australian commodities march quarter 07.1 GPO Box 1563 Canberra 2601 Telephone +61 2 6272 2000 abareconomics.com ABARE is a professionally independent government economic research agency editor andrew wright ABARE project 1163 © Commonwealth of Australia 2007 Selected passages, tables and diagrams may be reproduced provided due acknowledgment is made ISSN 1321-7844 abare contents economic overview 5 outlook for Australia’s commodity sector 19 australian agriculture – key issues for the future 22 jammie penm and phillip glyde commodity outlook to 2011-12 grains – wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds 27 sugar 42 wine 46 natural fi bres – wool, cotton 52 meat – beef and veal, sheep meat, pigs, poultry 62 dairy 73 energy – oil and gas, thermal coal, uranium 81 metals – steel and steel making raw materials, metallurgical coal, gold, aluminium and alumina, nickel, copper, zinc 111 abare papers presented at outlook 2007 global trade liberalisation – opportunities for Australian farmers 157 roneel nair, q.t. tran, caroline gunning-trant, roslyn wood and don gunasekera adapting to climate change – issues and challenges in the agriculture sector 167 edwina heyhoe, yeon kim, phil kokic, caroline levantis, helal ahammad, karen schneider, steve crimp, rohan nelson, neil fl ood and john carter farm fi nancial performance – Australian farm income, debt and investment, 2004-05 to 2006-07 179 peter martin, colin mues, paul phillips, walter shafron, thuy van mellor, phil kokic, rohan nelson and rhonda treadwell groundwater management - issues affecting the effi cient allocation of groundwater 201 tim goesch, simon hone and peter gooday outlook for biofuels in Australia – the challenges ahead 212 graham love and clara cuevas-cubria australian food industry – performance and competitiveness 221 christopher short, courtney chester, peter berry and lisa elliston statisical tables 227 abare management 264 australian commodities > vol. 14 no. 1 > march quarter 2007 3 R REGIONAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCES across australia in 2007 ABARE’s regional Outlook conferences deliver commodity forecasts and research results directly to rural and regional communities. Each regional Outlook conference delivers thought provoking information, from local agricultural data, climate trends and innovative business practices, through to the global commodity overview. Join other delegates, drawn from a range of industries, government and businesses and discover a new perspective on your region. conference schedule for 2007 QLD Goondiwindi May 16 NSW Griffi th June 6 TAS Launceston July 4 VIC Bairnsdale July 25 WA Geraldton August 22 SA Tailem Bend September 26 NT Darwin October 31 enquiries ph: 02 6272 2303 for further information visit > abareconomics.com economic overviewcontents > jammiecontact penm > +61 > +61 2 6272 2 6272 ???? 2030 > [email protected]> [email protected] economic overview prospects for world economic growth, 2007 to 2012 » World economic growth is assumed to be 4.3 per cent in 2007, compared with an estimated 4.9 per cent in 2006. Over the medium term (to 2012), world economic growth is assumed to ease gradually to around 3.9 per cent a year. » Economic growth in China is expected to remain strong over the short to medium term. Continued growth in commodity demand in China is expected to provide support for commodity prices on world markets. » Under the assumption that the drought will break in the fi rst half of 2007, econ- omic growth in Australia is assumed to increase from 2.5 per cent in 2006-07 to 3.75 per cent in 2007-08. Toward 2011-12, Australian economic growth is assumed to average around 3.0 per cent a year. world economic outlook relatively strong world economic growth in 2006 The global economy experienced robust growth in 2006, despite concerns about higher world oil prices in the fi rst half of the year. In the world’s largest economy, the United States, economic growth was particularly strong in early 2006, before an easing in the latter part of the year. In China, strong economic activity continued, with growth of 10.7 per cent recorded for 2006 as a whole. This impressive growth was achieved despite a number of measures taken by China’s government to slow economic growth, including two interest rate rises and four increases in bank reserve ratios during 2006. In Japan, the economic expansion continued, with gross domestic product, in real terms, rising by an estimated 2.2 per cent in 2006. In western Europe, a number of regional economies, including Germany and France, recorded higher economic growth in 2006. Despite the economic improvements, considerable uncertainty remains about the economic outlook for Japan and western Europe, as the performance of these econo- mies could be adversely affected by continued structural weakness and relatively high unemployment. In other parts of the world, economic growth remained strong in east and south east Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. While higher oil prices pushed up infl ationary pressures in many south east Asian countries in the early part of 2006, a signifi cant rise in world prices for minerals and energy commodities provided support for economic activity in Latin America, cental Asia and the Middle East. On average, world economic growth is estimated to have been around 4.9 per cent in 2006, compared with 4.9 per cent in 2005 and 5.3 per cent in 2004. australian commodities > vol. 14 no. 1 > march quarter 2007 5 economic overview strong world growth supporting commodity prices In response to continued strong global economic growth, and hence higher demand for commodities, prices of many minerals and energy commodities on world markets have risen markedly over the past twelve months. In the year ended January 2007, for example, spot prices (denominated in US dollars) for metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by around 20–30 per cent for copper, lead and aluminium, 80 per cent for zinc and more than doubled for nickel. Partly refl ecting strong demand growth in China, negotiated contract prices for bulk commodities, including iron ore, metallurgical coal and thermal coal, either rose or remained relatively high in 2006. Prospects for commodity prices are crucial to commodity producers and exporters. Currently, a major issue facing the commodity sector is whether strong growth in world commodity demand will continue, leading to a continued increase in world prices in 2007 and beyond. Specifi cally, an important issue in the current commodity outlook is whether robust economic growth will continue in China. The emergence of China as a major world economy has attracted signifi cant attention in recent years. Nowhere has China’s growing economic infl uence been felt more signifi cantly than in world commodity markets. A substantial increase in China’s demand for base metals, minerals and fuels has contrib- uted to the recent strong price rises on world markets for these commodities. world economic growth to ease in 2007 World economic growth is expected to ease in 2007. Economic indicators released recently have provided support for this assessment. In the United States, the pace of economic expansion in 2007 is expected to be lower than in 2006, as weaker activity in the housing market slows residential investment and growth in consumer spending. Nevertheless, business investment is likely to remain strong, especially in light of a recent signifi cant decline in world oil prices, strong corporate profi ts and favourable long term interest rates. In China, economic growth is expected to remain relatively strong in 2007. China’s exceptional economic performance has generated concerns that the economy may be ‘overheating’. In response, China’s government is likely to continue in its efforts to rebal- ance the economy, as it attempts to make growth less dependent on exports and fi xed asset investment, while introducing measures to boost consumer spending. Despite strong economic growth, infl ationary pressures remain low in China, with the consumer price index rising year world economic growth on year by less than 2 per cent in late 2006. While signs of economic improvements are emerging in Japan and western Europe, economic 5 growth in these countries/regions is expected to remain modest in the next few years. In the principal 4 economies of east and south east Asia, including Chinese Taipei, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, 3 economic performance is assumed to remain relatively robust in 2007. Continued strong economic growth in 2 China is expected to provide support for economic performance in this region. In early January 2007, 1 China signed a free trade agreement, covering sixty services industries, with the Association of South East % Asian Nations (ASEAN). Trade between ASEAN 19881992 1996 20002004 2008 2012 and China was around US$160 billion in 2006. 6 australian commodities > vol. 14 no. 1 > march quarter 2007 economic overview In other parts of the world, economic growth is expected to remain strong in Latin America and the Middle East. The short term outlook for the Russian Federation is positive, with an expected increase in foreign investment induced by favourable commodity prices. In the Ukraine, economic growth could be adversely affected in the short term by a possible wors- ening in the terms of trade — mainly refl ecting the repricing of gas imports from the Russian Federation and weaker international prices for the Ukraine’s steel exports. medium term economic growth to be marginally lower In preparing ABARE’s projections, world economic growth is assumed to be 4.3 per