, 584 – cj 104, Suite 1, Level 9, Witkoppen 2068, 60 East 42nd Street, Suite 2810, São Paulo – SP, Brasil 1 Castlereagh Street, South Africa New York 10165 – 2811, USA t +55 11 2925 0068 Sydney NSW 2000. Australia t +27 11 467 2857 t +1 212 847 7400 [email protected] t +61 2 9216 2333 f +27 86 514 0655 f +1 212 847 7401 f +61 2 9232 5591 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

North Asia ASEAN Japan South Asia 3707 Hopewell Centre, 10 Anson Road, Level 14 Hibiya Central Building, 48 & 49 Centrum Plaza, 183 Queen’s Road East #06-22 International Plaza, 1-2-9 Nishi Shimbashi Minato-Ku, Sector Road, Sector 53, Wanchai, Hong Kong Singapore 079903 Tokyo 105-0003, Japan Gurgaon – 122002, India t +852 2537 7117 t +65 6635 4242 t +81 3 5532 8813 t +91 124 459 5400 f +852 2537 2756 f +65 6635 4244 f +81 3 5532 8814 f +91 124 459 5402 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

rics.org