The Deadlocking Factors in Myanmar’s Peace Process Gum San Awng, Mi Aye Khine, and Nyan Tun Aung Edited by Radka Antalíková, PhD 2 · Abstract / Acknowledgements Abstract Myanmar is a country with one of the world’s longest- The proposed formation of a single army and running civil conflicts. Myanmar’s successive governments commitment to non-secession, different interpretations have been trying to end these decades-long conflicts, of the text of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, and the current peace process plays a crucial role non-inclusion of some ethnic armed organizations, in the country’s development. However, Myanmar’s the role of the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee, peace process is moving forward very slowly with little the absence of national-level political dialogue in Shan progression. For instance, only 10 out of 18 government and Rakhine States, and the lack of unity among ethnic recognized ethnic armed organizations have signed the armed organizations were identified as deadlocking Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement thus far. It appears then factors of the current peace process in this research. that the peace process is blocked over some issues and To be able to move forward, these factors need to be it is necessary to identify problems first before seeking addressed. solutions. This research examined significant factors delaying the current Myanmar peace process, so that According to the results, stakeholders need to develop concerned parties can consider the ways forward after trust-building strategies and open way for inclusiveness recognizing these blocking factors. among the key players in the peace process. Moreover, to build trust and unity among ethnic armed Qualitative methodology was applied and in-depth organizations, they need to hold informal gatherings interviews with four high-level members of ethnic armed and conferences to discuss and decide on common organizations were conducted. objectives. Acknowledgement The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude suggestions. The authors would also like to thank Sayar to the Peace Leadership and Research Institute, which Saw Myo Min Thu, Executive Director of Thabyay Education provided financial support in order to conduct this Foundation, who was always ready to help and for giving research. Special thanks goes to Radka Antalíková and the best suggestions during the process of developing James MacMillan, the Peace Leadership and Research research questions. Last but not least, the authors are very Institute instructors. This research could not have been thankful to all participants for their active participation, achieved without their support, guidance, and valuable contribution, and for making this research at all possible. Introduction · 3 Introduction Myanmar is a multi-ethnic country with a long history government and eight EAOs on 15th October 2015; two of armed conflict between the military (Tatmadaw) and more EAOs signed the NCA in 2018. different ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). The origins of this conflict date back to the failure to implement The NCA is not only a ceasefire agreement, but also a the Panglong Agreement, which was signed in 1947 by framework under which the current formal peace process General Aung San and ethnic national leaders from the has been driven. The goal of the NCA is “to end decades of frontier areas (Shan, Kachin, and Chin). In the agreement, violence between ethnic armed groups and the Myanmar the ethnic leaders agreed to accept independence from army and to pave the way for political dialogue that will the British and to form the democratic Union together. eventually lead to peace and reconciliation” (Kipgen, Therefore, it was the Panglong Agreement that gave birth 2015, p. 409). In general, the text mentions ending to the present Myanmar, granting ethnic minorities their armed conflicts, holding a political dialogue, and finding rights, self-determination, and even the right to secede political solutions by forming a democratic federal union after a ten-year period (Sakhong, 2017). Unfortunately, (National Reconciliation and Peace Centre, 2015). In the head of the Panglong Agreement General Aung San accordance with this, the Union Peace Conference (UPC), was assassinated on 19th July 1947 and the Panglong also known as the 21st Century Panglong, has been held Agreement was never implemented. three times. The UPC aims to unite all ethnic nationalities and find solutions in order to build a democratic federal Myanmar gained independence from the British in 1948, union through dialogue. The three rounds of the UPC after which a parliamentary system of government have so far resulted in agreement on a total of 51 was set up. Yet, within only four months of achieving principles, covering political and economic issues as independence, armed conflicts between the then Burma well as social and land rights. However, key political and Communist Party and some ethnic groups broke out, security concerns have been excluded from the agenda of particularly the Karen revolutionary group (Walton, the UPC, such as equality, self-determination, and non- 2008). In 1962, citing armed conflicts and state instability, secession from the union. General Ne Win took power in a military coup. Under Ne Win’s military dictatorship, the promises of the Panglong Agreement were neglected and ethnic groups were Obstacles to Achieving Peace politically, socially, and economically marginalized. This is one of the main reasons numerous EAOs emerged and According to Nyan Hlaing Lynn (2017), there are seven have been fighting with the government for decades. obstacles to achieving peace in Myanmar and the biggest one among them is persuading all ethnic armed groups In 2010, after decades of oppressive military rule, the to sign the NCA. Indeed, despite continuous peace political transition from dictatorship to democracy talks, most of the strongest armed groups are still non- began and the military-backed Union Solidarity and signatory, and armed clashes continue in many ethnic Development Party won the general elections, though regions. Moreover, even though the non-signatory EAOs there were many accusations of electoral fraud. were allowed to attend sessions of the 21st Century On 18th August 2011, the president of the quasi- Panglong Conference as observers, they were forbidden democratic government U Thein Sein formally offered from participating in the talks and decision-making. Since peace talks to EAOs in a nationwide peace dialogue, inclusive participation of all ethnic armed groups is vital and between 2011 and 2013, bilateral agreements for a successful peace process, bringing the non-signatory between the government and 15 different EAOs were groups to the formal peace negotiation table remains a signed (Min Zaw Oo, 2014). In November 2013, the great challenge for the government. Nationwide Ceasefire Coordinate Team was formed as the main EAO negotiating body, at that time comprising Another significant obstacle to achieving peace is the of 16 EAOs, that drafted the text of the Nationwide issue of establishing a single national army, followed Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). The NCA was signed by the by the principle of non-secession and the right to self- 4 · Introduction determination for ethnic minority groups, that make up The above factors are the most explicit and most frequently a ’package deal’. In principle, EAOs accept the idea of a discussed in previous literature on Myanmar’s peace single army, but its structure and responsibility need to be process. However, there is reason to believe that there are discussed before full agreement. Instead, it appears that also some implicit peace-delaying factors. For the peace “the Tatmadaw has urged them [EAOs] to accept the basic process to be successful, it is necessary to identify both principles without knowing the full extent of the conditions implicit and explicit problems before seeking solutions. of the proposed single army” (Nyein Nyein, 2018). The Therefore, this research paper will explore how various issue of non-secession, proposed by the Tatmadaw and stakeholders involved in the Myanmar peace process see related to self-determination, also remains unresolved. the deadlocking factors and the ways forward. Methodology · 5 Methodology Qualitative research methodology was used in this questions by considering more follow-up questions study. Data was collected through semi-structured and re-structuring. interviews: because this study aimed to get in-depth information on the perspectives of different peace actors, being able to follow up immediately with Participant Selection and Procedure relevant questions was crucial. Another reason why the researchers chose the interview method was due to the For this research, the researchers purposely selected diverse and high positions of the respondents; it would four participants from four different entities that occupy have been very difficult to organize for all participants important roles and have a unique position in the peace to be present at the same time and place. Since the process. In the sample, top leaders from both NCA research respondents were from different backgrounds signatory and non-signatory EAOs were included. These and organizations, three separate interview guides respondents included one participant from the New were created: one for signatory groups, one for non- Mon State Party, one from the Kachin Independence signatories, and one for peace scholars. Each interview Organization (KIO), and one from