The Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics!

Architecting Approaches to Meet the Nation’s Space Weather Needs

Daniel N. Baker Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado - Boulder Current Solar Observational Capabilities

8 The Geospace Observatory Fleet

NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio Effective Space Weather and Climate Capabilities: - NASA research satellites designed for scientific studies have been providing critical space weather information - NASA currently has neither the budget nor mandate to continue these measurements - A long-term monitoring strategy for space weather and space climate is needed - A separately funded and budgeted operational space weather program is crucially required (under aegis of NSTC)

4 The Operations and Research Cycles

• According to NOAA’s 1/23/17 draft white paper: • R2O: “The research community’s development, modification, and validation of data and models have value for operational services, and enable these services to run reliably, accurately, and autonomously for transition into operations.” • O2R: “The joint pursuit of improvements of operational capabilities and advancements in fundamental research.” This includes the SWx community working to upgrade and enhance: • Existing operational models and products • The communication of operational priorities and capabilities to the research community • The testing and evaluation of operational model performance by researchers for fundamental scientific discovery and for improved operational services, and • The identification of gaps in the fundamental understanding of the physical systems that impede operational capabilities

5 Essential Points

• There is a defined U.S. need in space weather research and operations (per SWORM, SWAP, Heliophysics Decadal Survey, DoD plans, as well as adjacent/related space missions) • U.S. Executive Order: Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events (issued 10/13/16) • NOAA identified the need for increased R2O and O2R capabilities • There remains a gap in the following key SWx national elements: • Strategic execution in realizing the SWAP • Research-to-operations infrastructure • Focused SWx research resources • Many groups have been exploring approaches to address these needs by identifying a pathway to a national-based, international-reaching center or institute

6 Space Weather Model Development

DoD Customers and Operations Civilian Customers and Operations

DoD SWPC Space Weather Centers Verification Documentation

Communication CCMC Model Access Model Flow Validation Metrics

Space Weather Research Community

Living Center for Integrated Core Space Science Targeted Space Multi-University With a Star Space Weather Modeling Research Weather Research Research Initiatives NASA NSF NSF/AF/ONR AF/ONR

Operational Model Flow

Community Model Model Development on SWPC Validation development Feedback computer Broad Scientific SWPC evaluates Modelin Testbed operational value operational with potential value with potential Usage, CCMC, Operations in Model

etc. models identifies SWPC

Implementation Effort: Modeler: 70% 1%

SWPC: 30% 99% 100% Harmonizing the O and the R

• Coupling researchers and operators • Needs assessments involving both R & O collaborators • Interagency, ongoing communication • Open forum sessions for feedback and updates • Improving data access across SWx communities • Ongoing inclusion of end-user communities, private enterprise/industry, and academia in needs assessments and capability developments • End-to-end lifecycle view of space weather mission development • Development of space weather mission lifecycle leadership capabilities

• Objectives can readily be addressed with an organization chartered from its onset to facilitate O/R collaborative lifecycles

9 Institute Charter Statement

• The National Space Weather Institute (SWxI) provides expertise in national space weather research and research-to-operations needs*, focusing on: • shared resources in strategic and tactical requirements assessments; • operational data collection and analysis; • information dissemination; • collaboration across industry, academia, and government organizations; • knowledge-building for use by policy-makers, the operational prediction community, the scientific community, and other down-stream stakeholders such as industry and emergency management service providers.

* Needs are defined by the US government and its missions to engage and explore space weather phenomena and its outcomes for the purposes of informing and protecting humankind. 10 Institute Organizational Tenets

• Generating and supporting O R with needs assessment, collaboration, and capability development that together meet the defined requirements, following an iterative model • Executing space weather mission leadership, design, development, and analysis • Including interdisciplinary and geographically diverse stakeholders (industry, academia, and government) across all phases of mission lifecycle • Cultivating future space weather education, research, engineering, modeling, and leadership talent for placement in industry, academia, and government • Improving outreach, partnership, and collaboration via modern communication and technology platforms • Promoting transparency, accountability, and publication of budgets, methods, and work products. 11 Consortium-Led Institute (or Center)

• Exact structure TBD. Reviewing examples set by the NASA Astrobiology Institute and the Space Federal Telescope Science Institute Source(s)

• Hub and spoke/networked model SWxI • Led by Executive Council (EC) Administration • EC biannually elects its Director and Deputy Space Directors Weather Industry Partners • Meetings at least, but not limited to, quarterly. Institute • Establish an initial strategic roadmap that reflects OR process and iteration, while dovetailing with the Decadal Survey Member Orgs

• Facilitate action teams and project teams Flow of direction • Assure successful physical and virtual Flow of budget communications and participation SWPC Operations

12 Summary

• Federal government’s acknowledgement and urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of the space weather environment, potential ramifications of its adverse affects, and the necessity to protect our standard of living.

• Challenges the Nation to work together to continually improve understanding, prediction, and preparedness to enhance the Nation’s resilience against severe space-weather events.

• The time is long overdue for agencies to pool resources and influences in order to charter a national Space Weather Institute. National Space Weather Institute (SWxI) Concept

Partnerships Are A Work In Progress…

[Thanks to Laura Hale] 14 National SWx Strategy: Implications within LASP

Requirements Popular acceptance; driver for definition & national and international acquisition commercial and governments sources Public Awareness & Planning & Space Observation Ground Observation Policy Element Assessment Element Element Element Ground- 3 2 Space 1 based missions & 6 4 5 instruments instruments, 5 5 mission ops, Ultimately drives Science contracts performance partnerships requirements & and data end for LV and needs users S/C Response & Prediction & Data Management & Science/Modeling Recovery Element Operational Modeling Services Element Research Element 2 3 Element1 4 5 6 4 5 6 4 5 6 Science Data distribution, investigations National SWx Strategy Goals: visualization, identifying what can stewardship be done 1 Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events 2 Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities LASP Engagement Level: 3 Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure Awareness 4 Note: “Elements” are 5 Improve Space-Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting Influence, Engagement, Collaboration internally defined architectural groupings 6 Increase International Cooperation Development Recent Achievements

LASP’s REPT Instrument Provides Key Space Weather Data

Van Allen Probes Mission Extended NASA Senior Review - 2015

Ukhorskiy et al. Eos [2016]