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Habits of Peace: the Foundations of Long-Term Regional Cooperation in Southeast Asia and South America

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Habits of Peace: the Foundations of Long-Term Regional Cooperation in Southeast Asia and South America Habits of Peace: The Foundations of Long-Term Regional Cooperation in Southeast Asia and South America by Aarjen Derek Glas A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto @ Copyright by Aarjen Derek Glas 2017 Habits of Peace: The Foundations of Long-Term Regional Cooperation in Southeast Asia and South America Aarjen Derek Glas Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto 2017 Abstract The regions of Southeast Asia and South America are often cited as puzzling cases of long peace among nation-states. Absent hard power balancing behaviours, liberal democratic development, and economic interdependence, both present unlikely cases for prolonged periods of time absent large scale inter-state violence. This research begins with an inquiry into the foundations the long peace of each region: practices of conflict management. More narrowly, this project asks: How can we understand cooperation and community building alongside persistent militarized violence? Upon what foundations have these largely illiberal states been able to build relative but lasting peace despite pervasive territorial disputes? In answering these questions, this research argues that distinct and diplomatic habits shape the management of peace and conflict in each region. The underlying argument of this work is that the habitual and dispositional qualities of regional diplomatic practice inform the long peace of these regions and regional relations more generally. In each region, distinctive and discrete qualities of regional relations shape crisis response, but also shape how crises, themselves, are understood by regional diplomatic officials. These “habits of peace” make possible long-term regional cooperation and relative peace alongside persistent intra-regional violence. After articulating the conflictual nature of peace in each regional case, I suggest that existing understandings of regional long-peace overlook the practical and tactical foundations upon which interstate cooperation rest. I offer a theoretical framework and ii particular set of methods attentive to the habitual and dispositional qualities of inter-state relations. In the subsequent empirical cases I demonstrate the existence and effect of a particular regional habitual disposition in each region, with a particular focus on episodes of regional crisis including the 2011 Preah Vihear border dispute in Southeast Asia and the 1995 Cenepa conflict between Peru and Ecuador. iii Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge the support and guidance of my supervisor, Matthew J. Hoffmann. Matt’s generosity in time and engagement and his dedication and mentorship over this project and my wider studies have been invaluable professionally and personally. I thank him sincerely. I would also like to thank the members of committee, Steven Bernstein and Vincent Pouliot, for their support throughout this process, and my internal and external readers, Seva Gunitsky and Jarrod Hayes. My sincere thanks also to Lee Ann Fujii, who has been a mentor and inspiration throughout my time at the University of Toronto. I also extend my gratitude to Mary-Alice Bailey, Carolynn Branton, Norma Dotto, Louis Tentsos, and all the staff in the Department of Political Science across the three campuses at the University of Toronto for their assistance throughout my years here. I also wish to acknowledge the advice and friendship of many colleagues in the at University of Toronto, including Kiran Banerjee, Jessica Soedirgo, Wilfred Greaves, Abouzar Nasirzadeh, Andrew McDougall, Joelle Dumouchel, Chris LaRoche, Joseph MacKay, Troy Lundblad, Evan Rosevear, and, in particular, David Zarnett for his tireless willingness to hear complaints. Finally, I extend my sincere thanks and appreciation to my family. To my parents, Robert and Susan Glas, who have financially and emotionally supported my (over-long) life as a student, my brothers, Jameson and Christian, who have been close friends and confidents throughout this process, my grandparents, who are continuing sources of inspiration, and to my partner, Alesha Porisky, for her love and unwavering faith. I dedicate this dissertation to my family. iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements iv Table of Contents v List of Figures vii List of Tables viii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE 1 1.1 Regions as Constructs 3 1.2 Peace as Process 5 1.3 Argument 7 1.4 Plan of the Dissertation 11 CHAPTER 2. PUZZLES OF PEACE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH AMERICA 14 2.1 Introduction 14 2.2 Peace as a Puzzle 15 2.2.1 Southeast Asia 19 2.2.2 South America 21 2.3 Understanding Peace 24 2.4 Capability and Power 24 2.5 Institutions and Interdependence 39 2.6 Peace by Satisfaction 44 2.7 Cultural and Normative Foundations 46 2.8 Habits of Peace 48 2.9 Summary 50 2.9.1 Habits and Power 52 2.9.2 Habits and Norms 53 2.10 Conclusion 54 CHAPTER 3. HABITS OF PEACE: THEORY AND FRAMEWORK 56 3.1 Introduction 56 3.2 Habits, Practices, and Norms 57 3.3 Habitual Dispositions 62 v 3.4 The Origins of Habit 67 3.5 Summary 70 3.6 Habit Matters 70 3.7 Research Design and Method 74 3.8 Starting Assumptions 76 3.9 Recognizing and Uncovering the Existence of Habit 79 3.11 Capturing and Comparing the Effect of Habit 98 3.12 Conclusion 106 CHAPTER 4. HABITS OF PEACE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 108 4.1 Introduction 108 4.2 Conflictual Regional Peace in Southeast Asia 109 4.3 Habits of Regional Relations in Southeast Asia 115 4.3.1 A comment on the origins of habits in Southeast Asia 116 4.4 The Existence of a Southeast Asian Habitual Disposition 117 4.5 Habits and Regional Relations 131 4.5.1 Habits and their Effects I. Robust Habits 132 4.5.2 Habits and their Effects II. Habits and a “Small War” 135 4.6 Conclusion 142 CHAPTER 5. HABITS OF PEACE IN SOUTH AMERICA 144 5.1 Introduction 144 5.2 Conflictual Regional Peace in South America 145 5.2.1 South America as a Region 145 5.2.2 Regional History: Organizations and Violence 147 5.3 Habits of Regional Relations in South America 158 5.3.1 A comment on the origins of habits in South America 160 5.4 The Existence of a South American Habitual Disposition 163 5.5 The Effects of Habit 184 5.5.1 Habits and their Effects I. Robust Habits 184 5.5.2 Habits and their Effects II. Habits and a 160-year-long conflict 186 5.6 Conclusion 197 vi CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS, COMPARISONS, AND IMPLICATIONS 199 6.1 Introduction 199 6.2 Comparing Habits of Regional Relations 200 6.3 Contributions and Implications 205 6.4 The Argument Travels: Habits of Security Cooperation in the African Union 210 6.5 Conclusions 217 REFERENCES 219 vii List of Figures Figure 1. Inter-state, intra-regional war in South America and Southeast Asia, 1850-2010 ......................... 16 Figure 2. Regional inter-state conflict in South America and Southeast Asia, 1946-2010 ........................... 18 Figure 3. Intra-ASEAN inter-state militarized disputes, 1967-2010 ............................................................. 21 Figure 4. Hostility Level of Militarized International Disputes involving South American States, 1946-2010 .............................................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 5. Regional Share of CINC of ASEAN Member States, 1960-2007 .................................................. 26 Figure 6. CINC of the Broader Asian Region, 1960-2007 ............................................................................ 27 Figure 7. Relative Share of Regional South American CINC, 1870-2007 .................................................... 29 Figure 8. Relative Share of South American CINC, including the UK and US, 1870-2007 ......................... 31 Figure 9. Intra-Regional Exports (%), founding ASEAN members, 1967-2012 ........................................... 41 Figure 10. Intra-Regional Exports (%), states of South America, 1948-2012 ............................................... 42 viii List of Tables Table 1. Research Design Summary .............................................................................................................. 75 Table 2. Habits of Regional Relations ......................................................................................................... 200 ix Chapter 1. Introduction and Structure By many measures, the regions of Southeast Asia and South America exhibit exceptionally pacific inter-state relations, and have for quite some time. In South America, despite persistent territorial disputes and regime instability, war has been the exception rather than the rule since at least the 1940s. Similarly, in Southeast Asia since the 1960s war has largely eluded the region despite territorial disputes and inter-state rivalries that remain all but endemic. In both cases, scholars of many theoretical stripes have recognized a puzzling pattern of peace where we would not expect to see it: largely illiberal states experiencing long peace. In many accounts of inter-state relations, the absence of large-scale militarized violence is assumed an ephemeral and fragile condition of inter-state relations, and often the product of a tenuous balancing of material capability to disincentivize the costly escalation of conflict. However, in neither region does this appear the case. Similarly, democratic development and economic interdependence have long been assumed generative of sustained peaceful relations among states. Yet both regions demonstrate peace
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