Space Weather RESEARCH ARTICLE Predicting the magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections 10.1002/2015SW001171 arriving at Earth: 1. Initial architecture Key Points: N. P.Savani1,2, A. Vourlidas1, A. Szabo2,M.L.Mays2,3, I. G. Richardson2,4, B. J. Thompson2, • First architectural design to predict A. Pulkkinen2,R.Evans5, and T. Nieves-Chinchilla2,3 a CME’s magnetic vectors (with eight events) 1 2 • Modified Bothmer-Schwenn CME Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute (GPHI), University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Maryland, USA, NASA 3 initiation rule to improve reliability Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA, Institute for Astrophysics and Computational Sciences (IACS), of chirality Catholic University of America, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, 4Department of Astronomy, University of • CME evolution seen by remote Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA, 5College of Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, Vancouver, USA sensing triangulation is important for forecasting Abstract The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is Correspondence to: predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth’s N. P. Savani, magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when the solar wind magnetic field has a southward
[email protected] component. The most severe impacts are during the arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) when the magnetosphere is both compressed and magnetically connected to the heliospheric environment. Citation: Unfortunately, forecasting magnetic vectors within coronal mass ejections remain elusive. Here we report Savani, N. P., A. Vourlidas, A. Szabo, M.L.Mays,I.G.Richardson,B.J. how, by combining a statistically robust helicity rule for a CME’s solar origin with a simplified flux rope Thompson, A.