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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly

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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly We are pleased to present Edition 28 of the Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly (GMISQ), a snapshot of the performance, news and trends across the resources and infrastructure services sectors. The final quarter of 2020 saw a continued broad based share price recovery across the sector. The Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Index (GMISI) increased by 20% over the period, outpacing the 14% improvement in the All Ordinaries Index. Of the 50 GMISI constituents, 41 recorded share price increases, including 6 companies that gained more than 50%. Earnings multiples ticked up during the quarter, with the sector’s median PE ratio of 14.2x above its long term average, but still well below the broader market multiple. The observed strengthening of share prices and multiples reflects the industry’s improved earnings outlook, with analysts currently forecasting median annual EBITDA growth of 13% through to FY22. This is consistent with a range of new contract awards and renewals in recent months in both mining and infrastructure, and across construction and operations. Corporate activity has ramped up, led by the continued evolution of the contracting mining landscape with CIMIC’s sale of 50% of Thiess to Elliott and Maca’s purchase of Downer’s Mining West business. Other notable transactions included the IPOs of GenusPlus and Duratec in November. In this edition’s Quarterly Focus we also recap the equity market rollercoaster ride throughout 2020. After a promising start, valuations across the sector dropped significantly over February and March amidst uncertainty regarding the potential impact of COVID-19. Since that time, the GMISI has rebounded strongly, driven by a combination of the strong domestic response to the pandemic, improving commodity prices and government stimulus, including fast-tracked infrastructure projects. Editorial Team Chris Branston Tom Waddell David Burton Harry Pickworth [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Edition 28 Gresham Advisory Partners Ltd is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions and capital advisory 1 February 2021 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. Share Price Movements GMISI Constituents1 Leaders & Laggards (Share Price)1 Ranks Market Cap (A$m) Share Leaders Laggards Company price 179% Dec Sep 31 Dec 20 30 Sep 20 Δ% 1 2 Seven Group Holdings Ltd. (ASX:SVW) 7,924 6,081 30% 2 3 CIMIC Group Ltd. (ASX:CIM) 7,586 5,872 31% 80% 73% 3 5 Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:MIN) 7,063 4,698 50% 70% 57% 4 1 Orica Ltd. (ASX:ORI) 6,149 6,263 -2% 5 4 Worley Ltd. (ASX:WOR) 5,999 4,970 20% 6 6 ALS Ltd. (ASX:ALQ) 4,636 4,443 4% (10%) 7 7 Downer EDI Ltd. (ASX:DOW) 3,738 3,086 21% (12%) (19%) (24%) (27%) 8 8 Monadelphous Group Ltd. (ASX:MND) 1,275 960 33% 9 9 NRW Holdings Ltd. (ASX:NWH) 1,255 866 44% Veris Veem Verbrec Primero 10 11 Perenti Global Ltd. (ASX:PRN) 965 804 20% AJ Lucas 11 10 Service Stream Ltd. (ASX:SSM) 740 838 -12% Mastermyne MMA Offshore Group Boom Logistics Service Stream 12 14 Imdex Ltd. (ASX:IMD) 684 531 29% 13 15 Emeco Holdings Ltd. (ASX:EHL) 620 457 36% 14 12 Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. (ASX:AQZ) 616 563 9% Resource Development 15 13 Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (ASX:MAH) 571 550 4% 16 17 MACA Ltd. (ASX:MLD) 366 221 49% Performance Relative to S&P 200 Indices1 17 16 RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd. (ASX:RUL) 293 257 14% 18 18 Civmec Ltd. (ASX:CVL) 199 189 5% 25% 26% 19 22 Fleetwood Ltd. (ASX:FWD) 197 165 20% 22% 20% 20 23 Mader Group Ltd. (ASX:MAD) 196 161 22% 18% 15% 14% 21 20 Engenco Ltd. (ASX:EGN) 191 166 15% 12% 13% 11% 12% 22 24 EnviroSuite Ltd. (ASX:EVS) 190 159 19% 6% 5% 23 25 GR Engineering Services Ltd. (ASX:GNG) 189 158 20% 24 21 Lycopodium Ltd. (ASX:LYL) 186 166 12% 25 27 SRG Global Ltd. (ASX:SRG) 185 129 43% (1%) 26 30 BSA Ltd. (ASX:BSA) 158 126 26% (7%) 27 29 Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Ltd. (ASX:SXE) 141 126 12% IT 28 26 Cardno Ltd. (ASX:CDD) 136 130 17% GMISI Energy Utilities A-REIT Materials 29 19 Resource Development Group Ltd. (ASX:RDG) 129 177 -27% Industrials Resources Cons. Disc. HealthCare All Ordinaries Cons. Staples 30 31 Intega Group Ltd. (ASX:ITG) 122 118 4% S&P/ASX 200 Telco Services 31 28 DUG Technology Ltd. (ASX:DUG) 120 127 -5% Financial-x-A-REIT 32 32 Mitchell Services Ltd. (ASX:MSV) 112 102 10% 33 42 MMA Offshore Ltd. (ASX:MRM) 108 54 -19% 34 38 Veem Ltd. (ASX:VEE) 107 62 73% Performance Over Time 35 34 Austin Engineering Ltd. (ASX:ANG) 99 87 13% 36 41 Primero Group Ltd. (ASX:PGX) 96 57 70% 37 35 Acrow Formwork & Construction Services Ltd. (ASX:ACF)83 78 6% Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Index (GMISI) 95 38 36 Decmil Group Ltd. (ASX:DCG) 81 72 13% S&P/ASX 200 39 43 Boom Logistics Ltd. (ASX:BOL) 77 49 57% S&P/ASX 200 Resources 85 40 33 Mastermyne Group Ltd. (ASX:MYE) 72 91 -24% 41 39 Swick Mining Services Ltd. (ASX:SWK) 61 58 5% 75 42 37 Saunders International Ltd. (ASX:SND) 61 62 -2% 43 40 Laserbond Ltd. (ASX:LBL) 60 57 4% 65 44 47 Verbrec Ltd. (ASX:LCM) 54 30 80% 45 44 XRF Scientific Ltd. (ASX:XRF) 41 44 -8% 55 46 46 Boart Longyear Ltd. (ASX:BLY) 39 34 12% 47 55 Veris Ltd. (ASX:VRS) 33 12 179% 45 48 45 AJ Lucas Group Ltd. (ASX:AJL) 32 36 -10% 35 49 51 Dynamic Drill & Blast Holdings Ltd. (ASX:DDB) 31 20 51% 50 49 Valmec Ltd. (ASX:VMX) 30 21 41% 25 Dec17 Jun18 Dec18 Jun19 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Notes: (1) Performance measured over the period 30-Sep-20 to 31-Dec-20 (inclusive). Source: FactSet, IRESS. 2 2 Valuation Multiples The sector’s forward PE multiple increased in line with share prices in the final quarter and is currently sitting above the 10 year median. However, the industry continues to trade at a significant discount to the broader market. 1 Year Forward Price Earnings Ratio Over Time 23x 21x 19x 17x 15x 13x 11x 9x GMISI 10-year Median: 10.4x 7x 5x GMISI All Ordinaries 3x Price Earnings Ratio (FY21F) Median as at 30 June 2020: 10.5x 35x 30x 25x 20x Median: 14.2x 15x 10x 5x - ORI LYL LBL IMD CIM MIN EHL BOL RUL VEE ALQ BSA SXE ACF AQZ SND PRN MLD PGX SSM SRG DUG DCG MAD MAH SWK MND SVW GNG FWD NWH WOR DOW Dividend Yield (FY21F) 6.0% Median as at 30 June 2020: 3.6% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Median: 2.7% 2.0% 1.0% - ORI LYL LBL MIN CIM IMD EHL ACF SXE BSA ALQ VEE RUL EVS BOL AQZ PRN MLD SND PGX SSM ANG SRG MAD MAH DUG DCG GNG MND FWD SWK SVW NWH MRM WOR DOW Large Cap (>$1bn) Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) Small Cap (<$200m) Notes: (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are included in charts; (2) Share prices are as at 31-Dec-20; (3) Earnings multiples are not calendarised; (4) Companies exhibiting negative multiples have been excluded from the above analysis. Source: FactSet. 3 3 30.0x 25.0x 20.0x 15.0x Median: 10.7x 10.0x Valuation Multiples (cont.) Multiples Valuation 5.0xFactSet.Source: exhibitingnegativemultiples have been excludedabove from the analysis. a transactionWherehasbala(5) occurredtheafter Only(1) companies Notes: with consensus earningsincludedforecastsare Share(2)incharts; prices31 as at are PRICE/NTA (FY21F) EV/EBITDA (FY21F) EV/EBIT Additionally, range Median - Large Cap (>$1bn) Cap Large ORI LBL LYL IMD CIM MIN BLY EHL RUL BOL VEE ALQ ACF BSA SXE AQZ MLD SND PRN PGX SSM SRG DUG DCG MAD MAH FWD SWK SVW MND GNG driven NWH MRM WOR DOW sector only by enterprise factors 5 16.0x constituents 14.0x 12.0x such value 10.0x as multiples 8.0x currently Median: 5.9x 6.0x relative 4.0x Mid Cap (between $200m $200m $1bn) (between Cap and Mid 2.0x trade are growth - currently at ORI LBL LYL IMD MIN CIM BLY EHL RUL VEE ALQ ACF BOL BSA SXE AQZ SND PGX PRN MLD SSM SRG ANG DUG DCG MAD SVW MND GNG FWD SWK MRM NWH WOR DOW a 4 discount outlook, c . 11 x to 700% profitability - EBIT Dec NTA, 600% - 20; (3) Ea (3)20; 500% and compared nce rnings multiplesare not 400% nethas datedebt been adjusted accordingly. c and . 300% Median: 213% 6 x EBITDA, 200% type to Median Median as at 30 June 2020: 175% Median Median as at 30 June 2020: 7.9x Median Median as at 30 June 2020: 5.1x 100% 10 of calendarised - at with 30 service Small Cap Small(<$200m) Cap ITG AJL ORI LBL LYL IMD MIN EHL CVL BSA EVS RUL VEE XRF SXE ACF BOL VRS AQZ LCM SND PRN MLD PGX CDD SSM MSV EGN SRG MYE ANG VMX DUG MAD RDG DCG MAH SVW GNG MND FWD SWK NWH MRM June ; (4) Companies Companies (4) ; a discount discount NTA to very Companies Companies trading trading a at 2020 offering wide . 4 30% 20% Median: 8% 10% - Forecast Growth Forecast Source: Source: FactSet. Notes: (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are charts.
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