Space Weather Workshop The Meeting of Science, Research, Applications, Operations, and Users 26-29 April, 2016, Broomfield, Colorado PSTEP Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction Kanya Kusano Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research Nagoya University

2016/4/29 Outline

 What is PSTEP

 Motivation, Objectives & Organization

 Strategies and Roadmap

 Research Topics

 Flare prediction

 CME prediction

 Prediction of plasma bubble

 Prediction of long-term variability

 International collaboration

 Summary

2016/4/29 Motivation of PSTEP

“understanding” “predicting”

Valley of death science forecast research operation

2016/4/29 History of Flare Prediction Skill

year

2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 Perfect prediction 1.00 0.80 TSS 0.60 Flare>X 0.40 NICT, Japan 0.20 0.00 -0.20 Courtesy of Dr. Kubo (NICT)

2016/4/29 History of Flare Prediction Skill

year

2012 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 Perfect prediction 1.00 0.80 TSS 0.60 Flare>X 0.40 NICT, Japan 0.20 0.00 -0.20 Courtesy of Dr. Kubo (NICT)

2016/4/29 History of Flare Prediction Skill

1.00 Yohkoh SOHO Trace HINODE SDO IRIS 0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

NICT, Japan -0.20

2016/4/29 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/solar-activity-forecast-verification Research & Operation

“understanding” “predicting” O2R

R2O Valley of death science forecast research operation Physics-based Models

2016/4/29 2015-2019 科学研究費補助金 新学術領域研究（研究領域提案型） Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction (PSTEP) supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from MEXT/Japan 太陽地球圏環境予測

synergistic 【Objective 1】 development 【Objective 2】 To answer fundamental To build the base for next- questions of solar-terrestrial generation space weather environment: forecast system ■ The onset mechanism of solar flares ■ Useful prediction for each industrial ■ The mechanism of radiation belt activities dynamics ■ Physics-based assessment of severe ■ The physical process whereby the sun affects climate space weather disaster Physics-based Prediction ＋ Network Observation & HPC PSTEP Network Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction

• 20 Institutes & 90 Researchers • Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas from MEXT/Japan Tohoku U (2015-2019)

JMA NIPR JAEA JMA Kyoto U RIHN Chiba U Hiroshima U NICT JAMSTEC NAOJ U Tokyo Kyushu U Osaka P U ISAS/JAXA RIKEN Hyogo P U ENRI Musashino A U Nagoya U U EC Sekei U ISEE (Institute for Sun-Earth Environmental Research) 2016/4/29 Organization of PSTEP

International Steering Committee Partners in partners Kusano (Nagoya U.) Industries A01 Space Weather Forecast Operation Group Ishii (NICT) ① Forecast systems to meet the needs of society, Assessment of severe space weather

A02 Solar-Storm group A03 Geomagnetism group ② Ichimoto (Kyoto Univ.） Miyoshi (Nagoya Univ.) Short-term Flare & CME Flare prediction Particle model Radiation in space Magnetosphere Model （space model Now-casting of GIC solar storm Ionosphere Model Ionosphere dis. weather） Hinode, SDO, ground-based observations ERG, ground-based obs.

③ A04 Solar cycle and climate , Yoden (Kyoto Univ.) Long-term Hinode, SDO, SORCE Solar cycle model Prediction of next cycle （space Meteorological data Earth-system model Solar inf. to climate climate） Research Units (proposal-based) 7 9 ② Short-term prediction (Space Weather)

prediction verification A01 Operation Group prediction verification A02 Solar Storm (PI: Ichimoto) A03 Geomagnetism (PI: Miyoshi) 分担3名、連携4名 (Kyoto、Nagoya、JAXA、NAOJ、NICT、JAMSTEC) 分担7名、連携5名 (Ngoya、Tohoku、Kyusu、Kyoto、NICT、ISAS、MC) Prediction of Solar Flare & CME Prediction of radioactivity in space 3D B model and data-driven simulation Short-term prediction of radiation belt and SEP

Hinode Data-driven Radiation belt CME prediction model simulation of model including flare Physics-based nonlinear Kusano, et al. 2012 B （ ） vector magnetic earth ERG 2016 modeling acceleration field V first measurement of wave- predict particle interaction sun Prediction of ionospheric disturbance predicting meso-scale disturbance and propagation Numerical Prediction of NAOJ meso-scale Solar Flares Ionosphere- ionospheric model Evaluation Atmosphere global at L1 connection model Inter-scale (GAIA) coupling Now-casting of Solar Storm Plasma bubble Assimilation of CME b/w network observation and model Prediction of geomagnetically induced current Local model of GIC taking into account of conductivity distribution GIC model with ground In Situ SMART Hida observatory Nagoya Univ. measurement of NICT new radio burst Doppler measurement of filament IPS observation of Multiscale conductivity validation GIC monitering system interaction velocity solar wind Global magneto- shperic model Long-variation observation Long-variation observation A04 Solar Cycle Group To predict the onset of flares based on the stability analysis of 3D realistic magnetic Flare Prediction field model.

 Kusano+2012, Bamba+2013, Inoue+2016

フレアリボン

flare trigger region Hinode

NLFF model 2006-12-13 02:22 UT OP-type Vector magnetic field analyzer for flare trigger

Distribution of possible flare energy on the parameter space of trigger field structure

Ensemble simulator for flare trigger 2016/4/29 To predict the magnetic polarity Bz at r=1AU using the vector magnetgram and CME prediction 3D MHD simulation.

 SUSANOO (Shiota, et al. 2010)

magnetic cloud (spheromak)

Shiota & Kataoka 2016

observation simulation

2016/4/29 Magneto-Ionosphere

MI-coupling model (REPPU) GAIA: Whole Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupled Model The physics based model of auroral (Shinagawa+ 2011) breakup with substorms. multi-scale Ebihara and Tanaka (2015, JGR) connection

Plasma bubble Local bubble model (Yokoyama et al. 2015)

Ground-based Observation network

(Shiokawa, Nagoya U.) 2016/4/29 ③ Long-term prediction (space climate)

A01 Operation Group prediction requirement A02 A04班 PI Shigeo Yoden (Kyoto U) A03 Kyoto、Nagoya、Musashino-art、Seikei、Hyogo-pref、MC、NAOJ、NICT）

Mechanism of solar influence variability

data Prediction of Cycle 25 to climate

Leif Svalgaard's Research Page Geo

Solar Storm ? cycle -

25 magnetism Active Region CountActive year Earth system 3D MHD model model

prediction + Various processes for MRI-ESM flux transport

solar influence to climate data dynamo model IPCC気候モデル相互 比較CMIP6に参加 Evaluation of probability of 3D dynamo model Grand minimum and little ice age Using K-comp 長期的な太陽地球圏環境変動を予測するための技術開発 10 ③ Long-term prediction (space climate)

A01 Operation Group prediction requirement A02 A04班 PI ShigeoWorld Yoden largest(Kyoto simulation U) of A03 Kyoto、Nagoya、Musashino-art、Seikeisolar、Hyogo convection-pref、MC、NAOJ、 NICTzone）

(MechanismHotta, et al. 2014of solar & 2015) influence variability

data Prediction of Cycle 25 to climate

Leif Svalgaard's Research Page Geo

Solar Storm ? cycle - 25 magnetism

Active Region CountActive World largest solar year dynamoEarth simulation system 3D MHD model model

prediction + Various processes (forHotta etMRI al.-ESM 2016 flux transport

solar influence to climateScience) data dynamo model IPCC気候モデル相互 比較CMIP6に参加 Evaluation of probability of 3D dynamo model Grand minimum and little ice age Using K-comp 長期的な太陽地球圏環境変動を予測するための技術開発K-computer 10 ③ Long-term prediction (space climate)

A01 Operation Group prediction requirement A02 A04班 PI Shigeo Yoden (Kyoto U) A03 Kyoto、Nagoya、Musashino-art、Seikei、Hyogo-pref、MC、NAOJ、NICT）

Mechanism of solar influence variability

data Prediction of Cycle 25 to climate

Leif Svalgaard's Research Page Geo

Solar Storm ? cycle -

25 magnetism Active Region CountActive year Earth system 3D MHD model model

prediction + Various processes for MRI-ESM flux transport

solar influence to climate data dynamo model IPCC気候モデル相互 比較CMIP6に参加 Evaluation of probability of 3D dynamo model Grand minimum and little ice age Using K-comp 長期的な太陽地球圏環境変動を予測するための技術開発 10 System map of PSTEP models Sun inter-planetary magnetosphere/ionosphere/atmosphere long Solar Dynamo Earth climate system TSI, SSI AR NLFF Global solar mag. Magnetosphere Ionosphere Flare MHD UFCORIN FAC, BBF machine learning Solar wind REPPU GAIA PFSS SUSANOO solar wind T, rho CME injector stability CME Plasma SEP SEP radiation belt bubble short injection transport

f(v) SEP disturbance

End-User WASAVIES MUSCAT GIC radio Models dose warning satellite charge propagation system model simulator International collaborations

International Symposium PSTEP-1 Jan 13-14, 2016 Nagoya University, Japan

2016/4/29 International collaborations

 Joint Meeting &Symposium  PSTEP-1 Symposium on Jan 2016 at Nagoya  AGU-JpGU joint session of Space Weather & Space Climate May 2016 at Makuhari near Tokyo  Invited speakers: Tom Berger, Steven Clarke, Michael Hesse, Jon Linker, Alphonse Sterling, Antti Pulkkinen, Yusuke Ebihara,…

 Joint research  Benchmark activity  Modeling validation challenge, Prediction skill score  Joint development  Model, Assimilation, Post-processing, Visualization

2016/4/29 Project for PSTEP Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction

PSTEP is a new nation-wide project in Japan for space weather & space climate study. PSTEP aims to synergistically improve both our scientific understanding and predictive capability. The international joint action is important for PSTEP.

2016/4/29