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DOMINGOS RODRIGUES PANDELO JUNIOR.Pdf 000000 Domingos Rodrigues Pandeló Júnior MODELO DE DETERMINAÇÃO DA PERFORMANCE RELATIVA EM PROVAS DE TRIATLO: UMA PROPOSTA COM BASE EM TAMANHO DE EFEITO Tese apresentada à Universidade Federal de São Paulo para obtenção de título de Doutor em Ciências do Movimento Humano e Reabilitação. SANTOS 2019 IV 000000 Domingos Rodrigues Pandeló Júnior MODELO DE DETERMINAÇÃO DA PERFORMANCE RELATIVA EM PROVAS DE TRIATLO: UMA PROPOSTA COM BASE EM TAMANHO DE EFEITO Tese apresentada à Universidade Federal de São Paulo para obtenção de título de Doutor em Ciências do Movimento Humano e Reabilitação Orientador: Prof. Dr. Emilson Colantonio SANTOS 2019 IV Pandeló Jr., Domingos Rodrigues Determinação da performance relativa em provas de triatlo: uma proposta com base em tamanho de efeito / Domingos Rodrigues Pandeló Jr. – Santos, 2019. xiii,122f. Tese de Doutorado - Universidade Federal de São Paulo. Campus Baixada Santista. Programa de Pós Graduação em Ciências do Movimento Humano e Reabilitação. Título em inglês: Determination of relative performance in triathlon events: a proposal based on effect size 1.Performance Relativa. 2.Triatlo. 3.Desempenho. 4.Tamanho de Efeito. P a iii n d e l ó Domingos Rodrigues Pandeló Júnior MODELO DE DETERMINAÇÃO DA PERFORMANCE RELATIVA EM PROVAS DE TRIATLO: UMA PROPOSTA COM BASE EM TAMANHO DE EFEITO Presidente da banca: Prof. Dr. Emilson Colantonio BANCA EXAMINADORA Prof. Dr._____________________________________ Prof. Dr._____________________________________ Prof. Dr._____________________________________ Prof. Dr._____________________________________ Aprovada em: / / iv UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SÃO PAULO CAMPUS BAIXADA SANTISTA DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS DO MOVIMENTO HUMANO Chefe de Departamento: Prof. Dra. Nara Rejane Cruz De Oliveira Coordenador do Programa de Pós-Graduação: Prof. Dr. Paulo H S M de Azevedo v Dedicatória Ao meus pais, Domingos R Pandeló (in memorian) e Marina A Pandeló, pelo exemplo de vida que me deram. À minha esposa, Andressa Abreu, pelo apoio em todas as horas. Aos meus filhos Rodrigo Pandeló e Maria Eduarda Pandeló, por me fazerem mais feliz e melhor. Sem vocês, tudo seria mais difícl, senão impossível. vi RESUMO PANDELÓ JR., D.R. Determinação da performance relativa em provas de triatlo: uma proposta com base em tamanho de efeito. 2019. f.122. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências do Movimento Humano e Reabilitação). Universidade Federal de São Paulo. Introdução: A prática desportiva, especialmente no alto rendimento, é extremamente complexa, multifatorial, de modo que as provas são decididas no detalhe. Em geral, a análise da performance de um atleta é mensurada, em provas individuais, pela sua posição final na mesma. No presente estudo será apresentada uma proposta alternativa capaz de ranquear os atletas levando-se em consideração a sua consistência, com base nos tempos obtidos e não apenas a sua posição final. Objetivo: Estabelecer um modelo de performance relativa que possa ser utilizado para a comparação do desempenho de atletas, independentemente da época em que os mesmos competiram, bem como ranquear atletas na atualidade. Metodologia: 24 atletas foram selecionados para compor a amostra. O critério de seleção foi o de ter figurado pelo menos cinco vezes entre os 10 primeiros colocados na prova do campeonato mundial de Ironman, no Havaii. Foi apresentado uma proposta de modelo, capaz de mensurar a performance relativa de atletas, com base na comparação da sua performance com a média das performances dos seus competidores, ajustado pelo desvio-padrão da performance média dos competidores. Resultados: Com base no modelo proposto calculou-se o ranking global de performance dos 24 atletas selecionados, bem como calculou-se o ranking por modalidade (natação, ciclismo e corrida) para cada um dos competidores. Conclusões: Uma medida de performance relativa, calculada com base em tamanho de efeito, e considerando o desempenho de cada atleta em relação ao desempenho médio dos demais competidores, pode ser um instrumento adicional para se avaliar a performance relativa dos atletas, bem como auxiliar treinadores e atletas na busca por uma melhor performance. Palavras Chave: Performance Relativa, Triatlo, Desempenho, Tamanho de Efeito. vii ABSTRACT PANDELÓ JR., D.R. Determination of relative performance in triathlon events: a proposal based on effect size. 2019. f.122. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências do Movimento Humano e Reabilitação). Universidade Federal de São Paulo. Introduction: Sports practice, especially in high performance, is extremely complex, multifactorial, so the result is decided in detail. In general, the analysis of the performance of an athlete is measured, in individual tests, by their final position in it. In the present study will be presented an alternative proposal able to rank the athletes taking into account their consistency, based on the times obtained and not just their final position. Objective: Establish a relative performance measure that can be used to compare the performance of athletes, contemporaries and / or over time, as well as rank current athletes. Methodology: 24 athletes were selected to compose the sample. The selection criterion was to have figured at least five times in the top 10 in the Ironman World Championship in Hawaii. A model proposal was presented, able to measure the relative performance of athletes, based on the comparison of their performance with the average performance of their competitors, adjusted by the standard deviation of the average performance of the competitors. Results: Based on the proposed model, the overall performance ranking of the 24 selected athletes was calculated, as well as the ranking by modality (swimming, cycling and running) for each of the competitors. Conclusions: A relative performance measure, based on effect size, and considering the performance of each athlete in relation to the average performance of the other competitors, can be an additional instrument to evaluate the relative performance of the athletes, as well as to assist coaches and athletes in search of better performance. Keywords: Relative Performance, Triathlon, Performance, Effect size. viii Lista de tabelas Tabela 1. Análise Top 10 2017 22 Tabela 2. Análise Top 10 2016 23 Tabela 3. Análise Top 10 2015 24 Tabela 4. Análise Top 10 2014 25 Tabela 5. Análise Top 10 2013 26 Tabela 6. Análise Top 10 2012 27 Tabela 7. Análise Top 10 2011 28 Tabela 8. Análise Top 10 2010 29 Tabela 9. Análise Top 10 2009 30 Tabela 10. Análise Top 10 2008 31 Tabela 11. Análise Top 10 2007 32 Tabela 12. Análise Top 10 2006 33 Tabela 13. Análise Top 10 2005 34 Tabela 14. Análise Top 10 2004 35 Tabela 15. Análise Top 10 2003 36 Tabela 16. Análise Top 10 2002 37 Tabela 17. Análise Top 10 2001 38 Tabela 18. Análise Top 10 2000 39 Tabela 19. Análise Top 10 1999 40 Tabela 20. Análise Top 10 1998 41 Tabela 21. Análise Top 10 1997 42 Tabela 22. Análise Top 10 1996 43 Tabela 23. Análise Top 10 1995 44 Tabela 24 Análise Top 10 1994 45 Tabela 25. Análise Top 10 1993 46 Tabela 26. Análise Top 10 1992 47 Tabela 27. Análise Top 10 1991 48 Tabela 28. Análise Top 10 1990 49 Tabela 29. Análise Top 10 1989 50 Tabela 30. Análise Top 10 1988 51 Tabela 31. Análise Top 10 1987 52 Tabela 32. Análise Top 10 1986 53 Tabela 33. Análise Top 10 1985 54 ix Tabela 34. Análise Top 10 1984 55 Tabela 35. Análise Top 10 1983 56 Tabela 36. Análise Top 10 1982 57 Tabela 37. Análise Top 10 1981 58 Tabela 38. Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada – Global 59 Tabela 39. Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada – Natação 60 Tabela 40. Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada – Ciclismo 61 Tabela 41. Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada – Corrida 62 Tabela 42. Correlação entre as etapas com base nos índices de 63 performance Tabela 43. Coeficiente de variação entres as etapas 63 x Sumário Dedicatória vi Resumo vii Abstract viii Lista de tabelas ix 1. INTRODUÇÃO 1 2. OBJETIVOS 2 2.1. Objetivo Geral 2 2.2. Objetivo Específico 2 3.REVISÃO DA LITERATURA 3 3.1. Triatlo e Performance 3 3.1.1 Caracterização do Triatlo 3 3.1.2 Performance 4 3.2 Métodos Quantitativos Aplicados à Performance 8 3.2.1 Aspectos Básicos 8 3.2.2 Tamanho da Amostra 11 3.2.3 Medidas de Tamanho de Efeito 12 4. MÉTODOS 15 4.1 Procedimentos Éticos 15 4.2 Amostra 15 4.3 Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustado (IPRA) Concepções Teóricas 16 4.3.1 Concepções Teóricas 16 4.3.2 Concepções Metodológicas 16 4.4 Modelo Teórico – IPRA família d 18 5. RESULTADOS 19 5.1 Número de vezes no TOP 10 19 5.2 Mudanças nos tempos da prova ao longo dos anos 19 5.3 Tempo médio por modalidade 20 5.4. Resultados Anuais – TOP 10 (2017/1981) 21 5.5 Modelo Proposto: Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada 59 5.5.1 Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada IPRA – Global (IPRAg) 59 5.5.2 Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada - Natação (IPRAn) 60 5.5.3 Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada – Ciclismo (IPRA_cic) 61 5.5.4 Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustada – Corrida (IPRA_cor) 62 5.6 Correlações entre as Etapas 63 5.7 Coeficiente de Variação entre as Etapas 63 6. DISCUSSÃO 64 6.1 Número de vezes no TOP 10 64 6.2. Mudanças nos Tempos da Prova ao Longo dos Anos 64 6.3. Análise Resultados Anuais – TOP 10 65 6.3.1 Visão Geral 67 6.3.2 Busca de Padrões nos Resultados 67 6.4. Modelo Proposto: Índice de Performance Relativa Ajustado - IPRAd 69 6.4.1 IPRAd Geral 69 6.4.2 IPRAd Natação (IPRAn) 70 6.4.3 IPRAd Ciclismo (IPRAcic) 70 6.4.4 IPRAd Corrida (IPRAcor) 70 6.5 Análise Multivariada com os Índices de Performance Relativa 70 6.6. Aplicações Práticas 72 7. LIMITAÇÕES DO MODELO 73 8. CONCLUSÕES 74 REFERÊNCIAS 75 ANEXOS 84 ANEXO 1 84 ANEXO 2 91 1.
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