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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by Indian Association of Investment Professionals (IAIP) Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by Indian Association of Investment Professionals (IAIP) Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore SUN TV NETWORK (Industry: Media & Entertainment, Sector: Broadcasting ) Date: Nov 4, 2013 Current Price: INR 423.25 (as on 31.10.13) Recommendation: BUY Exchange: NSE Ticker: SUNTV Upside: 21% Target Price: INR 511 Key Stock Statistics Make hay while the ‘SUN’ shines Price INR 423.25 Buy Recommendation - We issue a buy recommendation for SUN TV Network Face Value INR 5 with a target price of 511 which is an upside of 21% over the CMP. SUN TV looks certain to consolidate its position as the largest TV broadcasting company in South Shares Outstanding 394.08 mn India. Radio business will grow but is still pretty small compared to TV advertising Free Float Market Cap 41,393.7 mn and subscription. The company is also looking to revitalize the film distribution business. 52 wk range (INR) 311 - 494.90 Strong Revenue Stream - SUN TV has robust a revenue stream backed by a Beta 0.96 strong business model. Its subscription revenues will receive a major boost due to Free Float 25% implementation of digitization norms. Its DTH subscriber base is forecasted to grow from ~9 million presently to over 14 million by 2017 with ARPU rising by Avg Daily Volumes 129,107 (LTM) nearly 60% over the same period. SUN TV has hiked rates sufficiently to compen- sate for TRAI’s 10+2 min/hr ad cap regulation. Ad revenues are driven primarily 2013 Dividend Yield 2.43% by FMCG ad spending. Source: NSE, Bloomberg Solid Financials - SUN TV has sound financials with the top-line expected to grow to INR 34,443 million and bottom-line to INR 12,758 million by FY17. Profit mar- Performance vis-à-vis market gins will remain stable at the current levels. The company’s free cash flow is ex- pected to grow from INR 4,961 million in FY13 to INR 8,736 million in FY17. Preferable over Peers – The company’s P/E valuation discount is at an all time high compared to its closest peer (~37%). We expect this to narrow as SUN TV has more headroom for subscription revenue growth in both domestic and over- seas markets. IPL Business Needs to be Watched Out For - IPL business would exert a drag on the margins in the short run. The company made a loss of INR 300 million in FY13 from this segment. While the management expects this to breakeven by FY15, the revenues from this business needs to be watched out given its highly unpredictable nature. Political and Legal Overhang Remains - Promoters of SUN TV are affiliated to Shareholding Pattern a strong regional party and effects of this risk were manifested in FY12 due to issues with Arasu cable. The promoters’ involvement in the 2G case led to fall of Mar ‘12 Mar ‘13 Oct ‘13 16% in the stock price on 13 Jun ‘13. This continues to be a risk going forward as well. Although the fundamentals of the business are very strong, risk averse inves- Promoters 77% 77% 75% tors may not want to hold this stock. FII 14.21% 14% 16% DII 2.82% 1.87% 2.28% Key Financials Others 5.97% 7.07% 6.72% FY 12A FY 13A FY 14E FY 15E FY 16E FY 17E Source: Bloomberg Net Sales (INR mn) 18,472 19,230 22,254 26,098 30,141 34,444 EBITDA (INR mn) 14,144 14,091 16,673 19,554 22,583 25,806 Valuation Summary PAT (INR mn) 6,807 7,066 8,189 9,660 11,166 12,758 Method Price (INR) Networth (INR mn) 26,139 28,854 33,858 39,406 45,513 52,210 DCF 511 Total Assets (INR mn) 29,045 32,396 37,387 42,936 49,043 55,739 DDM 474 ROE (%) 26.04 24.49 24.19 24.51 24.53 24.44 Residual Income 496 EPS (INR) 17.27 17.93 20.78 24.51 28.33 32.37 Comparables 524 DPS (INR) 9.44 9.50 11.18 13.19 15.25 17.42 Source: Team Estimates Source: Company Filings, Team Estimates 1 Business Description Established in 1993, SUN TV Network Limited has become one of the largest TV and Radio broadcasting companies in India, operating 33 television channels in Tamil, Malayalam, Telugu and Kannada and 46 radio stations throughout the country. The Group is also into movie production and distribution and owns the Hyderabad IPL team ‘SunRisers Hydera- bad’, bought recently in October 2012. Figure on the left gives the structure of the com- pany. The Company has two subsidiaries, Kal Radio Ltd. (59.15% stake) and South Asia FM 59.15% 97.78% Ltd. (97.78% stake), through which it operates its radio channels. South Asia FM Ltd. further has a 48.9% beneficial interest in Red FM Radio Companies. The movie distribution and production is handled by the SUN Pictures division. 48.90% Undisputed Leader in South With SUN TV’s channels leading the Tamil, Telugu and Malayalam markets and marginally behind the leader in Kannada, it leads in the industry in South India. SUN TV is the largest regional TV network in the country. Its channels are spread across the genres GEC, news, music, action, life, movies, kids and comedy and are available in more than 27 countries FM Radio Network worldwide. In radio broadcasting, South Asia FM Ltd. has 23 FM Radio licenses, mainly in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh 13 the North, East and West, whereas the Southern region is covered by Kal Radio’s 18 li- censes. The stake in Red FM has also given the company, access to their very popular radio Karnataka and Kerala 9 stations in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata. 50% of the total Radio revenues come from the West 8 Metro stations. North and East 16 Ownership Structure Total 46 The company is held by the influential Maran family of Tamil Nadu with the promoters hav- ing trimmed their stake to 75% in May 2013 to comply with the SEBI guidelines. With the large promoter stake, political factors play a major role in the environment affecting the company. Institutional investors hold another 18.28% with 16% being with the foreign inves- 3) tors and 2.28% with the domestic. Other investors, which include the retail investors, hold a -FY1 Y10 6.72% stake. R (F CAG .8% 9 Financial Snapshot The total revenues of the company were INR 19,230 million in FY13 up from INR 18,472 million in FY12. Revenues from both, TV broadcasting and distribution segment which com- prises around 93% of the total and Radio broadcasting, contributing around 6%, went up whereas Movie production/distribution segment’s share fell from around 3.2% in 2012 to 0.01% in 2013. But the company expects movie distribution business to pick up again 2014 onwards. Company’s major source of revenues is the sale of advertising. In FY 2013, advertising revenues contributed 60% to the total revenues. They have increased at a CAGR of 11% during FY 2010-13 as against the total revenue that grew at a CAGR of 9.8% during the same period. Approximately, 50% of the advertising income comes from the national FMCG sector and another major portion from the local brands. SUN TV Network has re- cently more than doubled its ad rates. Although ad revenues grew 15% YoY in 1Q FY14, the growth might be affected with the implementation of TRAI’s 10+2 minutes/hour ad cap regulation. Related Parties, Subsidiaries and Other Businesses Key management personnel of SUN TV have a significant influence on a number of compa- nies in the field of DTH services, textile and media services. The most important of these from SUN TV’s perspective is Sun Direct TV Private Limited, the DTH arm of the group. It contributes nearly 50% of SUN TV’s DTH revenue. The company has the following subsidiaries - South Asia FM Limited and Kal Radio Limited. The radio subsidiaries achieved breakeven in FY13 after registering a loss of ~INR 65 mil- lion in FY12. The radio business is expected to remain strong, although it still forms a very small portion of the company’s total business. The company bought the IPL franchise ‘SunRisers Hyderabad’ from BCCI in October 2012 for a consideration of INR 4250 million payable in five years at INR 850 million per year. It registered a loss of INR 300 million on this business in FY13. The management expects it to break even by FY15. Data Sources: Company Filings, Team Estimates 2 Industry Overview & Competitive Positioning Industry segments (in INR billion) The media and entertainment industry comprises of primarily television, print, films, radio, 370.1 digital marketing and music, with television being the main segment of this INR 821 billion 847.6 industry. SUN TV is a major player in the television segment with a strong presence in radio. 224.1 The company also operated in the films segment earlier, which the company has put on hold 340.2 currently but expects to restart soon. 112.4 The Indian television broadcasting industry was estimated to stand at INR 370 billion in 193.3 2012, with a CAGR of 18% between 2012 and 2017. It earns its revenue mainly from two 35.3 sources, subscription and advertisement. Subscription revenues are currently estimated to 73.4 contribute around 66% to total television revenues, which is expected to increase to 72% on 21.7 account of digitization and increased penetration.
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