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Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder Scheme Update 2006 - 2020 April 2006 1-3 Scheme Update Doc 7/4/06 4:00 pm Page 3

CONTENTS

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FOREWORD ...... 3

CHAPTER 1: THE CASE FOR INTERVENTION 1.1 THE STORY SO FAR ...... 4 1.2 THE HOUSING MARKET NOW ...... 6 1.3 FORECASTING THE FUTURE ...... 7 1.4 HULL’S ROLE IN THE REGION AND BEYOND ...... 7 1.5 WHAT WOULD HAPPEN WITHOUT HOUSING MARKET RENEWAL INTERVENTION ? ...... 8 1.6 ACTION NOW ...... 9

CHAPTER 2: THE STRATEGIC CONTEXT

2.1 NATIONAL AND PAN-NORTHERN STRATEGIES ...... 12 2.2 REGIONAL AND SUB-REGIONAL STRATEGIES ...... 13 2.3 LOCAL STRATEGIES ...... 16 2.4 CONCLUSION ...... 17

CHAPTER 3: THE DIAGNOSIS

3.1 HOUSING MARKET DRIVERS ...... 18 3.2 DEMAND FOR HOUSING ...... 20 3.3 HOUSING SUPPLY ...... 23 3.4 QUALITY OF LIFE ...... 27 3.5 ECONOMY AND POPULATION ...... 30 3.6 HOUSING MARKET GEOGRAPHY ...... 34 3.7 MANAGING UNCERTAINTY ...... 37 3.8 CONCLUSIONS ...... 37

CHAPTER 4: THE SPATIAL STRATEGY FOR HULL

4.1 THE SPATIAL STRATEGY: WHAT IS IT FOR? ...... 38 4.2 THE CONCEPT PLAN ...... 39 4.3 JOINT INVESTMENT PLANNING ...... 41 4.4 CONCLUSION ...... 47

CHAPTER 5: VISION, OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITIES

5.1 THE VISION ...... 48 5.2 STRATEGIC CORE OBJECTIVES ...... 49 5.3 COMPLEMENTARY OBJECTIVES ...... 49 5.4 STRATEGIC OUTCOMES ...... 51 5.5 OUR INTERVENTION PRIORITIES ...... 51 5.6 CONCLUSION ...... 55

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CONTENTS

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CHAPTER 6: DELIVERING HOUSING MARKET RENEWAL

6.1 PROGRAMME OVERVIEW ...... 56 6.2 NASA (NEWINGTON AND ST. ANDREW’S WARDS) ...... 59 6.3 EAST HULL ...... 64 6.4 NORTH HULL ...... 74 6.5 OTHER AREA INTERVENTIONS ...... 77 6.6 PRIVATE SECTOR DELIVERY PARTNERSHIPS ...... 77 6.7 CITY-WIDE INTERVENTIONS ...... 80 6.8 STRATEGIC PARTNER PROGRAMMES ...... 82 6.9 RESOURCE AND OUTPUT TABLES ...... 87 6.10 CONCLUSION ...... 88

CHAPTER 7: COMMUNITY SUPPORT

7.1 POLICY ON COMMUNICATION, CONSULTATION AND ENGAGEMENT ...... 90 7.2 DELIVERY OF COMMUNICATIONS, CONSULTATION AND ENGAGEMENT . . . .91 7.3 EMPOWERING AND SUPPORTING COMMUNITIES ...... 91 7.4 WHAT LEVEL OF SUPPORT DO WE HAVE? ...... 93 7.5 CONCLUSIONS ...... 95

CHAPTER 8: MANAGING PERFORMANCE

8.1 THE MONITORING AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK ...... 96 8.2 THE GATEWAY PERFORMANCE SYSTEMS ...... 97 8.3 REPORTING ON PERFORMANCE ...... 99 8.4 GOVERNANCE ARRANGEMENTS ...... 100 8.5 STAFFING ARRANGEMENTS ...... 101 8.6 CONCLUSION ...... 103

LIST OF SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS ...... 105

GLOSSARY OF TERMS ...... 106

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FOREWORD

This scheme update This scheme update demonstrates how we have sets out Gateway’s worked with our partners to develop and deliver plans for the next our proposals. It is clear that only by working four years. The level together can we ensure that we maximise the full of housing market impact of our different projects in regenerating weakness in Hull the area. We will continue to enhance this joint remains extremely working with a range of partners including Hull high, but there is a City Council and the East Riding of Yorkshire real opportunity to Council, private developers, social housing make a difference. partners, health agencies and regional and sub- regional agencies. We have made remarkable progress since the submission of our first prospectus in 2004. We Improving neighbourhoods is fundamental to our have focused on delivering our first year work. We will continue to work with local programme and planning a way forward through communities and listen to their views about what consultation and developing our strategy, is needed to create sustainable places for the particularly in joining up our planning with that of future. our key partners. The proposals in this scheme update represent a We need £35 million over the next two years to huge opportunity for regeneration across the area lay the foundations for transformational change, and we look forward to working with all our meeting our objectives to revitalise Hull’s housing partners to deliver this housing transformation. market which are: Stuart Whyte • Improving the housing offer in Hull linked to improved economic performance Chair, Gateway • Reducing the level of low demand properties in Hull • Radically improving the inner city collar area of Hull • Helping to build mixed and sustainable communities in social housing areas where necessary • Supporting communities and individuals affected by change • Improving the quality and design of housing.

The partners signing up to the scheme update, April 2006

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Intervention in the housing markets in Hull • we have contributed to the draft Regional and the East Riding of Yorkshire is just as Spatial Strategy and led the development of a important now as it was in 2004 when spatial strategy for Hull; Gateway came into being. Our vision remains: • we are making good progress in building up a staff team and creating a delivery structure in For the Hull housing market area to be a partnership with the private sector, all tailored place where people choose to live, a place to our specific needs; of prosperous, diverse and sustainable communities and vibrant neighbourhoods, • in the first year, we have delivered 100% of providing an enviable quality of life our targets and spent 100% of our available for all. grant; • we have continued to engage with This chapter sets out why we need intervention. communities and can demonstrate strong It details how we have dealt with the feedback community support for the proposals outlined from ODPM on our first prospectus and the Audit in this scheme update. Commission’s recommendations which have led to improvements in our evidence base, market understanding and strategy for tackling housing The original Gateway proposals were heavily market weaknesses. challenged by the ODPM and the Audit Commission during the negotiation period in Our confidence has grown as a result of a 2004/05. The particular cause for concern was successful year’s activity. But even though that whilst the evidence showed that population housing markets have strengthened to a degree, and household numbers in the city have been the underlying weaknesses will continue to reducing over the long term, Gateway’s original undermine the regeneration of Hull unless we plans were built on the policy of ‘build first and take determined action to address them through demolish later’. Put simply, government agencies the Housing Market Renewal Programme. were concerned, given these economic and population trajectories, that the level of new 1.1 THE STORY SO FAR building proposed would significantly increase the empty property rate in the city at least in the Following submission of the first prospectus, the short term, rather than reduce it, which is one of ODPM awarded Gateway a £16 million grant in the aims of the HMR programme. early 2005. A bidding range for support of between £25m to £35m during 2006/07 and 2007/08 was given, subject to satisfactory performance during 2005/06 and submission of a satisfactory scheme update.

We have made remarkable progress over the last year: • we have further developed our evidence base; • we have built up a rational strategic framework for our investment that commands political support; • we have developed a commissioning framework to ensure that projects directly deliver our objectives; • we have continued to improve the good working partnership between Hull City Council Wyke Avenue, Newington and St Andrew’s and the East Riding of Yorkshire Council;

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Ings Road area - Caspon properties Newington & St Andrew’s

The Audit Commission made a number of strategy, options appraisal, and the recommendations to be addressed in developing commissioning of local masterplanning. We have, this scheme update. These are set out in however, undertaken a root and branch overhaul Supporting Document 1, together with a of the strategic framework which underpins our summary of the actions we have taken. They proposals and objectives. Most importantly, we address the Audit Commission’s concerns and now propose to focus our initial activity along the build upon a number of positive elements in the “axis of regeneration” in Hull linked to the original prospectus, for example, the wide and Humber waterfront, which is where most comprehensive range of data. These areas have economic activity is, and will be, generated. been strengthened even further as a result of our These are detailed in Chapters 4 and 5 work during the year. respectively, and have led directly to the intervention programme set out in Chapter 6. Much of the work undertaken for the first prospectus remains valid, and has provided a sound basis for our scheme update preparation work, particularly the development of our

Chart 1: House price trends 1998-2005 £ 220,000 200,000 180,000

160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000

40,000 20,000 0

O-D 1998 O-D 1999 O-D 2000 O-D 2001 O-D 2002 O-D 2003 O-D 2004 O-D 2005

Hull East Riding of Yorkshire England & Wales

Source: HM Land Registry

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Map 1: Vacant properties December 2005

Source: Hull City Council

This strategic review has led to a rethinking of East Riding of Yorkshire have increased the way in which regeneration investment is proportionately more in the period. More planned and coordinated across the city. recently, house prices have levelled out in Crucially, there is now a visible “golden thread” East Riding, with Hull catching up to some which connects our analysis of the housing extent. markets to the selection and prioritisation of projects for investment. This, in turn, links into the wider city regeneration plans. • There have been significant reductions in the number of empty Council homes over the last 1.2. THE HOUSING MARKET NOW three years, some 755 (33%) altogether, with the proportion of properties empty for six Over the last year, there have been some small months or more falling from 4.1% in April improvements in the housing market in our 2003 to 3.2% in December 2005. There have intervention area. The latest research and been some 1,134 demolitions over this period. analysis is detailed in Chapter 3, and is • On the other hand, the number of empty summarised here. Overall, it is clear that the private sector homes has increased and the market remains critically weak. number of empty private sector properties empty for 6 months or more has increased by • Recent population loss from the city has 60% from 1,921 in April 2002 to 3,068 in slowed and 2004 saw a net increase of April 2005. around 600 people – the first yearly increase since 1994. However, the long term trend Private sector empty properties are concentrated remains downwards, and Office of National in a ring around the city centre, the collar of Statistics long term projections show mainly Victorian terraced housing, as well as continuing population loss from Hull. smaller concentrations of empty properties in • House prices in Hull continue to perform some council estates which are the subject of below the regional average, at an average of regeneration proposals. This is clearly illustrated £82,102 in December 2005, whilst those in in Map 1 above.

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Hull is the ninth most deprived local authority in Changes to the city’s housing offer, including the country, and the most deprived in the schools, crime and the environment are Yorkshire and Humber Region. There are major imperative to attract and retain the more concentrations of deprivation in the area economically active in the city irrespective of surrounding the city centre and in some outer wider economic trends. This can also start to council estates, as the more economically active make a difference irrespective of any immediate have moved to the outer strategic area in the change in the economy. This new housing offer East Riding of Yorkshire. can then provide a platform for sustainable communities for workers for the new economy. 1.3 FORECASTING THE FUTURE The City of Hull is at an important point in its We have commissioned work to enhance our regeneration. There is a new vision in Hull’s understanding of economic and employment Community Strategy and a clear commitment trends and their impact on housing demand, and from all partners to deliver it. There is still this has helped us determine the most uncertainty in predicting the City Region’s appropriate level of forecast demand for housing. economic trajectory over the next decade. In The work shows that: order to manage market renewal activities against this background of uncertainty we have • at £19,251, Hull has significantly lower levels developed a plan, monitor and manage approach. of full time earned income compared to the This includes: Yorkshire and Humber region (£21,514); • the development of economic milestones • Hull has high levels of economic inactivity and which will allow us to measure the pace of unemployment, compared to national and economic development, and adjust our regional levels. The economic activity rate is housing market renewal activity accordingly. 74.1% for people of working age, compared These are described more fully in Section 4.3; to 77.5% in the region as a whole and 78.3% for Great Britain; • a Dwelling Stock Budget (see Supporting Document 2). This allows us to measure • the Great Britain economy has seen a shift changes in the stock of dwellings in the from manufacturing to the sectors which are Pathfinder and wider housing market areas, key to the knowledge economy and and also to model changes resulting from employment growth. Hull’s economy has planned interventions. Set against the remained heavily reliant on manufacturing, forecasts for the number of households in the which is more vulnerable to job losses in the city, we will have a mechanism for evaluating longer term; the supply/demand balance on an annual • employment scenarios give a wide range of basis, and managing the risk which attaches; forecasts for full time equivalent jobs in Hull • both Hull City Council and the East Riding of of between 70,000 and 115,000 by 2017, Yorkshire Council are committed to managing depending on the methodology and the release of land throughout the strategic assumptions used. This compares to around area to support our agreed strategy; 103,000 in 2003. • regular monitoring of housing market trends and changes in the economic performance of Based on all of this research we propose to plan the strategic area. for the next four years on the basis of a prudent mid-range scenario similar to the long term trend. This will be regularly reviewed. If this trend 1.4. HULL’S ROLE IN THE REGION AND were to continue, the number of households in BEYOND the city in 2017 would be around 108,800 compared to 108,000 in 2005. This is being used Gateway’s housing market renewal proposals as a planning target for the next few years, but have a significance beyond that of the City and its will be adjusted in future strategy reviews in the quarter of a million residents. Hull is the only city light of monitoring. and the leading urban core in the Hull and Humber Ports City Region. The Housing Market There is a strong link between population size Renewal (HMR) Programme has encouraged a and the economy at the sub-regional level and more sophisticated analysis of the links between over the long term, but the link is less strong at a housing market change, economic development more local level and over the short term. and planning. The Regional Economic Strategy

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recognises the importance of linking quality of • The economically active will continue to prefer place to economic development. to live in the East Riding of Yorkshire, bringing major pressure on house prices there We support the vision for Hull and the Humber and on sites for housing development. Ports set out in the first City Region Development • Graduate retention will fail to improve. Programme, together with priority actions and investments to achieve it: • Private housing developers will continue to invest in Hull, for example at Kingswood. “…a Global Gateway with a thriving, outward However, windfall sites particularly in the leafy looking, sustainable economy, building on its suburbs will be developed without regard to unique assets of location, the estuary, ports, an overall spatial strategy or prioritisation of connectivity and physical environment, regeneration areas. perpetually changing for the benefit of people, • New house building in Hull is currently at a businesses and the environment, whilst making level of about 500 per year. If this continued significant contributions to the sustainability of it would increase the total stock to about regional, national and European communities.” 123,000 by 2021. Allowing for a continuing fall in average number of persons per Hull has a particularly key role to play in the household, recent falls in the proportion of economic transformation, and it is clear that the stock vacant would be reversed, rising to radical transformation of Hull’s housing markets is almost 18% if population continued to fall at a crucial element of that plan. 1996-2003 rates. • Housing conditions in regeneration priority 1.5. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN WITHOUT areas will worsen, especially long term HOUSING MARKET RENEWAL empties. INTERVENTION? • Anti-social behaviour will worsen; fear of Supposing we did nothing to intervene in Hull’s crime will rise especially in the inner city collar housing markets. What would happen to long and outer estates. term population trends? What would be the • Although the new retail and leisure effect on the creation of jobs and economic developments centre will be successful, a development in the area? And what would the lower than expected growth in retail financial implications be? expenditure will see significant numbers of older shops closing permanently or reopening We have modelled a ‘do nothing’ scenario, as charity/economy outlets. removing Gateway and housing market renewal • New employers or new jobs will be less interventions completely from the picture. It attracted to Hull, and the city will start to assumes that other investments such as Decent drop to the more pessimistic economic Homes, Building Schools for the Future, and development scenario. Citybuild will continue as planned. It assumes that at the outset, the private sector will continue • The market for city living will dry up, to develop housing in Hull on commercial terms frustrating Citybuild’s attempts to regenerate and that the Joint Structure Plan approach, the city centre by means of mixed limiting new housing in the East Riding of commercial/residential developments. Yorkshire, is in place. (Supporting Document 2 • House prices will stagnate in the city, whilst sets this out in more detail). The headline the region enjoys a housing market rising in findings are set out below. line with national trends; the inner city collar of Hull will be particularly affected as even • Population in Hull will continue to decline, but the private landlord sector will see little at a rate significantly faster than if there was opportunity for profit and long term empties successful housing market intervention. Over are particularly concentrated here. the period 1996-2003 the city's population fell • Transport infrastructure improvements will be by over 16,000, averaging a loss of 0.9% per deferred on the grounds that demand has not year. At that rate the population by 2021 yet materialised. would be only 210,000 a reduction of 30,000 from 2005. • Eventually the moratorium on greenfield housing development in the East Riding will • Polarisation of the housing market will be rescinded. worsen, leaving a higher proportion of economically inactive households in the city.

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• Building Schools for the Future proposals will This is essentially a market operation, with the be recalibrated to take account of lower than private sector delivering investment needed in anticipated school rolls. partnership with Gateway whose role is to create • The City Council tax base will continue to the right conditions for that investment. This erode, causing budget cuts and deterioration means: in services. • strategic planning for a sustainable future;

Of course, this is merely one possible outcome to • alignment of other regeneration strategies; the scenario, demonstrating the interconnection • early use of public funds for pump priming between the various regeneration activities, and investment. their propensity to spiral together, in this case in a downward direction. The spiral could be We have already begun this task with small scale redirected for example by a major employer incremental change using our modest Year 1 relocating to Hull and attracting other high value programme to start to create confidence and service providers. However, it is difficult to see build delivery capacity. The next stage to 2010 how this would spontaneously improve housing will provide the bridge between the things that markets as those who could afford to would are possible now, and the truly transformational continue to live outside of the city, in fact proposals that will deliver our long term vision for increased economic growth without housing the Hull housing market to be an area where market intervention is most likely to accelerate people choose to live. population drift. Our key interventions in the early years will focus Our conclusion, therefore, is that without serious on Newington and St Andrew’s (NaSA) in West market intervention, there will be no real Hull where we can create somewhere really improvement in Hull’s housing markets, and special by replacing the worst of the Victorian worse, lack of intervention will jeopardise all the terraced housing with a unique blend of housing other regeneration plans which are currently for sale and to rent and enhancing the historic being put in place. qualities of the area. This can truly provide a new offer both for existing residents and to 1.6. ACTION NOW attract and retain families in the city close to the city centre. We have concluded that whilst there have been modest improvements in one or two indicators, In East Hull we will build on the strength of the overall, the market remains critically weak. attractive leafy suburbs at Ings and work back Hull sits at the centre of an economy which into the core area, while supporting the work of affects the whole City Region, and is an integral Preston Road New Deal for Communities (NDC) to component of the Northern Way Growth Strategy. provide a long term sustainable community. Successful housing markets are critical for the City Region, and we have developed an understanding of the wide consequences of failing to reverse current trends.

The essence of housing market failure in Hull is a poor housing offer driving depopulation. Changing the housing offer is about improving quality and the fine grain mix of housing. The scale of housing market intervention needed is of the order of 9,100 houses cleared and replaced with 7,645 new homes in mixed communities over a period of 15 years, with improvements to a further 3,325. At today’s prices, this will cost some £1.1bn, with around half of this needed to come from Housing Market Renewal Funding. Victoria Dock Urban Village

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In the long term, we are confident we can create a positive spiral of housing market confidence, in which:

• the housing offer improves, home buyers become more active, vacancy rates fall and house prices begin to close in on regional trends; • private sector investor confidence grows, allowing more transformational regeneration plans to be rolled out; • population decline in the city slows and eventually reverses;

• the economic health of the city centre Newland Avenue improves, bringing an uplift in retail spending and commercial investment, and enabling city centre regeneration plans to accelerate; • pupils and schools continue to perform better and better; • crime rates decline, and fear of crime diminishes; • levels of multiple deprivation fall, with fewer of Hull’s neighbourhoods in the most deprived 10% nationally; • Hull’s economic resurgence is noticed nationally, improving its image and reinforcing the view that this is a good place to live and work.

Mixed development at Gipsyville

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Gateway has worked with a wide range of • the rate of demolition and stock replacement stakeholders to align our emerging strategy should increase; with the national, regional and sub-regional • the right mix of housing types is important, strategic frameworks in order to deliver with more high quality aspirational housing in housing market renewal in Hull. areas of low demand needed; We have influenced partners as they • stronger public-private partnerships are develop these strategies, in order to needed to strengthen capacity to deliver. position housing market renewal within this wider context. We have particularly Its growth strategies focus on City Regions, contributed to the draft Regional Spatial including ‘The Hull and the Humber Ports’ for Strategy and have led the development of which the City of Hull is the main urban focus. an initial Spatial Strategy for Hull, as we The Northern Way provides a driver for strategy see these as most crucial to delivering development and the prioritisation of funding to successful regeneration. tackle the most important issues which will help this City Region contribute to national economic 2.1 NATIONAL AND PAN-NORTHERN growth. Stakeholders in the City Region STRATEGIES acknowledge that a new trajectory is necessary which needs to: Our strategy and proposals respond to two mutually reinforcing national policy drivers: • focus on what makes a difference; • the role of cities and City Regions in • make better use of our assets and be delivering sustainable economic growth: and, positive; • the importance of a quality residential offer as • embrace and drive change; and, the basis for sustainable communities. • link more effectively with others. The Urban White Paper 2000 – ‘Our Towns and Cities: The Future’ identified ways to make cities Map 2 identifies the Hull and Humber Ports at the more desirable places to live, to tackle the poor heart of a vital communications route linking environment in many urban centres and to Northern Europe to the centre of Britain, and on encourage actions to revive flagging economies in to Ireland. some urban areas. It was an important milestone in emergent national thinking about the critical importance of cities within the economy. The Regional Economic Strategy (draft October, 2005) recognises the need for collaboration The Northern Way Growth Strategy sets a new between cities across the region and the challenge: “to establish the North of England as importance of developing sustainable an area of exceptional opportunity combining a communities to achieve strong economies – see world class economy with a superb quality of life” section 2.2. to counter-balance the rate of growth in the south, especially the south east. It recognises The Sustainable Communities Plan published that future economic success depends, in part, on by ODPM in February 2003 recognises that lasting whether the North can offer communities that are housing outcomes will not be achieved without desirable places to live and invest and makes a successful regeneration. Gateway’s role is to help critical link between housing quality and the deliver this strategy by tackling housing market North’s economic potential. For housing it weakness. stresses that:

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Sustainable Communities are places that offer Community Cohesion: people: Where there is a common vision and a sense of • a decent home that they can afford; belonging for all communities, the diversity of • a community in which they want to live and people’s different backgrounds and circumstances work; is appreciated and positively valued, those from different backgrounds have similar life • the chance to develop their skills and opportunities and strong and positive interests; relationships are being developed between people • access to jobs and excellent services; and, from different backgrounds in the workplace, in schools and within neighbourhoods. • the chance to get engaged in their community and to make a difference. Home Office Gateway sees community cohesion as an The national planning system is currently important strand of sustainable communities, and undergoing fundamental change so that it we are using Housing Market Renewal Funds to becomes more responsive. In our area, support communities as they go through the government objectives of urban regeneration and transformation of their neighbourhoods. Our aim the re-use of previously developed land are vital. is to create mixed communities which gain In this area the Joint Structure Plan adopted by strength from diversity and are welcoming of the Hull City Council and East Riding of Yorkshire new generation of workers that will arrive to help Council has been saved to ‘act as’ the core drive our economy. We are particularly aligning strategies for both Hull and the East Riding, in our plans for new and refurbished housing to a accordance with ODPM advice. Initial work on the wide range of needs, including responding to Hull new core strategy for Hull (which will align closely City Council’s Black and Minority Ethnic Housing with the new Community Strategy and its Strategy. emerging spatial strategy) has started. Adoption of the final core strategy for Hull is currently 2.2 REGIONAL AND SUB-REGIONAL anticipated for May 2009. In the East Riding of STRATEGIES Yorkshire the need for a new Core Strategy will be reviewed in the light of the outcome of the Regional strategy sets out the City of Hull as one revised Regional Spatial Strategy 12. Gateway is of the keys to improving the region’s economic sponsoring the creation of two Area Action Plans, performance, and failing housing markets as one linked to its early intervention areas in NaSA and of the most significant issues that need to be East Hull. addressed.

Map 2: The Hull and Humber Ports

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The Regional Economic Strategy has built on and national economies in terms of its retail and the concept of the City Region and provides a leisure offer, business support and knowledge tool for delivering the Northern Way in the region. based employment sectors, as well as being a successful port. Our cities, in particular, have a major role to play in driving competitiveness. Innovative and The Hull and Humber Ports City Region ambitious cities are vital components to a Development Programme (CRDP) sets out thriving, forward looking economy. The region the role and priorities for the City Region’s needs cities and towns, places that have development under the umbrella of the Northern distinctive feels, a sense of buzz and that people Way Growth Strategy. This programme is a key love to live in. We need places where people and driver of the economic performance of the city businesses enjoy an economy and quality of life and the port and it is crucial for Gateway’s that improves year by year. success. Supporting Document 3, ‘A Case Study: Regional Economic Strategy, Yorkshire and the the Northern Way’, analyses in detail the Humber 2006-2015, Government Draft, October 2005 relationships between The Northern Way, the City Region Development Programme and the Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder strategy. The critical If the impact of successful port development is to role for Gateway is to ensure economic be converted into broader economic success for regeneration and housing market renewal plans the City Region, Hull needs to accelerate the are mutually supportive. We are working to transformation in the structure of its own achieve this and have set some targets and economy. Hull provides the economic platform for milestones to measure progress (see section 4.3). the City Region, and consequently makes a significant contribution to sub-regional, regional

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The Regional Housing Strategy gives clear THE YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER PLAN (RSS): direction to work in partnership to provide good KEY POLICIES FOR GATEWAY quality homes and successful neighbourhoods that meet the aspirations of current and future Housing Provision residents. Understanding and influencing the housing market is key to its approach. The The headlines of the RSS approach are: Regional Housing Board has endorsed Gateway’s bid for increased housing market funding in future • Providing sufficient homes to house the years in recognition of its role in dealing with low additional households expected to form across demand, one of the Board’s three strategic the Region to 2021(H1); objectives. The Board has supported funding for • Managing the release of housing land to complementary activity in relation to Gateway’s support housing market restructuring in low scheme update, for example funding for Decent demand areas (H2); Homes Standard and refurbishment work in private sector homes in NaSA. • Creating a better mix of housing across the Region to reflect people’s need (H4). Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS), called the RSS includes different rates of house building in Yorkshire and Humber Plan, will replace Regional different time periods over the Plan period, with Planning Guidance (RPG) in 2007 and will present housing policy break points at 2011 and 2016. a clearer spatial vision for the region. In the This reflects the strategy to plan for a different consultation draft (January 2006), the key policies pattern of house building in the latter periods of which affect Gateway are set out below. Hull is the Plan from that in the earlier period. The aim identified as having a regional and national role in of this approach is to direct more housing to the relation to the port and as the service centre for urban areas over time as planned regeneration the Humber sub-region and the focus for strategies take effect and out-migration from economic and housing development. Among other urban to rural areas reduces. things, thr RSS distributes new housing provision across the region. In Hull, a lower portion of housing provision is proposed compared to existing plans and past Over the period of the RSS to 2021, the sub- completion levels. This reflects market delivery area’s main urban areas should confirm and issues, and relatively poorer economic prospects. advance their roles. Hull is an important sub- This will support the transformation of the city by regional centre, and its city centre provides retail, focussing regeneration in the early years and leisure and business and personal services for stepping up requirements in the second and third most of the north bank part of the sub-area. At phases. the end of the RSS plan period, the regeneration and urban renaissance of Hull will have improved East Riding planning proposals for the edge of its role, performance and quality. Hull will have Hull will also be an important strategic become a strong focus for development consideration. opportunities and the provision of services facilities. Policy H2 sets out how the scale of provision of The Draft Yorkshire and Humber Plan, December, 2005 new housing adjoining Pathfinder and other areas with failing markets will be managed so as not to Gateway has made a significant contribution to undermine renewal. This could include refusal of developing the RSS, working closely with planners planning permission or removal of housing from both Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire allocations, and will be backed up by careful Councils. We have a joined up view of the monitoring arrangements. In due course, this will emerging policies, and of the need to monitor supersede the current Joint Structure Plan and manage the housing allocations. The policies. detailed numbers in the plan are supportive of Gateway’s strategy, but still require some Policy H4 states that Hull (alongside other refinement. market renewal areas) would particularly benefit from a change in the current mix of housing provision, and sets out policies for implementing this. The mix should be based on up to date market assessments, and with the work commissioned by Gateway, Hull and the East Riding will be in a strong position to be able to

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influence mix effectively for the benefit of Hull Community Strategy ‘Living, Learning and improving housing markets. Working: A Community Strategy for Hull 2006 -11’ was finalised in March 2006. Its vision is that by Other key spatial strategy issues include: 2020:

The role of the Humber ports in a national “Hull is a City which is living, learning, working, context as a global gateway to Europe and healthy and proud. One of the most important beyond is recognised and will be supported cities in Northern Europe, we are a gateway for through RSS policies. This is supportive of current global trade and the heart of a prosperous policy direction within the sub-region and reflects Humber sub-region”. the Northern Way context. The delivery of the objectives and priorities of the RSS focuses on the main urban areas for new Community Strategy are crucial to the delivery of development and this focus should be reinforced Gateway’s own vision. The key priorities which as far as possible. This means continuing to affect Gateway are outlined in the box below. concentrate new development opportunities in the Alignment of targets and priorities/programming City of Hull to strengthen its role as the sub- relative to our early intervention areas is the next regional centre as proposed in the draft RSS. The task in ensuring we tackle the housing market development of the City Region Development weakness in the city holistically. A revised Local Programme will take these proposals one step Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy which identifies further towards implementation. priority neighbourhoods for action (likely to be Gateway has urged that the emphasis of the coterminous with Gateway’s intervention areas to document should focus more strongly on the role a large degree) will be prepared by Autumn 2006. of Hull within the region and sub-region, not only in the detailed document but in the higher level HULL COMMUNITY STRATEGY: KEY summaries. Otherwise it can appear that Leeds PRIORITIES and Sheffield are being more supported as urban centres within the region and their sub-areas than The community strategy contains three core Hull is. themes, each with a vision for how things will be in 2020, together with objectives, priority actions 2.3 LOCAL STRATEGIES and targets for achieving the vision. A number of local strategies are relevant to Gateway: The key objectives for the Jobs and Prosperity theme over the five years to 2011 are: The Joint Structure Plan (JSP) was prepared for the combined local authority area of Kingston • improve the quality of Hull’s business upon Hull and the East Riding of Yorkshire and infrastructure; adopted in 2005. The JSP promotes a shift in recent patterns of housing development, setting a • enhance the competitiveness of Hull’s target of reducing housing completions in the businesses; East Riding and increasing them in Hull. This • rebuild Hull’s entrepreneurial culture and policy is now incorporated into the draft RSS and increase the business birth rate; the JSP has been adopted as the interim core • encourage employers to invest in higher level strategy by both local authorities. Other more skills for their employees; detailed policies will be superseded by Local Development Frameworks when developed. In • develop and improve the marketing of Hull as Hull, the Local Plan (adopted 2000) will be a good place to invest and do business. replaced by a new core strategy by May 2009. Statutory Area Action Plans will be developed for For Education, Learning and Skills the key NaSA and East Hull, our early intervention areas, objectives are: where Gateway’s Lead Developer Partners will lead this work under the control of the Local • transform Hull’s schools to enable all Hull Planning Authority. children to access high quality learning and ensure that all local schools are at the heart The City Centre Masterplan is being developed of their communities; into a City Centre Area Action Plan, due for • improve literacy and numeracy (for children adoption by May 2008. and adults) to enhance access to opportunity;

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• improve participation and achievement in 2.4 CONCLUSION post-16 learning; • create new pathways to work and learning for Aligning strategies with other stakeholders is Hull’s economically inactive residents. essential if we are to successfully achieve a rejuvenated housing market which is sustainable. Sub-regional economic, planning and housing For Quality of Life, the inter-related objectives strategies reinforce Gateway’s activities. We have are: been able to successfully influence the key stakeholders responsible for the City Region • reduce crime, fear of crime and anti-social Development Programme, the Regional Housing behaviour to make Hull a safer place; Strategy, the Yorkshire and Humber Plan (RSS), • improve the supply of quality housing across and the Hull Housing Strategy, and we are all tenures, and the environmental quality of making a major contribution to the development Hull’s neighbourhoods; of Hull’s Spatial Strategy as a precursor to implementing the Local Development Framework. • increase life expectancy by reducing avoidable ill health and early death; • empower citizens and communities to participate in managing their own neighbourhoods.

Hull City Housing Strategy 2005-2008 was published in Spring 2005. There are five broad objectives, which are strongly supportive of Gateway’s goals. These are:

• Creating a Balanced Housing Supply - geared towards working closely with Gateway, and aligning other key strategies • Quality Places - Homes and Neighbourhoods - deals with Decent Homes in the social and private sectors, a well as environmental improvements, empty homes, affordable warmth, and neighbourhood management • Community Cohesion - covers Hull’s Supporting People Strategy, Homeless Strategy, Equalities Action Plan, disabilities and access, health and housing pathways, and advice • Excellent Services • Partnerships and Involvement.

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We have reviewed and updated our housing The lack of diversity in the housing stock is market intelligence, re-evaluating the seven a key issue and it is compounded by social and drivers of housing market change identified environmental issues, particularly education, but in our original prospectus. This chapter re- also by the perception of crime and the overall analyses the market under four broad environment. Basically, choosing a home is about groups of drivers, namely demand, supply, choosing a neighbourhood and all of the quality of life, and economy and population. qualitative issues that go with it as the following research findings demonstrate. We also examine the housing market geography of Hull and show how we will • Research for the 2004 Prospectus showed manage our programme in the light of the that 20% of Hull households would choose a inherent uncertainties of forecasting home in the ‘leafy suburbs’ if available, but housing markets. that the ‘leafy suburbs’ account for no more than 10% of the housing stock in the city. 3.1 HOUSING MARKET DRIVERS When unable to exercise their first choice of a home in the ‘leafy suburbs’, many residents For our first prospectus, PricewaterhouseCoopers will choose to migrate to the East Riding. explored the drivers of the housing market in • Research by MRUK in 2005 into areas of new- Hull. Their report concluded: build housing in Hull and the outer strategic area shows that most residents were satisfied “We believe that the inappropriate supply of with their neighbourhood as a place to live housing together with the economic decline and (although residents in Hull city centre were migration from Hull has been the main cause of most likely to be dissatisfied). Around one in housing market decline in the Pathfinder area.” five of all respondents interviewed, expected to move to a different home in the next five Our latest analysis of the housing market years and most expected to move within or to substantiates their findings. However, we have suburban areas outside of Hull. Generally identified some more subtle but still powerful speaking those wishing to move did not feel factors that are in play that have deepened our that improvements in the current area would understanding. Their interrelationships are encourage them to stay, although almost one summarised in Figure 1 below. in ten did say that an improvement in the reputation of local schools would help. Whilst The fundamental issue for Hull is one of 46% of residents who had moved to the residential sorting. Differential migration of outer strategic area came from Hull, only 7% the better off households to the East Riding of those moving to Hull came from the outer leaves the poorer and more economically inactive strategic area. households in Hull. This is demonstrated by:

• NOMIS earnings statistics show that average This suggests that persuading those who have earnings for Hull residents are £350.10, whilst left to return will be very difficult, and our first average earnings for those working in Hull are objective should be to encourage those who live significantly higher at £384.00 per week. in Hull to remain.

• special migration statistics from the 2001 House prices have risen in the last couple of census show that Hull lost population, in net years, but prices in Hull have not kept pace terms, in all age groups to the East Riding overall with the rest of the UK. House price rises except 15-19 and 20-24, (probably student have made affordability more of an issue, due to movements). The only economic groups particularly low local earnings. The rise in house showing a net inflow to Hull were students, prices in Hull and the increased differential the unemployed and ‘other between Hull and East Riding prices has been inactive’.

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accompanied by increased demand for Council We recognise that whilst addressing the economic housing in Hull and reduced out-migration to the issues is crucial, increasing the number of jobs East Riding. alone is insufficient. Higher paid jobs in the knowledge based economy may be the long term These are cyclical effects, and indications now are aim, but shorter term we need jobs which match that the price differential between Hull and the the available skills, and for those who do East Riding is falling again, and house prices in command better salaries, we need to ensure that Hull are starting to catch up to some extent. the housing offer in Hull is sufficient to tempt Whatever the short term cyclical effects may be, them to live and remain in the city. there remains a fundamental long term weakness in the Hull housing market which needs to be tackled with long term interventions.

Figure 1: The relationship between housing market drivers

FUELS EXACERBATES POLARISATION PUSH FACTORS (between East Riding (from Hull) and Hull) and SEGREGATION (in Hull)

PULL FACTORS Accelerated by: PUSH FACTORS to East Riding • Planning policies from HULL • Greater choice/ in 1990s • Lack of choice quality in housing MAIN DRIVER • Accessibility to • Poor quality and market Hull from East obsolescent housing Out-migration to • Lower crime levels Riding East Riding of • Economic transition • Better the economically and unemployment environmental active • Deprivation & quality Dampened by: increased crime • Better educational levels achievement • Affordability • Poor environmental of owner quality occupation • Low educational achievement • Geographic isolation

STRONG MARKET WEAK MARKET In-migration Out-migration including to elsewhere migrant workers

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3.2 DEMAND FOR HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

HOUSE PRICES Affordability, expressed as the ratio of house prices to household income, has deteriorated House prices in Hull continue to perform below sharply over the last year in Hull. Whilst house the regional average, whilst those in the East prices rose by 18.3%, household incomes rose by Riding of Yorkshire have increased proportionately only 2.9%, (source CACI Ltd). Whereas in 2004, more (see Chart 1 in Chapter 1). The chart an income of £19,837 was needed to afford the below shows how the value of the lowest priced average house price in Hull of £69,429 in 2005, houses has fallen away from national and regional an average income of £23,452 was needed to trends. afford the average house price of £82,102. Income data shows that 53% of households in Markets in the East Riding have strengthened, Hull have incomes of less than £20,000. relative to Hull over the last five years, although some levelling out has occurred in 2005. There This has serious implications for Gateway’s has been some strengthening of demand in Hull, relocation policies (see Section 6.6) and means however this is on a small scale and markets there is a premium on offering intermediate remain extremely fragile, as evidenced by tenure housing solutions, including shared intensifying patterns of vacants (see Map1, ownership and equity share, if residents being Chapter 1). affected by demolition proposals are to be helped into new homes and we are to create more Price differentials between Hull and the East quality homes and mixed communities. Riding suggest that there is some level of latent house price value in Hull which could be A recent survey in NaSA shows that 50% of harnessed through the market renewal process. residents have no savings, with a further 3% being in debt.

Chart 2: Threshold for lowest five per cent of house sales 1996 to 2005 £ 80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and The Humber

Hull England

Source: ODPM from HM Land Registry 20 1-3 Scheme Update Doc 7/4/06 4:01 pm Page 23

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DEMAND FOR SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING identifying possible “new markets”. (See Supporting Document 4.) Demand for council housing in Hull has stabilised in the last two years. Recent rises in house We will take the needs and aspirations of specific prices set against persistent low wages have population groups into account, when relocating made owner occupation much less affordable. residents who are being displaced by demolition The level of empty homes and turnover has fallen and in specifying the mix of new-build homes to since the last prospectus and the demolition meet need: programme of the late 1990s and early 2000s removed the properties with the lowest demand. Older people aged 55 plus, where local research A recent customer panel survey carried out by the mirrors national research findings that an Council (July 2005), however, demonstrates a increasing proportion of older people wish to strong aspiration for owner occupation with 88% remain living independently in their homes. A of respondents agreeing that owning your own range of options will be needed including home is a good long term investment. adaptations to properties, and support through Extra Care packages delivered into the home. Earnings levels are unlikely to change significantly with early economic transition, which is likely to Students - There are around 11,000 full time see manufacturing jobs replaced with relatively university students in Hull. The MRUK Research low paid service sector jobs so demand for social for Gateway covered students studying for A rented housing will remain above the regional Level qualifications and at degree level. It found average for some years to come. that 47% of Higher Education students lived in private rented accommodation and 51% lived in HOUSING PREFERENCES terraced housing. 42% of all students expected to stay in the Hull and East Riding area after As part of the 2004 prospectus, a method was completing their course. However, only around developed in conjunction with consultants Kwest one in ten students at Hull University or Hull and to measure housing aspirations and housing need York Medical School expected to stay or return to which enables the relative importance of factors the Hull area. Around one in ten of these said to be considered in combination with elements of improved employment opportunities would a more traditional needs survey. encourage them to stay.

This study identified that the following are the In the autumn of 2005 there were around 146 principal factors that affect choice about where single people and 97 families (326 individuals) in people live. Hull’s asylum seekers population. The vast majority of the refugee population (92%) were • Tenure from Iraq, however there were around 50 • Number of bedrooms different nationalities making up the total. Of the asylum seekers interviewed in our survey work, • Location half were in temporary housing or hostel, and • Type of home most of the rest living with friends or family. Of the refugees, nearly half lived in terrace housing, • Cost and 45% in flats. With equal proportions renting • Crime from the Council, and from private landlords. • Schools 40% of refugees wanted to stay in Hull and three quarters were working. We have used this information to help us shape Around 1,500 migrant workers have been our interventions programme, and assess the arriving in Hull each year since the freeing up of different characteristics of each area (see Section movement within the European Community, the 3.6). largest group from Poland (27%) and other Eastern European countries. 81% of those MARKET SEGMENTS surveyed had been in Hull for two years or more. Almost half found accommodation through an During 2005/06, we have also looked more agency, and there is anecdotal evidence of closely at some of the different segments that overcrowding and sub-letting by gang-masters. make up the broader housing market using Migrants workers are spread around the city consultants MRUK, particularly with a view to where there is low demand, about half living in

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terraced housing, especially in NaSA. Those CHANGING THE FUTURE interviewed had generally positive views about POLICY DRIVERS 1 - NEW MARKETS Hull and a small proportion of these might decide to make Hull their longer term home. Migrant Workers: we have found that there is a small but positive demand for housing from CONCLUSIONS ON HOUSING DEMAND migrant workers, and refugees. We need to adopt policies that: Our conclusion is that there is no overall shortage of properties, indeed there is a significant surplus • recognise the housing requirements of these but in addition the market does not match groups and ensure that their housing needs aspirations. are being satisfactorily met; • actively encourage them to remain in Hull, ensuring community cohesion policies are • Hull is popular with students and perceived operating effectively. well by migrant workers, suggesting that the right employment and housing offer could attract more of them to stay; Students: graduate retention is poor. Gateway • demand for the social rented sector has needs to support economic development policies firmed up, particularly as a result of housing which are geared towards creating job cycle changes and increasing homelessness. opportunities for graduates and we will seek to Robust and sustainable demand (at local and complement this with a targeted housing offer citywide levels) for the social rented (for example live/work accommodation) where properties which are needed, can only be this is needed. achieved in mixed community settings which provide a range/ladder of housing choices, Intermediate Tenure: despite low house prices and so provide a platform for increasing compared to regional averages, affordability in housing choice once earnings levels increase; Hull is deteriorating, as incomes are also low, • affordability is a key issue for those on low making it potentially difficult for residents to incomes; low levels of economic activity and relocate from demolition areas and limiting our high unemployment are a bigger influence on housing offer. We need to: affordability than house prices; • create shared ownership and equity share • the need to pay attention to the groups of solutions to make new housing affordable; people occupying terraced housing (e.g. asylum seekers, refugees, migrant workers, • design a ‘future proof’ product of quality. and students) particularly as intervention programmes gather pace; Private Rented Sector: we need to understand • crime and education are important better the dynamics of the sector and the way it determinants of housing choice, as well as changes in relation to different housing market having the right mix and tenure. conditions and for different groups. We also need to understand its potential future role because the sector is a major player in the failing market areas. We will commission research and develop policies to do this, and help the sector to help us with market renewal.

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3.3. HOUSING SUPPLY There are also serious quality issues in Hull’s housing stock with 58% of Council stock failing HOUSING SUPPLY AND QUALITY ISSUES the Decent Homes Standard in 2004. In NaSA, the recent stock condition survey showed that The table below shows the great contrast around 2,000 households do not live in a decent between housing supply in the two parts of our home, including nearly 80% of vulnerable strategic area. The statistics suggest that to households, compared to 43% of vulnerable exercise their housing preferences, households households citywide. In NaSA, 9.4% of the total who have access and choice are currently stock is estimated to be unfit, compared to 5% choosing to live in the East Riding rather than in citywide (including one in eight properties in the Hull. private rental sector).

2,229 low demand properties have been demolished in Hull and there have been 2,860 new-build completions since 2001. Completions at Kingswood are rising steadily, and house builders have invested in more difficult regeneration areas, such as Sculcoates and the City Centre. However, this is a drop in the ocean in correcting the imbalances of supply within the City. The Kwest survey, 2004, showed that whilst 53% of existing stock is terraced, only 32% of households prefer a terraced house, implying some 26,000 homes do not meet current preferences although realising these preferences may not be achieveable for all households due to price.

Table 1: Housing supply across the Pathfinder area, 2001

Data from 2001 census Hull National Average East Riding Pathfinder Wards

Number of household spaces 111,842 n/a 74,875 Number of households 104,288 n/a 72,539 TENURE Owner occupied 52.15% 68.86% 78.58% Shared ownership 0.47% 0.65% 0.28% Rent from Council 27.87% 13.1% 8.36% Rent from RSL 5.36% 6.05% 1.62% Privately rented 10.83% 8.72% 7.49% Other 3.79% 3.22% 3.31% HOUSE TYPE Detached 5.84% 22.51% 32.8% Semi-detached 25.81% 31.57% 39.24% Terraced 53.45% 25.84% 19.76% Flat 13.67% 18.51% 6.94% Other type 1.23% 1.57% 1.25% Council tax band A 73.16% 26.0% 22.27%

Source ONS: Census 2001

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Chart 3: The proportion of terraced homes in Hull in 2001

%

60 53.45 50

40

29.25 30 24.25 22.54 17.83 20

10

0 National Lower National Median National Mean National Upper Kingston Quartile Quartile Upon Hull Breakpoint Breakpoint

Source: Audit Commission Area Profiles (from Census 2001)

SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE THE HOUSING OFFER

The basics of supply and demand in Hull are set Whilst there is no case (on the basis of forecast out in the table below, demonstrating that household growth) for planning a high level of significant oversupply still persists. additional properties overall in the city, there is clear evidence that the current housing offer does not attract demand from specific population Table 2: The supply and groups, or arrest the out-migration of the more demand balance in Hull economically active.

1st April 2005 Hull Our research helps us understand how the housing offer needs to change. Number of households 108,000 Number of properties 115,058 Total vacant properties 7,143

Source: Hull City Council, HSSA 2005

There are signs of persisting problems in the private sector housing market, with a high level of long term vacancies in some areas, particularly the inner city collar of pre-1919 small terraces, even though the market overall is at a high point (see Map 1, Chapter 1).

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New Markets - Findings - Kingswood, The table below sets out where people in the Victoria Dock, outer areas (East Riding of survey had moved from. Yorkshire), and City Centre In the early years, we need to create a new • Working respondents were most likely to be housing offer in areas where issues around located at Kingswood, Victoria Dock or in the quality of life can also be addressed. We need to Outer Strategic area. Most tended to work ensure that the priority area plans deliver mixed close to where they live. Victoria Dock communities which are capable of attracting a residents were most likely to work elsewhere range of different households, and so redress the in the UK. sorting effect. The household range within these • House size and reputation of area were the mixed communities is likely to be relatively main reasons given by respondents for modest in the early years, due to the issues of moving to their current location. The latter income and perception and the need to relocate was a key reason given by those living in existing households. National evidence suggests Victoria Dock. Proximity to work was also that people do not like to live in areas of important to Hull city centre residents in predominantly rented housing. Therefore particular. proposals that integrate affordable and rented housing in new developments and integrate • The vast majority of respondents were affordable and owner occupied housing into satisfied with their current accommodation. predominantly rented areas should be developed. Residents within Hull city centre were most These communities will provide a kernel around likely to be dissatisfied – this is the area with which new development will grow as time goes the greatest proportion of renting tenants. on, particularly if economic change is positive, • Overall, most respondents felt that their area attracting the workers needed for the economy – had a good reputation. Only in Hull in particular to address key workers and skills city centre was there a notable number shortages. of respondents who felt that the reputation of their neighbourhood was poor. Chapter 6 sets out how we will start to deliver these changes at neighbourhood level, starting in • Around one in five of all respondents the early intervention areas of NaSA and Ings interviewed expected to move to a different which are closely aligned to the key economic home in the next five years – residents in areas (the axis of regeneration) and build on Kingswood were most likely to give this relative market strength, while addressing, response. Most expected to move to or particularly in NaSA, the worst issues of over- within suburban areas outside of Hull and the supply of poor quality housing. majority expected to buy their own home. Most would like to live in a three or four bedroom detached property. Source: MRUK 2005

Table 3: Origin and destination of movers

Previous address Total Hull City Kingswood Victoria Dock Outer strategic Centre area

Hull 61% (459) 68% (75) 78% (144) 72% (83) 46% (157) Outer strategic area 21% (159) 9% (10) 8% (15) 5% (6) 37% (128) Rest of Y&H 5% (41) 9% (11) 5% (9) 4% (5) 5% (16) Rest of UK 8% (65) 10% (12) 6% (12) 2% (2) 12% (39) Outside of UK 1% (6) 1% (1) - 3% (3) 1% (2) Don’t know or 4% (27) 3% (3) 3% (5) 14% (17) 1% (2) not stated

TOTAL 100% (757) 100% (112) 100% (185) 100% (116) 100% (344)

Source: MRUK 2005

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The improved housing offer will need to be set • housing improvement programmes, including within an overall improved neighbourhood offer energy efficiency; as the research evidence highlights. • aligning Decent Homes programmes for both the private and social rented sectors; • providing a mix of detached and semi- detached homes to attract people, providing • promoting quality design, construction and steps on the housing ladder; environment for new build and conversions. • a good area reputation is an important factor; Improving Environmental Quality: there is no • good size properties, this plus reputation were substantial funding stream to help improve our the most important considerations to people neighbourhood environments. We will therefore when they moved; need policies which will: • good facilities and environments are important in overall satisfaction – particularly • ensure our quality initiative gives equal weight the needs of families such as local shops but to the neighbourhood environment; especially schools; • use the Planning System to best effect to • good design to reduce crime and the fear of deliver good environments; crime and tackling the specific anti-social • work with other stakeholders to bend funds behaviour and crime locality issues; for environmental improvements from other • pricing is important – families may well sources; consider housing outside Hull, but be • limited pump-priming at key locations from attracted to a new development in Hull Gateway. because of price.

Strong Planning Policies: it will be necessary There may be some niche markets where specific to manage the release of land for housing across schemes could contribute to the economic the whole of the strategic area to ensure that strengthening of the area – for example high levels of completions outside of the graduates and migrant workers. Proposals must prioritised areas do not detract from the be tied to employment proposals – perhaps strengthening of markets in the intervention around entrepreneurship, which will help to retain areas. these new residents. Gateway will:

MANAGING LAND RELEASE • support this continuing policy and contribute to evaluating its effectiveness; It will be crucial that the market situation, particularly in relation to house completions and • contribute to tight control of housing empty properties is carefully monitored to enable development throughout the strategic area. the strategy to flex if conditions change. The high level of empty properties in the city CHANGING THE FUTURE means that a significant number of new POLICY DRIVERS 2 - households could theoretically be accommodated MANAGING THE SUPPLY/DEMAND by reducing the vacancy level to the target 3.5% BALANCE, AND IMPROVING HOUSING regionally. But this is unlikely to occur as the CHOICE empties are widespread, are at the bottom end of the market, or have been empty for extended Increasing Choice: policies will include: periods. Bringing them back into use on an ad • Gateway having influence on the mix of all hoc basis is not an option, and will certainly not new housing in the city; drive market re-structuring in terms of the variety and choice of housing required. Therefore we will • demolition of housing and redevelopment need to manage demolition and replacement with with mixed tenure and type of housing; the agreed outcome that the empty property • continued research into the housing market. situation gets no worse in the short term due to the market renewal programme, but recognising Dealing with Obsolescent Housing: closely that it may not improve substantially until we linked to the above, policies will include: have added all areas of market weakness, especially in the inner city collar. • demolition of obsolete housing;

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3.4 QUALITY OF LIFE • The Pathfinder could help to reduce some of the opportunities for community safety High levels of crime and the fear of crime and problems to occur by considering such issues poor educational performance have been in the design and building of new homes and identified as key drivers of housing market neighbourhoods. change in Hull. • This needs to mesh with other programmes such as DHS which can include fitting new CRIME and more secure doors and windows, and taking a Secure by Design approach to new Crime and fear of crime impact on the perception facilities and district centres. of Hull as a place to live and on the attractiveness of particular neighbourhoods. 71% of respondents ranked a low level of crime as most Recent initiatives have had an impact on specific important in what makes a good place to live, neighbourhoods. For example, in the Wellsted (Hull, General Satisfaction Survey 2003). Street area of NaSA a mobile copshop has led to Addressing levels of crime and perceptions of a reduction in complaints about disorder of 45% crime will be essential in the process of improving and to a 70% fall in the complaints about rowdy neighbourhoods and housing demand. Gateway is behaviour. Across the areas served by mobile working closely with Citysafe, the city’s crime and copshops there has been a 19% overall reduction disorder federation partnership, to ensure activity in crime over the last year, with burglaries falling in early intervention areas is prioritised by 28% and theft of motor vehicles by 51%.

Hull Citysafe (the city’s crime and disorder The charts below show significant improvement reduction partnership) were commissioned by on a number of indicators. However, the city Gateway to carry out a project to determine crime rate remains higher than comparable areas, improvements in relation to Crime and and significantly higher than the surrounding Disorder/Community Safety related to area. interventions and their effects on the housing market, particularly within the distinctive parts of Anti-social behaviour is a source of many the pathfinder intervention area where HMR neighbourhood problems. The table below sets interventions are planned. out the most common experienced problems in Hull in 2003. Key points from this research include: Table 5: Problems of anti-social • Areas of low demand housing also tend to be behaviour as perceived hot spots for crime and anti-social behaviour. by Hull residents. addressing levels and perceptions of crime and disorder in Hull will be important if Issue % People demand for housing is to be increased. reporting as a problem • Abandoned houses can be one of the biggest factors leading to crime in neighbourhoods Vandalism 50.2% including areas surrounding the empty homes. People using/dealing drugs 49.3%

Teenagers hanging around 47.7% Table 4: Recorded crime rate on the streets per 1,000 population Abandoned or burnt out cars 36.6%

Area 2003/04 2004/05 Rubbish and litter lying around 36.2%

East Riding of Yorkshire 48.5 42.2 People being drunk or rowdy 30.2% Attacked because of race 21.4% Hull 151.3 130.0 Noisy neighbours or loud parties 15.7% Yorkshire and Humber 85.0 74.6 People sleeping rough 11.7% ENGLAND 69.3 64.0 Source: Report into findings of Hull City Source: Home Office, British Crime Survey Council’s Best Value Performance Indicators General Satisfaction Survey 2003 27 1-3 Scheme Update Doc 7/4/06 4:01 pm Page 30

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Chart 4: Recorded vehicle crime per 1,000 population

50.0

45.0

40.0

35.0

30.0

25.0 per thousand 20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and The Humber

Hull England

Source: Floor targets interactive

Chart 5: Recorded robberies per 1,000 population

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5 per thousand 2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05

East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and The Humber

Hull England

Source: Floor targets interactive

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EDUCATION DEPRIVATION

Research work from Kwest demonstrated the Hull is the ninth most deprived (out of 354) local importance of educational performance in authority areas in England. Map 3 in section 3.6 influencing people’s housing preferences. The summarises the position across Hull based on the perceived quality of education has less Index of Multiple Deprivation 2004 (IMD pronounced impact than changing crime levels, 2004). but raising attainment to the national average will increase Hull’s attractiveness. High levels of deprivation mean that significant numbers of households are unable to choose their In 2005, Hull’s GCSE results improved significantly housing, are less mobile and more dependent with 44.1% of pupils achieving five or more with ‘residualisation’ being an issue. Increasing GCSE’s A*-C. The comparable figures for England levels of deprivation may initially be an effect of a and the East Riding were 56.3% and 61.2% failing market, as those with least choice are left respectively. Gateway’s work in influencing this behind. However, residualisation, leaving the will provide a good platform for the achievement poorest behind, and polarisation, separating the of significant further improvements building on poorest from the richest can lead to another non- recent success. Gateway aims to influence the virtuous circle where deprivation becomes a cause Building Schools for the Future Programme to of market failure as those with choice seek to target improvements in the early intervention leave areas they perceive as stigmatised by areas. deprivation.

Chart 6: Percentage of pupils achieving five or more GCSEs A*-C %

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04

East Riding of Yorkshire Yorkshire and Humber

Hull England

Source: Floor targets interactive

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Housing interventions alone will obviously not 3.5 ECONOMY AND POPULATION address the underlying causes of deprivation. Rather a range of measures will be required to POPULATION deal with the problems and achieve a sustainable solution. This will be worked through by the The population of Hull declined by 5.6% between Local Strategic Partnership (LSP) in the 1994 and 2004. Direct migration from Hull to the developing Local Neighbourhood Renewal East Riding is one of the key factors in explaining Strategy (NRS) with a view to targeting the change in population (the East Riding had resources, including Neighbourhood Renewal one of the most rapid increases over the same Fund to reinforce our housing market intervention period). The population of the Travel to Work areas. Area (TTWA) has remained fairly constant between 1991 and 2001, falling by around 1.8% over the period. CHANGING THE FUTURE POLICY DRIVERS 3- Many young adults who leave the city migrate out QUALITY OF LIFE of the sub-region altogether, and population and household growth in the East Riding results from We will therefore adopt policies which: high levels of in-migration from areas outside the sub-region as well as Hull. Families leaving the • Ensure that for each neighbourhood where city are more likely to go only as far as the East we work there is a coherent strategy for Riding. ensuring sustainability through joint work with the LSP on NRS. Recently, population loss from the city has slowed • Pay particular attention to designing out crime and 2004 saw a net increase of around 600 (for example through our quality initiative) people – the first yearly increase since 1994. and we will work with Citysafe, to target However, the long term trend remains downwards specific actions both at city and at (see Chart 7). neighbourhood level. • Ensure alignment of Gateway and education programmes to maximise impact of new and refurbished schools in the intervention areas.

Chart 7: Mid-year estimates of population - City of Hull - 1981 to 2004

280,000

275,000

270,000

265,000

260,000

255,000

250,000

245,000

240,000

235,000 1992 1995 1998 1999 2002 2003 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1993 1994 1996 1997 2000 2001 2004 1991

Source: ONS 30 1-3 Scheme Update Doc 7/4/06 4:01 pm Page 33

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The recent slowing down of out-migration from THE ECONOMY the city is correlated with the increasing differential in house prices between Hull and the The forecasts of population above are trend outer strategic area. based forecasts, and do not take account of the effects of policy interventions which are aimed at Analysis of travel to work patterns from the 2001 changing trends. census data suggests that out-migration from Hull has been accompanied by a small shift in work In the original prospectus, our policies were patterns. The Travel to Work Area (TTWA) based on work undertaken by Experian Ltd in appears to have become a rather more self- 2004 which showed that, without policy contained labour market area over the period intervention, and based on national economic 1991-2001, with the core city and outer area forecasting, population of the whole strategic area each separately becoming more self-contained. would fall slightly over 15 years but there would The proportion of the TTWA’s resident workers be a continuing significant reduction in population that commuted from the Outer TTWA into Hull in the city with some household growth in the rose by only 0.1% while the proportion living and outer TTWA. working in the Outer TTWA rose by 3.6% and the proportion commuting from Hull to the Outer Since 2004 we have further analysed the position. TTWA fell by 0.7%. Volterra Consulting Ltd have used a ’bottom-up’ methodology which compares the local economy Whilst employment located anywhere in the against similar areas, considers recent trends and TTWA is of course potentially available to all develops projections of future employment for residents, this suggests that population drift has Hull based on our actual economic and eroded the city’s role as an employment centre a employment structure to understand how the little. Continued out-migration of those in national model used by Experian might work employment may therefore be undermining locally. Their findings are at Supporting attempts to build a more successful economy in Document 5. the city, if jobs are starting to follow the workers.

Chart 8: 2003 based population projections

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Hull East Riding of Yorkshire

Source: ONS

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From this work we have concluded that the The need to restructure to develop new economic prospects for the Humber sub-region knowledge based industries is generally and specifically for the Hull and East Riding area acknowledged. Education and skills levels lag show a brighter picture than that presented in the behind national figures. It will take time to Experian economic forecasts from 2004. There is achieve this restructuring and so the economic evidence of a recent growth in jobs, and that strategy proposes a dual approach – creating jobs local industry performed better than the forecasts based on the current skills levels, whilst planning suggested. However, having reviewed the local for higher level skills and the knowledge based employment base, Volterra concluded that industries that will need them in the medium although manufacturing is performing better than term. in other areas, there is a recognisable structural weakness in the local economy, with an over- representation of sectors which have the propensity to lose jobs, and under-representation of those which generate employment growth – particularly in the knowledge driven sectors.

There is evidence that many people living in the sub-region do not see Hull as their sub-regional centre but rather choose to spend in other locations e.g. York, Leeds, or Meadowhall. It is estimated that some 45% of retail spend is lost to the city in this way. This, added to the changes in travel to work patterns noted above, highlights the need for action to reinforce the city’s role as a sub-regional centre for employment, retail, services and leisure.

Chart 9: Alternative employment - trajectories for Hull

120,000

110,000

100,000

90,000

80,000 Full time equivalent jobs

70,000

60,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bronze Silver Gold hybrid L/T change

medium term trend S/T change Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Source: Hull City Council, derived from various employment projections (see Supporting Document 6)

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TRANSPORT Work for the development of the Regional Spatial Strategy has taken a similar approach, with little Whilst the first prospectus identified transport as economic change anticipated in the early years. being a rather weak driver of housing market Working with planners from the two local change, it is clear that Hull’s relative geographic authorities and the Regional Assembly, we have isolation is an important factor in business agreed an approach to the allocation of housing location, employment and housing choice. There numbers in three five year periods, showing are capacity constraints on the main motorway increased activity in the latter two five year link, the M62 and bottlenecks inhibiting the periods to reflect the time it will take for efficient functioning of the road system along the economic change to have an impact on the main through route to the docks, the A63, housing market. The RSS assumes an earlier particularly at Castle Street in the city centre, positive impact of economic policy than we have, together with potentially restrictive tolls on the but both are subject to review for later periods. Humber Bridge. There are also constraints on the A common approach to monitoring will be agreed. single rail line to the docks which inhibits port development. The issues of the A63 and the rail Economic improvement will not lead to housing line are prioritised within Hull’s Local Transport market change in Hull without significant Plan, 2006 -11, and within the Yorkshire and improvement in housing supply and quality of life Humber Assembly’s Regional Spatial Strategy factors – in fact without these improvements our priorities which support the development of the research suggests that out-migration from the city city centre and port as key economic drivers. The would increase as housing outside the city A63 Castle Street has been recommended by the becomes more affordable to those in work. Regional Transport Board for inclusion in the Highway’s Agency’s target programme of CHANGING THE FUTURE improvements. POLICY DRIVERS 4- ECONOMY AND POPULATION These strategic transport projects are vital for the economic regeneration of Gateway’s strategic Economic Transition and Unemployment: area, and hence to the success of housing market We will: renewal. However they are very long term and will have minimal housing market impact unless • work with other stakeholders to develop the structural and skills issues are addressed to and implement a suitable economic strategy improve local employment prospects as well. through the CRDP by September 2006; • set and monitor economic milestones so as to CONCLUSIONS ON ECONOMIC be able to refine our housing plans TRAJECTORIES, AND HOUSEHOLD AND accordingly; HOUSING FORECASTS • develop a housing offer for Hull which is There is a wide spread of economic trajectories appropriate to its economic future. which could impact upon population. (See Chart 9 and Supporting Document 6) Geographic Isolation: this can be reduced by improving connectivity to the rest of the region, For housing market renewal, we have concluded the UK, and to Northern Europe. We will: that it is sensible to plan on the basis of the baseline economic scenario, in line with past • support improvements in transport trends, whilst developing the ability to respond to infrastructure for Hull, such as tackling A63 higher levels of economic growth and a different Castle Street and freight rail link occupational make-up once economic improvements. improvement becomes more embedded. This is the highlighted trend shown in chart 9, and Monitor and Manage: we will: relates to the ONS household projections shown in Chart 8. Key milestones in economic progress • monitor trends and be prepared to adjust have been identified which would trigger a plans accordingly; different approach. These are set out in Supporting Document 7. Based on this analysis • develop mixed communities which will provide we anticipate Hull’s population will be 226,300 in a platform for sustainability and growth if the 2017, giving an average 0.62% annual reduction, longer term transport and economic projects but this will be subject to regular monitoring as are successful. outlined.

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3.6 HOUSING MARKET GEOGRAPHY INDEX OF MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION

Housing market drivers do not operate uniformly Map 3 shows the highest levels of deprivation are across Hull, but assume different weights in in Orchard Park, North Bransholme, Preston Road, different places. Newington and St Andrew’s, Newbridge Rd area, and the Eastern Estates. The pattern closely VACANT PROPERTIES mirrors that of empty homes in Map 1.

The map of empty properties shows some distinct groupings (see Map 1, Chapter 1). Firstly, the inner city collar of small Victorian and Edwardian terraced housing encircling the city centre is distinctive and leads directly to prioritisation of these areas for intervention.

The second rather smaller grouping is at Orchard Park, North Bransholme and Ings-council stock that has been empty for several years whilst consultation takes place with communities on masterplanning in their neighbourhoods.

Map 3: Index of Multiple Deprivation in Hull 2004

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HOUSE PRICES NEIGHBOURHOOD SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT Map 4 shows house price variations across neighbourhoods in Hull as at 2004 – 05. Again, We have commissioned DTZ Pieda to undertake the lowest prices occur in the areas of highest an assessment of neighbourhood sustainability. deprivation. Whilst house prices have risen on This identifies six domains: housing, crime, average by 75% since 2001 – 02, the differential physical environment, health, education and has been unequally distributed across the city, as economic well-being. The results are at shown in Map 5. Census small area analysis Supporting Document 8. Map 6 shows rankings shows not just the poorly performing areas, but for the housing domain which includes house also the areas which have some latent value prices, empty homes, tenure and turnover. which might be tapped into once regeneration gets under way. Ings is such an example, where This assessment will be regularly reviewed both not only have prices risen more slowly than the to measure the impact of our activities with city average over the last four years, but there partners and to monitor external environmental are marked absolute differentials from high priced factors. neighbouring areas. CONCLUSIONS ON AREAS OF HOUSING MARKET WEAKNESS

Our housing market review has identified a number of neighbourhoods which exhibit signs of market weakness. These areas have different combinations of multiple deprivation, high levels of vacancy and low house prices. The most obviously weak areas are NaSA and Sculcoates and to a lesser extent Newbridge Road in the inner city collar, and Preston Road, North Bransholme and Orchard Park from the predominantly social rented estates. The data

Map 4: House prices in Hull, 2005

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Map 5: House price changes in Hull, 2000/2001 - 2004/2005

Map 6: Rank of all neighbourhoods, in Hull housing domain

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also gives some indication of market potential, 3.8 CONCLUSIONS with Ings in particular underperforming compared to near neighbours due to specific problems. Although one or two indicators of housing market weakness have improved slightly since the 2004 We will not tackle each of these very weak areas prospectus, overall, the market in our area immediately as we need to take other things into remains critically weak. It is clear from this account, including preparedness of the analysis what we have to do to transform Hull’s community, impact, opportunity to engage the housing markets. We will address the “sorting” private sector, potential for market impact, effect by creating mixed and sustainable deliverability and synergy with other programmes. communities, starting in NaSA and, to a lesser extent at Ings, with a quality housing offer that 3.7 MANAGING UNCERTAINTY will retain existing residents and attract new residents from diverse backgrounds. The housing Forecasting Hull’s economic, population and offer will be geared to the changing needs of the household level trajectories is difficult. We will workforce as Hull’s economy develops, including a therefore: relatively high level of affordable owner occupier housing in the early years. With partners, we will • use the best available information for planning focus our interventions to deal holistically with purposes; neighbourhoods, and build a decent environment. • develop a flexible plan which can be adapted to respond to changing circumstances; • monitor the key indicators of economic change and of housing and other market sector; • adjust our plans accordingly.

We are developing a number of tools to help us do this, including:

• outcome measures which will help us assess progress towards strategic outcomes, (see Section 5.4); • output performance measures against targets (see Section 8.3); • an interactive Business Planning tool which allows us to model programme variants whilst assessing their contribution to our strategic objectives and outputs for particular funding patterns and levels, (see Supporting Document 9); • continuously monitoring the key housing market indicators, commissioning further specific research as necessary, and producing an annual housing market intelligence update report; • a dwelling stock budget to record and model vacancy rates in the city for different programme variants, taking account of housing planning permissions, (see Supporting Document 2); • economic milestones to monitor our economic trajectory, and its implications for population and household levels (see section 4.3).

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This Chapter describes Hull’s Spatial a significant level of physical re-modelling due to Strategy which is under development. the combination of investment programmes being delivered across the city. In the early years, much Gateway has led this work which will create of this investment will be from the public sector, a spatial framework within which all of the with £650m in the pipeline over the next four regeneration investment for Hull, including years to provide new facilities and pump priming. Gateway’s, will fit. Investment from the private sector over the same period is currently estimated at £1,550m. Our 4.1 THE SPATIAL STRATEGY: objective is to target and prioritise the investment WHAT IS IT FOR? in such a way that it levers in private sector, market-led regeneration. In the long term we Hull’s new Community Strategy (see Section 2.3) must aim for the city to become genuinely self- sets clear priorities for the city over the next five sustaining, without needing continuing large scale years within the context of the 15 year vision. public sector investment to underpin its Implementation plans are under development. development. One aspect of the implementation plan is the spatial strategy which shows what will happen The spatial strategy is by definition concerned where in terms of the physical infrastructure with the physical infrastructure of the city. changes (see figure 2). Focusing on this aspect does not mean that investment in the people issues is not equally The spatial strategy will inform the development important. But the physical changes that we are of the city’s Core Strategy under the Local about to see will provide a new framework for the Development Framework (LDF). With sign-up city and its communities to develop within. This from all key partners, this spatial strategy will work needs to produce a city which is facilitative drive the investment plans of all agencies. Hull and flexible; at the same time the plans must be has a once in a generation opportunity to achieve practical and capable of implementation.

Figure 2: The spatial strategy framework

Community Implementation Strategy Plans

RES City Region Strategic RSS Spatial Strategy Development Programme RHS

Citywide Local Development Joint Investment Framework Plan

Delivery BSF Hull Citybuild LIFT Pathfinder Transport Decent Homes

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Map 7: Hull spatial strategy draft concept plan

4.2 THE CONCEPT PLAN impact and therefore highest priority to be given to the city centre and the eastern docks area. The concept plan has been produced by a group More work is needed to confirm exactly how of lead stakeholders in the physical much land is needed to ensure the contribution of redevelopment of the city. It is intended to the docks to economic regeneration can be provide an initial framework to assist in the maximised. development of a joint investment planning process and actual plans to deliver a re-modelled Other key drivers are the University, with further city. When finalised it will be adopted by the Local contributions from the Western Gateway (key Strategic Partnership within the Implementation approach to the city) and new employment Plan for the Community Strategy. The plan has development to the north of the city. been built up through a number of ‘layers’ which provide physical shape to the Community The inner core, an area surrounding the city Strategy’s priorities. The current draft is shown centre, is under-performing against its potential as, Map 7. to drive economic change and improvement. A long term aim is to regenerate this area to Gateway has jointly commissioned a review of the provide more high value mixed uses grading out spatial strategy with Hull’s planning service from from the city centre but including key employers Arups. They have produced a report on the initial such as the Hull Royal Infirmary and the Kingston spatial strategy concepts and an action plan to Communications Stadium. take it forward is at supporting document 10. Recommendations include setting out and TRANSPORT, GREEN LUNGS AND developing the evidence base and providing an WATERFRONT STRATEGY explanatory text, both of which will help refine it, align it better with the requirements of the Local The skeleton of the city must be reinforced by the Development Framework, and be more useful for delineation and improvement of key transport key stakeholders. links particularly the main arterial and cross city routes. Travel into and within the city’s districts EMPLOYMENT ZONES must be prioritised over more local considerations. These routes can then be used to We need to prioritise safeguarding the land develop more rapid bus connections and required to provide the jobs we need. The main safeguarded for any future rapid transport location for economic activity will continue to be system. along the Humber waterfront with the biggest

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There are key constraints to movement which A major new proposal therefore is that the city must be addressed e.g Castle Street and the will be re-modelled around a smaller number of cross city freight rail link, and these are prioritised district centres – perhaps around ten – which will through the City Region Development Programme be central to the development of communities. and are now accepted as regional priorities. This number is based on population, an assessment of retail capacity, and on the views of The development of a green network strategy is major service providers especially health and proposed linking our Victorian parks and customer services. Nathaniel Lichfield and maximising the use of the River Hull corridor and Partners have reviewed the current pattern of waterfront. These corridors would be used for district and local centres against this aspiration. walking and cycling along safe and pleasant They conclude that this approach is realistic and routes. This thinking requires more development that different models based on the distribution of to secure implementation. current facilities and the current mix of public and private facilities may be needed. Maximising the use of the waterfront is another linked concept, including the commercial re- We have adopted the term ‘district centre’ (it vitalisation of the River Humber frontage and does not equate exactly with the current local developing higher value uses along the River Hull plan definition of a district centre) because these Corridor. The possible impoundment of the River centres will provide the driver for the Hull, which is subject to a current feasibility study, regeneration of specific localities, which may be could drive this new approach. groups of neighbourhoods. The overall aim is to ensure that the development of these district DISTRICT CENTRES centres maximises alignment and synergy, including where possible the new community The city’s residential areas currently lack a clear secondary schools. Each neighbourhood will need sense of coherence; it is often difficult to tell excellent links to the new centres. The types of where one district starts and another ends. There facility to be provided in a district centre will vary are a significant number of small to medium sized with local circumstances but could include: shopping centres and parades which do not always provide strong community focus and the • Good quality retail offer shops often do not coincide with important public • Health/Adult services facilities. Many of these neighbourhood centres • Customer service centres are of poor quality because there are too many • Police facilities for current shopping patterns and there is • Public transport interchange insufficient spending power to support all of • Education/library (including the new them. Over half of respondents to a recent survey schools/community facilities under BSF) said that the quality of shops and local facilities • Access to advice/jobs was very important to them when deciding where • Links to green network to live (Hull District and Local Centres Study, • Access to leisure Interim Report, February 2006, see supporting document 11).

The Freedom Centre, Preston Road, part of a Newland Avenue, a thriving retail centre close to new district centre Hull University

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4.3 JOINT INVESTMENT PLANNING

The spatial strategy will drive the city’s Local Development Framework and underpin regeneration investment in Hull over the coming years. As a first step in achieving this, we have catalogued most of the existing investment programmes in relation to the spatial strategy. There is already a good fit between the spatial strategy, existing investment plans and Gateway’s own proposals. In the future, we will tie these elements together even more firmly to ensure we maximise our regeneration opportunities and impact. Mount Pleasant Retail Park, part of the Holderness Road district centre CITY CENTRE MASTERPLAN

MIXED COMMUNITIES Following a successful bid for an Urban Regeneration Company (URC) for Hull in 2002, Around the district centres, we will aim to provide Hull Citybuild was set up by its partners, Hull City a range of good quality housing and Council and Yorkshire Forward, to create and environments to provide variety and choice. This deliver a dynamic and coherent physical will enable a good mix of facilities to be regeneration strategy, focusing on the city centre supported. These neighbourhoods will provide and West Hull. The City Centre Masterplan, has the range of ‘offer’ in terms of housing choice created a vision for the role of the city centre in (price, tenure and mix), schools, and environment driving the city’s fortunes, and building investor that will attract people to live in Hull from all confidence. sectors of the community, including those who currently seek to locate in the East Riding. Five Strategic Development Areas will provide a mix of office, leisure, retail and residential RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EAST RIDING development to transform the city centre over the next ten years, in addition to the St Stephen’s In developing our spatial strategy, we are also retail and leisure development already underway concerned to make effective links to the next to Paragon Station. infrastructure and developments in the East Riding. Regeneration of Hull will also bring There is potential for some 3,000 new city living significant benefits to the East Riding apartments to be created over the next 10 years communities in terms of job opportunities, in the city centre. These will complement upgraded retail and leisure facilities. In particular, Gateway’s proposals to enhance the housing offer we must ensure that there is a proper functional in Hull, catering particularly for the younger relationship between the outer suburbs of Hull professional segment of the market. However, and the adjacent parts of the East Riding. There the developments will need careful phasing in is a mutual interdependency between these relation to other planned housing schemes in areas, and development in one should not be to order to maintain a sensible supply/demand the detriment of the other. These linkages will be balance. explored further as the spatial strategy develops.

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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT • Economic activity As recognised in the Yorkshire and Humber • Occupational profile response to proposed Regional Funding Allocations, housing and the economy are closely • Average wages interrelated. Housing is a key sector of economic activity and is critical to creating sustainable These indicators will be measured on an annual communities with good quality of life. Housing basis, however since many are survey based and investment creates employment and contract therefore subject to volatility it is proposed to opportunities locally. Support for local businesses, review performance every three to five years social enterprises and people to access these against the three main scenarios of growth, opportunities is important. Section 6.7 sets out stability and decline. More detail is provided in details of local initiatives on construction skills. Supporting Document 7. These will be monitored by Gateway with our partners. Affordable, attractive and integrated housing creates neighbourhoods where people want to TRANSPORT live and businesses want to invest. This in turn enhances the skills, capacities, jobs and The proximity of housing to good public transport investment that will assist economic opportunities links is important both to reduce congestion and across the region. At the same time, a strong to provide accessibility and travel options that are economy can raise income levels, allowing people vital to sustainable communities. Key linkages to improve their housing, foster sustainable include: communities, and stimulate balanced and stable • the need for integrated co-ordinated housing markets. With this in mind, it is vital that investment with clear locational priorities to economic growth supports a healthy housing create sustainable communities; market and vice versa. • delivering sustainable new housing This is reflected in the close alignment of development close to amenities, services and Regional Housing Strategy policies and public transport, with a view to realising investment with Regional Spatial Strategy, the potential for employment opportunities close Regional Economic Strategy and the Northern by; Way, so that investment is sustainable and takes • transforming those neighbourhoods that have account of economic objectives, as well as good potential to be attractive locations in the housing market trends. future and provide good access to public transport; There are a number of projects which will • giving priority to sites that are well serviced underpin economic regeneration in the City by established public transport routes. Region. These recognise the need to have in place mechanisms for economic transition and economic transformation. Key areas include the Proposals included in the Local Transport Plan city centre, port development, including logistics, 2006-2011 build upon the completion of the and the development of a long term strategy to Paragon bus/rail interchange in 2007 as part of maximise the potential of the River Hull Corridor. the St Stephen’s development, and include two new park and ride schemes, short term The Northern Way is to fund two worklessness improvements to Castle Street to reduce pilots in the region - one in Bradford and one in severance and improvements to rail freight access Hull. The projects will focus on helping Incapacity to the port. Longer term, beyond 2011, Benefit claimants into employment (see section proposals are under preparation for the A63 6.8.). Castle Street ‘cut and cover’ scheme which now has priority support from the Regional Transport A set of milestones and indicators for economic Board, an additional river crossing and change, to assist with monitoring and managing impounding of the River Hull, which would the housing market renewal strategy, is being address east/west severance issues. developed and include: Local projects will also improve transport in • Total employment particular neighbourhoods and enhance the market renewal effects of our housing • Sectoral composition developments. • Business registrations

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EDUCATION

Education, particularly at secondary level, is identified as being one of the key drivers of the housing market, particularly for households with families that are currently tending to migrate to the East Riding. Revamping Hull’s education offer is therefore vital to attract these households, as well as provide the education and skills needed for our economic future.

The Building Schools for the Future (BSF) and Transforming Our Primary Schools (TOPs) programmes are crucial. Gateway has been recognised as a key stakeholder for BSF, and has Craven Park Primary School been consulted on the overall pattern of secondary schools and the proposals which team on options for locating and phasing these impact on its priority neighbourhoods. schools to maximise the overall benefits. Options to locate new schools at Preston Road and in Building Schools for the Future (BSF) is a NaSA are supported by Gateway. government funded project to renew or rebuild secondary schools which will lift educational Transforming our Primary Schools (TOPS) is a attainment to at least norm levels. The programme designed to reduce surplus capacity government has allocated around £218m and bring the pattern of schools closer to the investment to Hull. Consultation on initial changing pattern of population. It includes proposals has taken place and a Business Case is modernisation and better use of available now under development for submission to resources in order to secure better educational government. The education vision for Hull attainment. The programme is now being identifies that secondary schools should be at the implemented. This includes proposals to provide heart of the communities they serve. a new school at Maybury Road, adjacent to Preston Road and to rationalise the number of schools while improving quality in NaSA and Ings.

Hull College and the University of Hull have their own investment programmes which can:

• attract students to Hull who then require housing; • retain former students as potentially better off long term residents; and • improve the economic impact of skills.

In spatial terms, there is a major interaction with the inclusion of the University area in Gateway’s plans, and we are taking the student and Malet Lambert Secondary School graduate housing sector fully into account in developing our proposals (see Section 3.2). The Gateway supports the development of secondary newly extended Business School is of particular schools in or close to the District Centres value in creating and sustaining future wherever possible. Obviously some current employment and the University residential area. school locations do not permit this, but where schools are to be relocated, we believe that the principle of proximity to District Centres should be pursued if at all practicable. Five new schools are proposed under the BSF proposals. Three of them have an impact on Gateway’s priority (see section 6.7). Gateway is working with the BSF

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HEALTH Following involvement with Gateway and other partners in developing the spatial strategy, the The Hull and East Riding of Yorkshire Hospital location of these facilities as outlined in the Trust is one of Hull’s biggest employers, and its Primary Care Trusts’ draft Strategic Service development plans have a significant economic Development Plan 2006 have a strong and regenerative effect in Hull. relationship to the district centres and to Gateway’s priority regeneration areas, particularly The local health and social care partners in Hull the Newington Health Care Centre on Anlaby have established a public/private partnership Road (NaSA) and the Marfleet Primary Health (LIFT, locally known as Citycare) which has Care Centre (Preston Rd). secured Government backing for making radical improvements in the local, primary and COMMUNITIES AND NEIGHBOURHOODS community care provision. Primary health care centres will include routine services provided by A new network of City Council Customer Service GPs, practice nurses, therapists, counsellors and Centres (CSC) is being created around the city. other primary health care staff. They may contain CSCs will provide a one stop shop for a wide community pharmacy, dentistry, and ophthalmic range of Council services, including housing, services or be linked to closely-located facilities. social services, and payments. Many of the They will form a network to provide services for a locations have a good fit with the proposed defined geographical area, with some larger district centres and the Council is supporting the ‘integrated care centres’ which will house the Gateway priority neighbourhoods with full services multi-agency facilities needed for the wider and available at Preston Road and Ings, and a centre extended range health and social care services to planned for Orchard Park. be provided in the community. The Local Police Team are completing a The LIFT programme has been designed explicitly programme to their network of facilities, including to make a significant contribution to the the creation of six new police stations. Although regeneration of the city wherever possible and this programme was planned some time ago, practicable with: there is a good relationship with the District Centres, and local police team areas are co- • the promotion of new local employment terminus with the city’s Area Committees used for opportunities; neighbourhood management. • facilities to be made available to community Hull City Council is bringing neighbourhood and voluntary groups; management to each local area. Area • local facility design to respond to community Committees and Area Partnerships will have wishes. enhanced roles, and all the Council’s front line services will migrate to the new structures in 2006/07. Already, seven pilot projects are gathering pace, three of which, NaSA, Ings and Preston Road, are in Gateway early intervention areas with stabilisation in the future areas at Orchard Park and North Bransholme supported also by a pilot scheme.

Hull has piloted an approach to community wardens that has been recognised as best practice nationally. Originally brought forward by Goodwin Development Trust, for one area of the city (Thornton), negotiations are currently underway to provide a Community Warden presence in every ward across the city.

Newington Health Care Centre, Delivered by Hull’s NHS LIFT Company, Hull Citycare

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The objectives cover three areas: THE RESPECT AGENDA

• crime prevention and reducing the fear of Gateway is keen to respond positively to the new crime; respect agenda, a protocol for which will be built into our funding agreement for 2006-2008. • promoting community spirit; In Hull, a number of policies are already in place • improving the environment. to tackle this agenda and the national Respect Task Force has identified the city as a priority to take forward early work building on existing These new arrangements will see wardens projects, including community wardens, as a working as part of the new Neighbourhood national pilot. This is at an early stage but the Management teams along with Street Scene and Citysafe partnership and Hull City Council propose Community Safety to deliver local services based to use this opportunity to link together a number on local need. The effective delivery of of strands of work that affect Gateway’s priority neighbourhood management is key to the city’s neighbourhoods at NaSA in particular and in East development and this frontline service will play a Hull. The services and agencies involved are: key role in tackling crime across the board and supporting the regeneration of those areas that • Police Gateway has identified as priorities over the next five years. The Community Wardens will also be • Citysafe key to sustaining those areas which will not be • Childrens’ Services subject to regeneration or investment in the medium to long term by contributing to the • Neighbourhood services improvement of quality of life for residents and • Housing management tackling the community’s issues with regard to • Private housing services crime and the fear of crime. • Voluntary sector

The pilot may include:

• support for particularly difficult and vulnerable households who are moving as a result of Gateway’s rehousing plans; • interagency intervention and support for the most problematic families in these neighbourhoods; • and possibly, specific action on drugs.

DECENT HOMES

Hull City Council has agreed to retain ownership of its housing stock, with the possibility of transfers in particular neighbourhoods where there is community support, the only current example being North Bransholme which is one of Gateway’s intervention areas. Here Gateway is working with Hull City Council and the community to achieve a mutually agreed regeneration plan.

The Council will meet the Government’s Decent Homes Standard target by 2010. The draft DHS asset management plan (November 2005) provides for early intervention in Gateway’s priority areas on homes not affected by demolition proposals in the next four years, in order to maximise the benefit of this improvement investment for tenants, pending

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possible decisions on demolition after 2010. The Since November, there has been extensive and prioritisation summarised below does not preclude intensive consultation on the Decent Homes asset management led decisions on small scale Standard proposals with a wide range of demolition of difficult to let stock where the cost stakeholders including Gateway’s Priority Area of improvement is not economic and demolition Partnership Boards and the principles set out enhances the general environment of an area. above have broadly been supported. The Council DHS programme will be finalised as part of the DECENT HOMES STANDARD PROGRAMME annual fiscal review the Council is required to PRIORITIES complete in July 2006. This was Government Office for Yorkshire and the Humber’s condition Priority Investment Criteria as part of its approval of the HCC stock options 1 Early investment within Pathfinder decision to retain the stock. priority areas to indicate commitment to area regeneration to complement For private sector properties, the Council has a demolition and redevelopment programme of improvement works targeted at programmes achieving DHS for 70% of vulnerable households by 2010. The City Council will prioritise and 2 Early investment in properties within coordinate this programme with Gateway’s Pathfinder priority areas that have interventions programme. Details of match been earmarked for possible funding are included in section 6.8. demolition and replacement post 2010 to maximise the benefits of CONSTRUCTION SKILLS improvement investment for tenants 3 Completion of estates which were Although the construction sector currently prioritised for investment in the employs around 7,000 people in Hull, the 2005/6 work programme for the main estimated workforce demand for the next 5-6 kitchen and bathroom contracts years, at least, is for some 9,000 people, taking account of the major investment programmes in 4 Completion of a 2nd multi-storey the public sector (DHS, BSF, Gateway, Citybuild block in 2006/07. etc) and known private sector requirements. 5 Properties with the highest rate of DHS elemental failures i.e. ‘worst This challenge is to be addressed by major first’. projects which are supported by Gateway.

There are a number of key benefits to this Pathways to Construction is, primarily, a approach. Within the priority neighbourhoods up- capital project following a ‘hub and spoke’ model. front DHS investment, in tandem with The ‘hub’ will be located in the city centre and neighbourhood planning, will give clear signs to adjacent to the existing Hull College which has residents of the long term commitment to helping excellence in construction status. It will serve the to limit further decline in an area identified as whole of the city as a focus for the development being at high risk of market failure. Identifying of higher level construction skills, engagement of the poorest properties for early investment schools, a step change improvement in maximises the benefit to tenants of having DHS recruitment to construction skills at all levels and improvements to their homes. For example, if as a focus for employer engagement in the skills new heating systems are installed in 2005/06 to agenda. The first of the two ‘spokes’ will be properties facing demolition post 2010/2011, then formed by a skills centre in the early intervention tenants will get 8 to 10 years benefit from an Preston Road area co-located with the existing efficient and cheaper to run heating system. Neighbourhood Development Company East Hull Decisions to invest will be taken on a cost benefit Centre for Horticulture. The second ‘spoke’ is to basis with a target spending limit of £7,500 per be formed by the Construction Enterprise Centre property. Targeting DHS improvements, such as – a construction business incubator facility near new central heating and double glazing, at the the city centre, offering high quality business worst properties will also have maximum impact space for training in business management skills of reducing fuel poverty for tenants within the for new entrepreneurs, business support services Council stock in accordance with the Affordable and exhibition space highlighting developments in Warmth Strategy that the Council has recently the industry. launched with other partners.

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4.4 CONCLUSION

This is a once in a generation opportunity to transform Hull as the core of the City Region.

Joint Investment Planning initially led by Gateway is now an accepted principle within Hull and by its investment stakeholders. We are all working on the processes which will embed this principle and make it an established reality. For its part, Gateway will ensure that through each stage of its strategy and programme development the investment plans of other stakeholders are fully taken into account. We have built up good working relationships with other stakeholders which makes us confident that we can do this effectively.

Hull’s Humber waterfront

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CHAPTER 5: VISION, OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITIES

Gateway has reinvigorated its vision using 5.1 THE VISION the updated housing market diagnosis, and articulated a set of strategic and Starting from the vision statement of our first complementary objectives which will direct prospectus, we have reformulated it in a clearer, our intervention programme. more succinct style.

We have identified strategic outcomes Our vision is for the Hull housing market area to which are each capable of being measured. be a place where people choose to live, a place of We explain how we have used these prosperous, diverse and sustainable communities objectives to determine our priorities, and vibrant neighbourhoods, providing an which are set out at the end of this chapter. enviable quality of life for all.

The diagram below shows how these components The Board has also agreed a Mission Statement all link together. which articulates clearly Gateway’s contribution.

Our mission is to transform the housing markets of Hull, creating places of real distinction, where diverse people choose to live, learn, work, visit and invest.

Figure 3: From vision to delivery

VISION MISSION STATEMENT

CORE OBJECTIVES HULL SPATIAL STRATEGY Complementary Objectives

GATEWAY STRATEGY OPTIONS • Policy on Household Numbers APPRAISAL • Spatial Distribution of CRITERIA Interventions • Phasing • Thematic Interventions • Resources

HIGH LEVEL OPTIONS INTERVENTION PROGRAMME

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5.2 STRATEGIC CORE OBJECTIVES 5.3 COMPLEMENTARY OBJECTIVES

We have rewritten our strategic objectives, Hull’s Community Strategy, discussed in Section starting from our housing market diagnosis and 2.3 above, includes a comprehensive set of distilling out the essential things which must be objectives which are an important determinant for achieved if we are to deliver our vision. Gateway’s own more detailed Strategic Core Objectives. It also includes the overarching principle of sustainable development which must STRATEGIC CORE OBJECTIVES guide our activity:

1. To improve the housing offer in Hull, meeting ‘Only by understanding all the impacts of our the aspirations of the workforce needed to actions can we ensure that they are truly improve its economic performance. sustainable, and meet the needs of the present 2. Reduce the level of low demand, low value and without compromising the ability of the future to vacant properties in Hull, achieving an meet its own needs’. appropriate balance of supply and demand across the city. With this in mind, we will commission a preliminary sustainability appraisal of this Scheme 3. To achieve a radical improvement in the Update and emerging spatial strategy in order to character and diversity of the inner city collar inform how we can best develop our plans in the area of mainly pre 1919 private housing, helping most sustainable way. to secure a more sustainable pattern of neighbourhoods. The Logical Strategic Partnership has set out 4. To intervene where necessary to achieve mixed some stretch targets for the key areas it must sustainable communities in areas of action over the next five years. Detailed action predominantly social rented housing. plans for each of these are currently under development. They are critical to Gateway’s 5. To support communities and individuals success. affected by change through the market renewal process, paying attention to the requirements of current and future residents. 6. To improve the quality and design of housing across all tenures, making neighbourhoods fit for 21st Century living.

In identifying the strategic priorities, the Gateway Board has identified the following implementation principles:

IMPLEMENTATION PRINCIPLES

• To support the principles of the emerging spatial strategy for the City of Hull. • To develop clear plans linked to housing market and economic regeneration, including maximising opportunities for local employment. • To continue to contribute to the development of joint investment plans and key funding streams. • To continue to embrace community consultation and engagement in developing plans focusing on Area Partnership Boards Humber Quays, new office accommodation on and wider engagement. the Humber waterfront.

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Table 6: Complementary outcomes and targets

Baseline 2011 Target Projected national position 2011

Jobs and Prosperity 1.1 To increase the employment rate 68.6% (2004/05) 75.2% 75.2% of the working age population 1.2 To increase the number of VAT 23.5 (2003) 41.6 46.0 registrations per 10,000 population 1.3 To increase average weekly earnings £390 (2005) £496 £634 1.4 To increase the number of those in 14.8% (2004/05) 26% 34.6% employment with level 4+ skills Education, Learning and Skills 2.1 To increase the attainment rate 43.1% (2004/05) 64% 64% at Key Stage 4 (% of pupils achieving 5 GCSEs at grades A*-C) 2.2 To increase the proportion of the 47.2% (2004/05) 59.3% 67.5% working age population with level 2+ qualifications 2.3 To reduce the proportion of 16-18 15.5% (2004) To be determined To be determined year olds not in education, training or employment Quality of Life 3.1 To reduce the crime 151 per 1,000 80 per 1,000 54.3 per 1,000 rate within the city 3.2 To increase the life expectancy 73.7/79.4 78.9/82.2 78.6/82.2 of both males and females (years) 3.3 100% of social sector housing will 44.6% 100% 100% reach the Decent Homes Standard 3.4 To improve residents feeling of 89% day To be determined To be determined safety in their neighbourhoods 61% night 3.5 The percentage of residents Local survey Local survey N/A surveyed satisfied with their neighbourhood as a place to live 3.6 The percentage of people Local survey Local survey N/A surveyed who feel that their local area is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together 3.7 The percentage of people surveyed Local survey Local survey N/A who feel they can influence decisions affecting their area

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Support from the East Riding of Yorkshire Council • OBJECTIVES: how well does it fit with includes: Gateway’s vision and objectives, and what impact will it have on the housing market? • complementary approaches to the managed Will it release other development release of housing land across the area; opportunities and how well does it fit with other strategies? • a joint approach with Hull to promoting economic development opportunities through • AFFORDABILITY: does the scheme offer the City Region Development Programme and excellent value for money? How well does it other means. lever in private finance and offer useable longer term land and property value appreciation, as well as aligning with other 5.4 STRATEGIC OUTCOMES public sector investment?

For each of our strategic core objectives, we have • DELIVERABILITY: are the proposals well identified two or more strategic outcomes which advanced and is there market interest? What are capable of being measured. This gives us the is the delivery mechanism, and are people MEASURE • % properties in Council Tax band A • Upper 20% house prices compared to means to assess progress at a strategic level, that and money earmarked? Have physical and is at a level above that of spend and outputs. In procedural barriers been addressed? this way we will be able to see how far the • SUPPORT: is there local community capacity housing market has improved (or not), so we can and empowerment, and is there community refine our strategy and delivery programme as and political support? need be. LINKING HOUSING INTERVENTIONS AND The strategic outcomes and measures are set out ECONOMIC DRIVERS in Table 7. A more detailed paper providing baseline measures and targets is at supporting From the Western Gateway and NaSA in the west, document 2. through the inner core, the waterfront and the city centre, stretching out through the Hedon Headline outcomes by 2020 are that we will have Road employment zone to the port in the east achieved 7,645 newbuild 3,325 refurbishments there is an axis of regeneration. Along this axis and 9,100 demolitions with an expected reduction will take place the greatest concentration of in properties in Council Tax band A from 71% to regeneration activity bringing major physical just over 60% and reduction in long term vacancy change, new jobs and wealth creating activity from 3.3% to around the national average of (see map 8). 1.5%. Targets for each measure are being finalised with some baseline work outstanding. Our earliest priority is NaSA which links with the city c