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Brighter Days Ahead; Retain BUY Rating Upside India Equity Research | Media & Entertainment © February 2, 2017 Event Update Emkay Your success is our success Sun TV Network CMP Target Price Rs552 Rs850 () Brighter days ahead; Retain BUY Rating Upside BUY () 54.1 % 2G Special court announced a landmark decision today, dismissing all charges against Change in Estimates promoters of Sun TV and other accused. Although CBI and Enforcement Directorate (ED) EPS Chg FY17E/FY18E (%) (6.4)/(7.6) would likely appeal in the Supreme Court, we believe Marans are in a stronger position Target Price change (%) 38.2 with today’s announcement. Previous Reco BUY The stock has been trading at benign valuations since 2011 for obvioius reasons i.e. 1) legal cases against promoters and 2) sub-par advertisement revenue growth as non-Tamil Emkay vs Consensus channels were losing market share. Partial re-rating started a few months back with EPS Estimates nd viewership market share gains in Telugu (2 largest market). FY17E FY18E The company has infused investments in content across non-Tamil portfolio, resulting in Emkay 24.9 27.8 consistent viewership market share gains in Telugu and Malayalam genre while the same Consensus 26.2 30.0 is yet to reflect in the Kannada genre. Mean Consensus TP Rs 541 As the legal overhang is now behind, we believe re-rating in the stock is imminent. We raise our target PE mulptile to 26x vs 18x earlier and roll forward valutions to FY19E EPS Stock Details to arrive at TP of Rs850, implying 54% upside. Retain BUY. Bloomberg Code SUNTV IN Face Value (Rs) 5 Focused business initiatives bear result; Ratings improve: SUN TV’s content strategy Shares outstanding (mn) 394 changes have started to reflect in viewership market share gains in Telugu and Malayalam 52 Week H/L 567 / 312 genre while the same is yet to reflect in the Kannada genre. In Q1FY17, it launched 20 new shows (including 5 dubbed shows) for non-Tamil and 2 new shows in Tamil while it continued M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 217 / 3.23 its focus on new launches in the following quarters as well. In the last 31 weeks, change in Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 21,52,366 content strategy has started to show results with ~8% and ~4% viewership gains in Telugu Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 15.9 and Malayalam portfolio, while Kannada is grappling to arrest its viewership decline. Advertisement – Monetization of market share improvement from Q1FY18: SUN TV’s Shareholding Pattern Dec '16 advertisement revenue has been underperforming industry and peers in the last 5 years due Promoters 75.0% to inconsistency in content investment resulting in viewership market share loss in all the 3 FIIs 16.8% non-Tamil channels. Recent improvement in ratings failed to translate into advertisement DIIs 1.7% revenue growth, impeded by demonetization. We expect ad growth recovery from Q1FY18 in Public and Others 6.6% anticipation that impact of demonetization would recede by then. We are projecting ad growth of 1%/14%/14% for FY17/18/19E. Price Performance Digitization benefits yet to accrue: SUN TV’s cable TV subscription revenue has been (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M impacted by continued delays in implementation of digitization in TN due to Arasu and now Absolute 10 3 21 54 delay in implementation of Phase III. Nevertheless, renewed deals with MSOs have resulted Rel. to Nifty 4 1 20 34 in improved traction in cable TV subscription revenue (37% yoy growth in Q1FY17). Growth in the near to medium term would be contingent on 1) resolution of Phase III digitization Relative price chart (despite Arasu remaining a drag) and 2) continued healthy growth in DTH subscriptions driven 575 Rs % 50 by strong bouquet offering. Sustenance of market share improvement would strengthen its 520 36 bargaining power on both Cable TV and DTH subscription. We expect Cable TV and DTH subscription revenue to grow at 12% CAGR (FY16-19E). 465 22 410 8 Financial Snapshot (Consolidated) 355 -6 (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E 300 -20 Revenue 23,954 25,698 27,957 31,102 34,929 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 EBITDA 16,772 17,742 18,769 21,012 24,379 Sun TV Network (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS) Source: Bloomberg EBITDA Margin (%) 70.0 69.0 67.1 67.6 69.8 APAT 7,820 8,954 9,808 10,939 13,129 Naval Seth EPS (Rs) 19.8 22.7 24.9 27.8 33.3 naval.seth@emkayglobal.com EPS (% chg) 4.5 14.5 9.5 11.5 20.0 +91 22 66242414 ROE (%) 23.6 25.4 26.1 26.9 29.7 P/E (x) 27.8 24.3 22.2 19.9 16.6 Ashish Agrawal EV/EBITDA (x) 12.5 11.6 10.8 9.6 8.1 ashish.agrawal@emkayglobal.com P/BV (x) 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.7 +91 22 66121241 Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal .com, Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>, Reuters and DOWJONES. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. Emkay Research | February 2, 2017 2017 2, February | Research Emkay Sun TV Network (SUNTV IN) IN) (SUNTV Sun Network TV Source:BARC, Emkay Research trend viewership Telugu Exhibit 1: 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0% 5% MaaTV GeminiTV week 1 week 4 week 7 week 10 week 13 week 16 week 19 week 22 GeminiMovies ETV Telugu week 25 week 28 week 31 Uptick started Uptickstarted for Gemini TV Malayalam,grappling while Kannada tois its arrest strategy has started to show and has results since continued its with focus on new ~8% launches. and launched 20 ~ new shows (including 5 dubbed shows) fo Telugu and Malayalam genre while the same is yet to SUN TV’s content strategy changes have started to ref Focusedbusiness initiatives bear result; Ratingsi Source:BARC, Emkay Research trend Tamil viewership Exhibit 4: Source:BARC, Emkay Research trend viewership Kannada Exhibit 3: 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% week 34 0% 5% -20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% week 37 week 40 Polimer TV Sun Udaya TV Udaya week 1 week 1 week 43 week 3 week 3 ZeeTelugu week 46 week 5 week 5 week 49 week 7 week 7 week 52 week 9 week 9 week 3 Zee Kannada Zee week 11 week 11 Kalaignar TV Kalaignar KTV week 13 week 13 Source:BARC, Emkay Research trend viewership Malayalam Exhibit 2: -20% week 15 20% 40% 60% 80% week 15 0% week 17 week 17 AsianetNews FlowersTV Surya TV week 19 week 19 week 1 week 21 week 21 week 4 week 23 Kannada Colors week 23 week 7 J Movie J Tamil Zee week 25 week 25 week 10 week 27 week 27 week 13 week 29 week 29 week 16 vieweship declining week 31 In the last 31 weeks, change in content week 31 week 19 reflect in Kannada genre. In Q1FY17, it lect in viewership market share gains in KiranTV Asianet week 33 week 33 r non-Tamil and 2 new shows in Tamil week 22 4% viewership gain in Telugu and mprove week 35 week 35 week 25 Event Update | Research India Equity Star Suvarna Star Adithya TV Adithya Vijay STAR week 37 week 37 week 28 week 39 week 39 week 31 Uptick started for Surya TV week 41 week 41 week 34 week 43 week 43 week 37 week 45 week 45 week 40 week 47 week 47 AsianetMovies MazhavilManorama Udaya Movies Udaya week 43 week 49 week 49 Jaya TV Jaya week 46 week 51 week 51 week 49 week 1 week 1 week 52 week 3 week 3 2 week 3 Sun TV Network (SUNTV IN) India Equity Research | Event Update Exhibit 5: Telugu viewership share – monthly trend Oct’15 Nov’15 Dec’15 Jan’16 Feb’16 Mar’16 Apr’16 May’16 Jun’16 Jul’16 Aug’16 Sep’16 Oct’16 Nov’16 Dec’16 Jan’17 ETV Telugu 25% 26% 26% 25% 26% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 23% 23% 22% 23% Maa TV 24% 21% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% Zee Telugu 19% 22% 21% 23% 24% 24% 25% 26% 24% 23% 21% 22% 22% 20% 21% 22% Gemini TV 19% 20% 18% 19% 17% 18% 20% 19% 20% 24% 25% 27% 27% 28% 28% 26% Gemini Movies 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% Source: BARC, Emkay Research Exhibit 6: Kannada viewership share – monthly trend Oct’15 Nov’15 Dec’15 Jan’16 Feb’16 Mar’16 Apr’16 May’16 Jun’16 Jul’16 Aug’16 Sep’16 Oct’16 Nov’16 Dec’16 Jan’17 Colors Kannada 30% 34% 35% 33% 29% 29% 29% 28% 30% 30% 31% 33% 31% 32% 31% 33% Udaya TV 19% 16% 16% 17% 16% 15% 16% 16% 17% 17% 16% 16% 12% 11% 10% 11% Suvarna 18% 16% 17% 16% 19% 21% 19% 17% 15% 15% 18% 17% 20% 20% 20% 19% Udaya Movies 19% 19% 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 19% 19% 18% 15% 16% 16% 15% 16% 15% Zee Kannada 14% 16% 16% 16% 18% 18% 18% 20% 19% 19% 20% 18% 21% 21% 23% 22% Source: BARC, Emkay Research Exhibit 7: Malayalam viewership share – monthly trend Oct’15 Nov’15 Dec’15 Jan’16 Feb’16 Mar’16 Apr’16 May’16 Jun’16 Jul’16 Aug’16 Sep’16 Oct’16 Nov’16 Dec’16 Jan’17 Asianet 55% 55% 51% 55% 54% 53% 51% 50% 54% 50% 49% 45% 45% 49% 50% 53% Mazhavil Manorama 13% 14% 17% 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 16% 16% 14% 16% 15% 13% 12% 13% Flowers TV 11% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12% 10% 12% 10% 10% 12% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% Surya TV 10% 11% 12% 9% 8% 10% 11% 11% 11% 15% 16% 17% 15% 12% 13% 13% Asianet Movies 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 12% 13% 14% 11% Kiran TV 9% 8% 9% 9% 12% 11% 10% Source: BARC, Emkay Research Exhibit 8: Tamil viewership share – monthly trend Tamil Oct’15 Nov’15 Dec’15 Jan’16 Feb’16 Mar’16 Apr’16 May’16 Jun’16 Jul’16 Aug’16 Sep’16 Oct’16 Nov’16 Dec’16 Jan’17 Sun TV 60% 59% 58% 60% 62% 61% 61% 58% 57% 57% 57% 56% 59% 58% 57% 58% KTV 19% 20% 18% 17% 17% 16% 17% 19% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 15% 14% 13% STAR Vijay 11% 10% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 11% Zee tamil 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 9% 10% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% Polimer 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% Source: BARC, Emkay Research Emkay Research | February 2, 2017 3 Sun TV Network (SUNTV IN) India Equity Research | Event Update Advertisement growth uptick expected from Q1FY18 SUN TV’s advertisement revenue has been underperforming industry and peers in the last 5 years due to inconsistency in content investment resulting in loss in viewership market share in all the 3 non-Tamil channels.
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