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Resources and Energy Quarterly March 2020

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Resources and Energy Quarterly March 2020 1 Further information Creative Commons licence For more information on data or government initiatives please access the report Attribution 4.0 International Licence from the Department’s website at: www.industry.gov.au/oce CC BY 4.0 Editor All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence, with the exception of: David Thurtell • the Commonwealth Coat of Arms; • content supplied by third parties; Chapter Authors • logos; and Resource and energy overview: David Thurtell • any material protected by trademark or otherwise noted in this publication. Macroeconomic overview, oil: Nathan Pitts Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence is a standard form licence COVID-19: Esther Harvey agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from Steel and iron ore, uranium: Mark Gibbons https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Metallurgical and thermal coal: Nikolai Drahos Wherever a third party holds copyright in material contained in this publication, Gas: Monica Philalay the copyright remains with that party. Their permission may be required to use the material. Please contact them directly. Gold, aluminium, alumina and bauxite: Thuong Nguyen Copper, nickel: Kate Martin Attribution Zinc, lithium: Caroline Lewis Content contained herein should be attributed as follows: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Commonwealth of Acknowledgements Australia Resources and Energy Quarterly March 2020. The Commonwealth of The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of: Australia does not necessarily endorse the content of this publication. Matt Boyce, Melissa Bray, Lou Brooks, Russ Campbell, Ken Colbert, Lauren Pratley. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to [email protected] Cover image source: Shutterstock ISSN 1839-5007 Disclaimer Vol. 10, no. 1 The views expressed in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily © Commonwealth of Australia 2020 reflect those of the Australian Government or the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources. Ownership of intellectual property rights This publication is not legal or professional advice. The Commonwealth of Australia does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the information and data in the Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) publication. Third parties rely upon this publication entirely at their own risk. in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia. 2 Contents Foreword 4 Resources insights About the edition 5 Macroeconomic Outlook Overview 6 2.1: COVID–2019 18 Macroeconomic Outlook 15 Macroeconomic Outlook Steel 26 2.2: US-China Phase One trade deal 20 Iron Ore 31 Gas 7.1: US-China trade deal — implications for Australian LNG 67 Metallurgical Coal 38 Thermal Coal 47 Oil 8.1: Impacts of diplomatic tensions on oil markets 75 Gas 60 Oil 71 Uranium 79 Gold 85 Aluminium 92 Copper 101 Trade summary charts and tables 125 Nickel 107 Appendix A: Definitions and classifications 133 Zinc 113 Appendix B: Glossary 135 Lithium 119 Appendix C: Contact details 141 3 Foreword Each March, the Resources and Energy Quarterly publishes an extended However, to credit this earnings boom purely to ‘price growth’ would be to miss decades of careful work, investment, innovation and automation, all five-year commodity outlook. The annual ‘big picture’ forecast seeks to of which have driven significant improvements in productivity and scale, look beyond immediate issues — e.g., trade tensions, COVID-19 — and considers some of the underlying, longer-term factors which affect placing Australia at the heart of the global iron ore market. Australia now commodity markets. As the world continues to urbanise, industrialise, and accounts for more than half of all global iron ore exports. This makes Australia crucial to the global economy itself, since steel is a vital input to improve its technology, commodities will continue to play a vital role. energy, infrastructure, housing, construction, transportation and all forms In recent decades, China’s economy witnessed deep industrialisation and of machinery. In addition to its pivotal role across other industries, steel is an injection of large quantities of iron, steel and coal. The next wave of among the world’s largest industries in its own right. emerging economies — such as India — could feature relatively less Another major industry — and similarly critical to the global economy — is manufacturing and more in services and information technology. Their gas and oil. Here, too, Australia has become more important over time, energy and transport systems may also develop differently. All these trends would add significant opportunities for commodities such as copper, emerging as the world’s top exporter of LNG in late 2019. Our exports of lithium, nickel, LNG, and aluminium. coal, gas and uranium make Australia pivotal to global energy markets. And our resources of lithium, copper, nickel and zinc are likely to hold us in This edition shows Australia’s resources and energy exports are expected good stead for the future. to reach $299 billion in 2019–20, before easing back in subsequent years as some of the surprising price gains of recent quarters unwind. However, Unavoidably, the outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus) will have some the possibility remains for new records to be set if prices continue to effect on forecasts for this edition. It is assumed that this event will have an impact on Chinese and global GDP in the first half of 2020, with the surprise on the upside. effects largely playing out by June 2020, though at the time of writing, this The classic case here is iron ore, which faced severe supply disruptions remained a rapidly evolving issue. following the collapse of the tailings dam at the Brumadinho iron ore mine in Brazil in early 2019. With reduced supply, iron ore prices surged above While near-term factors such as COVID-19 and trade tensions are often the focus of commodity analysis, a look at the bigger picture shows untold US$100 a tonne in 2019, but were gradually correcting — until another potential and a host of new opportunities as development progresses over wave of floods in Brazil and a cyclone in the Pilbara region of Western Australia sent prices spiking again in early 2020. This is leading to a the longer term in Asia, Africa and South America. Australia’s prospects as second surge in iron ore export revenue, making it likely that in 2019–20, a resource and energy commodity exporter continue to remain strong. iron ore will be the first commodity to exceed $100 billion in export earnings over a single year. Resources and Energy Quarterly March 2020 4 About this edition The global environment in which Australia’s producers compete can change rapidly. Each edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly The Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) contains the Office of the factors in these changes, and makes appropriate alterations to the Chief Economist’s forecasts for the value, volume and price of Australia’s forecasts/projections, by estimating the impact on Australian producers major resources and energy commodity exports. and the value of their exports. A ‘medium term’ (five year) outlook is published in the March quarter In this report, commodities are grouped into two broad categories, edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly. Each June, September referred to as ‘resources’ and ‘energy’. ‘Energy’ commodities comprise and December edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly features a metallurgical and thermal coal, oil, gas and uranium. ‘Resource’ ‘short term’ (two year) outlook for Australia’s major resource and energy commodities in this report are all other mineral commodities. commodity exports. The December Resources and Energy Quarterly also includes the annual Major Projects update. Unless otherwise stated, all Australian and US dollar figures in this report are in real (2020) terms. Inflation and exchange rate assumptions are Underpinning the forecasts/projections contained in the Resources and provided in tables 2.1 and 2.2 in the macroeconomic outlook chapter. Energy Quarterly is the Office of the Chief Economist’s outlook for global resource and energy commodity prices, demand and supply. The The impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak are assumed to affect Chinese and forecasts/projections for Australia’s resource and energy commodity global commodity demand over the first half of 2020, with a return to exporters are reconciled with this global context. normal in the third quarter of the year. Data in this edition of the Resources and Energy Quarterly is current as of 6 March 2020. Resources and Energy Quarterly publication schedule Publication Expected release date Outlook period final year June 2020 29 June 2020 Australian data: 2021–22 World data: 2022 September 2020 28 September 2020 Australian data: 2021–22 World data: 2022 December 2020 21 December 2020 Australian data: 2021–22 World data: 2022 March 2021 26 March 2021 Australian data: 2025–26 World data: 2026 Source: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources (2020) Resources and Energy Quarterly March 2020 5 1.1 Summary Figure 1.1: Australia’s resource and energy export values/volumes . In the first quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak has moved the 125 300 prices of some commodities — notably, oil and base metals (down) and gold (up). Assuming China’s economy is largely back to normal by 100 240 the second half of 2020, these moves are likely to be fully unwound by then. Thereafter, supply issues will largely drive price moves. 20 = 20 = 100 75 180 . Iron ore prices have steadied at high levels, as supply problems offset – 20 A$ 20 A$ billion demand worries. Coal prices have steadied after the sharp declines of 50 120 – 2019. Base and precious metal prices have wavered (in opposite 2019 directions), on concerns about the COVID-19 outbreak.
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